Author Topic: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights  (Read 4574 times)

Offline TripleSeven

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #20 on: 09/14/2018 02:29 pm »
If the ISS gets extended to 2030, Europe could take the work done so far on Orion Service Module, integrate it with a capsule/spaceplane and use this system for both crew and cargo deliveries on Ariane 6. Work on ATV has already given Europe autonomous docking capabilities. A scheme like this would push up the launch rate of Ariane 6, pay for European use of the ISS and reduce dependency on Russia. Such a system could even potentially visit the future Chinese Space Station.

On a minor note, it's kind of embarrassing Europe lacks an indigenous human spaceflight capability. It's not a money problem, collectively European states have a GDP equivalent to the United States and far greater than China, Russia or India. It's not a technical problem either, the know-how exists in Europe to achieve this and even greater things. If it really wanted, Europe could have a lunar base with a completely reusable architecture based on refueling upper stages of Ariane-6 sized vehicles and ISRU. What seems to be lacking is the will. Part of this might be due to its terrible legacy with colonialism, which is understandable: European empires committed massive crimes against humanity all around the world and anything that sounds expansionist or colonial has a bad reputation on the continent. Whatever the block is, I hope it is overcome and the peaceful exploration and settlement of space becomes a driving force in Europe in the near future. Who knows, perhaps even Space Solar Power would offer Europe in the future a way to ween itself off Russian gas :/

I dont agree with that last paragraph.  the Europeans are doing nothing that the US is nt doing...we dont have the will to go to the Moon or have a robust exploration program either...we simply spend the money to keep the people in business on the earth who tinker at human spaceflight...if we had the will to have an exploration program we would cancel SLS and Orion and well "GO"


the Europeans just dont see any real thing in human space exploration...reallyneither do most Americans either.

Offline Rik ISS-fan

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #21 on: 09/14/2018 02:41 pm »
Maybe ESA/ Europe can spend it's money on Station modules aka a destination for the crew to go to. Nasa is spending tens of billions on the development of SLS and Orion but doesn't have funding left to develop moon landers; moon modules; moon orbital stations or even a replacement of the ISS.
I fear it's far more likely that the permanent human presence in space ends than that one other human being will set a foot on the moon.

I think doing unmanned science in a LEO spacestation/reconfigurable pressurized satellite is the fourth most important activity that can be done in space. Humans involvement in this creates oportunities to do more, but at huge cost. Space exploration should be done with robots!!!  Far to dangerous and expansive to do it with humans.
I also see far less use in a moon station(moon village) than in a LEO station. That's my opinion (yes, I'm not very optimistic)

Offline TripleSeven

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #22 on: 09/14/2018 02:57 pm »
Maybe ESA/ Europe can spend it's money on Station modules aka a destination for the crew to go to. Nasa is spending tens of billions on the development of SLS and Orion but doesn't have funding left to develop moon landers; moon modules; moon orbital stations or even a replacement of the ISS.
I fear it's far more likely that the permanent human presence in space ends than that one other human being will set a foot on the moon.

I think doing unmanned science in a LEO spacestation/reconfigurable pressurized satellite is the fourth most important activity that can be done in space. Humans involvement in this creates oportunities to do more, but at huge cost. Space exploration should be done with robots!!!  Far to dangerous and expansive to do it with humans.
I also see far less use in a moon station(moon village) than in a LEO station. That's my opinion (yes, I'm not very optimistic)

unless things change I agree human spaceflight in the west is dying...the GOOD NEWS at least in my world...is that I think change is coming :)

Online Coastal Ron

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #23 on: 09/14/2018 03:43 pm »
unless things change I agree human spaceflight in the west is dying...

SpaceX just announced they have a paying customer for a trip around our Moon, and the next three crew-capable spacecraft to come online will be doing so from the "west".

So your statement is, to say the least, curious.

