Author Topic: Implications of Soyuz MS-10 launch failure on ISS, crew rotation,Commercial Crew  (Read 54113 times)

Offline MattBaker

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Unless you are thinking of flying Soyuz-MS 11 unmanned atop the Soyuz-FG already scheduled for the launch?

I mean, before you have to leave the ISS uncrewed, look over that Soyuz-FG again thoroughly and then do a Hail Mary punt, maybe it goes to space, maybe it doesn't, what's the worst that could happen? You throw away 50 million dollars or blow up your launch pad? Meh. If it doesn't blow up, beautiful, just saved that crewed ISS record!

Very Kerbal-esque.

Online Phillip Clark

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Unless you are thinking of flying Soyuz-MS 11 unmanned atop the Soyuz-FG already scheduled for the launch?
I mean, before you have to leave the ISS uncrewed, look over that Soyuz-FG again thoroughly and then do a Hail Mary punt, maybe it goes to space, maybe it doesn't, what's the worst that could happen? You throw away 50 million dollars or blow up your launch pad? Meh. If it doesn't blow up, beautiful, just saved that crewed ISS record!
Very Kerbal-esque.

Remember that the next Russian launch was scheduled to be a Progress-MS which was also flying on a Soyuz-FG - so that could "man-rate" the vehicle once more.
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Offline Chasm

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Unless you are thinking of flying Soyuz-MS 11 unmanned atop the Soyuz-FG already scheduled for the launch?

Flying Soyuz MS-11 as scheduled in December 2018 -Without crew!- makes some sense. 2 months into the investigation should be enough for a go / no-go decision. MS-12 is scheduled for April 2019.
Replaces MS-09 on schedule. Crew can stay longer. Much easier to do the on orbit part of the unmanned CC tests.
Finds out very quickly if the rocket also has a problem. ;)
Worst case the current crew can still return before MS-09 runs out of time.

The accident happened early enough that there will be plenty of debris to study. Both in things to be found and things that are missing from the boosters. This is not a repeat of the Proton upper stage problem.

Offline Rocket Science

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On a lighter note typical astronaut thought..."Hey, that was quite a sim"! Welcome back guys and great work by the launch and rescue teams!
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Offline Ben the Space Brit

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How much data is downlinked and/or recorded on Soyuz? It occurs to me that, even if the downlink failed, the flight recorder on Soyuz MS-10 might be a treasure trove for the commissions.
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Online Phillip Clark

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Posted on the Russian launch schedule thread by Salo:

ttps://ria.ru/space/20181011/1530444660.html
Google translate:
Quote
BAIKONUR, Oct 11 - RIA News. Due to the heavy load on the current crew of the International Space Station, the next manned launch can be carried out ahead of schedule, but only after the investigation into the current Soyuz accident has ended, a source at Baikonur told RIA Novosti.

“The next launch will be attempted by mid-November, it will pass ahead of schedule. Three people remain on the ISS, this is ineffective,” he said.

It seems a little optimistic to me.
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Offline Ben the Space Brit

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The Russians are notorious, perhaps unfairly, for fixed-duration and fixed-outcome commissions of investigation. However, this wasn't a lost satellite or dry cargo for the station. A NASA astronaut just had to 'enjoy' a 7g abort. I don't think NASA will accept or be permitted to accept a typical in-and-out whitewash and execution (metaphorical or otherwise) of some designated scapegoat.
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Offline MattBaker

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Mid-November does sound like the Progress you mentioned though, in the ISS calendar that's October 31, two or three weeks later now?

But yeah, sure sounds quick, I wonder what the MS-11 crew thinks about all this besides "Eh, at least David Saint-Jacques is a medical doctor, better than crash-landing with a fighter pilot and a geophysicist."

Offline Nightstalker89

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Of course if Russia can launch an unmanned life boat that opens some interesting options for DM-1 and DM-2.  You could extend DM-1's stay at the station as a life boat and launch 5 or 6 crew on DM-2.  This would give you two return craft but keep the ISS at it's crew of 5.  Starliner will not be ready to be involved nor could it carry extra crew members like Dragon could..

Offline MattBaker

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I'd personally want to see my lifeboat successfully deorbit once, especially if it's a new capsule, but maybe that's why I'm not an astronaut.

