Author Topic: SpaceX Dragon 2 Updates and Discussion - Thread 3  (Read 815084 times)

Offline woods170

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Re: SpaceX Dragon 2 Updates and Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #420 on: 11/10/2018 09:16 am »
while generally agreed,
the Armstrong / Scott Gemini # flight comes to mind where a degree of manual intervention and decision making is required.  other situations, e.g Appolo 13, also might qualify as "outliers".  Just a thought.


Gemini-8 situation no longer applies. I've explained why in this other post.

Offline woods170

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Re: SpaceX Dragon 2 Updates and Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #421 on: 11/10/2018 09:20 am »
All this faith in the systems may be justified, but I still think it's a case of "hope for the best but plan for the worst". There's a reason so much training is devoted to emergency procedures. If it were as foolproof as ideally hoped, why not just remove all the displays and controls completely from the manned spacecraft and use that weight savings to bring more cargo mass into orbit?

What exactly do you propose the astronauts would be physically (or fly-by-wire) able to do in an emergency? It's not like there's a yoke and stick tucked in the armrest they can pop out and "wing it".  The calculations required to burn the thrusters so the situation does not become worse are quite frankly "impossible" for a human to do on the fly (i.e. in an emergency).  Other than that, I just can't come up with any other instances of "human capable" tasks that exist on this capsule that fit this emergency procedure list.  I would love to hear your insight as to what they could be though, I am certainly not an astronaut who has trained in this capsule, or even anything resembling an expert, or lay-person at best!

Let me put it this way.

Every single manned launch since Yuri Gagarin had a computer in control of the launch vehicle during ascent. Simply because it is almost impossible to manually steer the rocket successfully to orbit. If something goes seriously wrong on a manned launch than usually the only viable option is to abort.
« Last Edit: 11/10/2018 12:08 pm by woods170 »

Online clongton

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Re: SpaceX Dragon 2 Updates and Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #422 on: 11/10/2018 01:57 pm »
So many younger/newer folks are simply in denial.
Humans will *not* fly these spacecraft. They are simply passengers.
Well educated passengers, but JUST passengers nonetheless.
« Last Edit: 11/10/2018 01:57 pm by clongton »
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Offline Swedish chef

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Re: SpaceX Dragon 2 Updates and Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #423 on: 11/10/2018 02:35 pm »
So many younger/newer folks are simply in denial.
Humans will *not* fly these spacecraft. They are simply passengers.
Well educated passengers, but JUST passengers nonetheless.

Yes and no, humans will fly these spacecraft but it wont be the astronauts it will be the programmers that make the code that governs the computers on this spacecraft.

Offline speedevil

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Re: SpaceX Dragon 2 Updates and Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #424 on: 11/10/2018 02:36 pm »
Yes and no, humans will fly these spacecraft but it wont be the astronauts it will be the programmers that make the code that governs the computers on this spacecraft.
This argument has the benefit that it makes the human space program _way_ cheaper.

Online Coastal Ron

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Re: SpaceX Dragon 2 Updates and Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #425 on: 11/10/2018 03:11 pm »
Yes and no, humans will fly these spacecraft but it wont be the astronauts it will be the programmers that make the code that governs the computers on this spacecraft.

I just want to clarify that it is not "programmers" that make the decisions - they just code what they are told to code.

The software in these spacecraft will be executing decision trees that have been laid out by those within their respective companies responsible for determining what scenarios require immediate action or just an alarm. In other words, those within each company responsible for making life and death level decisions. Those that program software don't determine that logic, they just implement it.

And I'm sure there are committees that determine those decision trees, just as there are committees that review the decision trees for modern aircraft. For instance, the recent Lion Air crash highlighted a change that Boeing made for just the 737 Max series where the autopilot behaves differently than other 737 models - some think that could have contributed to the recent Lion Air crash. No doubt Boeing made the changes to the 737 Max because they felt it would lead to a safer vehicle, and a committee would have reviewed that proposed change.

