Author Topic: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights  (Read 4249 times)

Offline Eric Hedman

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Offline TripleSeven

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #1 on: 09/13/2018 03:38 PM »
Arianespace CEO Stephane Israel said, “Manned flight is close to my heart; with their know-how, Europeans could do it,”

Article in Aviation Week: http://aviationweek.com/world-satellite-business-week/arianespace-ceo-urges-europe-mull-manned-spaceflights?NL=AW-05&Issue=AW-05_20180913_AW-05_422&sfvc4enews=42&cl=article_2&utm_rid=CPEN1000002507287&utm_campaign=16439&utm_medium=email&elq2=c5034f8b89bd40b4aac61a130ca2fbed

the only thing that is stopping them is the "why" of it...why would they develop their own up down capability

Offline Rik ISS-fan

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #2 on: 09/13/2018 05:38 PM »
My view is that ESA / European space industry first have to get their current programs successfully completed. Thus a the launchers transition from Vega and Ariane 5 to Ariane 6 and Vega C/E. Besides also Spacerider have to be successfully developed. Only after this is done they could try to consider developing a manned launch capability.
 

Offline Kansan52

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #3 on: 09/13/2018 05:54 PM »
My answer is 'why not?'. They wanted an independent launch capability and built it. The potential of humans working and researching in LEO besides or in place of the ISS may be the reason. Starting the preliminary work now for a decade from now seems reasonable (IMHO).

Offline hektor

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #4 on: 09/13/2018 06:00 PM »
Would have been a good idea in the 90s.

Now it is far too late.
« Last Edit: 09/13/2018 06:00 PM by hektor »

Offline gosnold

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #5 on: 09/13/2018 07:05 PM »
That's kind of strange for a business perspective: manned payloads are very expensive, so launches are few and far between, so Arianespace will only capture a small fraction of the ESA budget.
Cheap cargo vehicles (to refuel LOP-G or however you want to justify it) would be more launch-intensive and allow to capture a larger share of the ESA budget.

Online ncb1397

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #6 on: 09/13/2018 07:22 PM »
I wonder if Space Rider could be used to launch a single ESA astronaut to the ISS/LEO (they usually only have one on board anyways). The payload for it is listed as 800 kg while the mass of the mercury capsule was 1104 kg[1] with the heat shield massing 272 kg[1]. Of course, you would need to add an abort system (perhaps an integrated abort system?).

[1]http://www.astronautix.com/m/mercurycapsule.html

I believe the whole object is encapsulated currently, but looking at renderings, it doesn't seem completely incompatable with encapsulating just the service module providing for an abort path.

Online rcoppola

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #7 on: 09/13/2018 07:25 PM »
Europe is well suited to embark upon a robust human exploration of the cosmos. It's a travesty that European countries with rich heritages in exploration and the pursuit of knowledge are sitting this out.
Sail the oceans of space and set foot upon new lands!
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Online ncb1397

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #8 on: 09/13/2018 07:29 PM »
That's kind of strange for a business perspective: manned payloads are very expensive, so launches are few and far between, so Arianespace will only capture a small fraction of the ESA budget.
Cheap cargo vehicles (to refuel LOP-G or however you want to justify it) would be more launch-intensive and allow to capture a larger share of the ESA budget.

Considering that they currently get ~0% of the ESA budget that goes to manned flight to LEO and back (aren't involved with Orion service module/Commercial Crew), it makes perfect sense from a business perspective.

Offline SciNews

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #9 on: 09/13/2018 08:00 PM »
Earlier this year
Quote
Will Ariane 6 be man-rated?
A: Human exploration will be done in cooperation with other countries, and the USA are developing a launcher for human exploration, so no Ariane will not be man-rated. However nowadays manrating would not be done by increasing the margins in the design, but by using a proven commercial launcher with a good track record.
https://satelliteobservation.net/2018/05/21/ariane-6-and-beyond/

Offline RonM

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #10 on: 09/13/2018 10:56 PM »
Unless there is a need for home grown capability, buying rides on Starliner or Dragon 2 would make more sense.

Arianspaces's CEO is probably just trying to drum up some business.

Offline Chasm

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #11 on: 09/14/2018 12:21 AM »
Since Ariane 6 turned out to be a stop gap rocket time to fill the wish list for the next one. ;D

I think Rik got it right.
Get the current rocket projects done. Make Space Rider a thing that actually works. Introduce reuse with Ariane Next... And only then perhaps do the actual human spaceflight stuff.

