SpaceX Dragon 2 Updates and Discussion - Thread 3

[theinternetftw]

Sounds like there will be space tourism flights using Crew Dragon. I wonder if the lunar flyby plan will be restored, just like how Gwynne saved FH from cancellation.

The 7 billion doesn't sound like it could be crew dragon. Mature BFR P2P could be loosely described as 'everyone' (neglecting many people can't hope to afford $1K). $1-10M really can't.

I think she's just loosely referring to tourism possibilities and not tying it to a platform in her mind.

Note though that in her recent Q&A she mentioned that a tourism announcement is forthcoming.  So separate from the 7 billion quote there's reason to believe Dragon is back as a tourist platform.

[kevinof]

I know's there's been talk of using returned as cargo but what if they planned to keep some as flyable crew for private use? Why not? Their own staff will need experience in orbit when they get BFS done.

[AbuSimbel]

Sounds like there will be space tourism flights using Crew Dragon. I wonder if the lunar flyby plan will be restored, just like how Gwynne saved FH from cancellation.

The 7 billion doesn't sound like it could be crew dragon. Mature BFR P2P could be loosely described as 'everyone' (neglecting many people can't hope to afford $1K). $1-10M really can't.

I think she's just loosely referring to tourism possibilities and not tying it to a platform in her mind.

Note though that in her recent Q&A she mentioned that a tourism announcement is forthcoming.  So separate from the 7 billion quote there's reason to believe Dragon is back as a tourist platform.

Yesterday, in Luxembourg, Gwynne also said "Crew flight will grow to be the majority of our business in the future”. You can bet she's talking about the BFR. Everyone's focusing on P2P, but that's a later goal. It's the perfect platform for orbital tourism, no competitor even comes close and you don't have to achieve airliner level safety. I'd bet it will be a very consistent part of BFR's business. Probably the vast majority of the launches until P2P becomes a thing.

We'll see what the announcement is about.

[Star One]

Sounds like there will be space tourism flights using Crew Dragon. I wonder if the lunar flyby plan will be restored, just like how Gwynne saved FH from cancellation.

The 7 billion doesn't sound like it could be crew dragon. Mature BFR P2P could be loosely described as 'everyone' (neglecting many people can't hope to afford $1K). $1-10M really can't.

I think she's just loosely referring to tourism possibilities and not tying it to a platform in her mind.

Note though that in her recent Q&A she mentioned that a tourism announcement is forthcoming.  So separate from the 7 billion quote there's reason to believe Dragon is back as a tourist platform.

Yesterday, in Luxembourg, Gwynne also said "Crew flight will grow to be the majority of our business in the future”. You can bet she's talking about the BFR. Everyone's focusing on P2P, but that's a later goal. It's the perfect platform for orbital tourism, no competitor even comes close and you don't have to achieve airliner level safety. I'd bet it will be a very consistent part of BFR's business. Probably the vast majority of the launches until P2P becomes a thing.

We'll see what the announcement is about.

I don’t see how you can support the statement that you don’t have to achieve airline safety levels if you expect it to carry aircraft numbers of people.

[Robotbeat]

Cars carry more than airline levels of people and don’t have airline safety. BFR can get to airline level safety, but it’ll take decades to tweak and prove it. Just like it did for airlines. But if you credit P2P’s time saved to its safety, it can effectively beat airlines on an expected useful lifespan basis earlier than you might think.

Also, the whole world is getting richer, especially on the bottom. That trend helps SpaceX’s P2P business.

I think Gwynne is talking about P2P. She believes in it, maybe more than Elon.

[AbuSimbel]

Sounds like there will be space tourism flights using Crew Dragon. I wonder if the lunar flyby plan will be restored, just like how Gwynne saved FH from cancellation.

The 7 billion doesn't sound like it could be crew dragon. Mature BFR P2P could be loosely described as 'everyone' (neglecting many people can't hope to afford $1K). $1-10M really can't.

I think she's just loosely referring to tourism possibilities and not tying it to a platform in her mind.

Note though that in her recent Q&A she mentioned that a tourism announcement is forthcoming.  So separate from the 7 billion quote there's reason to believe Dragon is back as a tourist platform.

Yesterday, in Luxembourg, Gwynne also said "Crew flight will grow to be the majority of our business in the future”. You can bet she's talking about the BFR. Everyone's focusing on P2P, but that's a later goal. It's the perfect platform for orbital tourism, no competitor even comes close and you don't have to achieve airliner level safety. I'd bet it will be a very consistent part of BFR's business. Probably the vast majority of the launches until P2P becomes a thing.

We'll see what the announcement is about.

I don’t see how you can support the statement that you don’t have to achieve airline safety levels if you expect it to carry aircraft numbers of people.

Where did I say I expect it to carry aircraft numbers of people?

My point is that orbital tourism doesn't have to compete with airliners wrt safety, unlike P2P. If you have to go from NY to Paris you can choose a safer airliner, but if you want to orbit the Earth there won't be a better, more reliable option than the BFR for quite a bit of time.

