Author Topic: Predictions 2019  (Read 10966 times)

Offline scienceguy

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Predictions 2019
« on: 11/12/2018 03:51 pm »
So I'm starting this thread rather early but I'm itching to list my predictions.
Besides, today's a holiday and I'm hoping to have interesting stuff to read.

2018 thread:  https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44307

Predictions for spaceflight for 2019

SpaceX will reach orbit at least 12 times with Falcon 9 and at least twice with Falcon Heavy

The SpaceX circumlunar tourist flight will make headlines again

SLS, Orion and JWST will all continue to be money pits but will all keep going nonetheless

At least 2 exomoons will be confirmed

At least 2 more “earth analogues”, or earth-size planets in the habitable zone will be found, both within 40 light years

NASA’s InSight lander will find evidence of liquid water where it drills

NASA’s Curiosity rover will find more evidence of organic compounds

NASA’s TESS will detect exactly a whole bunch of planets

Blue Origin will take people into space before the end of the year

SpaceX will start delivering commercial crew to the ISS


edit: adjusted a couple of predictions
edit again: adjusted prediction for number of SpaceX flights because of the number on the schedule
edit(Lar): Put link to 2018 thread in this header post
« Last Edit: 12/17/2018 04:18 am by Lar »
e^(pi*i) = -1

Offline Darkseraph

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #1 on: 11/12/2018 05:51 pm »
SpaceX

- SpaceX will launch 24 times
- 2 Falcon Heavies
- A Falcon rocket will have a launch failure
- Mini-BFR (Falcon 2nd Stage) will evolve to be a fully fledged S2 replacement
- SpaceX will announce their intent to do cradle landing tests with a used F9 stage in Texas
- The Falcon failure will cause a delay in flights for the rest of the year and delay Dragon Crewed Mission
- The first test flights of BFS will happen in Q4
- Fairing recovery will be abandoned
- The scope and capabilities of BFR will be downsized after missing out on Air Force development contract
- BFR missions to Mars will be delayed by 2 years
- Falcon 9 is picked as launch vehicle for at least one NASA funded lunar mission
- Starlink will be downsized from current plans
- Composite Tanks will be an "upgrade" path for future versions of BFR
- Musk will hint at future versions of BFR that match or exceed ITS in scale and capability
- The name of BFR will change again from "Starship/Super Heavy" to something else

Blue Origin

- New Shepard will fly people in Q2
- New Shepard will have 8 flights during the year
- Parts of the first New Glenn rocket will be revealed with pics
- Blue Origin will reveal their design for a reusable second stage
- More technical details of Blue Moon will be revealed
- After the first successful human flight, Blue Origin reveals the concept for their first orbital passenger craft
- Blue/Amazon reveal a plan for a Starlink style constellation or partner to launch a rival constellation
- In an interview, the size and scale of New Armstrong are hinted at and it will be ITS sized or bigger.


ULA
- The first flight hardware from Vulcan will be revealed
- ACES will be brought forward because of NASA new focus on the Moon
- Lockheed and Boeing will pursue the development of RLV technologies outside of ULA

NASA/US
- Another year of flawless missions
- InSight finds something unexpected that changes our views on Mars
- An exomoon is confirmed
- Planet 9 and 10 are found
- Curiosity dies on Mars unexpectedly, months are spent trying to revive it
- SLS has a new delay of 6 months
- Despite that Congress increases its funding
- Another object like Omuamua is discovered
- Europa lander is cancelled, Europa clipper receives less funding.
- Hubble spontaneously fails
- More Astronauts from the Apollo era will unfortunately pass away
- The Gateway will survive the year
- SLS will get a better name in a public contest
- The Space Force is dead on arrival with the new Congress
- A serious safety incident aboard the ISS will occur

Russia
- Two launch failures
- Nauka delayed till 2020
- U.S Congress pushes faster to get off Soyuz, depriving Russia of lucrative funds
- A deal is worked out to sell RD-180s to China
- Russia reveals a design for a reusable rocket, more for the purpose of controlling debris from launches
than for cost savings
- A cash strapped Russian space agency attempts to partner with emerging countries to develop their access to space, to the annoyance of the U.S which will still be trying to prevent proliferation of missile
tech

Japan

- Japan will launch at least six times, successfully
- More space startups will emerge from Japan, with a change in government policy as well
- The government will make a push for reusable technology in the future, post H3
- Japan will announce how it intends to cooperate on the Gateway station, probably with a lander.

Europe

- More countries will join ESA
- ESA will accelerate reusability research with an increased budget
- EU/ESA will change policy to encourage more space startups to exist
- All missions flown by Arianespace will be successful
- A buy European clause for launch will be enforced
- Europe will refloat the idea of an indigenous human capsule/plane after the Soyuz accident of the previous year and because austerity programs will be ending in most countries
- Using Proton for Exomars will be reopened due to failures in Russian industry


Commercial Space

- RocketLab fly 8 more times with one failure
- A larger successor to Electron is revealed, powered by methalox
- At least one new startup reveals plans for a reusable small sat launcher
- One or two asteroid mining ventures fold
- First commercial landing on the moon is a failure
- At least one new startup is founded on the idea of providing propellant depots
- Vector reaches orbit by the end of the year
- Virgin Orbit reaches orbit on their first try
- Space Adventures teams up with SpaceX and Boeing to sell seats to the ISS
- Masten raise a lot of money and reveal plans for their lunar lander and launch vehicle

China

-35 flights, all successful
- More Chinese space startups emerge
- Astronauts are named for first CSS mission
- After a successful test of a full scale capsule, China has a public unveil of its future human capsule
- Two Chinese launch startups reach orbit
- Hypersonic missile tests worry the world, but particularly the U.S after a test successfully hits a drone target in the Pacific ocean in minutes
- Plans for other countries to add equipment and modules to the CSS emerge

Other countries

- Sanctions have the opposite effect and Iran accelerates its launch program, reaching LEO twice in a year
- North Korea test launches ballistic missiles capable of re-entry after relations with U.S devolve
- Turkey reveals details of its first domestic launcher
- One African country unveils plans for a microsat launch vehicle
- Kenya and China entertain the idea of building facilities for Chinese launch vehicles from the equator as part of OBOR
- Brazil makes a deal with the U.S to allow U.S launch vehicles fly from there
- Saudi Arabia increases investment in spaceflight
 


 

« Last Edit: 12/21/2018 02:48 pm by Darkseraph »
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." R.P.Feynman

Offline Slarty1080

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #2 on: 11/13/2018 10:54 am »
SpaceX will conduct multiple BFS prototype launches culminating in a near orbital flight at the end of the year.
There will be further changes to the BFR but nothing substantial
The first words spoken on Mars: "Humans have been wondering if there was any life on the planet Mars for many decades … well ... there is now!"

Offline woods170

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #3 on: 11/13/2018 11:24 am »
I predict that before 2019 is out there will be a predictions thread for 2020.









(Easy win. I did exactly the same thing last year)


((And yes: I am ridiculing these prediction threads))
« Last Edit: 11/13/2018 11:26 am by woods170 »

Online ZachS09

Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #4 on: 11/13/2018 02:05 pm »
Ready to hear my annual ten predictions? If so, then let's get started.

#1: The Falcon Heavy successfully completes the Arabsat 6A and STP-2 missions with all six boosters (the side cores and the center cores) landing safely at Cape Canaveral and on the drone ship.

#2: SpaceX launches 20 missions due to the fact that they cleared their backlog in the past and fewer customers opt to fly on the Falcon rockets.

#3: United Launch Alliance launches both the Starliner Orbital Flight Test and Crewed Flight Test within 2019; however, there is a partial failure during the Crewed Flight Test in which the RL-10 engines shutdown prematurely, but the spacecraft's engines push it into a good orbit. Meanwhile, SpaceX successfully launches both their Crew Dragon Orbital Flight Test and Crewed Flight Test missions. Both of those spacecrafts do not suffer any type of failure whatsoever.

#4: Arianespace launches twelve missions: five Ariane 5 rockets, three Soyuz rockets, and four Vega rockets including the maiden Vega-C mission.

#5: Aleksei Ovchinin and Nick Hague each get to make a second attempt to launch to the International Space Station; Hague goes first on Soyuz-MS 12 while Ovchinin goes on Soyuz-MS 14, replacing one of the Russian cosmonauts.

#6: China launches their Long March 5 rocket on three consecutive successful flights: the RTF in January, a test launch of the Long March 5B, and the Chang'e 5 lunar sample return mission.

#7: Hayabusa 2 successfully fires its ion engines to begin its journey back to Earth, having collected a good amount of samples from the Ryugu asteroid.

#8: OSIRIS-REx picks the best spot on the Bennu asteroid to collect its own samples and begins a dress rehearsal for the sample-return procedure, but telemetry is lost for a long period of time, causing mission controllers to initially believe the spacecraft suffered some sort of failure until the signal is picked up again before they declare the mission over.

#9: ISRO finally launches their Chandrayaan 2 mission to the Moon, but I still think that even though the lander/rover lands successfully, it'll stop transmitting after a few hours due to an unknown problem. This prediction carries over from my 2018 predictions due to this mission being delayed until 2019.