As to Europe, they have a far less cohesive ability to plan long-term goals for space than the U.S., so until there is a clear need for a crew-capable spacecraft I don't think it makes sense for one or more European countries to build and operate their own spacecraft. And for those occasions where they do want to send humans to space, they will know that far less costly options exist with U.S. based service providers - and let's hope when that time comes that we'll be back to normal relations with our friends in Europe...  ::)

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the GOOD NEWS at least in my world...is that I think change is coming :)

Change is a constant, so your statement is meaningless. It's like saying "I think the sun will rise tomorrow!  :)"

As for being coy, NSF is filled with people that know more than they let on in the public forums, and if you have something non-public to share then that is what L2 is for. Otherwise saying you know something you can't reveal is just bad form here on NSF.

My $0.02
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline Chasm

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #24 on: 09/14/2018 05:17 pm »
Today human spaceflight in Europe reminds me a bit of the "How to eat an Elephant" story. Just that you don't officially tell the politicians what they are eating paying for...


As said before most building blocks are there.
ATV to fly, dock and rendezvous. The ESM adds life support. (Best thing about is that Europe keeps the IP.) Space Rider and the demonstrators before it for launch and reentry.

I think the next thing is making Space Rider reality. There is no sense in launching humans if you can't get them back reliably.
I'd like to see a Space Rider XL that integrates the AVUM+ and gets rid of the fairing. Take reuse up a notch. Switch to green propellants for safer ground handling. Say no to orbital modules. :)

Online ncb1397

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #25 on: 09/14/2018 05:21 pm »

Besides the ATV derived European Service module is far to heavy.

It isn't too heavy, It can act as a rocket's third stage, with a lighter capsule, it can probably easily do 2km/s+ or nearly a quarter of LEO dV. Even Zefiro 9 on a small launcher like Vega masses ~12,000 kg. It would be little different than Shuttle where the OMS did the final orbital insertion while the "rocket" portion all staged suborbital.

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it makes no real sense for them to spend a lot of Euros on a vehicle...when they could go to Boeing or SpaceX (and within 5 years BO) and plop down not a lot of cash and put people on the bird.  the countries there are not ego driven like say the US or Chinese or Indians are.

Then why are they building Ariane 6? Just plop money down at SpaceX/BO/ILS/ISRO.
« Last Edit: 09/14/2018 05:33 pm by ncb1397 »

Offline hkultala

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #26 on: 09/14/2018 05:29 pm »
If the ISS gets extended to 2030, Europe could take the work done so far on Orion Service Module, integrate it with a capsule/spaceplane and use this system for both crew and cargo deliveries on Ariane 6.

Shouldn't it be way oversized and overexpensive for LEO/ISS "taxi" use?

Offline TripleSeven

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #27 on: 09/14/2018 05:33 pm »


Change is a constant, so your statement is meaningless. It's like saying "I think the sun will rise tomorrow!  :)"



I dont agree change is constant.  the US space program has seen very little change since Apollo.  it is essentially one program after another (some failing) thatare designed to keep the space industrial complex alive...but do very little in human space flight.  "IF" doing a "lot" is defined in anyway shape or form as any other industry in the US has "changed"

it would be as ifARPANET  started and today that is still all we have.

for what it is worth the sun coming up in the morning is not change...it is constant.

Change only occurs in people, institutions and governments when they are pertubated to do so by events.

I see that coming in human spaceflight...its not going to happen over night,, but it is coming in my view.  all events are pointing to a "cycle" shift in the US.

Offline hkultala

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #28 on: 09/14/2018 05:39 pm »

Besides the ATV derived European Service module is far to heavy.

It isn't too heavy, It can act as a rocket's third stage, with a lighter capsule, it can probably easily do 2km/s+ or nearly a quarter of LEO dV. Even Zefiro 9 on the a small launcher like Vega masses ~12,000 kg. It would be little different than Shuttle where the OMS did the final orbital insertion.

The T/W is way too bad , it practically only works after reaching orbit. Could be used for going from LEO to GTO, but not for reaching LEO.

ATV has 1960 kilonewtons of thrust. This means about 200 kilograms at earth gravity. With mass of 20 tonnes this becomes T/W of  1/100.



