Author Topic: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights  (Read 4242 times)

Offline Eric Hedman

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Offline TripleSeven

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #1 on: 09/13/2018 03:38 PM »
Arianespace CEO Stephane Israel said, “Manned flight is close to my heart; with their know-how, Europeans could do it,”

Article in Aviation Week: http://aviationweek.com/world-satellite-business-week/arianespace-ceo-urges-europe-mull-manned-spaceflights?NL=AW-05&Issue=AW-05_20180913_AW-05_422&sfvc4enews=42&cl=article_2&utm_rid=CPEN1000002507287&utm_campaign=16439&utm_medium=email&elq2=c5034f8b89bd40b4aac61a130ca2fbed

the only thing that is stopping them is the "why" of it...why would they develop their own up down capability

Offline Rik ISS-fan

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #2 on: 09/13/2018 05:38 PM »
My view is that ESA / European space industry first have to get their current programs successfully completed. Thus a the launchers transition from Vega and Ariane 5 to Ariane 6 and Vega C/E. Besides also Spacerider have to be successfully developed. Only after this is done they could try to consider developing a manned launch capability.
 

Offline Kansan52

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #3 on: 09/13/2018 05:54 PM »
My answer is 'why not?'. They wanted an independent launch capability and built it. The potential of humans working and researching in LEO besides or in place of the ISS may be the reason. Starting the preliminary work now for a decade from now seems reasonable (IMHO).

Offline hektor

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #4 on: 09/13/2018 06:00 PM »
Would have been a good idea in the 90s.

Now it is far too late.
« Last Edit: 09/13/2018 06:00 PM by hektor »

Online gosnold

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #5 on: 09/13/2018 07:05 PM »
That's kind of strange for a business perspective: manned payloads are very expensive, so launches are few and far between, so Arianespace will only capture a small fraction of the ESA budget.
Cheap cargo vehicles (to refuel LOP-G or however you want to justify it) would be more launch-intensive and allow to capture a larger share of the ESA budget.

Online ncb1397

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #6 on: 09/13/2018 07:22 PM »
I wonder if Space Rider could be used to launch a single ESA astronaut to the ISS/LEO (they usually only have one on board anyways). The payload for it is listed as 800 kg while the mass of the mercury capsule was 1104 kg[1] with the heat shield massing 272 kg[1]. Of course, you would need to add an abort system (perhaps an integrated abort system?).

[1]http://www.astronautix.com/m/mercurycapsule.html

I believe the whole object is encapsulated currently, but looking at renderings, it doesn't seem completely incompatable with encapsulating just the service module providing for an abort path.

Offline rcoppola

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #7 on: 09/13/2018 07:25 PM »
Europe is well suited to embark upon a robust human exploration of the cosmos. It's a travesty that European countries with rich heritages in exploration and the pursuit of knowledge are sitting this out.
Sail the oceans of space and set foot upon new lands!
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Online ncb1397

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #8 on: 09/13/2018 07:29 PM »
That's kind of strange for a business perspective: manned payloads are very expensive, so launches are few and far between, so Arianespace will only capture a small fraction of the ESA budget.
Cheap cargo vehicles (to refuel LOP-G or however you want to justify it) would be more launch-intensive and allow to capture a larger share of the ESA budget.

Considering that they currently get ~0% of the ESA budget that goes to manned flight to LEO and back (aren't involved with Orion service module/Commercial Crew), it makes perfect sense from a business perspective.

Offline SciNews

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #9 on: 09/13/2018 08:00 PM »
Earlier this year
Quote
Will Ariane 6 be man-rated?
A: Human exploration will be done in cooperation with other countries, and the USA are developing a launcher for human exploration, so no Ariane will not be man-rated. However nowadays manrating would not be done by increasing the margins in the design, but by using a proven commercial launcher with a good track record.
https://satelliteobservation.net/2018/05/21/ariane-6-and-beyond/

Offline RonM

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #10 on: 09/13/2018 10:56 PM »
Unless there is a need for home grown capability, buying rides on Starliner or Dragon 2 would make more sense.

Arianspaces's CEO is probably just trying to drum up some business.

Offline Chasm

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #11 on: 09/14/2018 12:21 AM »
Since Ariane 6 turned out to be a stop gap rocket time to fill the wish list for the next one. ;D

I think Rik got it right.
Get the current rocket projects done. Make Space Rider a thing that actually works. Introduce reuse with Ariane Next... And only then perhaps do the actual human spaceflight stuff.

Offline JMSC

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #12 on: 09/14/2018 04:28 AM »
Launching 1-2 manned flights a year on the A62/64 would be keeping with Arianespace's keep the money for launching EU payloads in the EU strategy (or spend the money Arianespace rockets).  ESA is already developing the European service module for Orion and it shouldn't be too expensive to integrate the module with A6.  Now all they really need is to develop a suitable manned capsule and make the necessary mods to the A6 infrastructure and they could have a manned capability for a lot cheaper than the 1980s Hermes space plane.  An ESA version of Lockheed's proposed Orion Lite or Boeing's CST-100 would probably fit the bill for not too big of an investment. 

This way Arianespace can fill out the necessary 11-12 A6 launches a year they need to keep the program going in what looks to be a very competitive launch market in the 2020s and at a price that the EU might actually agree to pay.  So if they can sell the necessary governments on the project go for it.  If Boeing is spending $4.2 billion to develop the CST-100, $7 billion or so spread out over a decade (very rough guess) would probably come close to funding the entire program for a A6/CST-100 derivative system.
« Last Edit: 09/14/2018 04:29 AM by JMSC »

Offline Darkseraph

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #13 on: 09/14/2018 05:00 AM »
If the ISS gets extended to 2030, Europe could take the work done so far on Orion Service Module, integrate it with a capsule/spaceplane and use this system for both crew and cargo deliveries on Ariane 6. Work on ATV has already given Europe autonomous docking capabilities. A scheme like this would push up the launch rate of Ariane 6, pay for European use of the ISS and reduce dependency on Russia. Such a system could even potentially visit the future Chinese Space Station.

