Author Topic: Worldwide Launch Rates  (Read 3559 times)

Online jebbo

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Worldwide Launch Rates
« on: 10/17/2018 02:56 pm »
I don't think I've seen a thread on this, so here are a couple of graphs showing worldwide (orbital) launches per year and a breakdown by country/region since 2000.

I've also included the per country data, as I don't think it is quite right before 2016.

Note: this year's numbers are a projection based on number so far and number of days remaining in the year ...
Edit: the linear fits assume +2.1/yr worldwide and +0.6/yr launches excluding China

--- Tony
« Last Edit: 10/21/2018 08:46 am by jebbo »

Offline ZachF

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Re: Worldwide launches
« Reply #1 on: 10/17/2018 03:42 pm »
I don't think Russia is getting 18 this year... October is halfway over and they're only at 11.
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Online jebbo

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Re: Worldwide launches
« Reply #2 on: 10/17/2018 03:49 pm »
Probably true, especially given the latest mishap, but the way I've done the by-country projection is to add the number with a definite launch date to those launched so far. By this metric, they have 7 to launch by the end of the year.

Note: the overall graph doesn't do this. It merely projects from number so far and days remaining, hence there is a small difference between the projections. From dates, I get to 105. From days remaining, 107.

--- Tony
« Last Edit: 10/17/2018 03:49 pm by jebbo »

Offline SpacedX

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Re: Worldwide launches
« Reply #3 on: 10/20/2018 04:37 pm »
This is interesting. Thanks jebbo.

My comments, seeking others' opinions:

USA numbers are not surprising. Slump in numbers reflects the disarray in their launch programs. Recent increase in numbers will likely continue and accelerate as commercial launch services take off and satellite constellations are deployed starting in a few years.

China's space efforts have been steady. Their numbers will likely also continue to increase.

Russia is in a bit of a spot. Their ability to compete will be hurting as others deploy newer, cheaper and profitable launch services (+human). WIth their pedigree in space exploration it would be regrettable for them to fade from leadership roles.

India's numbers will also increase and I think dramatically. I don't think pursuing a manned program is wise but they're doing great in unmanned space.

YMMV

Online freddo411

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Re: Worldwide launches
« Reply #4 on: 10/20/2018 05:32 pm »
I don't think I've seen a thread on this, so here are a couple of graphs showing worldwide (orbital) launches per year and a breakdown by country/region since 2000.

I've also included the per country data, as I don't think it is quite right before 2016.

Note: this year's numbers are a projection based on number so far and number of days remaining in the year ...
Edit: the linear fits assume +2.1/yr worldwide and +0.6/yr launches excluding China

--- Tony

Which country gets credit for the RocketLab launch from New Zealand?

Online ZachS09

Re: Worldwide launches
« Reply #5 on: 10/20/2018 10:03 pm »
I don't think I've seen a thread on this, so here are a couple of graphs showing worldwide (orbital) launches per year and a breakdown by country/region since 2000.

I've also included the per country data, as I don't think it is quite right before 2016.

Note: this year's numbers are a projection based on number so far and number of days remaining in the year ...
Edit: the linear fits assume +2.1/yr worldwide and +0.6/yr launches excluding China

--- Tony

Which country gets credit for the RocketLab launch from New Zealand?

The United States would get the Rocket Lab credit since the company originated in Huntington Beach, California. New Zealand is just a subsidiary.
« Last Edit: 10/20/2018 10:04 pm by ZachS09 »
Because the Falcon Heavy Test Flight was successful, it has inspired thousands of people to consider changing the future of space travel.

Offline edkyle99

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Re: Worldwide launches
« Reply #6 on: 10/21/2018 04:18 am »
Quote
Which country gets credit for the RocketLab launch from New Zealand?

The United States would get the Rocket Lab credit since the company originated in Huntington Beach, California. New Zealand is just a subsidiary.
Rocket Lab was founded in New Zealand in 2006 by New Zealander Peter Beck who is still the company's CEO.  Electron was developed and tested in New Zealand by New Zealanders who account for most of the company's employees.

If you consider Electron a "U.S." rocket, than Atlas V has to be a Russian rocket, since essentially the same part content ratio exists.

 - Ed Kyle 
« Last Edit: 10/21/2018 04:24 am by edkyle99 »

Offline vapour_nudge

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Re: Worldwide launches
« Reply #7 on: 10/21/2018 05:15 am »
And Ariane 5 is a French rocket whereas Vega is Italian. Now for Soyuz launches out of Korou....

Online jebbo

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Re: Worldwide launches
« Reply #8 on: 10/21/2018 08:44 am »
I've tried to be consistent with the numbers in the pinned consolidated launch schedule, so Soyuz out of Kourou are counted as Russian.


Online jebbo

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Re: Worldwide Launch Rates
« Reply #10 on: 11/10/2018 09:50 am »
A quick update ...

The total launches graph uses a projection based on the days remaining in the years from the last attempt, which works out at 101.

The launches by country adds the planned launches (only those with a specific date in the pinned consolidated schedule) to the number so far, which works out at 113.

So, it feels very likely we'll exceed the 100 barrier this year.