Online Phillip Clark

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Mid-November does sound like the Progress you mentioned though, in the ISS calendar that's October 31, two or three weeks later now?
But yeah, sure sounds quick, I wonder what the MS-11 crew thinks about all this besides "Eh, at least David Saint-Jacques is a medical doctor, better than crash-landing with a fighter pilot and a geophysicist."

I read the piece that the mid-November launch would be Soyuz-MS 11.   Maybe the Russians are thinking that launching Progress-MS 10 on time would open the door to the Soyuz launch being in November.
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Offline clongton

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Not undiplomatic at all.  The Shuttle was retired because it was unsafe...

Not true.
The Shuttle was safe to fly so long as it was flown safely.
Both Shuttle losses were due entirely to administrative mismanagement.
Challenger: Management decision to launch outside safe operating parameters and against ATK engineering advice.
Columbia:   Management decision to dismiss potential tile damage after actually seeing foam strike on wing LE. Considered foam too fluffy to cause structural damage. Again, ignoring engineering advice to the contrary.
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Online AncientU

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Not undiplomatic at all.  The Shuttle was retired because it was unsafe...

Not true.
The Shuttle was safe to fly so long as it was flown safely.
Both Shuttle losses were due entirely to administrative mismanagement.
Challenger: Management decision to launch outside safe operating parameters and against ATK engineering advice.
Columbia:   Management decision to dismiss potential tile damage after actually seeing foam strike on wing LE. Considered foam too fluffy to cause structural damage. Again, ignoring engineering advice to the contrary.

You deleted the qualifier...
Quote
The Shuttle was retired because it was unsafe (among other reasons).

Same as deleting your qualifier...
Quote
The Shuttle was safe to fly so long as it was flown safely.
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Offline grdja

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The possible issue they are reporting, one of boosters hitting 2nd stage...

Did anything like that happen before in 52 years of Soyuz launches?

Offline clongton

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You deleted the qualifier...
Quote
The Shuttle was retired because it was unsafe (among other reasons).

The qualifier doesn't change the statement you made that Shuttle was unsafe, which is not true.
Let's not go there in this thread. It's OT.
« Last Edit: 10/11/2018 01:25 PM by clongton »
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Online Phillip Clark

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The possible issue they are reporting, one of boosters hitting 2nd stage...
Did anything like that happen before in 52 years of Soyuz launches?

I cannot recall this in any of the R-7 launch vehicle failures.
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Offline Zed_Noir

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Of course if Russia can launch an unmanned life boat that opens some interesting options for DM-1 and DM-2.  You could extend DM-1's stay at the station as a life boat and launch 5 or 6 crew on DM-2.  This would give you two return craft but keep the ISS at it's crew of 5.  Starliner will not be ready to be involved nor could it carry extra crew members like Dragon could..

AIUI the number of life boat seats determines the maximum ISS crew number, not the number of lifeboats. So send up 5 or 6 crew on the DM-2 flight after a successful unmanned DM-1 flight. And rotate the whole crew out after the follow-on crewed flight arrives at the ISS. Essentially drafting the first Starliner crew plus a cosmonaut for the extra crew members. Presuming the Soyuz stand down is prolonged.

Offline clongton

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The possible issue they are reporting, one of boosters hitting 2nd stage...

Did anything like that happen before in 52 years of Soyuz launches?

Not to my knowledge. The only thing that comes to mind is the Falcon-1 2nd reconnect at stage separation. Other than that - nothing.
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I started my career on the Saturn-V F-1A engine

Online Chris Bergin

Apologies, not enough time to read every post, but any idea if this rules out the two EVAs? Only one person in the Station during such events?

Offline woods170

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Expect ISS to be decrewed. The Russians will know potentially within a few weeks how long the delog and investigation will take. If it's more than a couple months NASA will pull our guys off out of caution more than anything.
And then there is what POTUS may do. Very unlikely he doesn't get involved.
Also there is congress. Nobody in congress is friendly with the Russians right now and that won't change after the election. Expect them to get involved on this heavily.

Personally I think there's a chance we are done on Russian vehicles after this.

In my opinion you will be proven wrong on just about every point in your post. Except the part that the Russians will find the cause of this mishap within weeks. That they will IMO.

ISS is not going to be de-crewed. As another poster pointed out up-thread there are more options then de-crewing ISS or accelerating CCP. The latter can't be done anyway.
« Last Edit: 10/11/2018 01:40 PM by woods170 »

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