#10: Rocket Lab's Electron rocket makes 25 flights; 30% of which launch from the Wallops Flight Facility.
« Last Edit: 12/18/2018 04:36 am by ZachS09 »
Because the Falcon Heavy Test Flight was successful, it has inspired thousands of people to consider changing the future of space travel.

Offline Lar

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #5 on: 11/13/2018 03:05 pm »
((And yes: I am ridiculing these prediction threads))
Love you man, you're the best.... but if you don't like prediction threads, don't read them. No need to mock. That said, I LOLed.
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Offline Rhamphorhynchan

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #6 on: 11/13/2018 03:38 pm »
New Shepard flies crew shortly before Falcon 9. Bezos tweets "Welcome to the club" at Musk when Dragon 2 docks with the ISS.

Offline Apollo-phill

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #7 on: 11/13/2018 03:43 pm »
I safely predict we will see the 50th anniversary of the first human beings being landed onto the Moons surface then returned safely to Earth i.e. Apollo-11 😂😂

But, do not forget the other Apollo missions whose 50th anniversary it is too -  Apollo 9, Apollo 10 and Apollo 12.😊

Apollo-phill


Offline jak Kennedy

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #8 on: 11/13/2018 04:01 pm »
Stratolaunch complete full speed taxi tests.

Branson announces Spaceship 2 is days away from launching passengers and he is now weeks away from being a passenger.

More seriously I think in H2 of 2019 SpaceX will be launching their satellites and I am ready to buy a receiver.

NASA runs out of reasons to delay Dragon2 crew test as Boeing delays their crew test to 2020.

SLS is delayed again, but that is more a reality than prediction.

Musk posts another tweet about mini BFS and NSF forum crashes the internet.

Due to SLS delays NASA organizes a race between

Online freddo411

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #9 on: 11/13/2018 09:24 pm »

* JWST does not launch in 2019.

* SLS does not launch in 2019.

* Full scale BFS or BFR does not launch or hop in 2019. (Hope I'm wrong on this one)

* Blue Origin does not launch an orbital rocket in 2019.

* 47 years after the Apollo program, no human will have gone beyond LEO.


* Falcon Heavy flies again

* Crew Dragon flies at least once

* Falcon 9 ends with 4x as many flights in 2019 as Atlas V, putting it just behind the total number of flights.

* SpaceX wins (slightly) more Air Force contracts than ULA

* A F9 S1 will fly on it's forth flight.   AND, also, it's fifth flight.

* Starlink satellites #3 thru ?? will reach orbit.

* Boeing flies an unmanned Starliner

* Rocket lab flies to orbit at least 3 times

* Another small sat launcher flies successfully to orbit

* A small sat launcher fails to achieve an attempted orbital flight .

* New Sheppard flies with at least one person, sub-orbitally.

* A Russian rocket or spacecraft suffers a significant problem

* A European speaks out (again) against "subsidies" for SpaceX from the US government

* A European asks for (more) subsidies for Ariane from European states.


Offline FishInferno

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #10 on: 11/14/2018 12:40 am »
Dragon 2 launches crew before the end of the year.

Starliner flies its unmanned mission, but crew delayed to 2020.

Images of the BFR test hopper are released with promises to fly soon, but it doesn't fly before the year ends.

Mini-BFS test article is just a test article and not a reusable upper stage, flies in Q3 2019.

Starlink begins deployment in Q3 but not fast enough to begin service in 2020.

Elon Musk gets into more PR trouble over Tesla, possibly outed as CEO.

The Boring Company opens their Hawthorne tunnel in January to much fanfare, gains contracts to extend the system across LA. Some more chatter about boring tech being used on Mars.

100% success rate of Falcon launches and landings.

USAF expresses interest in BFR but no public deal is made.

No architecture-level changes to BFR but the design continues to mature.

SLS and Orion continue to be delayed per usual.

At some press event, a NASA official will be cornered into acknowledging BFR and comparing it to SLS, will make a flimsy excuse as to why SLS is needed.

SpaceX continues to talk with other companies (Caterpillar, John Deer, etc.) about helping with Mars colonization efforts. Elon Musk makes an offhand tweet about Tesla supplying batteries/solar panels.

NASA outlines the requirements for commercial cargo to DSG; says winners will be selected in 2021.

New Shepard launches crew; if it's before SpaceX Jeff Bezos gives them hell.

Blue Origin unveils more details of Blue Moon, will use a BFR-style ship on top of New Glenn. Crew capacity ~20.

Virgin Orbit flies successfully, Galactic still gets nowhere.

Rocketlab has a 100% success rate.

Vulcan trudges along, but as New Glenn makes progress Vulcan's viability becomes more and more uncertain.

Stratolaunch goes under.

Arianespace still has their head in the sand over Ariane 6/reusability.
« Last Edit: 11/16/2018 04:59 pm by FishInferno »
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Online IanThePineapple

Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #11 on: 11/14/2018 01:53 am »
My thoughts (I really overdid this...):

NASA:
- More SLS/Orion issues, but nothing huge. Stays in 2021 (maybe shifting a few months), and seems to be on track. EM-2 slips a small amount.
- Core Stage 1 finished, ships to Stennis and does at least a few fueling tests, potentially the full test-fire
- Europa Clipper faces uncertainty in Congress in early 2019, but ultimately continues with development and early assembly in late 2019.
- New Horizons flies by Ultima Thule successfully, no major issues. Ultima is found to be a dual-lobe KBO, not two separate bodies.
- OSIRIS-REX is in orbit around Bennu, sending back heaps of data. Encounters some minor issues, but nothing major.
- JWST stays on track for 2021
- WFIRST continues development despite uncertain future
- CEASAR (comet sample return) is chosen for New Frontiers 4 because of huge uncertainty with Dragonfly (Titan drone)
- Voyager 2 reaches interstellar space in early 2019
- ISS gets officially extended to 2028, with option for 2030 extension. NASA and/or ROSCOSMOS begin investigating if it can go further, potentially including solar array replacement/refurbishment.
- LOP-G begins serious development, Power and Propulsion Module assembly contract(s) gets awarded. Russia, Europe and Japan officially announce their own module(s).
- Opportunity declared dead, Curiosity continues perfectly.
- InSight begins sending back troves of data, mission managers announce major discovery in mid/late 2019.
- Kepler data analysis continues, more minor or even major discoveries announced.
- JunoCam stops working, as expected (though it has lasted much longer than expected)
- Budget stays about the same as 2018, higher than usual.
- SLS ML-2 contract awarded, basic construction starts.
- NASA seriously considers converting HB-1 in the VAB For SLS Block IB.

SpaceX
- 18 F9 launches, 2 FH
- FH gets a few more commercial mission contracts, and the first DoD/NRO payload(s) are awarded.
- Falcon 9 continues flying, Block 5 shows its potential in rapid reuse.
- DM-1 flies in mid-Jan, and is successful.
- DM-2 flies in July, successful as well.
- First operational Crew Dragon mission gets pushed to early 2020
- At least 1 booster fails to land
- In-Flight Abort test completed, booster does not successfully return, capsule works near-perfectly.
- BFS Grasshopper revealed. Nearly identical in shape/size, but only 3 or 5 Raptor engines. Ships to Brownsville in late 2019, may have a fuel loading test or two, maybe even a static fire. No hop tests.
- Slight changes to BFR design, but the design is mostly frozen.
- One more Starlink demo flight, 2-5 sats.
- Starlink launches begin in mid-2019, with <10 sats per launch on initial flights. Satellites work well, and SpaceX announces more details on Starlink (specific connection speeds, latency, and maybe pricing). Ground stations and consumer receivers shown off.
- No contracts awarded for BFR, but NASA and potentially DoD speak of interest in using BFR (likely in some press conference when asked).
- Mars landings still aimed for 2022/2024, with those dates becoming more and more unlikely.
- Minor failure/anomaly/issue in launch or testing, does not negatively affect outcome of flight.

Other US:
- Rocket Lab ramps up launch rate dramatically.
- LC-2 completed in Q4, begins launches in late Q4.
- Vulcan development continues, dual-BE-4 testing begins, pics of first tanks and/or stages are released
- New Shepard starts crewed flights in Q2, passenger flights in Q4
- New Glenn continues, with factory beginning production and LC-36 nearly finished. Potential first stage static fire at the end of the year.
- New Armstrong details revealed, no full unveil yet.
- OmegA ground work begins at KSC, with MLP-2 and HB-2 modifications beginning in Q2
- OmegA stage static fires begin and show good results
- Stratolaunch has first plane flight tests
- Virgin Galactic VSS Unity reaches space, may begin passenger flights in late 2019. Cosmic Girl & Launcher One have first orbital flight.
- At least one US rocket failure

Misc. International:
- Hayabusa-2 continuing operations at Ryugu, takes several samples before leaving orbit for Earth.
- Ariane 5 continues working well, Ariane 6 development continues.
- Soyuz continues rebuilding its record of reliability
- Chinese Modular Station work continues, international partners join in.
- At least one Chinese rocket failure, no injuries/fatalities.
« Last Edit: 11/14/2018 01:53 am by IanThePineapple »

Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #12 on: 11/14/2018 03:35 am »
SpaceX will get an unmanned Dragon 2 to the ISS.