Offline JMSC

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #12 on: 09/14/2018 04:28 AM »
Launching 1-2 manned flights a year on the A62/64 would be keeping with Arianespace's keep the money for launching EU payloads in the EU strategy (or spend the money Arianespace rockets).  ESA is already developing the European service module for Orion and it shouldn't be too expensive to integrate the module with A6.  Now all they really need is to develop a suitable manned capsule and make the necessary mods to the A6 infrastructure and they could have a manned capability for a lot cheaper than the 1980s Hermes space plane.  An ESA version of Lockheed's proposed Orion Lite or Boeing's CST-100 would probably fit the bill for not too big of an investment. 

This way Arianespace can fill out the necessary 11-12 A6 launches a year they need to keep the program going in what looks to be a very competitive launch market in the 2020s and at a price that the EU might actually agree to pay.  So if they can sell the necessary governments on the project go for it.  If Boeing is spending $4.2 billion to develop the CST-100, $7 billion or so spread out over a decade (very rough guess) would probably come close to funding the entire program for a A6/CST-100 derivative system.
« Last Edit: 09/14/2018 04:29 AM by JMSC »

Offline Darkseraph

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #13 on: 09/14/2018 05:00 AM »
If the ISS gets extended to 2030, Europe could take the work done so far on Orion Service Module, integrate it with a capsule/spaceplane and use this system for both crew and cargo deliveries on Ariane 6. Work on ATV has already given Europe autonomous docking capabilities. A scheme like this would push up the launch rate of Ariane 6, pay for European use of the ISS and reduce dependency on Russia. Such a system could even potentially visit the future Chinese Space Station.

On a minor note, it's kind of embarrassing Europe lacks an indigenous human spaceflight capability. It's not a money problem, collectively European states have a GDP equivalent to the United States and far greater than China, Russia or India. It's not a technical problem either, the know-how exists in Europe to achieve this and even greater things. If it really wanted, Europe could have a lunar base with a completely reusable architecture based on refueling upper stages of Ariane-6 sized vehicles and ISRU. What seems to be lacking is the will. Part of this might be due to its terrible legacy with colonialism, which is understandable: European empires committed massive crimes against humanity all around the world and anything that sounds expansionist or colonial has a bad reputation on the continent. Whatever the block is, I hope it is overcome and the peaceful exploration and settlement of space becomes a driving force in Europe in the near future. Who knows, perhaps even Space Solar Power would offer Europe in the future a way to ween itself off Russian gas :/
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." R.P.Feynman

Offline woods170

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #14 on: 09/14/2018 06:23 AM »
Arianespace CEO Stephane Israel said, “Manned flight is close to my heart; with their know-how, Europeans could do it,”

Article in Aviation Week: http://aviationweek.com/world-satellite-business-week/arianespace-ceo-urges-europe-mull-manned-spaceflights?NL=AW-05&Issue=AW-05_20180913_AW-05_422&sfvc4enews=42&cl=article_2&utm_rid=CPEN1000002507287&utm_campaign=16439&utm_medium=email&elq2=c5034f8b89bd40b4aac61a130ca2fbed

the only thing that is stopping them is the "why" of it...why would they develop their own up down capability

No. The "why" is not stopping them. The boatload of required Euros is stopping them. Remember, ESA is living on a shoestring budget compared to NASA's budget.
Also, ESA has not gotten over the Hermes-debacle yet.

Offline woods170

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #15 on: 09/14/2018 06:24 AM »
Would have been a good idea in the 90s.

Now it is far too late.

ESA actually tried in the 1990's (and again in the early 2000's). Both times they failed. Both times for the same reason: lack of political will and lack of money.

Offline woods170

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #16 on: 09/14/2018 06:28 AM »
My answer is 'why not?'. They wanted an independent launch capability and built it. The potential of humans working and researching in LEO besides or in place of the ISS may be the reason. Starting the preliminary work now for a decade from now seems reasonable (IMHO).

Why develop your own capability when you can get it from the Russians for cheap?
Why develop your own capability when you have flight opportunities aboard Orion in exchange for building the ESM?
Why develop your own capability when you are working on flying together with the Chinese as well?
Why develop your own capability when you can just rent it from SpaceX just a few years from now?
Why develop your own capability when you can just rent if from Blue Origin in a decade from now?

Offline Rik ISS-fan

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #17 on: 09/14/2018 01:40 PM »
Woods you've forgotten Boeing with the Starliner (CST-100).

For manrating Ariane 6 I guess the solids will be a problem.
Besides the ATV derived European Service module is far to heavy.
And there is no launch escape system. There aren't suitable launch escape engines.
So there isn't an easy path towards a human launch capability.
But Europe a has tested their capsule reentry technology and IXV reentry system. But a third reentry technology demonstration vehicle has been shalved into a cleanroom, because it couldn't be launched (EXPERT).
And indeed ESA / Europe is far from over the Hermes debacle. (AFAIK Dreamchaser is a bit based on it.)