That's a relatively huge market for current spaceflight standards.

[speedevil]

My point is that orbital tourism doesn't have to compete with airliners wrt safety, unlike P2P. If you have to go from NY to Paris you can choose a safer airliner, but if you want to orbit the Earth there won't be a better, more reliable option than the BFR for quite a bit of time.

That's a relatively huge market for current spaceflight standards.

BFS commercial tourism would be another thread unless you're planning on launching crew on D2.
Which would be odd, but I guess possible.

[TripleSeven]

Based on the Gwynne Shotwell quote from Jeff Foust's tweet:

Shotwell: decline in GEO business is not a “crushing blow” for us. Seeing strong growth in DOD business, but also later with commercial crew: “7 billion potential payloads”

Sounds like there will be space tourism flights using Crew Dragon. I wonder if the lunar flyby plan will be restored, just like how Gwynne saved FH from cancellation.

the entire "pull" of Commercial crew is that the folks who are providing it can sale excess seats...this is what makes it "special"

[kevinof]

This is nothing to do with the commercial crew program. It's not selling a spare seat on a a Nasa flight.

[nacnud]

No but you could conceivably sell seats on a different flight once the vehicles are available. Without the commercial crew program those vehicles would not have been developed.

[kevinof]

Yes. And Nasa don't want to re-use the D2 so why not turn some/all of them into private launches. Either for paying tourists or SpaceX staff, or both.

No but you could conceivably sell seats on a different flight once the vehicles are available. Without the commercial crew program those vehicles would not have been developed.

[envy887]

Based on the Gwynne Shotwell quote from Jeff Foust's tweet:

Shotwell: decline in GEO business is not a “crushing blow” for us. Seeing strong growth in DOD business, but also later with commercial crew: “7 billion potential payloads”

Sounds like there will be space tourism flights using Crew Dragon. I wonder if the lunar flyby plan will be restored, just like how Gwynne saved FH from cancellation.

the entire "pull" of Commercial crew is that the folks who are providing it can sale excess seats...this is what makes it "special"

That's not actually happening, and I highly doubt that the CC providers are or were counting on that for revenue. NASA is buying the excess volume on crew missions for cargo.

The point of CC is that a competitive commercial environment results in a cheaper, better product than a sole-sourced NASA-run project. Privately purchased flights improves the effectiveness of commercializing crew transport, but is not the main reason for it or even necessary at all.

[Coastal Ron]

Based on the Gwynne Shotwell quote from Jeff Foust's tweet:

Shotwell: decline in GEO business is not a “crushing blow” for us. Seeing strong growth in DOD business, but also later with commercial crew: “7 billion potential payloads”

Sounds like there will be space tourism flights using Crew Dragon. I wonder if the lunar flyby plan will be restored, just like how Gwynne saved FH from cancellation.

the entire "pull" of Commercial crew is that the folks who are providing it can sale excess seats...this is what makes it "special"

NASA contracts for the entire flight to the ISS, so you are mistaken that Boeing and SpaceX have rights to sell unused seats - which actually there never will be, since NASA intends to fill all four seats on every flight as part of their ISS expansion plans (i.e. ISS crew going from 6 to 7 to increase science output).

The reason Boeing and SpaceX put their own money into Commercial Crew is that they thought there would be customers who would want to fly on non-NASA flights, such as what Bob Bigelow wants to do with his Bigelow Stations. And that is what Shotwell is referencing.

[Cheapchips]

It'd make some sense for SX to reuse D2's for tourist flights. It's a waste having them, and F9's, sitting idle.

Probably at least $30m in SX's coffers each time, at the small risk of blowing up someone high profile.

How many customers could they actually find at current prices?  $10m+ to ride share.  $60m+ to have a Dragon to yourself.  That's for an orbit experience with a toilet in the corner and no destination.  You also pay this knowing that in the next decade they're aiming for airline prices.

[envy887]

It'd make some sense for SX to reuse D2's for tourist flights. It's a waste having them, and F9's, sitting idle.

Probably at least $30m in SX's coffers each time, at the small risk of blowing up someone high profile.

How many customers could they actually find at current prices?  $10m+ to ride share.  $60m+ to have a Dragon to yourself.  That's for an orbit experience with a toilet in the corner and no destination.  You also pay this knowing that in the next decade they're aiming for airline prices.

F9 could toss D2 to about 10,000 km apogee. Be the first private astronaut beyond LEO, and see the entire Earth out one window.

[TripleSeven]

Based on the Gwynne Shotwell quote from Jeff Foust's tweet:

Shotwell: decline in GEO business is not a “crushing blow” for us. Seeing strong growth in DOD business, but also later with commercial crew: “7 billion potential payloads”

Sounds like there will be space tourism flights using Crew Dragon. I wonder if the lunar flyby plan will be restored, just like how Gwynne saved FH from cancellation.

the entire "pull" of Commercial crew is that the folks who are providing it can sale excess seats...this is what makes it "special"

NASA contracts for the entire flight to the ISS, so you are mistaken that Boeing and SpaceX have rights to sell unused seats - which actually there never will be, since NASA intends to fill all four seats on every flight as part of their ISS expansion plans (i.e. ISS crew going from 6 to 7 to increase science output).