Boeing and ULA will get an unmanned CST-100 to the ISS.

One of the CCDev companies will get astronauts to the ISS.

At least one of the Luna CATALYST companies will issue a video showing a prototype lunar lander flying on the Earth.

Offline Mr. Scott

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #13 on: 11/14/2018 04:40 am »
1. Every stupid idea returns in cycles of seven years.  So 2019 will be the reemergence of SSTO using liquid hydrogen fuel.
2. JWST renamed to PorkScopeAlpha.
3. Elon Musk decides to reinvent currency, except it is standardized by something that will take 1000 years to produce.
4. Insight lander crash lands on top of giant petrified tortoise on Mars.
5. Apollo 50th anniversary announcement is a reinactment of the 40th anniversary, which was a reinactment of the 30th anniversary.
6. Buzz designs a new T-shirt to halt Trump’s moon programs, and just go to Mars.
7. Jupiter finally explodes like in the movie 2010
8. Collier trophy: Urban Air Mobility concept by Uber.
9. Discovery that 99.6% of all exoplanets are really just Oort Cloud objects near our Solar System.
10. NASA successfully lands six astronauts on Mars.
11. Sandy Magnus, NASA Administrator
12. ISS is handed over to Star Fleet, given photon torpedos to battle asteroids and other debris.
13. Portable Nuclear Fusion baselined for all future manned missions.
14. New cargo aircraft and new airport runways designed to haul 10 meter diameter payloads for SLS Block II.
15. Star Wars maxes out at #2 movie for month of December.  Poor attendance bankrupts Disney.  Mickey Mouse traded to the Los Angeles Lakers to get LeBron happy again.  LeBron starts a new space company after realizing he can play better basketball on the Moon.
16. The moon explodes and escapes Earth’s orbit.  A crew on a lunar base figures out how to steer the moon’s trajectory and drive it around the solar system.  (Three words... Pyr. A. Mid.)
17. Congress decides to cut funding by increasing the budget. 


« Last Edit: 11/14/2018 04:45 am by Mr. Scott »
Don’t Panic

Offline p51

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #14 on: 11/14/2018 06:09 pm »
My two major predictions:
1. SLS/Orion will get pushed back another year, with NASA saying sometime in the mid 2020s for the first test flight. All bets will be off for any other SLS ever to fly
2. Space Tourism will still be pushed as being, "In the future" but with no dates given or hardware getting close to actually carrying people into space
I feel very confident in these predictions...  ;)
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Online freddo411

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #15 on: 11/14/2018 08:03 pm »

...
2. Space Tourism will still be pushed as being, "In the future" but with no dates given or hardware getting close to actually carrying people into space
I feel very confident in these predictions...  ;)

Thoughts and Questions:

* Would New Sheppard flying tourists negate your prediction?

* Will we see Russian passengers on Soyuz in 2019, and do they count?

* Yeah, you are mostly right.  But #DearMoon is a thing but it won't be flying for years.

Offline FinalFrontier

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #16 on: 11/14/2018 08:19 pm »
SLS will be threatened in the house, there will be the beginnings of a movement to cancel the program. No actual cancellation will happen until after the outcome of the 2020 general.

SpaceX will launch at least one FH mission. Commercial crew will go online before the year is over, not clear who will be first.

Mini BFS will be a flight test vehicle only, and may launch once or twice at most.

Full scale BFS flight test hops will slip to 2020.

Blue Origin will attempt to launch test crews no paying customers.

Vulcan will get through major design and some test milestones.

SLS will slip by another 12 months.
« Last Edit: 11/14/2018 08:20 pm by FinalFrontier »
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Offline p51

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #17 on: 11/14/2018 10:48 pm »

...
2. Space Tourism will still be pushed as being, "In the future" but with no dates given or hardware getting close to actually carrying people into space
I feel very confident in these predictions...  ;)

Thoughts and Questions:

* Would New Sheppard flying tourists negate your prediction?

* Will we see Russian passengers on Soyuz in 2019, and do they count?

* Yeah, you are mostly right.  But #DearMoon is a thing but it won't be flying for years.
You really think Blue Origin is going to be flying people into space next year? Maybe you know something I don't (which is very likely) but I wouldn't bet a buck on that happening next year.
As for Soyuz, I was just talking about commercial ventures. Yeah, of course, the Russians can (and likely will) send people to space for money. Thanks for bringing that up as I wasn't even think of that when I wrote that, and I should have said from commercial ventures.
"The years forever fashion new dreams when old ones go. God pity a one-dream man."
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Online freddo411

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #18 on: 11/14/2018 11:13 pm »

...
2. Space Tourism will still be pushed as being, "In the future" but with no dates given or hardware getting close to actually carrying people into space
I feel very confident in these predictions...  ;)

Thoughts and Questions:

* Would New Sheppard flying tourists negate your prediction?

You really think Blue Origin is going to be flying people into space next year? Maybe you know something I don't (which is very likely) but I wouldn't bet a buck on that happening next year.

...

Nah, I would not bet on it either.   They have flown their rocket several times, so there is that.  And they have a fancy website ....  kidding.   

I think that they have the capability, but will the lawyers deem the risks small enough?

Offline p51

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #19 on: 11/14/2018 11:28 pm »
I think that they have the capability, but will the lawyers deem the risks small enough?
DING DING DING!
You hit it on the head.
I, too, think we'd have had space tourism by now commercially if the lawyers didn't keep the brakes locked on the idea right now until they're sure it'll be liability free.
"The years forever fashion new dreams when old ones go. God pity a one-dream man."
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Offline Bubbinski

Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #20 on: 12/01/2018 04:33 am »
Okay here goes:

- Geopolitical tensions come to a head like I thought they would this year. A “Cuban missile crisis” event overshadows DM-2 and Christmas/New Year’s, the idea of a Space Force gets big boost because of this, war drums ring in 2020, will severely disrupt the scheduled flights of Western satellites and astronauts flying aboard Russian rockets

- SpaceX flies 20 F9/FH launches next year, all successfully

- SpaceIL lander launched by SX lands successfully on Moon. By end of year more private lunar missions are on their way to the launch pad

- Elon Musk dials back his more “out there” antics, i.e. no more pot smoking on podcasts, etc., presents a more business-like demeanor

- BFS/Starship test prototype unveiled and transported to Boca Chica but no flights before end of year, close though

- Elon announces another customer for a human passenger Starship flight

- DM-1 successfully flies in June, DM-2 successfully flies with crew just two weeks before Christmas 2019

- Boeing Starliner uncrewed flight flies in November, crewed flight pushed into mid-2020

- One US orbital launch failure, probably involving a smaller launcher (Pegasus/Virgin Orbit/Vector, etc.) Big players are successful

- Electron flies 10 times with one anomaly, the Wallops pad is on line at end of year

- New Shepard FINALLY puts people over the Karman line, space tourist flights finally start

- Virgin Galactic puts people above USAF space line at 50 miles, one lightly loaded flight goes past Karman line

- Stratolaunch plane makes first flight, does Pegasus captive carry flight before end of 2019

- New Horizons flies past Ultima Thule and mission makes remarkable discovery regarding Kuiper Belt, Ultima Thule flyby shocks even veteran space observers with what it discovers

- InSight’s mole makes it down 16 feet and discovers habitable environment. Follow on plans made for an Insight 2 probe with ability to search for life underground

- TESS discovers system with possible Earth-like planet around a bright nearby star

- CHEOPS launches successfully and starts its exoplanet discovery mission

- First exomoon finally confirmed

- Another exoplanet found to have a Saturn style ring system

- Planet 9 confirmed, Planet 10 theorized in same manner as Planet 9 was

- Chandrayaan lunar mission flies successfully

- Chang’e 5 Chinese lunar mission delayed to 2020 after rocket and spacecraft issues

- Arianespace successfully flies all missions as do Japanese. Russians and Chinese suffer a few launch failures/partial failures, though none on crewed flights

- Soyuz crew capsule flies successfully during its missions

- Russians don’t fly Nauka

- SLS first flight officially announced for 2021. Toward the end of the year the SLS program finally gets on track toward its new launch date with more optimism about meeting it, even as Congress whispers about possibly cancelling it.

- By the end of the year JWST starts to overcome its problems, its 2021 launch date looks solid

- Europa lander shelved but Europa Clipper on solid footing toward 2022-24 launch

- Dragonfly picked as New Frontiers mission

- First mission under new commercial Moon initiative approved, funded, and given launch date at end of year

- Opportunity phones home early in 2019 and mission continues

- Curiosity makes a discovery that reignites debate about present Martian life

- Parker Solar Probe makes discovery about sun that dramatically improves CME/solar flare predictions

- There will be a supernova visible to the naked eye in the night sky sometime in 2019

- I will finish at least one space related model

- I will attend at least one test firing in Promontory, though no launch trips because I will be in transition from my current job
« Last Edit: 12/01/2018 04:57 am by Bubbinski »
I'll even excitedly look forward to "flags and footprints" and suborbital missions. Just fly...somewhere.

