Author Topic: Predictions 2019  (Read 10935 times)

Offline scienceguy

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Predictions 2019
« on: 11/12/2018 03:51 pm »
So I'm starting this thread rather early but I'm itching to list my predictions.
Besides, today's a holiday and I'm hoping to have interesting stuff to read.

2018 thread:  https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44307

Predictions for spaceflight for 2019

SpaceX will reach orbit at least 12 times with Falcon 9 and at least twice with Falcon Heavy

The SpaceX circumlunar tourist flight will make headlines again

SLS, Orion and JWST will all continue to be money pits but will all keep going nonetheless

At least 2 exomoons will be confirmed

At least 2 more “earth analogues”, or earth-size planets in the habitable zone will be found, both within 40 light years

NASA’s InSight lander will find evidence of liquid water where it drills

NASA’s Curiosity rover will find more evidence of organic compounds

NASA’s TESS will detect exactly a whole bunch of planets

Blue Origin will take people into space before the end of the year

SpaceX will start delivering commercial crew to the ISS


edit: adjusted a couple of predictions
edit again: adjusted prediction for number of SpaceX flights because of the number on the schedule
edit(Lar): Put link to 2018 thread in this header post
« Last Edit: 12/17/2018 04:18 am by Lar »
e^(pi*i) = -1

Offline Darkseraph

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #1 on: 11/12/2018 05:51 pm »
SpaceX

- SpaceX will launch 24 times
- 2 Falcon Heavies
- A Falcon rocket will have a launch failure
- Mini-BFR (Falcon 2nd Stage) will evolve to be a fully fledged S2 replacement
- SpaceX will announce their intent to do cradle landing tests with a used F9 stage in Texas
- The Falcon failure will cause a delay in flights for the rest of the year and delay Dragon Crewed Mission
- The first test flights of BFS will happen in Q4
- Fairing recovery will be abandoned
- The scope and capabilities of BFR will be downsized after missing out on Air Force development contract
- BFR missions to Mars will be delayed by 2 years
- Falcon 9 is picked as launch vehicle for at least one NASA funded lunar mission
- Starlink will be downsized from current plans
- Composite Tanks will be an "upgrade" path for future versions of BFR
- Musk will hint at future versions of BFR that match or exceed ITS in scale and capability
- The name of BFR will change again from "Starship/Super Heavy" to something else

Blue Origin

- New Shepard will fly people in Q2
- New Shepard will have 8 flights during the year
- Parts of the first New Glenn rocket will be revealed with pics
- Blue Origin will reveal their design for a reusable second stage
- More technical details of Blue Moon will be revealed
- After the first successful human flight, Blue Origin reveals the concept for their first orbital passenger craft
- Blue/Amazon reveal a plan for a Starlink style constellation or partner to launch a rival constellation
- In an interview, the size and scale of New Armstrong are hinted at and it will be ITS sized or bigger.


ULA
- The first flight hardware from Vulcan will be revealed
- ACES will be brought forward because of NASA new focus on the Moon
- Lockheed and Boeing will pursue the development of RLV technologies outside of ULA

NASA/US
- Another year of flawless missions
- InSight finds something unexpected that changes our views on Mars
- An exomoon is confirmed
- Planet 9 and 10 are found
- Curiosity dies on Mars unexpectedly, months are spent trying to revive it
- SLS has a new delay of 6 months
- Despite that Congress increases its funding
- Another object like Omuamua is discovered
- Europa lander is cancelled, Europa clipper receives less funding.
- Hubble spontaneously fails
- More Astronauts from the Apollo era will unfortunately pass away
- The Gateway will survive the year
- SLS will get a better name in a public contest
- The Space Force is dead on arrival with the new Congress
- A serious safety incident aboard the ISS will occur

Russia
- Two launch failures
- Nauka delayed till 2020
- U.S Congress pushes faster to get off Soyuz, depriving Russia of lucrative funds
- A deal is worked out to sell RD-180s to China
- Russia reveals a design for a reusable rocket, more for the purpose of controlling debris from launches
than for cost savings
- A cash strapped Russian space agency attempts to partner with emerging countries to develop their access to space, to the annoyance of the U.S which will still be trying to prevent proliferation of missile
tech

Japan

- Japan will launch at least six times, successfully
- More space startups will emerge from Japan, with a change in government policy as well
- The government will make a push for reusable technology in the future, post H3
- Japan will announce how it intends to cooperate on the Gateway station, probably with a lander.