Offline RonM

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #18 on: 09/14/2018 02:19 PM »
Possible options for crewed flight a decade from now: Russia (Soyuz or Federation), China (Shenzhou), India (Gaganyaan), NASA (Orion), Boeing (Starliner), SpaceX (Dragon 2 or BFS), Blue Origin (?), and Sierra Nevada (Dream Chaser).

Some of these systems might be cancelled or never leave the PowerPoint stage, but some of them will be available. With so many options, I think Europe should save its money and buy seats instead of building their own spacecraft.

Offline TripleSeven

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #19 on: 09/14/2018 02:25 PM »
Arianespace CEO Stephane Israel said, “Manned flight is close to my heart; with their know-how, Europeans could do it,”

Article in Aviation Week: http://aviationweek.com/world-satellite-business-week/arianespace-ceo-urges-europe-mull-manned-spaceflights?NL=AW-05&Issue=AW-05_20180913_AW-05_422&sfvc4enews=42&cl=article_2&utm_rid=CPEN1000002507287&utm_campaign=16439&utm_medium=email&elq2=c5034f8b89bd40b4aac61a130ca2fbed

the only thing that is stopping them is the "why" of it...why would they develop their own up down capability

No. The "why" is not stopping them. The boatload of required Euros is stopping them. Remember, ESA is living on a shoestring budget compared to NASA's budget.
Also, ESA has not gotten over the Hermes-debacle yet.

the "why" is "why" to spend the Euros ...the Europeans are not like the US...they dont stay wrapped up in things that didnt "work right" for long...they tend to move on.

it makes no real sense for them to spend a lot of Euros on a vehicle...when they could go to Boeing or SpaceX (and within 5 years BO) and plop down not a lot of cash and put people on the bird.  the countries there are not ego driven like say the US or Chinese or Indians are.

Offline TripleSeven

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #20 on: 09/14/2018 02:29 PM »
If the ISS gets extended to 2030, Europe could take the work done so far on Orion Service Module, integrate it with a capsule/spaceplane and use this system for both crew and cargo deliveries on Ariane 6. Work on ATV has already given Europe autonomous docking capabilities. A scheme like this would push up the launch rate of Ariane 6, pay for European use of the ISS and reduce dependency on Russia. Such a system could even potentially visit the future Chinese Space Station.

On a minor note, it's kind of embarrassing Europe lacks an indigenous human spaceflight capability. It's not a money problem, collectively European states have a GDP equivalent to the United States and far greater than China, Russia or India. It's not a technical problem either, the know-how exists in Europe to achieve this and even greater things. If it really wanted, Europe could have a lunar base with a completely reusable architecture based on refueling upper stages of Ariane-6 sized vehicles and ISRU. What seems to be lacking is the will. Part of this might be due to its terrible legacy with colonialism, which is understandable: European empires committed massive crimes against humanity all around the world and anything that sounds expansionist or colonial has a bad reputation on the continent. Whatever the block is, I hope it is overcome and the peaceful exploration and settlement of space becomes a driving force in Europe in the near future. Who knows, perhaps even Space Solar Power would offer Europe in the future a way to ween itself off Russian gas :/

I dont agree with that last paragraph.  the Europeans are doing nothing that the US is nt doing...we dont have the will to go to the Moon or have a robust exploration program either...we simply spend the money to keep the people in business on the earth who tinker at human spaceflight...if we had the will to have an exploration program we would cancel SLS and Orion and well "GO"


the Europeans just dont see any real thing in human space exploration...reallyneither do most Americans either.

Offline Rik ISS-fan

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #21 on: 09/14/2018 02:41 PM »
Maybe ESA/ Europe can spend it's money on Station modules aka a destination for the crew to go to. Nasa is spending tens of billions on the development of SLS and Orion but doesn't have funding left to develop moon landers; moon modules; moon orbital stations or even a replacement of the ISS.
I fear it's far more likely that the permanent human presence in space ends than that one other human being will set a foot on the moon.

I think doing unmanned science in a LEO spacestation/reconfigurable pressurized satellite is the fourth most important activity that can be done in space. Humans involvement in this creates oportunities to do more, but at huge cost. Space exploration should be done with robots!!!  Far to dangerous and expansive to do it with humans.
I also see far less use in a moon station(moon village) than in a LEO station. That's my opinion (yes, I'm not very optimistic)

Offline TripleSeven

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #22 on: 09/14/2018 02:57 PM »
Maybe ESA/ Europe can spend it's money on Station modules aka a destination for the crew to go to. Nasa is spending tens of billions on the development of SLS and Orion but doesn't have funding left to develop moon landers; moon modules; moon orbital stations or even a replacement of the ISS.
I fear it's far more likely that the permanent human presence in space ends than that one other human being will set a foot on the moon.

