Author Topic: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights  (Read 4564 times)

Online Coastal Ron

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #40 on: 09/15/2018 07:34 pm »
Manned spaceflight is not a strategic thing. Having your own independent access to space for strategic (and thus unmanned) assets IS however. Hence why Europe has Ariane, has its own weather sats, has its own Earth observation program, has its own data relay sats, has its own spysats, has its own maritime support sats, has its own GPS equivalent, etc. etc.

What strategic value does having your own Mars orbiter, Jupiter satellite, Mars rover or space telescope have?

Those assets provide value - science data in the examples you've noted, and for other remote systems they also may provide tactical information such as communications and location information.

In order for a crew-capable spacecraft to produce value it needs to either perform a task in space on it's own (like the Shuttle could do with Spacelab) or be just a transportation system to take the crew to a place they can create value (like the ISS).

So at least for Europe, having a transportation system to space only makes sense if you have a destination in space that you want to have humans at.

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And the $3 billion dollars spent on Hermes suggest that they can and will spend lots of money on things that, as you point out, don't have a strategic imperative.

I don't know the history of Hermes, but maybe they had a destination in mind when they were developing it, like the ISS, or maybe they did what governments go sometimes - spend money unwisely.

It would be great to expand the number of transportation systems that can take humans to space, but I'm not sure I see the business case for Europe to do that yet.

Is there a business case?
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline Rik ISS-fan

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #41 on: 09/15/2018 11:22 pm »
Just look at the budgets!!!
NASA has a 19Billion annual budget. 9 Billion goes to ISS & Exploration. [NASA NAC Chart]
ESA has <6 billion annual budget (if you combine all national space agencies budgets you'll end up below 9 billion.).
Less then 750mln is available for Human spaceflight and Exploration (? & microG).
So the budget available for human spaceflight in the US is 10x the size of the budget in Europe.
In another NAC HEO document [2] there is a more detailed NASA budget breakdown. And another interesting statistic on page 60: the visiting vehicle flights to the ISS were 13% of global annual launch demand in 2017. (12 of 92). So ISS is a mayor contribution to the space industry. I think few people realize this, unfortunately.

The development of a manned launch capability will be a optional ESA program. ESA memberstates could decide if they want to contribute to it. 

Woods, AFAIK ESA and Europe haven't all the strategic capabilities you list.
So there are more urgent capabilities requiring the funding. And then I've neglected non-space related stuff.

There are also EU REACH regulations that try to force the phaseout of Hydrazine, MON, MMH and UDMH. So all US manned launch systems could be banned because they use these fuels. (AFAIK only BlueOrigin tries to use green propellants.) Besides afaik there aren't engines in Europe for a launch escape system.
Given all these conditions, I think it would be plain stupid to try to get funding for a manned launch capability, because this could backfire on the long run. For the 2019 ESA ministerial they could only try to get funding to develop the technologies required for a manned launcher; Prometheus, SpaceRider, green propulsion and ECLSS systems. I forgot EXPERT the reentry demonstrator that is shelved in a cleanroom because the launch couldn't happen / be financed :-[

@Coastal Ron, wasn't the Copernicus orbital laboratory the destination for spacerider?
Maybe the US decision to end the ISS program in 2024. EU/ESA's requirement to be able to do microG research and the concepts to do that are the seed for the statement of Israel (Arianespace CEO).

Late edit: In my oppinion a Spacerider derived manned launch system is far beter than Dreamchaser.
« Last Edit: 09/15/2018 11:34 pm by Rik ISS-fan »

Offline TripleSeven

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #42 on: 09/15/2018 11:49 pm »


Odd comment. After Apollo we operated the Space Shuttle for 30 years, and the International Space Station has been occupied for almost 18 years. Just those two efforts have been major differences from Apollo.

Even Arianespace has changed over the decades, and now not only wants a new launcher (i.e. Ariane 6) but a crew-capable spacecraft. Change is constant.


LOL.  none of them had major differences from Apollo.  they all used government resources, government financed programs, government build programs,...the only real difference in the space station came with commercial cargo and crew

Arianespace has only changed launch vehicles...but they are doing the same thing
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You missed the forest for the trees again...   ;)

No


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Do you have anything to say about THIS topic?

For me, I don't think Arianespace can get the funding for a full-up crew-capable spacecraft program, and though Europeans are very resourceful people in general, I'm not sure they have the knowledge and leadership needed for a cost-efficient development program.

It would be understandable if Europe wants to develop their own indigenous design, but I would hope they would consider licensing an existing one - like Dream Chaser...  :D

I have said what I wanted to say.  The Europeans see no value in human spaceflight.  they are happy to do barter arraingements with NASA because that "keeps them in the game" for not a lot of money...and NASA is  desperate to keep them in the game

the Europeans are far more practical in terms of what they spend money on.  they are spending "a lot" of money developing their own Global sat system.  why?  they feel it is essential to being not dependent on the US, they have tried doing business with the Russians and gotten burned on it..

and really the US wants them to develop Galileo.  this is the entire essence of GPS III...the two nav systems will be the world premier global navigation system...and they are happy to be a part of that...they can explain why money is being spent on it to the taxpayers

they dont think that they can do that for human spaceflight. 

they could do the program.  they have the technology, the technological base, and without a doubt the skill to do it.  they just dont think that they can sell it to the people who pay the money.