Europe

- More countries will join ESA
- ESA will accelerate reusability research with an increased budget
- EU/ESA will change policy to encourage more space startups to exist
- All missions flown by Arianespace will be successful
- A buy European clause for launch will be enforced
- Europe will refloat the idea of an indigenous human capsule/plane after the Soyuz accident of the previous year and because austerity programs will be ending in most countries
- Using Proton for Exomars will be reopened due to failures in Russian industry


Commercial Space

- RocketLab fly 8 more times with one failure
- A larger successor to Electron is revealed, powered by methalox
- At least one new startup reveals plans for a reusable small sat launcher
- One or two asteroid mining ventures fold
- First commercial landing on the moon is a failure
- At least one new startup is founded on the idea of providing propellant depots
- Vector reaches orbit by the end of the year
- Virgin Orbit reaches orbit on their first try
- Space Adventures teams up with SpaceX and Boeing to sell seats to the ISS
- Masten raise a lot of money and reveal plans for their lunar lander and launch vehicle

China

-35 flights, all successful
- More Chinese space startups emerge
- Astronauts are named for first CSS mission
- After a successful test of a full scale capsule, China has a public unveil of its future human capsule
- Two Chinese launch startups reach orbit
- Hypersonic missile tests worry the world, but particularly the U.S after a test successfully hits a drone target in the Pacific ocean in minutes
- Plans for other countries to add equipment and modules to the CSS emerge

Other countries

- Sanctions have the opposite effect and Iran accelerates its launch program, reaching LEO twice in a year
- North Korea test launches ballistic missiles capable of re-entry after relations with U.S devolve
- Turkey reveals details of its first domestic launcher
- One African country unveils plans for a microsat launch vehicle
- Kenya and China entertain the idea of building facilities for Chinese launch vehicles from the equator as part of OBOR
- Brazil makes a deal with the U.S to allow U.S launch vehicles fly from there
- Saudi Arabia increases investment in spaceflight
 


 

« Last Edit: 12/21/2018 02:48 pm by Darkseraph »
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." R.P.Feynman

Offline Slarty1080

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #2 on: 11/13/2018 10:54 am »
SpaceX will conduct multiple BFS prototype launches culminating in a near orbital flight at the end of the year.
There will be further changes to the BFR but nothing substantial
The first words spoken on Mars: "Humans have been wondering if there was any life on the planet Mars for many decades … well ... there is now!"

Offline woods170

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #3 on: 11/13/2018 11:24 am »
I predict that before 2019 is out there will be a predictions thread for 2020.









(Easy win. I did exactly the same thing last year)


((And yes: I am ridiculing these prediction threads))
« Last Edit: 11/13/2018 11:26 am by woods170 »

Online ZachS09

Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #4 on: 11/13/2018 02:05 pm »
Ready to hear my annual ten predictions? If so, then let's get started.

#1: The Falcon Heavy successfully completes the Arabsat 6A and STP-2 missions with all six boosters (the side cores and the center cores) landing safely at Cape Canaveral and on the drone ship.

#2: SpaceX launches 20 missions due to the fact that they cleared their backlog in the past and fewer customers opt to fly on the Falcon rockets.

#3: United Launch Alliance launches both the Starliner Orbital Flight Test and Crewed Flight Test within 2019; however, there is a partial failure during the Crewed Flight Test in which the RL-10 engines shutdown prematurely, but the spacecraft's engines push it into a good orbit. Meanwhile, SpaceX successfully launches both their Crew Dragon Orbital Flight Test and Crewed Flight Test missions. Both of those spacecrafts do not suffer any type of failure whatsoever.

#4: Arianespace launches twelve missions: five Ariane 5 rockets, three Soyuz rockets, and four Vega rockets including the maiden Vega-C mission.