I think doing unmanned science in a LEO spacestation/reconfigurable pressurized satellite is the fourth most important activity that can be done in space. Humans involvement in this creates oportunities to do more, but at huge cost. Space exploration should be done with robots!!!  Far to dangerous and expansive to do it with humans.
I also see far less use in a moon station(moon village) than in a LEO station. That's my opinion (yes, I'm not very optimistic)

unless things change I agree human spaceflight in the west is dying...the GOOD NEWS at least in my world...is that I think change is coming :)

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #23 on: 09/14/2018 03:43 PM »
unless things change I agree human spaceflight in the west is dying...

SpaceX just announced they have a paying customer for a trip around our Moon, and the next three crew-capable spacecraft to come online will be doing so from the "west".

So your statement is, to say the least, curious.

As to Europe, they have a far less cohesive ability to plan long-term goals for space than the U.S., so until there is a clear need for a crew-capable spacecraft I don't think it makes sense for one or more European countries to build and operate their own spacecraft. And for those occasions where they do want to send humans to space, they will know that far less costly options exist with U.S. based service providers - and let's hope when that time comes that we'll be back to normal relations with our friends in Europe...  ::)

Quote
the GOOD NEWS at least in my world...is that I think change is coming :)

Change is a constant, so your statement is meaningless. It's like saying "I think the sun will rise tomorrow!  :)"

As for being coy, NSF is filled with people that know more than they let on in the public forums, and if you have something non-public to share then that is what L2 is for. Otherwise saying you know something you can't reveal is just bad form here on NSF.

My $0.02
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline Chasm

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #24 on: 09/14/2018 05:17 PM »
Today human spaceflight in Europe reminds me a bit of the "How to eat an Elephant" story. Just that you don't officially tell the politicians what they are eating paying for...


As said before most building blocks are there.
ATV to fly, dock and rendezvous. The ESM adds life support. (Best thing about is that Europe keeps the IP.) Space Rider and the demonstrators before it for launch and reentry.

I think the next thing is making Space Rider reality. There is no sense in launching humans if you can't get them back reliably.
I'd like to see a Space Rider XL that integrates the AVUM+ and gets rid of the fairing. Take reuse up a notch. Switch to green propellants for safer ground handling. Say no to orbital modules. :)

Online ncb1397

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #25 on: 09/14/2018 05:21 PM »

Besides the ATV derived European Service module is far to heavy.

It isn't too heavy, It can act as a rocket's third stage, with a lighter capsule, it can probably easily do 2km/s+ or nearly a quarter of LEO dV. Even Zefiro 9 on a small launcher like Vega masses ~12,000 kg. It would be little different than Shuttle where the OMS did the final orbital insertion while the "rocket" portion all staged suborbital.

Quote
it makes no real sense for them to spend a lot of Euros on a vehicle...when they could go to Boeing or SpaceX (and within 5 years BO) and plop down not a lot of cash and put people on the bird.  the countries there are not ego driven like say the US or Chinese or Indians are.

Then why are they building Ariane 6? Just plop money down at SpaceX/BO/ILS/ISRO.
« Last Edit: 09/14/2018 05:33 PM by ncb1397 »

Offline hkultala

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #26 on: 09/14/2018 05:29 PM »
If the ISS gets extended to 2030, Europe could take the work done so far on Orion Service Module, integrate it with a capsule/spaceplane and use this system for both crew and cargo deliveries on Ariane 6.

Shouldn't it be way oversized and overexpensive for LEO/ISS "taxi" use?

Offline TripleSeven

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #27 on: 09/14/2018 05:33 PM »


Change is a constant, so your statement is meaningless. It's like saying "I think the sun will rise tomorrow!  :)"



I dont agree change is constant.  the US space program has seen very little change since Apollo.  it is essentially one program after another (some failing) thatare designed to keep the space industrial complex alive...but do very little in human space flight.  "IF" doing a "lot" is defined in anyway shape or form as any other industry in the US has "changed"

it would be as ifARPANET  started and today that is still all we have.

for what it is worth the sun coming up in the morning is not change...it is constant.

Change only occurs in people, institutions and governments when they are pertubated to do so by events.

I see that coming in human spaceflight...its not going to happen over night,, but it is coming in my view.  all events are pointing to a "cycle" shift in the US.

Offline hkultala

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #28 on: 09/14/2018 05:39 PM »

Besides the ATV derived European Service module is far to heavy.