The reason Boeing and SpaceX put their own money into Commercial Crew is that they thought there would be customers who would want to fly on non-NASA flights, such as what Bob Bigelow wants to do with his Bigelow Stations. And that is what Shotwell is referencing.

if NASA takes four seats at least in the Boeing version there are places for 7.  Boeing will sale that excess capability  I dont know about SpaceX but Boeing will

to me that Tweet of her's is a joke, having some fun...there is nothing substantive in it

[TripleSeven]

Based on the Gwynne Shotwell quote from Jeff Foust's tweet:

Shotwell: decline in GEO business is not a “crushing blow” for us. Seeing strong growth in DOD business, but also later with commercial crew: “7 billion potential payloads”

Sounds like there will be space tourism flights using Crew Dragon. I wonder if the lunar flyby plan will be restored, just like how Gwynne saved FH from cancellation.

the entire "pull" of Commercial crew is that the folks who are providing it can sale excess seats...this is what makes it "special"

That's not actually happening, and I highly doubt that the CC providers are or were counting on that for revenue. NASA is buying the excess volume on crew missions for cargo.

The point of CC is that a competitive commercial environment results in a cheaper, better product than a sole-sourced NASA-run project. Privately purchased flights improves the effectiveness of commercializing crew transport, but is not the main reason for it or even necessary at all.

I have no idea what SpaceX is going to do but Boeing is still intending to sell the seats

this is from a Boeing "piece" on the Spaceliner a few months ago

"The Starliner was designed to accommodate as many as seven passengers or a mix of crew and cargo. For NASA missions to the International Space Station, the spacecraft will carry as many as five passengers — four NASA astronauts with room for a fifth paying passenger. This flexibility allows for a variety of missions to destinations in low-Earth orbit."

[Cheapchips]

It'd make some sense for SX to reuse D2's for tourist flights. It's a waste having them, and F9's, sitting idle.

Probably at least $30m in SX's coffers each time, at the small risk of blowing up someone high profile.

How many customers could they actually find at current prices?  $10m+ to ride share.  $60m+ to have a Dragon to yourself.  That's for an orbit experience with a toilet in the corner and no destination.  You also pay this knowing that in the next decade they're aiming for airline prices.

F9 could toss D2 to about 10,000 km apogee. Be the first private astronaut beyond LEO, and see the entire Earth out one window.

That'd be amazing. I didn't mean to present an overly cynical view!

They've had plenty of tourist interest based on prior Mush/Shotwell comments.  I'd like to understand how big the D2 tourist market could be.

[su27k]

the entire "pull" of Commercial crew is that the folks who are providing it can sale excess seats...this is what makes it "special"

NASA contracts for the entire flight to the ISS, so you are mistaken that Boeing and SpaceX have rights to sell unused seats - which actually there never will be, since NASA intends to fill all four seats on every flight as part of their ISS expansion plans (i.e. ISS crew going from 6 to 7 to increase science output).

The commercial crew contract does allow selling extra seats on NASA flights (the 5th seat for example), but there're some pre-conditions, for example the company will need to provide consumables for the tourist (oxygen, water, food, etc), not sure how feasible this is. Also if the tourist doesn't want to stay for 6 months, then he/she will need to launch on one company's ship and return on the other company's ship, so the deal needs both companies to work.

I'm guessing the tourist deal Gwynne mentioned would much more likely be non-NASA flights.

[envy887]

Based on the Gwynne Shotwell quote from Jeff Foust's tweet:

Shotwell: decline in GEO business is not a “crushing blow” for us. Seeing strong growth in DOD business, but also later with commercial crew: “7 billion potential payloads”

Sounds like there will be space tourism flights using Crew Dragon. I wonder if the lunar flyby plan will be restored, just like how Gwynne saved FH from cancellation.

the entire "pull" of Commercial crew is that the folks who are providing it can sale excess seats...this is what makes it "special"

NASA contracts for the entire flight to the ISS, so you are mistaken that Boeing and SpaceX have rights to sell unused seats - which actually there never will be, since NASA intends to fill all four seats on every flight as part of their ISS expansion plans (i.e. ISS crew going from 6 to 7 to increase science output).

The reason Boeing and SpaceX put their own money into Commercial Crew is that they thought there would be customers who would want to fly on non-NASA flights, such as what Bob Bigelow wants to do with his Bigelow Stations. And that is what Shotwell is referencing.

if NASA takes four seats at least in the Boeing version there are places for 7.  Boeing will sale that excess capability  I dont know about SpaceX but Boeing will

to me that Tweet of her's is a joke, having some fun...there is nothing substantive in it

Neither vehicle is currently planned to fly in the 7-seat configuration to ISS. There will be at most one extra seat, the rest of the volume is occupied by cargo.