I dont see Europe developing an independent human spaceflight program.  they see no value in it for the Euro's spent.  there are more pressing issues both in space and on earth. 

eventually you will see Euro control and at some point what I think is going to be called "NorAmerica" control merge and there will be unified ATC from US/Canada all the way to Turkey.  and it is both the US and Euro space base nav and ATC control systems that are doing it.  that is a big space priority for them and the US right nwo

and that will change history
« Last Edit: 09/15/2018 11:52 pm by TripleSeven »

Offline TripleSeven

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #43 on: 09/15/2018 11:55 pm »

I don't know the history of Hermes, but maybe they had a destination in mind when they were developing it, like the ISS, or maybe they did what governments go sometimes - spend money unwisely.

It would be great to expand the number of transportation systems that can take humans to space, but I'm not sure I see the business case for Europe to do that yet.

Is there a business case?

there has not been and except for commercial crew, is not today a business case for human spaceflight.

Hermes was all about "pride" otherwise it had no real practical value.  did not even try to have

Offline Lar

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #44 on: 09/16/2018 02:55 am »
I think that when people feel it necessary to say "I have said what I wanted to say" that.. .maybe... they should stop talking.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online ncb1397

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #45 on: 09/16/2018 04:39 am »
Just look at the budgets!!!
NASA has a 19Billion annual budget. 9 Billion goes to ISS & Exploration. [NASA NAC Chart]
ESA has <6 billion annual budget (if you combine all national space agencies budgets you'll end up below 9 billion.).

I don't think it is that bad. This is what I got:

ESA:$6.5 B
DLR:$2.6 B
CNES:$2.8 B
UKSA:$.5 B
SNSA:$.1 B
ASI:$1.5 B
INTA: .2 B
Total:$14.2 B

There may be some money that is counted twice(ESA money that is managed by one of the local agencies for example) and some of these agencies have roles beyond NASA(DLR for instance does Energy research like DoE), but I think it is well over $10 B. I also maybe missed a local agency with a budget that isn't a rounding error.

edit:
base it off of this and you could do a one man vehicle on a pretty tight budget:
« Last Edit: 09/16/2018 08:01 am by ncb1397 »

Online Coastal Ron

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #46 on: 09/16/2018 05:09 am »
Odd comment. After Apollo we operated the Space Shuttle for 30 years, and the International Space Station has been occupied for almost 18 years. Just those two efforts have been major differences from Apollo.

none of them had major differences from Apollo.

You are WAY over generalizing. Like saying none of us is different because we're made from the same types of atoms.

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The Europeans see no value in human spaceflight.

They have demonstrated that they see value in human spaceflight by participating in the biggest space station program in the history of humanity.

And they previously thought they had an interest in creating their own space transportation system for humans too, but decided it wasn't worth pursuing.

But, as I already pointed out (and you appear to agree with), as of today they don't have enough of a business case to merit building their own space transportation system. However that could change if the cost were low enough, and they were willing to swallow their pride and license some American systems.

America has not returned to our Moon because of a lack of interest, but because of a lack of money. So the focus on lowering the cost to access space by American entities could end up helping the Europeans to be more active in space too. But that may not happen until New Glenn, and possibly the BFR/BFS are operating.
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline JMSC

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #47 on: 09/17/2018 05:25 pm »
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And the $3 billion dollars spent on Hermes suggest that they can and will spend lots of money on things that, as you point out, don't have a strategic imperative.

Quote
I don't know the history of Hermes, but maybe they had a destination in mind when they were developing it, like the ISS, or maybe they did what governments go sometimes - spend money unwisely.

It would be great to expand the number of transportation systems that can take humans to space, but I'm not sure I see the business case for Europe to do that yet.

Is there a business case?

Its a very long time ago but from my space fanboy days in High School I do remember reading about the Hermes Program.  In essence the original Columbus program consisted of a good deal more than just the Columbus module attached to the ISS.  There was a polar platform and a Man Tended Free flyer as well.  Hermes was primarily intended to service the canceled Man Tended Free flyer and potentially make visits to the ISS as well. 

Is there a pure business case for Europe?  Probably not, manned space is still expensive even if a capsule derived from current US hardware would be much cheaper than Hermes.  However, I think there is a very good business case for Arianespace as a manned program, and possibly a resurrection of free flyer could create a need for 2-4 A6 launches a year.  After all it was government payloads that kept ULA and US launch capabilities going in dark days of the 90s and 00s when Arianespace and ILS essentially split the global commercial market between then.  And if Europe really wants to maintain the kind of capability A64 provides and have a nice kind of plant the flag national pride type program, a manned space program would work from that point view.  I personally think Arianespace is looking at the commercial GEO Sat marketplace and has determined that for the next decade or so they can't really count on getting the required 6-7 A64 launches each year thru 2030, they have based their industrial program for A6 on.  A manned program, if it didn't cost too much would likely guarantee they would launch at least 7 A64s a year (possibly more) and that they would still had a strong program when they move to reusable rockets sometime in the 2030s.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Columbus_Man-Tended_Free_Flyer

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