It isn't too heavy, It can act as a rocket's third stage, with a lighter capsule, it can probably easily do 2km/s+ or nearly a quarter of LEO dV. Even Zefiro 9 on the a small launcher like Vega masses ~12,000 kg. It would be little different than Shuttle where the OMS did the final orbital insertion.

The T/W is way too bad , it practically only works after reaching orbit. Could be used for going from LEO to GTO, but not for reaching LEO.

ATV has 1960 kilonewtons of thrust. This means about 200 kilograms at earth gravity. With mass of 20 tonnes this becomes T/W of  1/100.



« Last Edit: 09/14/2018 05:39 PM by hkultala »

Online ncb1397

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #29 on: 09/14/2018 05:59 PM »

Besides the ATV derived European Service module is far to heavy.

It isn't too heavy, It can act as a rocket's third stage, with a lighter capsule, it can probably easily do 2km/s+ or nearly a quarter of LEO dV. Even Zefiro 9 on the a small launcher like Vega masses ~12,000 kg. It would be little different than Shuttle where the OMS did the final orbital insertion.

The T/W is way too bad , it practically only works after reaching orbit. Could be used for going from LEO to GTO, but not for reaching LEO.

ATV has 1960 kilonewtons of thrust. This means about 200 kilograms at earth gravity. With mass of 20 tonnes this becomes T/W of  1/100.

Depends what the suborbital trajectory is. The OMS can provide 1.3 m/s^2 on a 20,000 kg spacecraft stack or ~400 m/s in 5 minutes. But it wouldn't use an OMS as that is a U.S. engine with supply constaints. It probably would be Aestus at 30 kN or Aestus II at 55.4 kN. Regardless, Ariane 64 can put ~20,000 kg into LEO which would be the backup option. Even going from the optimal LEO from a rocket standpoint to ISS can be expensive. For instance, Shuttle had a 27.5 t payload to LEO, but only 16 t to ISS.

edit: You don't have to take my word for it. See image below.
« Last Edit: 09/14/2018 06:50 PM by ncb1397 »

Offline gdelottle

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #30 on: 09/14/2018 06:24 PM »
Interesting...

My humble but honest opinion, as a deep supporter of a unified Europe is:

(1) This is highly unlikely to happen. Europe is in a deep identity crisis, has many urgent issues to sort out and I see very hard to build a critical mass around such an (expensive) idea.

(2) Said that, I would really welcome such an effort. Europe must become independent as much as possible in any field. We cannot depend anymore on others for basic issues like defense, space, the internet, etc. Recent developments show that while equal collaboration is still possible with other superpowers, be forced to depend on others is a risk, that may become very high as the international situation is very unstable, unpredictable and deteriorating.



« Last Edit: 09/14/2018 06:27 PM by gdelottle »

Offline RedLineTrain

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #31 on: 09/14/2018 07:10 PM »
Arianspaces's CEO is probably just trying to drum up some business.

While true, I view this as more urgent for Arianespace.  The intended market for the Ariane 64 is in perhaps terminal decline.  Europe might as well do manned spaceflight because it will be paying for the manufacturing capacity in any event one way or another.
« Last Edit: 09/14/2018 07:11 PM by RedLineTrain »

Offline woods170

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #32 on: 09/14/2018 08:21 PM »

Then why are they building Ariane 6?

Because most European critical payloads don’t carry humans. You want independent access for those. Human missions are not critical and therefore don’t require independent access to space.

Offline TrevorMonty

Using Dreamchaser on Ariane 6 is quickiest way to give them a domestic manned system. Would need man rate Ariane6, don't know how feasible that is.

SNC knows what is required for crew Dreamchaser just ESA backing to justify R&D costs.


Offline TripleSeven

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #34 on: 09/14/2018 09:00 PM »
Interesting...

My humble but honest opinion, as a deep supporter of a unified Europe is:

(1) This is highly unlikely to happen. Europe is in a deep identity crisis, has many urgent issues to sort out and I see very hard to build a critical mass around such an (expensive) idea.

(2) Said that, I would really welcome such an effort. Europe must become independent as much as possible in any field. We cannot depend anymore on others for basic issues like defense, space, the internet, etc. Recent developments show that while equal collaboration is still possible with other superpowers, be forced to depend on others is a risk, that may become very high as the international situation is very unstable, unpredictable and deteriorating.

there is a reason Europe is supporting an independent sat based nav facility and not a human spaceflight program

they see the pay off in the former but not so much in the latter Galileo and GPS make "us" both stronger together and independently 

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #35 on: 09/14/2018 11:28 PM »
the GOOD NEWS at least in my world...is that I think change is coming :)
Change is a constant, so your statement is meaningless. It's like saying "I think the sun will rise tomorrow!  :)"

I dont agree change is constant.  the US space program has seen very little change since Apollo.