#5: Aleksei Ovchinin and Nick Hague each get to make a second attempt to launch to the International Space Station; Hague goes first on Soyuz-MS 12 while Ovchinin goes on Soyuz-MS 14, replacing one of the Russian cosmonauts.

#6: China launches their Long March 5 rocket on three consecutive successful flights: the RTF in January, a test launch of the Long March 5B, and the Chang'e 5 lunar sample return mission.

#7: Hayabusa 2 successfully fires its ion engines to begin its journey back to Earth, having collected a good amount of samples from the Ryugu asteroid.

#8: OSIRIS-REx picks the best spot on the Bennu asteroid to collect its own samples and begins a dress rehearsal for the sample-return procedure, but telemetry is lost for a long period of time, causing mission controllers to initially believe the spacecraft suffered some sort of failure until the signal is picked up again before they declare the mission over.

#9: ISRO finally launches their Chandrayaan 2 mission to the Moon, but I still think that even though the lander/rover lands successfully, it'll stop transmitting after a few hours due to an unknown problem. This prediction carries over from my 2018 predictions due to this mission being delayed until 2019.

#10: Rocket Lab's Electron rocket makes 25 flights; 30% of which launch from the Wallops Flight Facility.
« Last Edit: 12/18/2018 04:36 am by ZachS09 »
Because the Falcon Heavy Test Flight was successful, it has inspired thousands of people to consider changing the future of space travel.

Offline Lar

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #5 on: 11/13/2018 03:05 pm »
((And yes: I am ridiculing these prediction threads))
Love you man, you're the best.... but if you don't like prediction threads, don't read them. No need to mock. That said, I LOLed.
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Offline Rhamphorhynchan

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #6 on: 11/13/2018 03:38 pm »
New Shepard flies crew shortly before Falcon 9. Bezos tweets "Welcome to the club" at Musk when Dragon 2 docks with the ISS.

Offline Apollo-phill

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #7 on: 11/13/2018 03:43 pm »
I safely predict we will see the 50th anniversary of the first human beings being landed onto the Moons surface then returned safely to Earth i.e. Apollo-11 😂😂

But, do not forget the other Apollo missions whose 50th anniversary it is too -  Apollo 9, Apollo 10 and Apollo 12.😊

Apollo-phill


Offline jak Kennedy

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #8 on: 11/13/2018 04:01 pm »
Stratolaunch complete full speed taxi tests.

Branson announces Spaceship 2 is days away from launching passengers and he is now weeks away from being a passenger.

More seriously I think in H2 of 2019 SpaceX will be launching their satellites and I am ready to buy a receiver.

NASA runs out of reasons to delay Dragon2 crew test as Boeing delays their crew test to 2020.

SLS is delayed again, but that is more a reality than prediction.

Musk posts another tweet about mini BFS and NSF forum crashes the internet.

Due to SLS delays NASA organizes a race between

Offline freddo411

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #9 on: 11/13/2018 09:24 pm »

* JWST does not launch in 2019.

* SLS does not launch in 2019.

* Full scale BFS or BFR does not launch or hop in 2019. (Hope I'm wrong on this one)

* Blue Origin does not launch an orbital rocket in 2019.

* 47 years after the Apollo program, no human will have gone beyond LEO.


* Falcon Heavy flies again

* Crew Dragon flies at least once

* Falcon 9 ends with 4x as many flights in 2019 as Atlas V, putting it just behind the total number of flights.

* SpaceX wins (slightly) more Air Force contracts than ULA

* A F9 S1 will fly on it's forth flight.   AND, also, it's fifth flight.

* Starlink satellites #3 thru ?? will reach orbit.

* Boeing flies an unmanned Starliner

* Rocket lab flies to orbit at least 3 times

* Another small sat launcher flies successfully to orbit

* A small sat launcher fails to achieve an attempted orbital flight .

* New Sheppard flies with at least one person, sub-orbitally.

* A Russian rocket or spacecraft suffers a significant problem

* A European speaks out (again) against "subsidies" for SpaceX from the US government

* A European asks for (more) subsidies for Ariane from European states.