Without yet knowing the cause of the Lion Air crash, it does highlight how important decision trees are, especially when taking into account multiple issues and/or imperfect information inputs. Let's hope the decision tree for Commercial Crew is not too complicated...
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline kevinof

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Re: SpaceX Dragon 2 Updates and Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #426 on: 11/10/2018 03:27 pm »
To those that advocate that "there must be lots of buttons" or "astros must be able to have control" and that it's unacceptable not to have them, remember that this design has been signed off by Nasa, probably one of the most conservative organizations around.

Re: SpaceX Dragon 2 Updates and Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #427 on: 11/12/2018 07:12 pm »
So many younger/newer folks are simply in denial.
Humans will *not* fly these spacecraft. They are simply passengers.
Well educated passengers, but JUST passengers nonetheless.

Not saying this defensively as I 100% agree with this, but as a younger space travel amazing people, fresh and spry at 26, I don't see the argument that the passengers MUST be in control. It's much simpler and cost effective to just prepare the astros for space flight, rather than put even more time and effort and money into training them all how to fly the spacecraft. Especially when you got the modern avionics systems on board, and 100s of pilots remotely monitoring and commanding the spacecraft from the ground. If something so critically goes wrong that all backups are made useless, then who's to say you'd still be able to control the spacecraft locally, anyway? Strap the brave women and men into their seats, tell them to sit back and enjoy the ride, and leave it to the computers and ground crew.

Offline Oersted

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Re: SpaceX Dragon 2 Updates and Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #428 on: 11/13/2018 09:43 pm »
A safe system must be able to deal with comms and telemetry outages, so there has to be the possibility of autonomous control. And what about when SpaceX flies to Mars?

Offline joek

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Re: SpaceX Dragon 2 Updates and Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #429 on: 11/13/2018 10:40 pm »
So many younger/newer folks are simply in denial.
Humans will *not* fly these spacecraft. They are simply passengers.
Well educated passengers, but JUST passengers nonetheless.
Not saying this defensively as I 100% agree with this, but as a younger space travel amazing people, fresh and spry at 26, I don't see the argument that the passengers MUST be in control. ...

Depends on what you mean by "fly" or "in control".  Certainly not the stick-and-pedal type most people think of.  Nor are they simply passengers; more akin to systems directors-managers.

Offline ngilmore

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Re: SpaceX Dragon 2 Updates and Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #430 on: 11/13/2018 11:39 pm »
I don't know enough to say whether controls like joysticks are potentially useful enough to include, although I think their usage would be exceptional, not normal.

However, sometimes you'd like to drop from the GUI down to the command line, metaphorically speaking.

Anway, for this conversation, I wonder if the designers will include a really simple low level (still touch-screen) interface that could let you make pretty low level changes to system settings without all the autonomy. So think of it as instead of having 1 million lines of code mediating your control of the craft, there are just 100,000 lines of code mediating your control. Sort of the neo-cortex vs. the reptile brain.

Consider Michael Foale's experience on Mir, when Progress M-34 crashed into it.
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2013/08/the-amazing-space-adventures-of-michael-foale/

If you haven't come across this yet, I found the transcript of Michael Foale's keynote address at the 10th Anniversary Mathematica Congress to be a great read. He discusses how he used Mathematica to compute the impulses needed to de-spin the Mir station.

http://www.mathematica-journal.com/issue/v7i3/special/transcript/html/

It's a long and rich article, I'm sure you'll all enjoy it. Be sure to read the section "Answering questions from the audience".

Excerpt:
Quote
So my whole task was to basically try to figure out what the rotation was, null it, establish an orientation, and then spin. But the problem with the station is that it has unequal moments of inertia.

I remembered from my days in Cambridge that there were these things called Euler's equations, which you use to describe a rigid body that has unequal moments of inertia. So if you think of the Mir having an a-axis, a b-axis, and a c-axis, there are unequal moments of inertia about those. When you put a spin on the station, generally the spinners are not going to stay about one of these axes, unless it's the eigenvector of the inertia tensor.