Offline Star One

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Predictions 2019
« Reply #21 on: 12/01/2018 05:20 pm »
NASA and Breakthrough should have preliminary project requirements by June 2019 for their Enceladus mission. Provide a mission concept review later in the year, and arrive at a key decision point by next December.

Not really predictions by me as they are from New Scientist’s article on the proposed mission.
« Last Edit: 12/01/2018 05:24 pm by Star One »

Offline Ludus

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #22 on: 12/03/2018 04:33 am »

...
2. Space Tourism will still be pushed as being, "In the future" but with no dates given or hardware getting close to actually carrying people into space
I feel very confident in these predictions...  ;)

Thoughts and Questions:

* Would New Sheppard flying tourists negate your prediction?

You really think Blue Origin is going to be flying people into space next year? Maybe you know something I don't (which is very likely) but I wouldn't bet a buck on that happening next year.

...

Nah, I would not bet on it either.   They have flown their rocket several times, so there is that.  And they have a fancy website ....  kidding.   

I think that they have the capability, but will the lawyers deem the risks small enough?

I don’t see the evidence that they really have the capability to do what the business model calls for, launch at least once a week continuously. Before they launch paying customers I’d expect to see the thing launching on a weekly basis for at least a few months with employees aboard. A handful of widely spaced test flights doesn’t build confidence that this is a proven system.

Offline scienceguy

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #23 on: 12/10/2018 05:05 pm »
- Voyager 2 reaches interstellar space in early 2019

This happened sooner than you thought!

https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-s-voyager-2-probe-enters-interstellar-space
e^(pi*i) = -1

Offline AS_501

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #24 on: 12/10/2018 05:18 pm »
ISS takes an orbital debris hit audible to the crew, but no hull breach or depressurization.

Offline Oumuamua

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #25 on: 12/14/2018 10:19 pm »
- Voyager 2 reaches interstellar space in early 2019

This happened sooner than you thought!

https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-s-voyager-2-probe-enters-interstellar-space

Don't worry! it can leave the solar system again in 2019.
Relevant xkcd link for voyager 1:



https://xkcd.com/1189/

Online freddo411

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #26 on: 12/14/2018 11:49 pm »
- Voyager 2 reaches interstellar space in early 2019

This happened sooner than you thought!

https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-s-voyager-2-probe-enters-interstellar-space

Don't worry! it can leave the solar system again in 2019.
Relevant xkcd link for voyager 1:



https://xkcd.com/1189/

Also waiting to hear that Insight has "discovered" water on Mars.

Offline Lar

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #27 on: 12/17/2018 04:33 am »
My predictions for 2019... somewhat rehashed from 2018

2018:
  -- guesses: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44307.msg1759927#msg1759927
  -- results: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44307.msg1888676#msg1888676

- SpaceX will not lose any payloads this year and will end the year with a robust flight cadence.  (I guessed 30 in the poll again, that's probably high but 15+ would be a win for this prediction)
- SpaceX will launch less than 6 missions with expendable cores (up from last year's prediction of 3 or less)
- SpaceX will recover at least 90% of the cores they attempt to recover (they missed 95% which was my prediction, so being more conservative)
- FH will launch at least twice, at least once with mission success but not all cores will necessarily be recovered
- Boca Chica will not launch anything orbital in 2019 but progress will be made and there will be suborbital hops (revised from last year)
- There will be revisions to various paperwork, or legislative action, to increase allowable flight cadence at BC (new)
- We'll see a testbed vehicle using Raptors to reduce BFS risk unveiled and something will fly from BC
- CommsX constellation will see at least another 10 test satellites launched (rideshare or dedicated mission)
- TBC will win at least one additional major infrastructure project and start serious tunneling on more than one project. Good progress on Dodger Stadium link, if not actually completed.
- Skeptics will continue to deny that TBC is doing anything special and doubt the speedups
- Dragon 2 will enter service, or at least trials, including with passengers (repeat of last year)
- Tesla will unveil a rover prototype (repeat of last year)
- SpaceX will solve fairing recovery and at least 40% of recoverable fairings will be recovered via either catching or fishing them out. At least 1 fairing half will be reused successfully.
- We will see at least one more radical change in BFS/Starship/SuperHeavy configuration
- There will be at least one more name change of one or the other or both elements in 2019
- Some non flight elements of the Mars plan will be revealed (ISRU, Habs, a rover or crane, etc)

- Starliner will not launch any passengers in 2019 (but Dragon 2 will, see above)

- ULA will get closer to ACES but won't be all the way there (threepeat)
- ULA will launch at least one IVF experiment on a Centaur (threepeat)
- ULA will remain in denial about reuse even as SpaceX eats their lunch (repeat, and kind of a gimme)

- Blue will launch New Shepard at least 6 times, some with paying cargo. and some with humans, but possibly not for pay.
- Blue will unveil a New Glenn vehicle of some sort (fit test, static test article, etc) and make progress on their pad. (repeat)
- Jeff Bezos will make at least one snarky and patently false comment about SpaceX, or will be snarky instead of congratulatory when SpaceX does something historic (repeat)
- Blue will continue to be way less open than SpaceX (repeat, gimme)

- SLS will not be cancelled but will slip in some way... (repeat, gimme)
- The Lunar Gateway will plod onwards, drawing lots of OldSpace interest like flies to honey but won't have a defined mission that actually makes engineering or technical sense. (gimme)

- Rocketlabs Electron will launch at least 8 times. At least six launches will be a success.

- VG WILL launch paying passengers in 2019
- VO will have a successful test launch from Cosmic Girl
- Stratolaunch's Roc will progress from taxi tests to have independent flight, and captive carry tests as well, but no launch of Pegasus or anything else.

- There will be a shakeout in the smallsat launcher biz. At least one of Vector/Firefly won't launch anything and at least one startup in existence at the start of 2019 will exit by the end of 2019
- XCOR won't come back from the dead, sadly

- Some private entity will succeed in landing their lander on the moon (possibly SpaceIL).

- NSF will debut a new look and many people will whinge about it (repeat, gimme)
- Tapatalk signatures will continue to plague forum posts (repeat, gimme)
« Last Edit: 12/20/2018 11:47 pm by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online saliva_sweet

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #28 on: 12/20/2018 08:22 pm »
- Elon Musk will show Jim Cantrell how business is done by selling a repurposed watertower (it will even vent lox) to investors for billions of additional capital.

- Insight seismometer will work and return interesting data, but exposes the inadequacy of the mission design. Proper mars seismometry mission with multiple landers will be included in the next decadal survey.

- Vulcan will continue to progress at a glacial pace (no visible progress will happen) even compared to SLS.

- SLS will make pregress, but fundamental design issues in the engine section mean years of additional delays.

Online Gliderflyer

Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #29 on: 12/20/2018 08:43 pm »
- VO will have a successful test launch from Roc
Fairly confident that is not in the plans, but I'd pay to see a LauncherOne and Pegasus drag race. :)
I tried it at home

Offline Lar

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #30 on: 12/20/2018 11:41 pm »
- VO will have a successful test launch from Roc
Fairly confident that is not in the plans, but I'd pay to see a LauncherOne and Pegasus drag race. :)
LOL that was a slip. It's not 2019 yet so I'm going to fix that. But leaving this here as acknowledgment of my flub, er.. mashup.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online Gliderflyer

Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #31 on: 12/21/2018 12:05 am »
- VO will have a successful test launch from Roc
Fairly confident that is not in the plans, but I'd pay to see a LauncherOne and Pegasus drag race. :)
LOL that was a slip. It's not 2019 yet so I'm going to fix that. But leaving this here as acknowledgment of my flub, er.. mashup.
Of course, now that you have changed it, it will defy all odds and actually happen.
I tried it at home

Offline spaceman100

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #32 on: 12/21/2018 03:12 pm »
I predict that an enigmatic multibillionaire will build an SSTO capable rocket sled system into the Rockies in 2019.

Also in 2019 an expedition will be commanded to explore and visit the moon of Jupiter called...EUROPA !

It takes 2 years to do the expedition, maybe starting early as 2035.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europa_(moon)

No only has in oxygen to breath, but water and hydrogen too.

----

Also a constant small scale rocket sled launch company will start "everyman " space flights.

World will also see a fourth manned spaceflight capable nation.
« Last Edit: 12/23/2018 05:58 pm by spaceman100 »

Offline chairman888

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #33 on: 12/21/2018 04:05 pm »
Surprised that this hasn't been mentioned:

Chang'e 4 will successfully land on the lunar far-side.   Rover ends up lasting longer than Chang'e 3's rover Yutu (Jade Rabbit).
« Last Edit: 12/21/2018 04:09 pm by chairman888 »

Offline Lar

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #34 on: 12/21/2018 08:31 pm »
Also in 2019 an expedition will be commanded to explore and visit the moon of Jupiter called...EUROPA !

