Author Topic: When will we reach 100 launches per year again, and when will the record fall?  (Read 5555 times)

Offline speedevil

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The real deal about large number of launches is by using solid fuel launcher just like missiles. ISRO's SSLV is the only one that holds promise for that. No matter what reusable rockets spacex use, the cost of reusing and assembling itself will be very high.
They are aiming at the cost of reusing and assembling at being under $300K per flight.
For 100 ton + payloads.
Eventually, admittedly.
(30% of passenger transit variant total launch price)

Even F9S1 is now reportedly lasting much better and on target for very large cycle counts without major refurbishment.

Solid rockets are not especially cheap.

Online Lar

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No matter what reusable rockets spacex use, the cost of reusing and assembling itself will be very high.
{{citation needed}}

I love when people make this unfounded claim... as if they know what SpaceX cost numbers actually are. It makes them look uninformed, or worse.

When George Sower did it, we gave him some slack, since he was, in fact, a rocket scientist. But that was years ago and his model has been thoroughly shredded. Some random person? Not so much slack, sorry. Specific numbers to back your claim please.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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No matter what reusable rockets spacex use, the cost of reusing and assembling itself will be very high.
{{citation needed}}

I love when people make this unfounded claim... as if they know what SpaceX cost numbers actually are. It makes them look uninformed, or worse.

When George Sower did it, we gave him some slack, since he was, in fact, a rocket scientist. But that was years ago and his model has been thoroughly shredded. Some random person? Not so much slack, sorry. Specific numbers to back your claim please.
We are wandering OT.

SpaceX for this year 2018 will use 14 or 15 used boosters out of a total of used and new 24 boosters. That is a ratio of used to total of 58% or 62%. Meaning that SpaceX is using mainly used liquid boosters.

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Per Gunter Space Page we are at 97 for the yeAr 2018 and there are 17 more with a specific date scheduled for remaining weeks of 2018. We will cross the 100 mark, but it is still unknown though just how far. Just for the remainder of November there is 2 almost for sure with another Chinese possible.  Meaning it is possible that the 100 mark could be reached before December.

https://space.skyrocket.de/doc_chr/lau2018.htm
« Last Edit: 11/22/2018 03:39 pm by oldAtlas_Eguy »

Online high road

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Only 94 completely successfull launches, however. Do failed launches like Soyuz count?

Online ZachS09


Only 94 completely successful launches. However, do failed launches like Soyuz count?

No. They do not count. However, they count towards the ATTEMPTED launches throughout 2018.
Because the Falcon Heavy Test Flight was successful, it has inspired thousands of people to consider changing the future of space travel.

Offline Tywin

Well the first achievement is already marked 8) 101 launched at this moment...and the year is not over ;)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_in_spaceflight

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Per Gumter Space Page:

102 Attempts
100 Successes

This does not count today's F9 CRS launch.

Today launch plus the others with actual dates listed count of 13 more for December.

https://space.skyrocket.de/doc_chr/lau2018.htm

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Per Gumter Space Page:

102 Attempts
100 Successes

This does not count today's F9 CRS launch.

Today launch plus the others with actual dates listed count of 13 more for December.

https://space.skyrocket.de/doc_chr/lau2018.htm
Update

111 attempts
109 successful

There are at least 2 chances to break 110 successful.

Offline Tywin

I'm think so we have a prevision of 177 spaceflight for 2019...

The world record fall this year?


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_in_spaceflight

Online edkyle99

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Per Gumter Space Page:

102 Attempts
100 Successes

This does not count today's F9 CRS launch.

Today launch plus the others with actual dates listed count of 13 more for December.

https://space.skyrocket.de/doc_chr/lau2018.htm
Update

111 attempts
109 successful

There are at least 2 chances to break 110 successful.
2018 ended up with 111 launch vehicle successes in 114 attempts.  One of the failures was to a badly incorrect orbit.  The other two failed to orbit.  These don't include the Zuma failure, which wasn't a launch vehicle failure specifically.  The last time there were this many orbital flights was in 1990, when there were 114 successes in 120 attempts, world-wide.

Will the old records of 126 successes (1983 and 1984) and 139 attempts (1967) be topped this year or in coming years?  I believe they will eventually, but I'm not confident it will be this year.  We have, for example, SpaceX saying it will fly less this year.  We also have hints of a potential impending world-wide recession, which could put a serious strain on space funding, both public and private.  Some of the companies chasing space may not survive.  Others may switch to other things. 

 - Ed Kyle
« Last Edit: 01/04/2019 02:26 am by edkyle99 »

Offline skybum

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I'm think so we have a prevision of 177 spaceflight for 2019...

The world record fall this year?


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_in_spaceflight

At the beginning of 2018, Wikipedia listed 168 flights planned. Many of those slipped, and we got 114. I have no doubt that many will slip this year too, so I agree with Ed -- I don't expect 2019 to surpass the all-time records for either attempts or successes (especially with so many new vehicles flying).

That said, I also think there are a number of missions for 2019 which aren't on any manifests yet -- such as StarLink. SpaceX and RocketLab, and perhaps others, now have the ability to do late additions to their launch manifest in a way that just hasn't been possible before. 2019 should be the year that reusable and/or mass-manufactured LVs start make the launch industry much more just-in-time than it traditionally has been. This should increase launch volumes while decreasing predictability.

(BTW: :I expect both the attempt & success records to fall in 2020, fairly independent of the macroeconomic climate.)

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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I see 2019 shaping up into a near repeat of 2018. Although the geo launches will have a decrease there are other new payloads (industry new categories) showing up this year to keep the total probably above 100. But I think it will fall short of the 111-112 depending on how you count them success of 2018.
« Last Edit: 01/12/2019 03:49 pm by oldAtlas_Eguy »

Offline Comga

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It seems like there is some consensus that records wonít be broken in 2019.
Besides the unknowable impacts of developing markets, an issue for 2020 or 2021 is the schedule of BFH 2 or 3.
Musk has said that he sees no point in an SSTO with zero payload, but I doubt that such a thing can be built.
(Yes, I am disputing Muskís statement, but not with the usual stupidity. A new one?)
Payload to orbit is such a marginal thing that if and when he gets a prototype making low orbit, small improvements will leave some practical payload.
Given that others are building entire business around rockets with capacities of 100-200 kg, for $2-5M per flight, itís got to be cheaper to do the same on a fully reusable vehicle.
This could be a reason to fly BFH-2/3 many times per year.
Whether this replaces the small launchers or expands the market is perhaps a flip side of the question for this thread topic.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

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