Author Topic: SpaceX Dragon 2 Updates and Discussion - Thread 3  (Read 815129 times)

Online DanClemmensen

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Re: SpaceX Dragon 2 Updates and Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #1720 on: 06/14/2023 09:48 pm »
1. A fifth Crew Dragon is being constructed as we speak. Not because it is needed to serve the CCP contract, but because SpaceX sees a booming private-spaceflight market coming.
2. Crew Dragon is already in the process of being certified for at least 10 flights each. Initial certification for 5 flights had nothing to do with the spacecraft's complexity, but everything with it landing in salt water. But the combined experience from Dragon 1 and Dragon 2 (both Crew and Cargo variants) has shown that flying Dragon 2 for more than 5 flights per vehicle (both cargo and crew variants) is not a problem.
Thanks. I believe you, but I have not seen this in the press. The most recent I've seen for the fifth capsule is:
    https://spacenews.com/spacex-to-launch-last-new-cargo-dragon-spacecraft/
The most recent I have seen for the five-flight limit is quite old:
    https://spaceflightnow.com/2019/08/02/spacex-to-begin-flights-under-new-cargo-resupply-contract-next-year/

You have comment on this before in the "Commercial Crew - Discussion" thread and got my reply.

<snip>
SpaceX may also be able to build out one more Crew Dragon, which extends the total missions to 25. If 5 missions is a hard limit, they will need this anyway to fly that last mission. They seem to have at least the skeleton of an additional Crew Dragon already available.
<snip>
FYI, SpaceX is building a fifth Crew Dragon capsule. Also that SpaceX plans to increase the number of missions for each capsule to about 10. From one of the Crew Dragon pre-launch press briefing by SpaceX's Sarah Walker.
Yes, but I am looking for a published source with attributions. My own comment was basically a re-wording of a sentence in the Spacenews article, which says they are thinking about building a fifth capsule, not that they have actually started building it. If you can easily find that press release, I would appreciate it. I will also try to find it myself now.

Offline whitelancer64

Re: SpaceX Dragon 2 Updates and Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #1721 on: 06/14/2023 10:11 pm »
1. A fifth Crew Dragon is being constructed as we speak. Not because it is needed to serve the CCP contract, but because SpaceX sees a booming private-spaceflight market coming.
2. Crew Dragon is already in the process of being certified for at least 10 flights each. Initial certification for 5 flights had nothing to do with the spacecraft's complexity, but everything with it landing in salt water. But the combined experience from Dragon 1 and Dragon 2 (both Crew and Cargo variants) has shown that flying Dragon 2 for more than 5 flights per vehicle (both cargo and crew variants) is not a problem.
Thanks. I believe you, but I have not seen this in the press. The most recent I've seen for the fifth capsule is:
    https://spacenews.com/spacex-to-launch-last-new-cargo-dragon-spacecraft/
The most recent I have seen for the five-flight limit is quite old:
    https://spaceflightnow.com/2019/08/02/spacex-to-begin-flights-under-new-cargo-resupply-contract-next-year/

You have comment on this before in the "Commercial Crew - Discussion" thread and got my reply.

<snip>
SpaceX may also be able to build out one more Crew Dragon, which extends the total missions to 25. If 5 missions is a hard limit, they will need this anyway to fly that last mission. They seem to have at least the skeleton of an additional Crew Dragon already available.
<snip>
FYI, SpaceX is building a fifth Crew Dragon capsule. Also that SpaceX plans to increase the number of missions for each capsule to about 10. From one of the Crew Dragon pre-launch press briefing by SpaceX's Sarah Walker.
Yes, but I am looking for a published source with attributions. My own comment was basically a re-wording of a sentence in the Spacenews article, which says they are thinking about building a fifth capsule, not that they have actually started building it. If you can easily find that press release, I would appreciate it. I will also try to find it myself now.

That a new fifth crew capsule was being built was explicitly stated by Sarah Walker (SpaceX Director of Mission Management) during a briefing for the CRS-26 mission.

https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1593699861295435776

https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1593700352796172288

https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1593703691076468737
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Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Dragon 2 Updates and Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #1722 on: 06/15/2023 03:21 pm »
https://twitter.com/adrenalinezonep/status/1669087564949762050

Quote
Former astronaut @Astro_Doug delves into what it was like to take his skills and services to another aerospace giant and help develop @SpaceX's own space program.

Watch the clip at



Full podcast episode:

« Last Edit: 06/15/2023 03:24 pm by FutureSpaceTourist »

Online yg1968

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Re: SpaceX Dragon 2 Updates and Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #1723 on: 06/16/2023 03:08 am »
Seven US Companies Collaborate with NASA to Advance Space Capabilities:
https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/seven-us-companies-collaborate-with-nasa-to-advance-space-capabilities

Quote from: NASA
SpaceX is collaborating with NASA on an integrated low Earth orbit architecture to provide a growing portfolio of technology with near-term Dragon evolution and concurrent Starship development. This architecture includes Starship as a transportation and in-space low-Earth orbit destination element supported by Super Heavy, Dragon, and Starlink, and constituent capabilities including crew and cargo transportation, communications, and operational and ground support.