It takes 2 years to do the expedition, maybe starting early as 2035.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europa_(moon)

No only has in oxygen to breath, but water and hydrogen too.
Please use the edit (modify) function on your posts.Edit all your predictions into one post. If you need to make corrections, edit that post, don't just reply. Thank you. (we haven't yet enforced one post per poster but we will if we have to)

Edit: I made your correction to the original post, then moved your second prediction into the original post.
« Last Edit: 12/22/2018 02:44 am by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Patchouli

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #35 on: 12/22/2018 02:22 am »
Spacex Dragon V2 visits ISS and they'll get closer to reaching 30 launches in one year the test article for Starship is revealed but it'll be more like Grasshopper than something close to the final design.

Virgin Galactic has more successful test flights and may carry it's first tourists at the end of the year while Virgin Orbit gets into space the first try.

The Boeing Starliner visits ISS.

SNC Dreamchaser flight prototype completed maybe a test flight at a the end of the year.

Masten Space reveals they have been working on a lunar lander along the lines of Xeus.

Blue Origin more flights of New Shepard New Glenn hardware shown.
They may announce they too will carry tourists on New Shepard.

Stratolaunch more tests of carrier aircraft and possible first flight.
Hardware for Karken shown.
More details on the Black ice space plane.

SLS and Orion will continue though the first flight may not happen until late 2020.
There's talk about possibly using Falcon Heavy, New Glenn or Vulcan for Orion missions instead.

Rocket lab launches 15 missions.

Russia will reveals they plan an RLV.

China Chang'e 4 lands  successfully and the rover is more successful.
They offer to buy RD-191s from Russia.

Japan Jaxa has 8 successful launches and a possible crew vehicle is announced.

Interstellar Technologies has a successful flight on their next try.

ESA ArianeGroup continues work on Ariane 6 as an expendable launcher while the  Prometheus engine and reusable vehicles based on it gain political traction.
« Last Edit: 12/22/2018 02:53 am by Patchouli »

Offline Star One

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Predictions 2019
« Reply #36 on: 12/22/2018 08:44 am »
Europa Clipper escapes from the SLS to be launched instead on a Falcon Heavy with a Star upper stage.

The Europa lander is formally cancelled.

The Enceladus mission moves ahead at Breakthrough with NASA assistance.

Planet Nine is finally observed.

The first Exomoon is confirmed.
« Last Edit: 12/22/2018 08:50 am by Star One »

Offline TakeOff

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #37 on: 12/23/2018 12:36 pm »
The Gatehell Moondoggle will be canceled by the new Congress and the president will make a show out of returning Americans to the surface of the Moon before the Chinese, using private American space companies in the American way to make America First on the Moon again. Without that "Oreo space raft capsicule" as the president has called it.
« Last Edit: 12/23/2018 12:40 pm by TakeOff »

Online Eric Hedman

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #38 on: 12/24/2018 06:21 am »
NASA planetary program
        Europa lander canceled.
                Doesn't make sense to design until Europa orbiter studies Europa in detail first.

Space Tourism
        Blue Origin
                Manned flights of New Shepard by end of Q2
                Jeff Bezos takes flight in Q3 to show customers ready
                Commercial flights with tourists start in Q4
        Virgin Galactic
                FUll duration burn and flight above Karman line in Q1
                Richard Branson takes flight in Q2
                First tourist flight in Q3

Commercial Crew
        Dragon
                Demo 1 test flight a success in January
                Demo 2 with crew on board flies by end of July
                One crew rotation flight by end of year
        CST-100
                Crewed test flight pushed to October and successful

Space Telescopes
        Hubble
                Fails for good in Q4
                New debate starts on what to replace with
        James Webb
                Another $250 million in overruns
                Launch delayed until 2022

SLS
        Vote in house to cancel - survives by one vote.
        Congress asks questions about alternatives

Orion
        After close vote in Congress saves SLS discussion of alternative launchers heats up
                Possibility of using New Glenn privately discussed between Lockheed and Blue Origin
                Discussion also with ULA about Vulcan ACES with refueling
        Discuss with ESA possibility of bigger service module with greater Delta-V
        Look at using ACES or Centaur as service module

SpaceX
        Falcon 9 perfect record - One first stage gets to its fifth flight
        Two Falcon Heavy launches
        Dragon - See above
        Starship
                Steady development, but slower than expected
                Quiet discussions with NASA about possible alternative to SLS - specific Senator blows his top

Blue Origin
        New Glenn
                First stage prototype built and fit checked on launch pad that is not done
                Second stage details emerge - future version will be refuelable
                Space capsule details begin to emerge
        New Moon Lander
                Details of cargo version will be made public

ULA
        All Atlas V and Delta VI launches successful
        Vulcan development accelerates since engine selection done
        Proposes Centaur as tug for three stage lunar lander 

Small Launchers
        Virgin Orbit
                Two successful launches
        Rocket Lab
                Continues to grow

Stratolauncher
        Continues to move forward with test flights of carrier aircraft
        Rocket development continues - no launches on 2019

Lunar landers
        NASA continues to push 3 stage lander that includes tug
        At least 6 companies will propose a detailed path to manned landers

ISS
        Extended to 2030
        Commercial take over not deemed viable

Gateway
        Becomes official program with marginal support
        Orbit up in the air as SLS/Orion draws heat from Congress
        NASA, ESA and JAXA commit to build modules
        Russia - talk but no agreement to contribute
        PPE contract awarded
        UAE, Israel, South Korea, and Australia engage wanting to be part of return to Moon
                 Commit to Contribute something
        China - if trade deal worked out including respecting intellectual property (big if) talks to include start

I'm predicting an optimistic year with lots of positive activity

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #39 on: 12/24/2018 10:55 am »
What matters most to me is that 2019 will be the most interesting, significant and diverse year for spaceflight (both crewed and uncrewed) for a long time. Although I expect subsequent years to be even better.

Offline Tywin

Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #40 on: 12/25/2018 09:55 pm »

     

Gateway
        Becomes official program with marginal support
        Orbit up in the air as SLS/Orion draws heat from Congress
        NASA, ESA and JAXA commit to build modules
        Russia - talk but no agreement to contribute
        PPE contract awarded
        UAE, Israel, South Korea, and Australia engage wanting to be part of return to Moon
                 Commit to Contribute something
        China - if trade deal worked out including respecting intellectual property (big if) talks to include start

I'm predicting an optimistic year with lots of positive activity

And what about India,  they will participate in some way in the Gateway?

I think so the same, a lot new emergen space countries, will be pleased to participate in the Gateway...
The knowledge is power...
Everything is connected...

Offline yoram

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #41 on: 12/26/2018 04:46 am »
SpaceX

F9 has roughly the same flight rate as 2018. They finish clearing out out their backlog and there is a slowdown of new sats delivered, however there are a few primary flights for Starlink replacing it. Starlink is still ramping up production, so there are only a few flights for it.

First stage landings are mostly successful, with perhaps one lost.

No demonstration of 48h turnaround for Block 5 in this year, but Starlight flights get S1 turnaround down to two weeks.

FH is doing the expected two launches successfully, however only one center core is being recovered.

The first Starship hopper is making some test flights, with an eventual loss, but there is already a second one in production when it happens The SH first stage does not fly in 2019, but we see some photos of it. There's at least one Raptor blowup on a test stand.

SpaceX does at least one more capital raise.

Air Force

Air Force flight ranges increase possible flight rate with more automation, lying the ground works for future much busier space ports. However the effective flight rate is roughly on the same level as the previous year.

Blue Origin

First tourist flights on New Sheppard happen.

Some more details about New Glenn revealed and the factory makes good progress, but no test flight or demonstrated hardware.

NASA

Both Commercial Crew providers do successful unmanned test flights, and one delivers crew to the ISS in a later flight. The other manned test slips into 2020.

ISS gets extended beyond 2025.

Webb has further delays and overruns. The overruns impacts at least one other telescope project. There's first public complaints from astronomers about the impacts of Webb overruns on other projects (not sure about that one)

At least one prominent politician in Congress or Senate speaks out against SLS.

Lunar Gateway makes some minor progress.

ESA/Ariane

Ariane 6 test flight slips to the end of the year, but is successful.

There is indication (but no public announcement) for a more serious development program to update Ariane 6 to a reusable first stage with a profile similar to F9.

Russia

They get the quality issues under control, so all flights are successful with only minor problems.

Proton keeps losing market share. Soyuz, both in the Baikonur and the Guyana and the manned version, is launching successfully roughly at the same rate. Angara has only one launch with more production problems.

Zvedza still doesn't launch, but gets ready for an early '20 launch.

There's an announcement to modify one the boosters in development for reusability, with a precursor test bed.

There's a meaningful public mile stone of a nuclear thermal engine ground test, with a flight test announced for the following year (but likely to slip).  This renews interest in nuclear propulsion in the US (ok that may be optimistic)

Small launchers

Rocket Lab has one failure, but other than that is doing well.

One startup (Firefly? Vector?) do a meaningful public test.

At least one startup gives up.