Odd comment. After Apollo we operated the Space Shuttle for 30 years, and the International Space Station has been occupied for almost 18 years. Just those two efforts have been major differences from Apollo.

Even Arianespace has changed over the decades, and now not only wants a new launcher (i.e. Ariane 6) but a crew-capable spacecraft. Change is constant.

Quote
for what it is worth the sun coming up in the morning is not change...it is constant.

You missed the forest for the trees again...   ;)

Quote
I see that coming in human spaceflight...its not going to happen over night,, but it is coming in my view.  all events are pointing to a "cycle" shift in the US.

What the U.S. is doing is immaterial to this topic. Do you have anything to say about THIS topic?

For me, I don't think Arianespace can get the funding for a full-up crew-capable spacecraft program, and though Europeans are very resourceful people in general, I'm not sure they have the knowledge and leadership needed for a cost-efficient development program.

It would be understandable if Europe wants to develop their own indigenous design, but I would hope they would consider licensing an existing one - like Dream Chaser...  :D
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline ChrisWilson68

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #36 on: 09/15/2018 01:29 AM »
And in other news, the Pope urges the people of the world to all convert to Catholicism.

Offline Steven Pietrobon

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #37 on: 09/15/2018 03:01 AM »
I wonder if this announcement has anything to do India's announcement of their crewed space program. In any case, ESA should have had a capsule a long time ago. The service module from Orion should be fine to use. Just shorten it, so that it carries less propellant for Earth orbit use and add a 4 m diameter capsule. Abort can be done SpaceX style. Time to dust off those old studies.

http://www.astronautix.com/m/multi-rolercoverycapsule.html
http://www.astronautix.com/e/esaacrv.html
http://www.astronautix.com/c/ctv.html
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline woods170

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #38 on: 09/15/2018 06:25 PM »
I wonder if this announcement has anything to do India's announcement of their crewed space program. In any case, ESA should have had a capsule a long time ago. The service module from Orion should be fine to use. Just shorten it, so that it carries less propellant for Earth orbit use and add a 4 m diameter capsule. Abort can be done SpaceX style. Time to dust off those old studies.

http://www.astronautix.com/m/multi-rolercoverycapsule.html
http://www.astronautix.com/e/esaacrv.html
http://www.astronautix.com/c/ctv.html

Yeah, it is probably triggered by India.

But... (and this is something that Stephane probably fails to understand)

India is, like Russia, the USA and China, not viewed as "competition", by ESA and the EU, with regards to manned spaceflight.

Manned spaceflight is not a strategic thing. Having your own independent access to space for strategic (and thus unmanned) assets IS however. Hence why Europe has Ariane, has its own weather sats, has its own Earth observation program, has its own data relay sats, has its own spysats, has its own maritime support sats, has its own GPS equivalent, etc. etc.

Online ncb1397

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #39 on: 09/15/2018 06:36 PM »

Manned spaceflight is not a strategic thing. Having your own independent access to space for strategic (and thus unmanned) assets IS however. Hence why Europe has Ariane, has its own weather sats, has its own Earth observation program, has its own data relay sats, has its own spysats, has its own maritime support sats, has its own GPS equivalent, etc. etc.

You are selectively picking what you list to prove your point. What strategic value does having your own Mars orbiter, Jupiter satellite, Mars rover or space telescope have? Europe doesn't have a indigenous manned spaceflight capability because they don't, just like the U.S. now, China in the 1990s, India in the 2010s, etc. It has no bearing on future developments. And the $3 billion dollars spent on Hermes suggest that they can and will spend lots of money on things that, as you point out, don't have a strategic imperative.
« Last Edit: 09/15/2018 06:38 PM by ncb1397 »

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #40 on: 09/15/2018 07:34 PM »
Manned spaceflight is not a strategic thing. Having your own independent access to space for strategic (and thus unmanned) assets IS however. Hence why Europe has Ariane, has its own weather sats, has its own Earth observation program, has its own data relay sats, has its own spysats, has its own maritime support sats, has its own GPS equivalent, etc. etc.

What strategic value does having your own Mars orbiter, Jupiter satellite, Mars rover or space telescope have?

Those assets provide value - science data in the examples you've noted, and for other remote systems they also may provide tactical information such as communications and location information.

In order for a crew-capable spacecraft to produce value it needs to either perform a task in space on it's own (like the Shuttle could do with Spacelab) or be just a transportation system to take the crew to a place they can create value (like the ISS).

So at least for Europe, having a transportation system to space only makes sense if you have a destination in space that you want to have humans at.

Quote
And the $3 billion dollars spent on Hermes suggest that they can and will spend lots of money on things that, as you point out, don't have a strategic imperative.