The problem is sufficiently complicated, at least for my intellect, and I tried to solve this problem using Mathematica in orbit.

I started off basically with these matrices. I said, "What are the rotation matrices about the three axes?" I use those because that's the convention that's used by Euler. I must say -- this is no ping on Mathematica -- but Mathematica does not implement Euler angles the way I was taught them at Cambridge. Taking those matrices allows you to transfer from the rotating body back to space. In Euler's equations -- if you look at the definition of an inertia tensor -- the angular momentum J is just the sum of the moment times the momentum of each particle.

The point here is that it's a tensor, and it combines with the angular momentum vector in the rotating body frame to make the total angular momentum. And only when it's the eigenaxis -- so you have lambda here -- do you actually have a rotation that doesn't change to another axis. That, for me, as an astronaut on the Mir, meant that if I could only find the eigenaxis of the inertia tensor, and get us spinning about it, we'd stay stable and the arrays would still point. That was my goal. But there is another trick in this, and that is, if you have an irregular body with three unequal moments of inertia, the middle axis of inertia is unstable. And it's not unstable in a precise sense, but there's a momentum exchange between the other axes. You have to be right on it -- infinitesimally close -- for it to remain there.

The Euler equations are solved (with) the highlighted equation in the body frame, and then using those Euler matrices to transform it back to the space frame. I knew these equations were what I needed to solve this problem. But every time I set this up in Mathematica, we would lose power again. I remember a time when I was setting these equations up, and the whole station powered down, the laptop went dead, and I lost what I had done; and we were once again, for thirty hours, charging around trying to get the station back into shape again. I ended up resorting to what I had in space, which was zero gravity, and making a model and spinning it.
Quote
It turned out that the c-axis was the middle moment of inertia, which is unstable; and so we did this flip-flop that actually reduced the power we had and made it much more difficult for us. If -- and this was not the case -- we'd been able to rotate in roll, about the a-axis towards the sun, and then those solar arrays -- as long as they weren't totally shadowed by each other -- would have been able to generate power stably in that configuration. And the a-axis is actually the smallest one of them. The a-axis I called about 1; the c-axis is about 1.1, 1.2 in the package; and the b-axis is about 1.3. They're pretty close to each other.

These moments of inertia are not well known by the ground control, because the payload on board is being moved around. When Progresses come up and trash leaves, things are being moved around, and they lose track of exactly where all the stuff is on the station. With water moving around on board the station as well -- the condensation on the walls, maybe seven tons of water moving about on the walls -- it was very hard to know exactly what these moments were. But I did figure out, from a number of attempts to do this, that the c-axis is, indeed, the most unstable axis to use -- and each rotation is roughly twenty minutes. But the arrays lost track of the sun, and we ended up upside-down in relation to the sun. And then the cycle would continue. And this whole flip to upright again, where the solar arrays are once again able to track perpendicular to the sun, became the way we set it up. This cycle would last about eight or nine hours.

You can see that this is not the ideal way to spin a station. There was just enough energy -- in spite of this transition that was going on, where it flipped upside down -- there was enough energy obtained by those arrays to let us do the repairs over a thirty-hour period, reestablish the computers on the base block, turn the engines on, stop the station dead, and then slowly rebuild the attitude control and navigation platform.


Offline woods170

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Re: SpaceX Dragon 2 Updates and Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #431 on: 11/14/2018 07:03 am »
A safe system must be able to deal with comms and telemetry outages, so there has to be the possibility of autonomous control. And what about when SpaceX flies to Mars?

Comms and telemetry outages are covered by having redundancy. One would have to have TWO combined Apollo 13 type failures to have all the comms and all the telemetry systems go offline.
In which case the crew is dead anyway.
So no need to give the crew override capabilities for something that will ultimately not save their lives.

But some people will never learn that you can't build spacecraft to survive every possible failure mode.