Offline Oersted

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Re: SpaceX Dragon 2 Updates and Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #1724 on: 06/21/2023 07:24 pm »
I am still blown away by the fact that the Dragon 2 fleet now cumulatively has more time in space than the Space Shuttle.

Offline freddo411

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Re: SpaceX Dragon 2 Updates and Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #1725 on: 06/21/2023 07:33 pm »
I am still blown away by the fact that the Dragon 2 fleet now cumulatively has more time in space than the Space Shuttle.

Keep in mind that for crew flights, the dragons park at ISS and stay for 6 months.

Shuttles did not operate like that.   They were up for a week or 2 and then back down.

Online abaddon

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Re: SpaceX Dragon 2 Updates and Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #1726 on: 06/21/2023 07:50 pm »
I am still blown away by the fact that the Dragon 2 fleet now cumulatively has more time in space than the Space Shuttle.

Keep in mind that for crew flights, the dragons park at ISS and stay for 6 months.

Shuttles did not operate like that.   They were up for a week or 2 and then back down.
Sure, but also keep in mind that Dragon has done this in three years and it took Shuttle 30 years.

They are different craft with different strengths and weaknesses.  Shuttle couldn't serve as a regular crew rotation vehicle, and Dragon isn't going to be building any space stations any time soon...
« Last Edit: 06/21/2023 07:53 pm by abaddon »

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: SpaceX Dragon 2 Updates and Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #1727 on: 06/21/2023 08:47 pm »
I am still blown away by the fact that the Dragon 2 fleet now cumulatively has more time in space than the Space Shuttle.

Keep in mind that for crew flights, the dragons park at ISS and stay for 6 months.

Shuttles did not operate like that.   They were up for a week or 2 and then back down.
Sure, but also keep in mind that Dragon has done this in three years and it took Shuttle 30 years.

They are different craft with different strengths and weaknesses.  Shuttle couldn't serve as a regular crew rotation vehicle, and Dragon isn't going to be building any space stations any time soon...

That stat surprised me too.  The shuttle had 30 years and a lot of trips, but Dragon caught up quickly. 

Just as SpaceX is working to move on from the F9 to an even more reuseable system, they must be thinking about how to make human spaceflight cheaper per person. 

Even if it takes a decade, I think they will.
Starship, Vulcan and Ariane 6 have all reached orbit.  New Glenn, well we are waiting!

Offline Jim

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Re: SpaceX Dragon 2 Updates and Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #1728 on: 06/21/2023 08:53 pm »
I am still blown away by the fact that the Dragon 2 fleet now cumulatively has more time in space than the Space Shuttle.

Not a relevant comparison

Docked to a station in a quiescent state accumulating time and using station resources is meaningless.   Compare the amount of time both spacecraft were free flyers.
« Last Edit: 06/21/2023 08:54 pm by Jim »

Online clongton

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Re: SpaceX Dragon 2 Updates and Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #1729 on: 06/22/2023 03:48 pm »
I am still blown away by the fact that the Dragon 2 fleet now cumulatively has more time in space than the Space Shuttle.

Not a relevant comparison

Docked to a station in a quiescent state accumulating time and using station resources is meaningless.   Compare the amount of time both spacecraft were free flyers.

And/or the number of crewed missions.
Dragon is a really good spacecraft, but Shuttle's legacy (and Soyuz's) will stand for a long time. Dragon could eventually top them, but I don't think that will happen before Dragon/Falcon-9 is retired and replaced by Starship. Then it'll be Starship's task to top them.

Here are the relevant stats:
Shenzhou - 7 crewed missions
Dragon     - 10 crewed missions
Shuttle     - 135 crewed missions
Soyuz       - 147 crewed missions, and it's still flying them

Soyuz is the goal post to beat - and it's constantly moving
« Last Edit: 06/22/2023 04:04 pm by clongton »
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Online DanClemmensen

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Re: SpaceX Dragon 2 Updates and Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #1730 on: 06/22/2023 04:00 pm »
I am still blown away by the fact that the Dragon 2 fleet now cumulatively has more time in space than the Space Shuttle.

Not a relevant comparison

Docked to a station in a quiescent state accumulating time and using station resources is meaningless.   Compare the amount of time both spacecraft were free flyers.

And/or the number of crewed missions.
Yep. different architectures, different capabilities, so comparisons are not trivial "better" or "worse". The shuttle flew 130 times in a 30-year lifetime, a flight rate of 4.33/yr. The fleet of five Crew Dragons is intended to be able to fly 15 times each, for a total 75 flights, but is likely to retire after a 12-year lifetime with a flight rate of less than 4/yr.

Offline Hog

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Re: SpaceX Dragon 2 Updates and Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #1731 on: 06/22/2023 06:06 pm »
I am still blown away by the fact that the Dragon 2 fleet now cumulatively has more time in space than the Space Shuttle.