On a minor note, it's kind of embarrassing Europe lacks an indigenous human spaceflight capability. It's not a money problem, collectively European states have a GDP equivalent to the United States and far greater than China, Russia or India. It's not a technical problem either, the know-how exists in Europe to achieve this and even greater things. If it really wanted, Europe could have a lunar base with a completely reusable architecture based on refueling upper stages of Ariane-6 sized vehicles and ISRU. What seems to be lacking is the will. Part of this might be due to its terrible legacy with colonialism, which is understandable: European empires committed massive crimes against humanity all around the world and anything that sounds expansionist or colonial has a bad reputation on the continent. Whatever the block is, I hope it is overcome and the peaceful exploration and settlement of space becomes a driving force in Europe in the near future. Who knows, perhaps even Space Solar Power would offer Europe in the future a way to ween itself off Russian gas :/
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." R.P.Feynman

Offline woods170

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #14 on: 09/14/2018 06:23 AM »
Arianespace CEO Stephane Israel said, “Manned flight is close to my heart; with their know-how, Europeans could do it,”

Article in Aviation Week: http://aviationweek.com/world-satellite-business-week/arianespace-ceo-urges-europe-mull-manned-spaceflights?NL=AW-05&Issue=AW-05_20180913_AW-05_422&sfvc4enews=42&cl=article_2&utm_rid=CPEN1000002507287&utm_campaign=16439&utm_medium=email&elq2=c5034f8b89bd40b4aac61a130ca2fbed

the only thing that is stopping them is the "why" of it...why would they develop their own up down capability

No. The "why" is not stopping them. The boatload of required Euros is stopping them. Remember, ESA is living on a shoestring budget compared to NASA's budget.
Also, ESA has not gotten over the Hermes-debacle yet.

Offline woods170

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #15 on: 09/14/2018 06:24 AM »
Would have been a good idea in the 90s.

Now it is far too late.

ESA actually tried in the 1990's (and again in the early 2000's). Both times they failed. Both times for the same reason: lack of political will and lack of money.

Offline woods170

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #16 on: 09/14/2018 06:28 AM »
My answer is 'why not?'. They wanted an independent launch capability and built it. The potential of humans working and researching in LEO besides or in place of the ISS may be the reason. Starting the preliminary work now for a decade from now seems reasonable (IMHO).

Why develop your own capability when you can get it from the Russians for cheap?
Why develop your own capability when you have flight opportunities aboard Orion in exchange for building the ESM?
Why develop your own capability when you are working on flying together with the Chinese as well?
Why develop your own capability when you can just rent it from SpaceX just a few years from now?
Why develop your own capability when you can just rent if from Blue Origin in a decade from now?

Offline Rik ISS-fan

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #17 on: 09/14/2018 01:40 PM »
Woods you've forgotten Boeing with the Starliner (CST-100).

For manrating Ariane 6 I guess the solids will be a problem.
Besides the ATV derived European Service module is far to heavy.
And there is no launch escape system. There aren't suitable launch escape engines.
So there isn't an easy path towards a human launch capability.
But Europe a has tested their capsule reentry technology and IXV reentry system. But a third reentry technology demonstration vehicle has been shalved into a cleanroom, because it couldn't be launched (EXPERT).
And indeed ESA / Europe is far from over the Hermes debacle. (AFAIK Dreamchaser is a bit based on it.)

Offline RonM

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #18 on: 09/14/2018 02:19 PM »
Possible options for crewed flight a decade from now: Russia (Soyuz or Federation), China (Shenzhou), India (Gaganyaan), NASA (Orion), Boeing (Starliner), SpaceX (Dragon 2 or BFS), Blue Origin (?), and Sierra Nevada (Dream Chaser).

Some of these systems might be cancelled or never leave the PowerPoint stage, but some of them will be available. With so many options, I think Europe should save its money and buy seats instead of building their own spacecraft.

Offline TripleSeven

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Re: Arianespace CEO Urges Europe To Mull Manned Spaceflights
« Reply #19 on: 09/14/2018 02:25 PM »
Arianespace CEO Stephane Israel said, “Manned flight is close to my heart; with their know-how, Europeans could do it,”

Article in Aviation Week: http://aviationweek.com/world-satellite-business-week/arianespace-ceo-urges-europe-mull-manned-spaceflights?NL=AW-05&Issue=AW-05_20180913_AW-05_422&sfvc4enews=42&cl=article_2&utm_rid=CPEN1000002507287&utm_campaign=16439&utm_medium=email&elq2=c5034f8b89bd40b4aac61a130ca2fbed

the only thing that is stopping them is the "why" of it...why would they develop their own up down capability

No. The "why" is not stopping them. The boatload of required Euros is stopping them. Remember, ESA is living on a shoestring budget compared to NASA's budget.
Also, ESA has not gotten over the Hermes-debacle yet.

the "why" is "why" to spend the Euros ...the Europeans are not like the US...they dont stay wrapped up in things that didnt "work right" for long...they tend to move on.

it makes no real sense for them to spend a lot of Euros on a vehicle...when they could go to Boeing or SpaceX (and within 5 years BO) and plop down not a lot of cash and put people on the bird.  the countries there are not ego driven like say the US or Chinese or Indians are.

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