SpaceX F9 : HAKUTO-R : CCSFS SLC-40 : 11 December 2022 (07:38 UTC)

[TJL]

If schedule holds up, launch of Hakuto-R lunar mission will come exactly 50 years to the day after the Apollo 17 launch!

[LouScheffer]

Two Falcon 9 vehicles now that have been stacked and scrubbed and fallen out of the campaign flow in recent weeks, one on each coast.

The air travel industry has this problem, too.   The passengers are loaded and ready to go, but some mechanical flaw is found.  They deal with this in at least 3 ways:
 (a) Minimum equipment lists.  There are some flaws that are not important enough to delay takeoff.  I think (could be wrong) that Russia uses, or used to use, this method.  After some point in the countdown, if a single unit in a triply redundant system goes offline, they launch anyway. The thinking (I believe) is that a full recycle gives lots of other systems a chance to go wrong, and might be counterproductive.
 (b) Quick repairs. If the problem is simple, the airlines send a repairman to the ready-to-go plane.  This is used in spaceflight for ground equipment, but repairs to the rocket itself almost always take more time than the launch window.
 (c) Backup transport:  Airlines often keep a few spare planes around for cases where the problem takes too long to be fixed.  In these cases, the passengers and cargo need to be moved to the new plane, but it's faster than waiting for repairs.  SpaceX, with its fleet of boosters, could possibly do this, reducing indefinite delays to a few days.

Of course the cost of these would need to weighed against the odds of them helping.   Considering the weather delays are far more common, it may not be worth addressing mechanical delays except through trying to minimize them.

[Ken the Bin]

L-3 weather forecast.  >90% 'Go' for December 7 and December 8.  All Additional Risk Criteria are Low for both days.

[GewoonLukas_]

NextSpaceflight (Updated 4 December)

Landing now listed for Landing Zone 2. Making this the first time a Falcon 9 will land on LZ-2. Previous landings on LZ-2 have only been Falcon Heavy Side Boosters.

https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/6939

[Alexphysics]

Wrongly put as LZ-2, I corrected that back to LZ-1. None of the F9 boosters is landing on LZ-2.

[lrk]

So they anticipate being able to safe and remove the OneWeb booster in <10 hours after landing? 

[edkyle99]

So they anticipate being able to safe and remove the OneWeb booster in <10 hours after landing? 

Why would they need to do so?  Boosters have landed nearly simultaneously on LZ1 and 2 during four Falcon Heavy missions.  (As long as they remember to program the second not to land on the same Zone as the first!)

 - Ed Kyle

[Orbiter]

So they anticipate being able to safe and remove the OneWeb booster in <10 hours after landing? 

Why would they need to do so?  Boosters have landed nearly simultaneously on LZ1 and 2 during four Falcon Heavy missions.  (As long as they remember to program the second not to land on the same Zone as the first!)

 - Ed Kyle

Because if Alex is correct and LZ-2 will not be utilized for either upcoming launch on the 6th/7th, both B1073-5 and B1069-4 will be conducting landings at LZ-1 within hours of one another.

[Rondaz]

SpaceX's Japanese Moon lander launch back on the calendar after indefinite delay

https://twitter.com/Teslarati/status/1599628061259231232

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Hmm, ispace tweeted a few minutes ago that launch date is still under discussion

twitter.com/ispace_hakuto_r/status/1599743974679642113

Daruma, a traditional Japanese lucky charm.

Engineers at ispace put eyes on Daruma dolls to mark milestones.

This golden daruma had the first eye at the beginning of the lander's environmental testing and the second at the completion.

https://twitter.com/ispace_hakuto_r/status/1599743984951128065

Other daruma will have eyes after launch.

ispace is currently in ongoing discussions with SpaceX to determine a new launch date for Mission 1.

We will inform you again as soon as it is confirmed, so please continue to support us.

Let's go to the Moon!

#月を生活圏に #lunarquest

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/spacetfrs/status/1599773945263230978

Cape Canaveral/Kennedy Space Center, FL temporary restriction:
From December 06, 2022 at 2202 UTC to To December 06, 2022 at 2305 UTC
Altitude: From the surface to space
https://tfr.faa.gov/save_pages/detail_2_0068.html
Likely:OneWeb-15 (rocketlaunch.live/launch/oneweb-…)

Edit to add: mis-attributed, likely for this launch

https://twitter.com/spacetfrs/status/1599805669837881346

[Ken the Bin]

Edit to add: mis-attributed, likely for this launch

Based on the times, they're all OneWeb.

OneWeb:

Primary Day = Tuesday, December 6 at ~22:37 UTC (~17:37 EST) (convert time).
Backup Day #1 = Wednesday, December 7 at ~22:32 UTC (~17:32 EST) (convert time).
Backup Day #2 = Thursday, December 8 at ~22:27 UTC (~17:27 EST) (convert time).
Backup Day #3 = Friday, December 9 at ~22:23 UTC (~17:23 EST) (convert time).
Backup Day #4 = Saturday, December 10 at ~22:19 UTC (~17:19 EST) (convert time).
Backup Day #5 = Sunday, December 11 at ~22:14 UTC (~17:14 EST) (convert time).
Backup Day #6 = Monday, December 12 at ~22:10 UTC (~17:10 EST) (convert time).