US startups

Bigelow announces a commercial flight of an inhabitable, but unmanned module, on New Glenn.

Planetary resources goes bankrupt, but gets bought and reemerges.

China

One manned flight.

At least one rocket startup has a meaningful milestone (suborbital flight), with another showing pictures from engine tests and flight hardware being built.

« Last Edit: 12/27/2018 05:43 am by yoram »

Online alang

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #42 on: 12/26/2018 06:55 pm »
Global economic downturn impacts commercial launch manifests.
Military spend remains resilient but more cost focussed.
Musk has already thought about this and the loan is part of the planning.

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #43 on: 12/29/2018 05:12 pm »
First of all, best wishes for everyone in the new year  :)
Now for the predictions. In 2019:

-The total number of launches will be higher than 2018
-Soyuz will launch more often than Falcon 9 (orbital)
-SpaceX will not attempt a recovery (drone ship or landing pad) for the in-flight abort mission.
-Vector will not reach the karman line.
-The manned crew dragon mission will fly this year,  Starliner will not fly with crew in 2019.
-Encouraged by the return of US manned spaceflight a major space project (large commercial space station) will be announced with serious funding and with respected people/companies that support it.
-Planet nine will be found
-There will be speculation in the media that planet nine or it’s moons are inhabited by intelligent aliens. SETI will actually observe the system and come up empty, but that will not put the idea to rest.

Offline philw1776

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #44 on: 12/29/2018 05:45 pm »
1. FH has 2 successful flights with all cores recovered per mission profile goals
2. Unmanned Crew Dragon 2 flight to ISS 1st QTR.  Crewed flight to ISS by 4th QTR.
3. Boeing also flies crew to ISS in 2019
4. Falcon class recovered core re-used 4 times
5. Raptor @ full BFR design level thrust fired successfully NLT April 2019 (Late from my 2018 prediction)
6. Hop test flights @ Boca Chica by "Water Tower" boilerplate Q1.  Using sub-scale raptors initial flights.
7. Elon actually delivers and does a Starship specs update in March-April
8. "Real" Starship proto arrives @ Boca Chica from LA 4th QTR.  Full scale Raptor engines.
9. SpaceX launches updated Starlink satellite constellation test sats
10. SpaceX recovers fairings successfully, and re-flies
11. No Falcon 9 upper stage recovery design OR mini-BFS
12. Lunar Gateway boondoggle shelved (I know, wishful thinking on my part.  Make it so!)
13. BO makes New Shepard commercial customer flights
14. BO reveals New Glenn details. 2020 first flight target date.
15. Not just China, but other spacecraft land on the moon
16. No SETI signal received
17. No Planet 9 discovery
18. Virgin Galactic flies non-test pilots
19. Europa Lander plans fade away
20. New Horizon plans a 2nd KBO flyby sometime mid decade
Jan 6th addition
21. We find out about SpaceX's plans for Boca Chica off shore launch of Super Heavy
« Last Edit: 01/06/2019 03:21 pm by philw1776 »
"It'll bang right out!"

Online Eric Hedman

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #45 on: 12/29/2018 07:44 pm »

     

Gateway
        Becomes official program with marginal support
        Orbit up in the air as SLS/Orion draws heat from Congress
        NASA, ESA and JAXA commit to build modules
        Russia - talk but no agreement to contribute
        PPE contract awarded
        UAE, Israel, South Korea, and Australia engage wanting to be part of return to Moon
                 Commit to Contribute something
        China - if trade deal worked out including respecting intellectual property (big if) talks to include start

I'm predicting an optimistic year with lots of positive activity

And what about India,  they will participate in some way in the Gateway?

I think so the same, a lot new emergen space countries, will be pleased to participate in the Gateway...
I don't know enough about India and how much they want to do things on their own and how much they want to collaborate with others.

If enough emerging countries want to participate, the foreign policy aspect of the gateway might become as important for it getting approved as anything else.  If it can be used as a carrot for China to agree to honoring intellectual property rights, it may have a value right there that politicians will consider.  It will be an interesting year no matter what happens.

Online Kryten

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #46 on: 12/30/2018 09:44 am »
US
Firefly Alpha's maiden flight is delayed well into 2020
New Shepard flies crew in late Q3 or Q4. No paid passengers this year
LauncherOne first flight is successful, three launches total in 2019
Vector attempts to launch a multi-engine stage towards the end of the year, no orbital attempt
Astra fly to orbit before the end of the year
At least three small launch startups go bust as the bubble starts to contract
20-25 Spacex launches
Raptor Grasshopper has an F9R dev-style catastrophic failure
No US lander successfully lands on the moon

Europe
No failures for Arianespace
Vega-C is pushed to 2020

China
OneSpace and Landspace are flying orbital before the end of the year, but none of the other startups make orbital attempts.
KZ-11 flies and the KZ-21 motor is tested
At least one previously unknown company does a 10+km launch

India
SSLV maiden launch is successful
Chandrayaan-2 lands safely

Russia
No complete launch failures in 2019

Other
At least one Iranian launch attempt
None from the DPRK, but they resume missile testing before the end of the year
5-10 Electron launches

General
110-130 flights worldwide, as small launchers start to pick up pace
4-6 complete failures
China>US>Russia pattern holds (nb. I don't count Electron as US)

Online Gliderflyer

Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #47 on: 12/30/2018 06:22 pm »
Here we go again:

Orbital:
- SpaceX will fly Falcon 9 17 times
- There will be no Falcon 9 turnaround faster than 2 weeks
- Falcon Heavy will fly twice
- SpaceX will have a launch failure that results in the loss of the payload
- Both SpaceX and Boeing fly unmanned test flights, but only Boeing flies crew
- Neither Commercial Crew Vehicle flies crew to the ISS
- Rocket Lab will fly 9 times with 1 partial failure
- Virgin Orbit will conduct 1 orbital flight attempt
- Vector will not reach orbit
- Blue Origin will unveil some New Glenn hardware, but no complete vehicle
- Obligatory carbon/epoxy and LOX ignition prediction

Suborbital:
- EXOS flies at least twice and reaches 100 km
- Blue Origin will fly New Shepard 3 times
- Blue Origin will fly people to 100 km in December
- SpaceShipTwo will fly from New Mexico
- VSS Unity will break 90 km, but won’t be capable of reaching 100 km

Atmospheric:
- The SpaceX water tower successfully flies and is awesome
- LinkSpace successfully flies their 5 engine VTVL testbed
- The mass launch of 5000 model rockets planned for the Apollo 11 anniversary occurs, and goes about as well as one would expect
« Last Edit: 12/30/2018 06:26 pm by Gliderflyer »
I tried it at home

Offline Refleks

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #48 on: 12/30/2018 11:15 pm »
My preditions...

Elon will change Starship design again

James Webb will be delayed again until further notice.

NASA will post an update showing a new facility that destroys rockets as soon as they come off the manufacturing line, touting it as a huge success and finally after many decades of research approaching a similar efficiency level to just burning pallets of money.

Finally, I will win the lottery and develop, prototype, and proof-of-concept Sea Dragon's giant pressure fed engine.

Finally, Rocket Lab will make the cutest Electron Heavy rocket (you know you want it)




In all seriousness, I really hope everyone (including the small startups) are wildly successful and 2019 is a great year for spaceflight.   I'm glad to be around during this time in human history and advancements that seem a lifetime away are finally starting to seem like they're finally in reach, and I've found my interest renewed.  Cheers!

Offline OhYeah

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #49 on: 12/31/2018 12:00 pm »
That Electron Heavy is one sexy looking piece of hardware, I must admit.

I have a prediction for tomorrow (1st of January). I can't shake the feeling that something unexpected will happen with the New Horizons probe and Ultima Thule encounter. Nothing like this has been attempted before and everything they've thrown at the probe it has managed to do exceeding expectations. I hope the luck (read: hard work) doesn't run out now.

Online Svetoslav

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #50 on: 12/31/2018 12:34 pm »
Here we go:

Human spaceflight:

1. SpaceShipTwo-Unity will conduct several test flights, at least some of which will reach space (=80 km altitude). However, the first commercial flights are delayed to the second half of the year, even further. We won't see flights from Spaceport America soon.

2. More delays for Blue Origin, they won't send a human to space in 2019.

3. More delays for Starliner. Uncrewed test flight will happen, but the crewed one will be pushed to 2020.

3. Crew Dragon will fly in uncrewed mode during the winter or early spring. There will be delays for the in-flight abort test and the first crewed vehicle. First flight with humans onboard will happen in late 2019.

Robotic probes:

1. New Horizons flyby of Ultima Thule is successful

2. Chang'e 4 landing is successful

3. Chang'e 5 sample return further delayed to 2020

4. Chandrayaan-2 further delayed to at least spring. At least one of the two non-Chinese lunar landers (Beresheet or Chandrayaan-2) will fail. I hope I'm wrong.

5. InSight successfully deploys all instruments and starts the scientific missions.

6. No methane will be discovered by ExoMars just yet.

7. The last Minerva-2 hopper will land on asteroid Ryugu successfully. Both Osiris-Rex and Hayabusa 2 will collect samples.