Offline FishInferno

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #10 on: 11/14/2018 12:40 am »
Dragon 2 launches crew before the end of the year.

Starliner flies its unmanned mission, but crew delayed to 2020.

Images of the BFR test hopper are released with promises to fly soon, but it doesn't fly before the year ends.

Mini-BFS test article is just a test article and not a reusable upper stage, flies in Q3 2019.

Starlink begins deployment in Q3 but not fast enough to begin service in 2020.

Elon Musk gets into more PR trouble over Tesla, possibly outed as CEO.

The Boring Company opens their Hawthorne tunnel in January to much fanfare, gains contracts to extend the system across LA. Some more chatter about boring tech being used on Mars.

100% success rate of Falcon launches and landings.

USAF expresses interest in BFR but no public deal is made.

No architecture-level changes to BFR but the design continues to mature.

SLS and Orion continue to be delayed per usual.

At some press event, a NASA official will be cornered into acknowledging BFR and comparing it to SLS, will make a flimsy excuse as to why SLS is needed.

SpaceX continues to talk with other companies (Caterpillar, John Deer, etc.) about helping with Mars colonization efforts. Elon Musk makes an offhand tweet about Tesla supplying batteries/solar panels.

NASA outlines the requirements for commercial cargo to DSG; says winners will be selected in 2021.

New Shepard launches crew; if it's before SpaceX Jeff Bezos gives them hell.

Blue Origin unveils more details of Blue Moon, will use a BFR-style ship on top of New Glenn. Crew capacity ~20.

Virgin Orbit flies successfully, Galactic still gets nowhere.

Rocketlab has a 100% success rate.

Vulcan trudges along, but as New Glenn makes progress Vulcan's viability becomes more and more uncertain.

Stratolaunch goes under.

Arianespace still has their head in the sand over Ariane 6/reusability.
« Last Edit: 11/16/2018 04:59 pm by FishInferno »
Comparing SpaceX and SLS is like comparing paying people to plant fruit trees with merely digging holes and filling them.  - Robotbeat

Offline IanThePineapple

Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #11 on: 11/14/2018 01:53 am »
My thoughts (I really overdid this...):

NASA:
- More SLS/Orion issues, but nothing huge. Stays in 2021 (maybe shifting a few months), and seems to be on track. EM-2 slips a small amount.
- Core Stage 1 finished, ships to Stennis and does at least a few fueling tests, potentially the full test-fire
- Europa Clipper faces uncertainty in Congress in early 2019, but ultimately continues with development and early assembly in late 2019.
- New Horizons flies by Ultima Thule successfully, no major issues. Ultima is found to be a dual-lobe KBO, not two separate bodies.
- OSIRIS-REX is in orbit around Bennu, sending back heaps of data. Encounters some minor issues, but nothing major.
- JWST stays on track for 2021
- WFIRST continues development despite uncertain future
- CEASAR (comet sample return) is chosen for New Frontiers 4 because of huge uncertainty with Dragonfly (Titan drone)
- Voyager 2 reaches interstellar space in early 2019
- ISS gets officially extended to 2028, with option for 2030 extension. NASA and/or ROSCOSMOS begin investigating if it can go further, potentially including solar array replacement/refurbishment.
- LOP-G begins serious development, Power and Propulsion Module assembly contract(s) gets awarded. Russia, Europe and Japan officially announce their own module(s).
- Opportunity declared dead, Curiosity continues perfectly.
- InSight begins sending back troves of data, mission managers announce major discovery in mid/late 2019.
- Kepler data analysis continues, more minor or even major discoveries announced.
- JunoCam stops working, as expected (though it has lasted much longer than expected)
- Budget stays about the same as 2018, higher than usual.
- SLS ML-2 contract awarded, basic construction starts.
- NASA seriously considers converting HB-1 in the VAB For SLS Block IB.