--- Tony

Offline VDD1991

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Space launch frequency for 2018
« Reply #11 on: 11/15/2018 01:01 am »
I had the chance to compare this year's tally of launches, and given the number of scheduled launches for the remainder of this year, this year could see the highest number of successful launches since 1990, at over 110 launches (there were 121 launches in 1990 alone; https://space.skyrocket.de/doc_chr/lau1990.htm). This high launch frequency is probably in part because of the increasing launch frequency of the Falcon rocket family.

Offline xavior

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Re: Worldwide Launch Rates
« Reply #12 on: 11/30/2018 07:18 am »
Russia won't make it, imo.

Online IanO

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Re: Space launch frequency for 2018
« Reply #13 on: 11/30/2018 11:46 pm »
I had the chance to compare this year's tally of launches, and given the number of scheduled launches for the remainder of this year, this year could see the highest number of successful launches since 1990, at over 110 launches (there were 121 launches in 1990 alone; https://space.skyrocket.de/doc_chr/lau1990.htm). This high launch frequency is probably in part because of the increasing launch frequency of the Falcon rocket family.

That and the surge of Chinese launches, more than doubling last year's tally.  Even with Falcon 9, the US launch rate of 33 in 2018 is only just now approaching the rates of the late 90's.

Next year also promises a high launch rate, if the new generation of light launchers stays on track and opens a new market segment.  Virgin, RocketLab, and Vector each have over a dozen launches on their manifest for 2019.
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Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: Space launch frequency for 2018
« Reply #14 on: 12/01/2018 06:54 am »
I had the chance to compare this year's tally of launches, and given the number of scheduled launches for the remainder of this year, this year could see the highest number of successful launches since 1990, at over 110 launches (there were 121 launches in 1990 alone; https://space.skyrocket.de/doc_chr/lau1990.htm). This high launch frequency is probably in part because of the increasing launch frequency of the Falcon rocket family.

That and the surge of Chinese launches, more than doubling last year's tally.  Even with Falcon 9, the US launch rate of 33 in 2018 is only just now approaching the rates of the late 90's.

Next year also promises a high launch rate, if the new generation of light launchers stays on track and opens a new market segment.  Virgin, RocketLab, and Vector each have over a dozen launches on their manifest for 2019.

Actually the total 2018 US launches possible is 37. However that includes the 3 Rocketlab Electron launches and the much delay ICON mission on the Pegasus XL.

Online jebbo

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Re: Worldwide Launch Rates
« Reply #15 on: 12/31/2018 03:02 pm »
Time for the final scores :-)

For the first time since 1992, we broke 100 launches worldwide, and broke it by a large margin!
China surpassed the US in number of launches
Russia's numbers seem to have stabilised

Space continues to be hard - see the failure rate attachment

--- Tony

Offline zeeshankareen0707

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Re: Worldwide Launch Rates
« Reply #16 on: 01/04/2019 10:21 am »
Russia & China is giving tough competition to US.

Offline Bismuth

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Re: Worldwide Launch Rates
« Reply #17 on: 01/17/2019 07:50 am »
Looking at the graphs I wonder if this is true or not.
How could there be 140 launches in the 60s when there were only two players in the game?  In fact all the number seem really high!  Were there really launches every 3 days in the 60s?

Offline Silmfeanor

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Re: Worldwide Launch Rates
« Reply #18 on: 01/17/2019 08:50 am »
Looking at the graphs I wonder if this is true or not.
How could there be 140 launches in the 60s when there were only two players in the game?  In fact all the number seem really high!  Were there really launches every 3 days in the 60s?

Yes. short-lived, often film-based reconnaissance satellites in low orbit and the cold war and all the spy-sats that entailed were prime drivers.

Offline edkyle99

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Re: Worldwide Launch Rates
« Reply #19 on: 01/17/2019 02:21 pm »
Looking at the graphs I wonder if this is true or not.
How could there be 140 launches in the 60s when there were only two players in the game?  In fact all the number seem really high!  Were there really launches every 3 days in the 60s?

Yes. short-lived, often film-based reconnaissance satellites in low orbit and the cold war and all the spy-sats that entailed were prime drivers.
That's right.  Many of the early reconsats were battery powered.  That meant that they had to go up, take their photos, and return film within a few days time.  1967 was an early peak because this was when the U.S. was just beginning to fly longer-lived missions that carried more film and lasted longer in space (leading to a reduced launch rate during the late 60s and 1970s) and when the USSR was really spooling up its early film-return program.  There were 39 R-7 launch attempts in 1967 - a single launch vehicle launching as many times that year as world-leading China did with all of its vehicles last year.  The USSR added 13 R-12, 12 R-36, 6 R-14, and 4 Protons.  The U.S. launched 28 Thors, 14 Atlases, 10 Titans, and 8 Scouts.  Europe and Japan performed a few launches.  Bringing up the rear was a single Saturn launch by the U.S., but it got all the press which is why most people don't know about all of the other launches!  (All of the Saturns combined never flew more than four times in a calendar year.  R-7 flew that many times in a week at times!)

 - Ed Kyle   
« Last Edit: 01/17/2019 02:28 pm by edkyle99 »

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