8. Anomaly with Proton-M rocket launching Spektr-RG spacecraft (I dearly hope I'm wrong about that).

9. More delays for James Webb.

Rockets:

1. Rocket Lab begins regular flights, with one per 3-4 weeks.

2. Vector conducts unmanned suborbital test successfully.

3. Virgin orbit makes orbital test flight, it will be a success.

4. Second Falcon Heavy launch is a success. Lightsail-2 test will be successful.

5. Another big delay for SLS announced.

6. At least one of the Chinese startupts will launch a satellite to orbit.

Russia space:

1. Another major failure in 2019.

2. Angara delayed further, the next launch is in the second half in 2019 at the earliest, more likely pushed to 2020

3. More delays for Nauka module, the anticipated arrival at Baikonur in 2019 will happen later than expected (but it will at long last happen).

Offline Prober

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #51 on: 01/01/2019 02:44 am »
2019 the year of turmoil, and accountability
1) Accountability comes to NASA doors
2) Major announcements come 4-6 months into the new year.
3) Just as it was in the days of Challenger short sighted thinking brings “FAIL”
4) Political and economic forces brings revaluation of many space programs around the globe
5) Space Force more than many will believe possible.
6) Private interests find Freedom, Adventure and dream projects now possible.
7) 1990's timeline reestablished, many projects discarded now become possible. Dreams of "Space Wealth" bring excitement as new business becomes possible
 8) SpaceX Mars too little too late
« Last Edit: 01/15/2019 08:11 pm by Chris Bergin »
2017 - Everything Old is New Again.
I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work. ~ by Thomas Alva Edison

Offline Colleteral888

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #52 on: 01/01/2019 01:21 pm »
Here are my predictions for 2019

-The two planned launch for the Falcon Heavy will be successful and all 3 boosters will be successfully recovered for both flights
-SpaceX will launch as many rockets as they did in 2018 but there will be one partial failure.
-Starship prototype unveils, first few flights are successful but there will be a failure which would destroy the vehicle
-The Starship launch date will be delayed
-ULA will have no failures with their Atlas and Delta rockets and all their missions are successful
-Vulcan will continue as planned
-SpaceX and Boeing will both successfully launch their uncrewed and crewed flights for NASA to the ISS
-Rocket Labs will have at least 1 or 2 partial failures
-Blue Origin will begin commercial suborbital flights however it will happen only later in the year.
-Blue Origin will reveal more on their New Glenn rocket and the rocket will continue to be on track for launch in 2021
-Virgin Galactic will fly at least 3 more test flights but they will not fly any passengers on board in 2019
-The SLS/Orion programme will continue on track
-Insight will successfully deploy its instruments and will begin its mission
-TESS will find a shit load of exoplanets
-OSIRIS-REX will get a sample out of Bennu
-Parker Solar Probe will answer a lot of questions we have about our Sun and even creates new ones

Online yokem55

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #53 on: 01/02/2019 12:18 am »
Well, here's this year's attempt at collecting Highly Valuable Internet Points. Finding the right balance between practical predictions and whimsical speculation is the real challenge here...

SpaceX
  • 18 Flights - 16 Falcon 9's, 2 Falcon Heavy's. All successful.
  • 0 Deliberately Expended Cores.
  • 1 Landing/Recovery Failure.
  • Demo-1 Flies mid February.
  • In-flight abort Flies by end of May.
  • Demo-2 (Crewed) Flies by end of September. SpaceX 'Captures the Flag'.
  • 'Redesigned' Raptor reaches 300 Bar.
  • StarShip Hopper Successfully Hops to altitude of 3000 ft but crashes on landing.
  • 1 Starlink launch with 10+ satellites
  • A wet recovered fairing pair is flown. Dry fairing recovery is abandoned

  • ULA
  • ULA Launches 9 times (5 Atlas, 2 Delta Medium's, 2 Delta Heavy's. All successful.
  • Vulcan has a major set back (1 year-ish).
  • Musk and Bruno get into an ugly spat on Twitter.

  • Northrop Grumman Innovation Systems
  • NGIS causes another major issue with JWST.
  • The first OmegA test CBC is test fired before the end of the year.
  • Zuma 2 is announced at the end of the year to be launched on a Falcon 9 in 2020.
  • Antares launches twice successfully.
  • The first Atlas/Vulcan boosters fly on an Atlas V successfully

  • Blue Origins
  • New Shepherd launches humans to space a week ahead of the SpaceX Demo-2 crew mission. There is much online snark between Musk and Bezos as a result.
  • The first New Glen booster test article takes shape.
  • BE-4 is demonstrated to over perform ULA's requirements on the test stand.

  • Boeing
  • Starliner successfully launches its orbital flight test in by the end of August.

  • NASA
  • SLS core completes 'Green Run' static fire by end of September.
  • Issues found during the Green Run cause a delay to 2022.
  • The Orion Ascent Abort happens, but the launch motor under performs, which puts the test results in doubt.
  • The Senate wants to increase the funding for SLS, the new House does not. The compromise increases funding, but drastically delays the Lunar Gateway.
  • Europa Clipper enters full production. The hard requirement of launching on SLS is dropped to a requirement that it be launched on the vehicle allowing the 'earliest arrival date' after the spacecraft is ready. The lander is formally canceled.
  • An Ice Giant orbiter mission is approved. Destination (Uranus or Neptune) is TBD
  • Opportunity is declared dead.
  • Curiosity continues on.
  • Insight has a nominal, but unsurprising mission.
  • Hubble has another issue that drastically limits where it can be pointed.
  • Juno-Cam Dies.
  • A small portion of New Horizon's Ultima Thule data is lost before it can be received on the ground.
  • JWST is delayed to 2022 due to issues caused by NGIS.
  • WFIRST is delayed to the late 2020's.
  • Success with commercial crew allow's ISS to be formally extended to 2030.

  • Other US Space
  • RocketLabs launches 8 times, with one partial failure.
  • Virgin Orbit successfully launches Launcher One.
  • No other small launch provider reaches orbit.

  • ArianeSpace
  • Ariane 5 flies 10 times. All successfully.
  • Ariane 6 reamains on schedule for 2020.

  • Russia/Soyuz
  • A Soyuz launch vehicle has another major mishap.

  • Offline mulp

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    Re: Predictions 2019
    « Reply #54 on: 01/06/2019 11:35 am »
    Some politicians will declare the US is losing the space race to China.

    Some debate, some big talk, maybe 30% change Trump promises he will beat China in his first term, but no new money, maybe cuts to NASA based on cutting leftist global warming religion, aka weather.

    Rising nay saying over too many launches and orbiting satellites, confusing debate over pace, some rational, most ignorant.

    Overall a year of progress with any failures taken in stride, eg, like the failure to deliver crew to ISS, etc. As long as no deaths.

    Year might end with debate over US government or private sector driving space exploration, use. Both funding and control.

    Online moreno7798

    Re: Predictions 2019
    « Reply #55 on: 01/09/2019 10:46 pm »
    Lets' see how wrong I am this year...

    1. Starship Hopper v1 flies Q1 2019
    2. Starship Hopper v2 (orbital) flies Q2 2019
    3. Starship flies Q3 2019
    4. Super Heavy flies Q4 2019
    5. Crew Dragon does not fly until Q2 2019 because of children fights in the District of Columbia
    6. Blue Origin flies someone to space in 2019
    7. Richard Branson flies to space in 2019
    8. StratoLaunch flies 3 satellites to orbit in 2019
    9. Musk unveils Mars ISRU hardware in 2019
    10. Three #dearmoon participants are introduced
    11. Rocketlab flies 7 times to space
    12. Rocket Lab unveils plans for a new rocket
    13. SLS continues its slow death

    Offline yg1968

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    Re: Predictions 2019
    « Reply #56 on: 01/10/2019 01:05 am »
    Here are my predictions for 2019:

    1- FH will fly twice.

    2- F9 will fly 24 times.

    3- The Starship hopper will have a successful hop.

    4- SpaceX will be successful in catching a fairing this year.

    5- The uncrewed and crewed demo flights for SpaceX will fly in 2019.

    6- The uncrewed demo flight for Boeing will fly in 2019 but not their crewed demo flight.

    7- Blue Origin and VG will fly people this year.

    8- Stratolaunch's plane will fly this year but will not launch a Pegasus rocket this year.

    Online Eric Hedman

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    Re: Predictions 2019
    « Reply #57 on: 01/10/2019 06:17 am »
    For anyone still wanting to predict this year, it's getting late.  Going too far into the year before predicting takes some of the fun out of it.  So get your prognostications in before too long.  Any predictions after the shutdown ends shouldn't count as much. :)

    Offline Falcon H

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    Re: Predictions 2019
    « Reply #58 on: 01/12/2019 04:58 am »
    1- SpaceX will announce that Super Heavy will switch to using conventional landing legs, rather than landing in a cradle.

    2- SLS will sip another year, heating up debate about its future even more. Commercial alternatives will be considered more seriously.

    3- Blue Origin will show off some renderings of New Armstrong. No New Glen test flights, or completed hardware.