SpaceX
- 18 F9 launches, 2 FH
- FH gets a few more commercial mission contracts, and the first DoD/NRO payload(s) are awarded.
- Falcon 9 continues flying, Block 5 shows its potential in rapid reuse.
- DM-1 flies in mid-Jan, and is successful.
- DM-2 flies in July, successful as well.
- First operational Crew Dragon mission gets pushed to early 2020
- At least 1 booster fails to land
- In-Flight Abort test completed, booster does not successfully return, capsule works near-perfectly.
- BFS Grasshopper revealed. Nearly identical in shape/size, but only 3 or 5 Raptor engines. Ships to Brownsville in late 2019, may have a fuel loading test or two, maybe even a static fire. No hop tests.
- Slight changes to BFR design, but the design is mostly frozen.
- One more Starlink demo flight, 2-5 sats.
- Starlink launches begin in mid-2019, with <10 sats per launch on initial flights. Satellites work well, and SpaceX announces more details on Starlink (specific connection speeds, latency, and maybe pricing). Ground stations and consumer receivers shown off.
- No contracts awarded for BFR, but NASA and potentially DoD speak of interest in using BFR (likely in some press conference when asked).
- Mars landings still aimed for 2022/2024, with those dates becoming more and more unlikely.
- Minor failure/anomaly/issue in launch or testing, does not negatively affect outcome of flight.

Other US:
- Rocket Lab ramps up launch rate dramatically.
- LC-2 completed in Q4, begins launches in late Q4.
- Vulcan development continues, dual-BE-4 testing begins, pics of first tanks and/or stages are released
- New Shepard starts crewed flights in Q2, passenger flights in Q4
- New Glenn continues, with factory beginning production and LC-36 nearly finished. Potential first stage static fire at the end of the year.
- New Armstrong details revealed, no full unveil yet.
- OmegA ground work begins at KSC, with MLP-2 and HB-2 modifications beginning in Q2
- OmegA stage static fires begin and show good results
- Stratolaunch has first plane flight tests
- Virgin Galactic VSS Unity reaches space, may begin passenger flights in late 2019. Cosmic Girl & Launcher One have first orbital flight.
- At least one US rocket failure

Misc. International:
- Hayabusa-2 continuing operations at Ryugu, takes several samples before leaving orbit for Earth.
- Ariane 5 continues working well, Ariane 6 development continues.
- Soyuz continues rebuilding its record of reliability
- Chinese Modular Station work continues, international partners join in.
- At least one Chinese rocket failure, no injuries/fatalities.
« Last Edit: 11/14/2018 01:53 am by IanThePineapple »

Online A_M_Swallow

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #12 on: 11/14/2018 03:35 am »
SpaceX will get an unmanned Dragon 2 to the ISS.

Boeing and ULA will get an unmanned CST-100 to the ISS.

One of the CCDev companies will get astronauts to the ISS.

At least one of the Luna CATALYST companies will issue a video showing a prototype lunar lander flying on the Earth.

Offline Mr. Scott

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #13 on: 11/14/2018 04:40 am »
1. Every stupid idea returns in cycles of seven years.  So 2019 will be the reemergence of SSTO using liquid hydrogen fuel.
2. JWST renamed to PorkScopeAlpha.
3. Elon Musk decides to reinvent currency, except it is standardized by something that will take 1000 years to produce.
4. Insight lander crash lands on top of giant petrified tortoise on Mars.
5. Apollo 50th anniversary announcement is a reinactment of the 40th anniversary, which was a reinactment of the 30th anniversary.
6. Buzz designs a new T-shirt to halt Trump’s moon programs, and just go to Mars.
7. Jupiter finally explodes like in the movie 2010
8. Collier trophy: Urban Air Mobility concept by Uber.
9. Discovery that 99.6% of all exoplanets are really just Oort Cloud objects near our Solar System.
10. NASA successfully lands six astronauts on Mars.
11. Sandy Magnus, NASA Administrator
12. ISS is handed over to Star Fleet, given photon torpedos to battle asteroids and other debris.
13. Portable Nuclear Fusion baselined for all future manned missions.
14. New cargo aircraft and new airport runways designed to haul 10 meter diameter payloads for SLS Block II.
15. Star Wars maxes out at #2 movie for month of December.  Poor attendance bankrupts Disney.  Mickey Mouse traded to the Los Angeles Lakers to get LeBron happy again.  LeBron starts a new space company after realizing he can play better basketball on the Moon.
16. The moon explodes and escapes Earth’s orbit.  A crew on a lunar base figures out how to steer the moon’s trajectory and drive it around the solar system.  (Three words... Pyr. A. Mid.)
17. Congress decides to cut funding by increasing the budget. 