I don't know the history of Hermes, but maybe they had a destination in mind when they were developing it, like the ISS, or maybe they did what governments go sometimes - spend money unwisely.

It would be great to expand the number of transportation systems that can take humans to space, but I'm not sure I see the business case for Europe to do that yet.

Is there a business case?
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline Rik ISS-fan

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #41 on: 09/15/2018 11:22 PM »
Just look at the budgets!!!
NASA has a 19Billion annual budget. 9 Billion goes to ISS & Exploration. [NASA NAC Chart]
ESA has <6 billion annual budget (if you combine all national space agencies budgets you'll end up below 9 billion.).
Less then 750mln is available for Human spaceflight and Exploration (? & microG).
So the budget available for human spaceflight in the US is 10x the size of the budget in Europe.
In another NAC HEO document [2] there is a more detailed NASA budget breakdown. And another interesting statistic on page 60: the visiting vehicle flights to the ISS were 13% of global annual launch demand in 2017. (12 of 92). So ISS is a mayor contribution to the space industry. I think few people realize this, unfortunately.

The development of a manned launch capability will be a optional ESA program. ESA memberstates could decide if they want to contribute to it. 

Woods, AFAIK ESA and Europe haven't all the strategic capabilities you list.
So there are more urgent capabilities requiring the funding. And then I've neglected non-space related stuff.

There are also EU REACH regulations that try to force the phaseout of Hydrazine, MON, MMH and UDMH. So all US manned launch systems could be banned because they use these fuels. (AFAIK only BlueOrigin tries to use green propellants.) Besides afaik there aren't engines in Europe for a launch escape system.
Given all these conditions, I think it would be plain stupid to try to get funding for a manned launch capability, because this could backfire on the long run. For the 2019 ESA ministerial they could only try to get funding to develop the technologies required for a manned launcher; Prometheus, SpaceRider, green propulsion and ECLSS systems. I forgot EXPERT the reentry demonstrator that is shelved in a cleanroom because the launch couldn't happen / be financed :-[

@Coastal Ron, wasn't the Copernicus orbital laboratory the destination for spacerider?
Maybe the US decision to end the ISS program in 2024. EU/ESA's requirement to be able to do microG research and the concepts to do that are the seed for the statement of Israel (Arianespace CEO).

Late edit: In my oppinion a Spacerider derived manned launch system is far beter than Dreamchaser.
« Last Edit: 09/15/2018 11:34 PM by Rik ISS-fan »

Offline TripleSeven

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #42 on: 09/15/2018 11:49 PM »


Odd comment. After Apollo we operated the Space Shuttle for 30 years, and the International Space Station has been occupied for almost 18 years. Just those two efforts have been major differences from Apollo.

Even Arianespace has changed over the decades, and now not only wants a new launcher (i.e. Ariane 6) but a crew-capable spacecraft. Change is constant.


LOL.  none of them had major differences from Apollo.  they all used government resources, government financed programs, government build programs,...the only real difference in the space station came with commercial cargo and crew

Arianespace has only changed launch vehicles...but they are doing the same thing
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You missed the forest for the trees again...   ;)

No


Quote
Do you have anything to say about THIS topic?

For me, I don't think Arianespace can get the funding for a full-up crew-capable spacecraft program, and though Europeans are very resourceful people in general, I'm not sure they have the knowledge and leadership needed for a cost-efficient development program.

It would be understandable if Europe wants to develop their own indigenous design, but I would hope they would consider licensing an existing one - like Dream Chaser...  :D

I have said what I wanted to say.  The Europeans see no value in human spaceflight.  they are happy to do barter arraingements with NASA because that "keeps them in the game" for not a lot of money...and NASA is  desperate to keep them in the game

the Europeans are far more practical in terms of what they spend money on.  they are spending "a lot" of money developing their own Global sat system.  why?  they feel it is essential to being not dependent on the US, they have tried doing business with the Russians and gotten burned on it..

and really the US wants them to develop Galileo.  this is the entire essence of GPS III...the two nav systems will be the world premier global navigation system...and they are happy to be a part of that...they can explain why money is being spent on it to the taxpayers

they dont think that they can do that for human spaceflight. 

they could do the program.  they have the technology, the technological base, and without a doubt the skill to do it.  they just dont think that they can sell it to the people who pay the money.

I dont see Europe developing an independent human spaceflight program.  they see no value in it for the Euro's spent.  there are more pressing issues both in space and on earth. 

eventually you will see Euro control and at some point what I think is going to be called "NorAmerica" control merge and there will be unified ATC from US/Canada all the way to Turkey.  and it is both the US and Euro space base nav and ATC control systems that are doing it.  that is a big space priority for them and the US right nwo

and that will change history
« Last Edit: 09/15/2018 11:52 PM by TripleSeven »

Offline TripleSeven

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #43 on: 09/15/2018 11:55 PM »

I don't know the history of Hermes, but maybe they had a destination in mind when they were developing it, like the ISS, or maybe they did what governments go sometimes - spend money unwisely.