Online clongton

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Re: SpaceX Dragon 2 Updates and Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #432 on: 11/14/2018 11:47 am »
Death is the ever-present companion of all who travel to dangerous places.
Only the fool denies this stark fact.
Chuck - DIRECT co-founder
I started my career on the Saturn-V F-1A engine

Offline born01930

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Re: SpaceX Dragon 2 Updates and Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #433 on: 11/14/2018 11:51 am »
Apollo 12 after the lightning strike may be a better example....yes S5 guidance kept them flying but Conrad controlled the decision to not abort. Will such decision making still be retained by the commander?

Offline woods170

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Re: SpaceX Dragon 2 Updates and Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #434 on: 11/14/2018 12:21 pm »
Apollo 12 after the lightning strike may be a better example....yes S5 guidance kept them flying but Conrad controlled the decision to not abort. Will such decision making still be retained by the commander?

Very good example: both Crew Dragon and Apollo have both auto-abort routines and manual abort capabilities.

On Apollo 12 the stack got hit by lightning. The only effect it had was throwing into disarray the primary channel of the signal conditioning equipment aboard the Command Module as well as the guidance platform of the Command Module. The rocket (Saturn V) itself kept flying just fine: its guidance system was not affected.

During ascent the Saturn V stack is guided by the guidance platform in the Instrument Unit on top of the S-IVB stage. In short: during ascent the Saturn V stack is controlled by a flight control system that is part of the Saturn V itself.

The flight control system on board the Apollo Command and Service Module only controls the CSM, not Saturn V.

So, when lightning struck Apollo 12 it only affected the CSM. The rocket never experienced any failure or other ill effects from the lightning strike. As such, no auto-abort was executed by S5.

Pete Conrad also kept his cool and never used the manual abort capability.

On Crew Dragon just about the only thing the crew can do to intervene in the computer-controlled ascent is to use the manual abort capability. Which will end the flight.
The crew does not have capability to "manually" fly the rocket to orbit. Either the computer successfully flies the rocket to orbit, or ascent is aborted. There are no other options.

Which is fine. Because those are the only options needed.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Online clongton

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Re: SpaceX Dragon 2 Updates and Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #436 on: 11/14/2018 04:46 pm »
On Crew Dragon just about the only thing the crew can do to intervene in the computer-controlled ascent is to use the manual abort capability. Which will end the flight.

The flight avionics are so sophisticated that by the time the human brain can process the alarms it is hearing and decide to execute a manual abort the avionics will have already identified the fault, decided an abort is required, blown the hold-down bolts and have ignited the abort engines. The Crew Dragon will already be away from the Falcon 9 and under abort acceleration before the Commander can even form the words "abort".
« Last Edit: 11/14/2018 04:48 pm by clongton »
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I started my career on the Saturn-V F-1A engine

Online mn

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Re: SpaceX Dragon 2 Updates and Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #437 on: 11/14/2018 05:20 pm »
The avionics can be wrong.

(Whether or not the crew can do anything about it is another question entirely)

New reports out of the Lion Air crash suggest that the failure may have been a new safety system gone wrong due to bad input from a sensor. The crew apparently did not know about this system nor about how to turn it off if needed). (google Lion Air Crash for numerous references).

Online envy887

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Re: SpaceX Dragon 2 Updates and Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #438 on: 11/14/2018 07:26 pm »
The avionics can be wrong.

(Whether or not the crew can do anything about it is another question entirely)

New reports out of the Lion Air crash suggest that the failure may have been a new safety system gone wrong due to bad input from a sensor. The crew apparently did not know about this system nor about how to turn it off if needed). (google Lion Air Crash for numerous references).

That's why Dragon has a LAS. If Falcon has a problem and reports it to Dragon, Dragon scrams. If Falcon fails to determine or report the problem, Dragon has its own sensor suite and scrams once it detects the problem independently.

Offline RDMM2081

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Re: SpaceX Dragon 2 Updates and Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #439 on: 11/15/2018 12:43 am »
What about a case where a crew member was having a health issue as a result of the stress of launch?  Could this be a case to cause the commander to initiate a manual abort that the computer would not otherwise initiate?

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