« Last Edit: 09/14/2018 05:39 pm by hkultala »

Online ncb1397

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #29 on: 09/14/2018 05:59 pm »

Besides the ATV derived European Service module is far to heavy.

It isn't too heavy, It can act as a rocket's third stage, with a lighter capsule, it can probably easily do 2km/s+ or nearly a quarter of LEO dV. Even Zefiro 9 on the a small launcher like Vega masses ~12,000 kg. It would be little different than Shuttle where the OMS did the final orbital insertion.

The T/W is way too bad , it practically only works after reaching orbit. Could be used for going from LEO to GTO, but not for reaching LEO.

ATV has 1960 kilonewtons of thrust. This means about 200 kilograms at earth gravity. With mass of 20 tonnes this becomes T/W of  1/100.

Depends what the suborbital trajectory is. The OMS can provide 1.3 m/s^2 on a 20,000 kg spacecraft stack or ~400 m/s in 5 minutes. But it wouldn't use an OMS as that is a U.S. engine with supply constaints. It probably would be Aestus at 30 kN or Aestus II at 55.4 kN. Regardless, Ariane 64 can put ~20,000 kg into LEO which would be the backup option. Even going from the optimal LEO from a rocket standpoint to ISS can be expensive. For instance, Shuttle had a 27.5 t payload to LEO, but only 16 t to ISS.

edit: You don't have to take my word for it. See image below.
« Last Edit: 09/14/2018 06:50 pm by ncb1397 »

Offline gdelottle

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #30 on: 09/14/2018 06:24 pm »
Interesting...

My humble but honest opinion, as a deep supporter of a unified Europe is:

(1) This is highly unlikely to happen. Europe is in a deep identity crisis, has many urgent issues to sort out and I see very hard to build a critical mass around such an (expensive) idea.

(2) Said that, I would really welcome such an effort. Europe must become independent as much as possible in any field. We cannot depend anymore on others for basic issues like defense, space, the internet, etc. Recent developments show that while equal collaboration is still possible with other superpowers, be forced to depend on others is a risk, that may become very high as the international situation is very unstable, unpredictable and deteriorating.



« Last Edit: 09/14/2018 06:27 pm by gdelottle »

Offline RedLineTrain

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #31 on: 09/14/2018 07:10 pm »
Arianspaces's CEO is probably just trying to drum up some business.

While true, I view this as more urgent for Arianespace.  The intended market for the Ariane 64 is in perhaps terminal decline.  Europe might as well do manned spaceflight because it will be paying for the manufacturing capacity in any event one way or another.
« Last Edit: 09/14/2018 07:11 pm by RedLineTrain »

Offline woods170

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #32 on: 09/14/2018 08:21 pm »

Then why are they building Ariane 6?

Because most European critical payloads donít carry humans. You want independent access for those. Human missions are not critical and therefore donít require independent access to space.

Offline TrevorMonty

Using Dreamchaser on Ariane 6 is quickiest way to give them a domestic manned system. Would need man rate Ariane6, don't know how feasible that is.

SNC knows what is required for crew Dreamchaser just ESA backing to justify R&D costs.


Offline TripleSeven

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #34 on: 09/14/2018 09:00 pm »
Interesting...

My humble but honest opinion, as a deep supporter of a unified Europe is:

(1) This is highly unlikely to happen. Europe is in a deep identity crisis, has many urgent issues to sort out and I see very hard to build a critical mass around such an (expensive) idea.

(2) Said that, I would really welcome such an effort. Europe must become independent as much as possible in any field. We cannot depend anymore on others for basic issues like defense, space, the internet, etc. Recent developments show that while equal collaboration is still possible with other superpowers, be forced to depend on others is a risk, that may become very high as the international situation is very unstable, unpredictable and deteriorating.

there is a reason Europe is supporting an independent sat based nav facility and not a human spaceflight program

they see the pay off in the former but not so much in the latter Galileo and GPS make "us" both stronger together and independently 

Online Coastal Ron

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #35 on: 09/14/2018 11:28 pm »
the GOOD NEWS at least in my world...is that I think change is coming :)
Change is a constant, so your statement is meaningless. It's like saying "I think the sun will rise tomorrow!  :)"

I dont agree change is constant.  the US space program has seen very little change since Apollo.