HAKUTO-R:

Primary Day = Wednesday, December 7 at ~08:04 UTC (~03:04 EST) (convert time).
Backup Day #1 = Thursday, December 8 at ~07:56 UTC (~02:56 EST) (convert time).
Backup Day #2 = Friday, December 9 at ~07:49 UTC (~02:49 EST) (convert time).
Backup Day #3 = Saturday, December 10 at ~07:44 UTC (~02:44 EST) (convert time).
Backup Day #4 = Sunday, December 11 at ~07:38 UTC (~02:38 EST) (convert time).
Backup Day #5 = Monday, December 12 at ~07:31 UTC (~02:31 EST) (convert time).
Backup Day #6 = Tuesday, December 13 at ~07:25 UTC (~02:25 EST) (convert time).

[Ken the Bin]

NGA cancellation notice.  HAKUTO-R is now TBD.

052235Z DEC 22
NAVAREA IV 1308/22.
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
FLORIDA.
CANCEL NAVAREA IV 1286/22 AND THIS MSG, 
OPERATIONS CANCELED.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/ispace_hakuto_r/status/1600420652472619008

Notice of scheduled launch date:
Thank you for always supporting "HAKUTO-R".

As a result of discussions with SpaceX, ispace has decided to update the scheduled launch date for Mission 1 to Sunday, December 11, 16:38 (Japan time).

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/ispace_hakuto_r/status/1600420656277245953

On the day of the launch, in addition to YouTube distribution by SpaceX, we plan to distribute the state of the control room from the ispace account! Please take a look.

Learn more: ispace-inc.com/jpn/news/?p=40…

#月を生活圏に #lunarquest

https://ispace-inc.com/jpn/news/?p=4087

Google translation:

ispace, private lunar exploration program "HAKUTO-R" mission 1 launch date updated to December 11, 2022

December 7, 2022

ispace Co., Ltd. (Chuo-ku, Tokyo, Representative Director: Takeshi Hakamada, hereinafter referred to as ispace) has decided the scheduled launch date and time of the private lunar exploration program "HAKUTO-R" Mission 1 with SpaceX, which will carry out the launch, as follows. We would like to inform you that we have decided to update as follows.

The launch of Mission 1 was postponed due to additional rocket inspection work. The lander (lunar lander) is continuing charging work while mounted on the rocket fairing (the part where the payload is loaded at the tip of the rocket). There is no problem with the lander itself, and there is no change in the operation schedule after launch. At present, the lunar landing is scheduled for around the end of April 2023.

On the day of the launch, in addition to the YouTube distribution of the launch by SpaceX, we plan to distribute the state of the mission control center etc. from the ispace account. Details will be announced on HP and SNS.

ispace official website: https://ispace-inc.com/jpn/

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/mbrspacecentre/status/1600400154556715008

A new launch date is set for the Emirates Lunar Mission on Sunday 11 December at 11:38 AM (UAE time).

#EmiratesLunarMission
#UAEtotheMoon

[Svetoslav]

... due to additional rocket inspection work.

So it's SpaceX fault for these delays.

[ZachS09]

... due to additional rocket inspection work.

So it's SpaceX fault for these delays.

Not SpaceX’s fault. It just so happened they caught this technical problem, and it’s causing the launch teams to fall behind the launch cadence pace they had kept up the last 11 months.

[LouScheffer]

... due to additional rocket inspection work.

So it's SpaceX fault for these delays.

I surprised this does not happen more often.  The key to rocket (and airplane) safety is systematically looking at any flaws that are encountered.  This means that when a static fire or flight reveals a problem, all other flights are halted until the root cause is found, and the question answered "Could this problem affect any other rockets in our fleet?".   And if the cause is (say) deep in the guts of the engine, this inspection/fix might be time consuming, especially where the engines are already mounted on rockets.

So any launch has the potential to delay all subsequent launches.  We saw this happen a few years ago, where a change in an anodizing process for some small part in the Merlin engine resulted in off-nominal engine performance.   All launches were held up, and a number of them had to have engine replacements.

This process is not very visible when launches are months apart, when there is plenty of time to make sure the next launch does not have this particular problem.   But it's much more visible when you have launches every week and a fleet of boosters to check.  And in the worst case it can extremely visible, as when an entire fleet of rockets/planes is grounded until the problem is fixed, and fixing the problem is hard.  This is exactly what happened to the Shuttle, and the 737 Max.  But taking problems seriously is the best way we know of to make systems safe.  I'm happy SpaceX is doing this, despite the delays.

[Svetoslav]

... due to additional rocket inspection work.

So it's SpaceX fault for these delays.

I surprised this does not happen more often.  The key to rocket (and airplane) safety is systematically looking at any flaws that are encountered.  This means that when a static fire or flight reveals a problem, all other flights are halted until the root cause is found, and the question answered "Could this problem affect any other rockets in our fleet?".   And if the cause is (say) deep in the guts of the engine, this inspection/fix might be time consuming, especially where the engines are already mounted on rockets.

So any launch has the potential to delay all subsequent launches.  We saw this happen a few years ago, where a change in an anodizing process for some small part in the Merlin engine resulted in off-nominal engine performance.   All launches were held up, and a number of them had to have engine replacements.

This process is not very visible when launches are months apart, when there is plenty of time to make sure the next launch does not have this particular problem.   But it's much more visible when you have launches every week and a fleet of boosters to check.  And in the worst case it can extremely visible, as when an entire fleet of rockets/planes is grounded until the problem is fixed, and fixing the problem is hard.  This is exactly what happened to the Shuttle, and the 737 Max.  But taking problems seriously is the best way we know of to make systems safe.  I'm happy SpaceX is doing this, despite the delays.

I agree with you, if this is indeed the case. The problem is - we don't know if it's true. SpaceX doesn't inform us what's going on. This is quite unusual. Remember, we've always praised the openness of SpaceX (in contrast to Blue Origin, for example). This sudden change is making me (and not only me, I presume) suspicious.