Not a relevant comparison

Docked to a station in a quiescent state accumulating time and using station resources is meaningless.   Compare the amount of time both spacecraft were free flyers.

And/or the number of crewed missions.
Yep. different architectures, different capabilities, so comparisons are not trivial "better" or "worse". The shuttle flew 130 times in a 30-year lifetime, a flight rate of 4.33/yr. The fleet of five Crew Dragons is intended to be able to fly 15 times each, for a total 75 flights, but is likely to retire after a 12-year lifetime with a flight rate of less than 4/yr.
Shuttle flew 135 times, over 30 years averaging 4.5 flights/year. unless I'm missing something.
Paul

Offline whitelancer64

Re: SpaceX Dragon 2 Updates and Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #1732 on: 06/29/2023 07:32 pm »
I am still blown away by the fact that the Dragon 2 fleet now cumulatively has more time in space than the Space Shuttle.

Not a relevant comparison

Docked to a station in a quiescent state accumulating time and using station resources is meaningless.   Compare the amount of time both spacecraft were free flyers.

And/or the number of crewed missions.
Dragon is a really good spacecraft, but Shuttle's legacy (and Soyuz's) will stand for a long time. Dragon could eventually top them, but I don't think that will happen before Dragon/Falcon-9 is retired and replaced by Starship. Then it'll be Starship's task to top them.

Here are the relevant stats:
Shenzhou - 7 crewed missions
Dragon     - 10 crewed missions
Shuttle     - 135 crewed missions
Soyuz       - 147 crewed missions, and it's still flying them

Soyuz is the goal post to beat - and it's constantly moving

Just a correction: Shenzhou is at 11 crew flights.
"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
"There are lies, damned lies, and launch schedules." - Larry J

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Dragon 2 Updates and Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #1733 on: 07/01/2023 11:52 am »
twitter.com/_rykllan/status/1675103035045867520

Quote
Dragon 2 fleet lifetime chart as of Jul 1, 2023

#SpaceX #Space

https://twitter.com/_rykllan/status/1675103038292328449

Quote
Dragon 2 fleet overview as of Jul 1, 2023

#SpaceX #Space

Offline Mariusuiram

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Re: SpaceX Dragon 2 Updates and Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #1734 on: 07/24/2023 12:22 am »
Maybe not officially an upgrade but I find what Vast is proposing as a really interesting expansion of Dragon. While we all want long term megastations, if dragon could serve as the backbone of cheaper temporary station architectures it would really change the way we are thinking about these

Online clongton

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Re: SpaceX Dragon 2 Updates and Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #1735 on: 07/24/2023 01:35 pm »
Maybe not officially an upgrade but I find what Vast is proposing as a really interesting expansion of Dragon. While we all want long term megastations, if dragon could serve as the backbone of cheaper temporary station architectures it would really change the way we are thinking about these

I must have missed it somehow.
What/Who is Vast and what is being proposed?
Chuck - DIRECT co-founder
I started my career on the Saturn-V F-1A engine

Online DanClemmensen

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Re: SpaceX Dragon 2 Updates and Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #1736 on: 07/24/2023 02:02 pm »
Maybe not officially an upgrade but I find what Vast is proposing as a really interesting expansion of Dragon. While we all want long term megastations, if dragon could serve as the backbone of cheaper temporary station architectures it would really change the way we are thinking about these

I must have missed it somehow.
What/Who is Vast and what is being proposed?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vast_(company)
Apparently, they want to use a fairly minimal Haven-1 station. It appears that the plain old Crew Dragon that transports the crew ends up providing the bulk of the crew support systems while on station.

Offline AnalogMan

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Re: SpaceX Dragon 2 Updates and Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #1737 on: 07/24/2023 03:24 pm »
Maybe not officially an upgrade but I find what Vast is proposing as a really interesting expansion of Dragon. While we all want long term megastations, if dragon could serve as the backbone of cheaper temporary station architectures it would really change the way we are thinking about these

I must have missed it somehow.
What/Who is Vast and what is being proposed?

Current forum thread:

Vast, a Startup for "human habitation, first in LEO, and then beyond"
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=55810.0

Offline John_Marshall

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Re: SpaceX Dragon 2 Updates and Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #1738 on: 08/15/2023 01:22 am »
Does anyone know what the current status of the fifth Crew Dragon capsule is? The last I knew was that it would be ready to fly next year. Thanks!

[zubenelgenubi: Post merged to this thread.]
« Last Edit: 08/15/2023 01:43 am by zubenelgenubi »

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Dragon 2 Updates and Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #1739 on: 08/23/2023 07:58 am »
Write-up of valve issues prompted by Dragon service module issue discussed at Crew-7 press conference:

https://twitter.com/stephenclark1/status/1694150394811760775

Quote
During his time at NASA, Bill Gerstenmaier identified valve quality as an industry-wide concern. He's now at SpaceX, which isn't immune to valve problems, but is able to quickly overcome them.

https://arstechnica.com/space/2023/08/valves-are-a-regular-concern-at-spacex-just-like-every-other-space-company/

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