Odd comment. After Apollo we operated the Space Shuttle for 30 years, and the International Space Station has been occupied for almost 18 years. Just those two efforts have been major differences from Apollo.

Even Arianespace has changed over the decades, and now not only wants a new launcher (i.e. Ariane 6) but a crew-capable spacecraft. Change is constant.

Quote
for what it is worth the sun coming up in the morning is not change...it is constant.

You missed the forest for the trees again...   ;)

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I see that coming in human spaceflight...its not going to happen over night,, but it is coming in my view.  all events are pointing to a "cycle" shift in the US.

What the U.S. is doing is immaterial to this topic. Do you have anything to say about THIS topic?

For me, I don't think Arianespace can get the funding for a full-up crew-capable spacecraft program, and though Europeans are very resourceful people in general, I'm not sure they have the knowledge and leadership needed for a cost-efficient development program.

It would be understandable if Europe wants to develop their own indigenous design, but I would hope they would consider licensing an existing one - like Dream Chaser...  :D
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline ChrisWilson68

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #36 on: 09/15/2018 01:29 am »
And in other news, the Pope urges the people of the world to all convert to Catholicism.

Offline Steven Pietrobon

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #37 on: 09/15/2018 03:01 am »
I wonder if this announcement has anything to do India's announcement of their crewed space program. In any case, ESA should have had a capsule a long time ago. The service module from Orion should be fine to use. Just shorten it, so that it carries less propellant for Earth orbit use and add a 4 m diameter capsule. Abort can be done SpaceX style. Time to dust off those old studies.

http://www.astronautix.com/m/multi-rolercoverycapsule.html
http://www.astronautix.com/e/esaacrv.html
http://www.astronautix.com/c/ctv.html
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline woods170

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #38 on: 09/15/2018 06:25 pm »
I wonder if this announcement has anything to do India's announcement of their crewed space program. In any case, ESA should have had a capsule a long time ago. The service module from Orion should be fine to use. Just shorten it, so that it carries less propellant for Earth orbit use and add a 4 m diameter capsule. Abort can be done SpaceX style. Time to dust off those old studies.

http://www.astronautix.com/m/multi-rolercoverycapsule.html
http://www.astronautix.com/e/esaacrv.html
http://www.astronautix.com/c/ctv.html

Yeah, it is probably triggered by India.

But... (and this is something that Stephane probably fails to understand)

India is, like Russia, the USA and China, not viewed as "competition", by ESA and the EU, with regards to manned spaceflight.

Manned spaceflight is not a strategic thing. Having your own independent access to space for strategic (and thus unmanned) assets IS however. Hence why Europe has Ariane, has its own weather sats, has its own Earth observation program, has its own data relay sats, has its own spysats, has its own maritime support sats, has its own GPS equivalent, etc. etc.

Online ncb1397

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #39 on: 09/15/2018 06:36 pm »

Manned spaceflight is not a strategic thing. Having your own independent access to space for strategic (and thus unmanned) assets IS however. Hence why Europe has Ariane, has its own weather sats, has its own Earth observation program, has its own data relay sats, has its own spysats, has its own maritime support sats, has its own GPS equivalent, etc. etc.

You are selectively picking what you list to prove your point. What strategic value does having your own Mars orbiter, Jupiter satellite, Mars rover or space telescope have? Europe doesn't have a indigenous manned spaceflight capability because they don't, just like the U.S. now, China in the 1990s, India in the 2010s, etc. It has no bearing on future developments. And the $3 billion dollars spent on Hermes suggest that they can and will spend lots of money on things that, as you point out, don't have a strategic imperative.
« Last Edit: 09/15/2018 06:38 pm by ncb1397 »

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