« Last Edit: 11/14/2018 04:45 am by Mr. Scott »
Don’t Panic

Offline p51

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #14 on: 11/14/2018 06:09 pm »
My two major predictions:
1. SLS/Orion will get pushed back another year, with NASA saying sometime in the mid 2020s for the first test flight. All bets will be off for any other SLS ever to fly
2. Space Tourism will still be pushed as being, "In the future" but with no dates given or hardware getting close to actually carrying people into space
I feel very confident in these predictions...  ;)
"The years forever fashion new dreams when old ones go. God pity a one-dream man."
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Offline freddo411

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #15 on: 11/14/2018 08:03 pm »

...
2. Space Tourism will still be pushed as being, "In the future" but with no dates given or hardware getting close to actually carrying people into space
I feel very confident in these predictions...  ;)

Thoughts and Questions:

* Would New Sheppard flying tourists negate your prediction?

* Will we see Russian passengers on Soyuz in 2019, and do they count?

* Yeah, you are mostly right.  But #DearMoon is a thing but it won't be flying for years.

Offline FinalFrontier

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #16 on: 11/14/2018 08:19 pm »
SLS will be threatened in the house, there will be the beginnings of a movement to cancel the program. No actual cancellation will happen until after the outcome of the 2020 general.

SpaceX will launch at least one FH mission. Commercial crew will go online before the year is over, not clear who will be first.

Mini BFS will be a flight test vehicle only, and may launch once or twice at most.

Full scale BFS flight test hops will slip to 2020.

Blue Origin will attempt to launch test crews no paying customers.

Vulcan will get through major design and some test milestones.

SLS will slip by another 12 months.
« Last Edit: 11/14/2018 08:20 pm by FinalFrontier »
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Offline p51

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #17 on: 11/14/2018 10:48 pm »

...
2. Space Tourism will still be pushed as being, "In the future" but with no dates given or hardware getting close to actually carrying people into space
I feel very confident in these predictions...  ;)

Thoughts and Questions:

* Would New Sheppard flying tourists negate your prediction?

* Will we see Russian passengers on Soyuz in 2019, and do they count?

* Yeah, you are mostly right.  But #DearMoon is a thing but it won't be flying for years.
You really think Blue Origin is going to be flying people into space next year? Maybe you know something I don't (which is very likely) but I wouldn't bet a buck on that happening next year.
As for Soyuz, I was just talking about commercial ventures. Yeah, of course, the Russians can (and likely will) send people to space for money. Thanks for bringing that up as I wasn't even think of that when I wrote that, and I should have said from commercial ventures.
"The years forever fashion new dreams when old ones go. God pity a one-dream man."
-Robert Goddard

Offline freddo411

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #18 on: 11/14/2018 11:13 pm »

...
2. Space Tourism will still be pushed as being, "In the future" but with no dates given or hardware getting close to actually carrying people into space
I feel very confident in these predictions...  ;)

Thoughts and Questions:

* Would New Sheppard flying tourists negate your prediction?

You really think Blue Origin is going to be flying people into space next year? Maybe you know something I don't (which is very likely) but I wouldn't bet a buck on that happening next year.

...

Nah, I would not bet on it either.   They have flown their rocket several times, so there is that.  And they have a fancy website ....  kidding.   

I think that they have the capability, but will the lawyers deem the risks small enough?

Offline p51

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #19 on: 11/14/2018 11:28 pm »
I think that they have the capability, but will the lawyers deem the risks small enough?
DING DING DING!
You hit it on the head.
I, too, think we'd have had space tourism by now commercially if the lawyers didn't keep the brakes locked on the idea right now until they're sure it'll be liability free.
"The years forever fashion new dreams when old ones go. God pity a one-dream man."
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