    4- Virgin Galactic will fly one customer.

    6- New Shepard will make multiple flights with crews, but no paying customers will be flown.

    7- ULA will start to take reusability more seriously and will consider redesigning Vulcan.
    "Sooner or later, we must expand life beyond our little blue mud ball--or go extinct" Elon Musk

    Offline tenkendojo

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    Re: Predictions 2019
    « Reply #59 on: 01/14/2019 11:03 pm »
    1. SLS program suffers additional delays, pushing EM-1 mission to 2021+.

    2. JWST experiences another 6 months due to new sunshield problems, but still scheduled to launch by the end of 2021.

    3. Big Falcon Hopper conducts several successful short hops, but no orbital Starship test until 2020.

    4. Additional "radical" and counterintuitive" redesigns BFR/Starship, Elon Musk decides to add landing legs to BFR, and renames the whole thing, twice.

    6. ULA announces partially reusable redesigns of its Vulcan.

    7. ESA unveils new partially reusable Ariane 7 designs.

    8. Russia reaches deals to sell RD-180s to China and/or India.

    9. China pushes its Long March-5B maiden launch to 2020.

    10. Jeff Bezos announces its Starlink competitor satellite constellation plan.
    « Last Edit: 01/14/2019 11:08 pm by tenkendojo »

    Offline agentdrozd

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    Re: Predictions 2019
    « Reply #60 on: 01/22/2019 12:25 pm »
    A little bit late, but:

    SpaceX
    -17 Falcon 9 and 2 Falcon Heavy flies, all successful
    -booster flies for 4th and 5th time, crashes during 5th landing attempt
    -turnaround between two launches of the same booster is down to 2 weeks
    -DM-1 flies in late February, followed by IFA in May and DM-2 in August, all successful
    -dearMoon pushed back to 2024, Mars missions to 2024 and 2026
    -redesigned Raptor fires in February
    -first Starhopper hop in late March
    -full-scale version of Starhopper is ready in Q3, flies in Q4
    -after that Elon announces plans for future Starship/Super Heavy versions
    -SpaceX starts cooperating with other companies in order to design architecture of Mars base
    -few more contracts given to Spacex, including another FH flight
    -first Starlink launch in summer
    -3rd droneship is ready by the end of the year
    -Boca Chica site still isn't ready by the of the year

    NASA
    -EM-1 is delayed to early 2021
    -EM-2 is delayed to 2023
    -Orion Abort Test happens successfully in H2
    -NASA announces more details about LOP-G, awards construction contracts
    -InSight make some interesting discoveries on Mars
    -Opportunity is officially dead
    -Europa Clipper delayed, Europa Lander is questionable
    -Osiris-Rex successfully operates at Bennu
    -JWST still scheduled for 2021
    -WFIRST delayed to late 2020s
    -ISS extended to 2028
    -NASA chooses Dragonfly as next New Frontiers mission
    -first exomoon is confirmed
    -TESS works flawless, find 1000 exoplanets including 10 Earth-sized potentially habitable rocky plantes
    -Hubble has more technical problem, but still operates

    ULA
    -OFT in April, CFT in October, all succesfull
    -8 launches, all succesfull
    -Vulcan on track to 2021 launch, first hardware is ready
    -ULA continues work on ACES and SMART Reuse, gets funding from government

    Blue Origin
    -first crewed New Shepard flight in middle of the year
    -first tourists fly on New Shepard in December
    -more details of Blue Moon revealed, although it slips to 2024
    -first info on New Armstrong is revealed with scheduled launch date in 2028 and over 100 tons to LEO capacity
    -first pics of New Glenn hardware
    -works at LC-36 speed up
    -few more contracts for New Glenn, including one from government agency

    Virgin
    -Orbit launches successfully in March, 3 more flights this year
    -Galactic puts first tourist in space in Q3, before BO
    -VSS 3 is almost ready

    RocketLab
    -8 launches this year, including 1 from Wallops and one partial failure
    -LC-2 is ready in October, first flight in December
    -Electron is modified a bit, increases its payload capacity
    -Sutherland is announced as LC-3, and Peter Beck says they're going to build another pad in Mahia

    Other launch companies
    -Vector reaches orbit in H2, although rocket needs some additional work and no more flights happen
    -Firefly slips Alpha launch to 2020
    -Startolaunch flights its plane few times, although can't find customers and is close to bankruptcy
    -Relativity is on track with 2020 launch, gets first contracts and unveils bigger rocket
    -at least two smallsat launcher companies die before their first flight
    -first successful Astra launch, company is no longer secret
    -LandSpace, OneSpace and i-Space conducts successfull orbital launches

    Moon companies
    -SpaceIL fails to land Beresheet
    -Moon Express mission pushed back to 2020, but company gets more funds
    -NASA awards more detailed CLPS contracts, Moon Express, Masten, Astrobotic and Lockheed Martin are biggest winners
    -first successful commercial Moon landing in Q4
    -at least one company dies

    Russia
    -another failure of Soyuz destroys Russia's position is space market
    -Angara, Federation and Soyuz-5 gets another delays

    China
    -35 launches, one failure
    -new rockets introduced
    -successful flight of CZ-5
    -Chang'e 5 delayed to 2020
    -Chang'e 4 is a big success, performs better than expected
    -space station delayed to 2022

    ISRO
    -first tests of reusable launch vehicles, India decides for propulsive landing option
    -SSLV launches successfully in H2
    -Chandrayaan-2 orbiter is success, lander dies after just few hours
    -human flights delayed to 2023
    -India approves Venus mission

    Arianespace
    -11 launches, all successfull
    -Vega-C debut
    -Ariane reveals more details about Ariane NEXT
    -Ariane 6 slips to 2021
    « Last Edit: 01/22/2019 12:34 pm by agentdrozd »

    Offline Lar

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    Re: Predictions 2019
    « Reply #61 on: 01/23/2019 04:57 am »
    I think we're far enough into '19 that the prediction window ought to be closed.
    "I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
    "We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

    Offline Prober

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    Re: Predictions 2019
    « Reply #62 on: 02/17/2019 02:24 am »
    2019 the year of turmoil, and accountability
    1) Accountability comes to NASA doors
    2) Major announcements come 4-6 months into the new year.
    3) Just as it was in the days of Challenger short sighted thinking brings “FAIL”
    4) Political and economic forces brings revaluation of many space programs around the globe
    5) Space Force more than many will believe possible.
    6) Private interests find Freedom, Adventure and dream projects now possible.


     8) SpaceX Mars too little too late


    7) 1990's timeline reestablished, many projects discarded now become possible. Dreams of "Space Wealth" bring excitement as new business becomes possible


    * “This time, when we go to the moon, we’re actually going to stay. We’re not going to leave flags and footprints and then come home, to not go back for another 50 years,” Bridenstine added Thursday.

    Bush 41:  Back to the Moon; back to the future. And this time, back to stay.  -- July 20, 1989]
    http://radioopensource.org/presidential-space-speeches/

    « Last Edit: 02/17/2019 02:28 am by Prober »
    2017 - Everything Old is New Again.
    I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work. ~ by Thomas Alva Edison

    Offline FinalFrontier

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    Re: Predictions 2019
    « Reply #63 on: 02/17/2019 03:17 am »
    SLS slip to 2021-2022.

    CCM1 sometime this year could be either provider who does it first.

    BFS schdule for 2023 will prove hard to stick to but I think they will get done what they need to get done this year.

    BFH will hop this year but may never get another aero shell and may just hop or fly more less the way it looks.

    Contracting disputes between SpaceX and ULA will heat up

    Blue Origin will get close to IOC of BE4

    ULA will continue progressing on vulcan. Testing will begin next year in earnest for the core elements. Fabrication will get underway this year at some point for the first development articles.

    Tempo of Chinese launches and activities will continue increasing.

    Russia will have another major LOM/LOV. Hopefully it won't be manned and result in LOC.

    Certain presidential candidates in the US will question why NASA exists and why we can't just take it's budget. I am sure you can guess which ones might do this.


    Overall: Federal reserve debt and bond leverage will continue to be problematic. No long term solutions exist and there is no national policy. The more astute members of the congress will increasingly begin to take note of this, and what it may mean in the early 2020s for the nation. In particular with regard to ALL non-critical spending be it welfare, defense, or discretionary items. Some will privately being to craft ideas for how to navigate major cuts in a future worst case scenerio, others will try to deny to themselves it could become an issue.

    Finally: there will continue to be no accountability for the literally criminal cost over-runs and delays of the SLS program, particularly the contract scamming by Boeing. There will be no accountability at NASA and Congress will continue to ignore the problem causing it to get worse as usual. SLS program will wind up asking for more money by the end of the year and stating they are even further over budget and behind schedule. Boeing will continue to blaim everyone but themselves and insist it's under control. Meanwhile all of the other major companies developing large or advanced vehicles will continue to do so and SLS will continue to look like a big joke.



    « Last Edit: 02/17/2019 03:23 am by FinalFrontier »
    3-30-2017: The start of a great future
    "Live Long and Prosper"

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