It would be great to expand the number of transportation systems that can take humans to space, but I'm not sure I see the business case for Europe to do that yet.

Is there a business case?

there has not been and except for commercial crew, is not today a business case for human spaceflight.

Hermes was all about "pride" otherwise it had no real practical value.  did not even try to have

Offline Lar

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #44 on: 09/16/2018 02:55 AM »
I think that when people feel it necessary to say "I have said what I wanted to say" that.. .maybe... they should stop talking.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online ncb1397

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #45 on: 09/16/2018 04:39 AM »
Just look at the budgets!!!
NASA has a 19Billion annual budget. 9 Billion goes to ISS & Exploration. [NASA NAC Chart]
ESA has <6 billion annual budget (if you combine all national space agencies budgets you'll end up below 9 billion.).

I don't think it is that bad. This is what I got:

ESA:$6.5 B
DLR:$2.6 B
CNES:$2.8 B
UKSA:$.5 B
SNSA:$.1 B
ASI:$1.5 B
INTA: .2 B
Total:$14.2 B

There may be some money that is counted twice(ESA money that is managed by one of the local agencies for example) and some of these agencies have roles beyond NASA(DLR for instance does Energy research like DoE), but I think it is well over $10 B. I also maybe missed a local agency with a budget that isn't a rounding error.

edit:
base it off of this and you could do a one man vehicle on a pretty tight budget:
« Last Edit: 09/16/2018 08:01 AM by ncb1397 »

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #46 on: 09/16/2018 05:09 AM »
Odd comment. After Apollo we operated the Space Shuttle for 30 years, and the International Space Station has been occupied for almost 18 years. Just those two efforts have been major differences from Apollo.

none of them had major differences from Apollo.

You are WAY over generalizing. Like saying none of us is different because we're made from the same types of atoms.

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The Europeans see no value in human spaceflight.

They have demonstrated that they see value in human spaceflight by participating in the biggest space station program in the history of humanity.

And they previously thought they had an interest in creating their own space transportation system for humans too, but decided it wasn't worth pursuing.

But, as I already pointed out (and you appear to agree with), as of today they don't have enough of a business case to merit building their own space transportation system. However that could change if the cost were low enough, and they were willing to swallow their pride and license some American systems.

America has not returned to our Moon because of a lack of interest, but because of a lack of money. So the focus on lowering the cost to access space by American entities could end up helping the Europeans to be more active in space too. But that may not happen until New Glenn, and possibly the BFR/BFS are operating.
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline JMSC

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #47 on: 09/17/2018 05:25 PM »
Quote
And the $3 billion dollars spent on Hermes suggest that they can and will spend lots of money on things that, as you point out, don't have a strategic imperative.

Quote
I don't know the history of Hermes, but maybe they had a destination in mind when they were developing it, like the ISS, or maybe they did what governments go sometimes - spend money unwisely.

It would be great to expand the number of transportation systems that can take humans to space, but I'm not sure I see the business case for Europe to do that yet.

Is there a business case?

Its a very long time ago but from my space fanboy days in High School I do remember reading about the Hermes Program.  In essence the original Columbus program consisted of a good deal more than just the Columbus module attached to the ISS.  There was a polar platform and a Man Tended Free flyer as well.  Hermes was primarily intended to service the canceled Man Tended Free flyer and potentially make visits to the ISS as well. 

Is there a pure business case for Europe?  Probably not, manned space is still expensive even if a capsule derived from current US hardware would be much cheaper than Hermes.  However, I think there is a very good business case for Arianespace as a manned program, and possibly a resurrection of free flyer could create a need for 2-4 A6 launches a year.  After all it was government payloads that kept ULA and US launch capabilities going in dark days of the 90s and 00s when Arianespace and ILS essentially split the global commercial market between then.  And if Europe really wants to maintain the kind of capability A64 provides and have a nice kind of plant the flag national pride type program, a manned space program would work from that point view.  I personally think Arianespace is looking at the commercial GEO Sat marketplace and has determined that for the next decade or so they can't really count on getting the required 6-7 A64 launches each year thru 2030, they have based their industrial program for A6 on.  A manned program, if it didn't cost too much would likely guarantee they would launch at least 7 A64s a year (possibly more) and that they would still had a strong program when they move to reusable rockets sometime in the 2030s.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Columbus_Man-Tended_Free_Flyer

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