SpaceX Dragon 2 Updates and Discussion - Thread 3

[Comga]

Might it be because we aren't sure whether the ISS will be there post-2024?

I thought plans were being laid to have ISS operational until 2030 at which point it starts handing off bits to the Axios commercial space station.

Well, Russia has not yet agreed to it. There's a whole thread about it.

Said thread and this thread not to mention the impacts of Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine.

(If one post that “there’s a thread” it helps to link to it.)

[su27k]

https://twitter.com/wapodavenport/status/1507491535507578884

As for the lagging chute on SpaceX's Dragon, Gerst says they did a rigorous review but it's just they way they inflate when you have 4 chutes deploying at once: "Even on this Axiom return we might have another lagging parachute. And if we do, it's just a function of the design."

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1507492007060676613

Gerstenmaier says they’ve looked at the lagging parachute issue seen on a  couple recent splashdowns and don’t see an obvious cause; “almost a feature of the design.” No safety issue, but will be collecting more video to get better looks at parachutes.

[jpo234]

Not sure whether this is actually news: SpaceX ending production of flagship crew capsule

"We are finishing our final (capsule), but we still are manufacturing components, because we'll be refurbishing," SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell told Reuters, confirming the plan to end Crew Dragon manufacturing.

[wannamoonbase]

Great article on Dragon production.  However, I can see more being produced in the future, as Gwynne mentioned.  I think there could be a lot of commercial flights that are not on the radar yet.

Also, it may take a long time before people are comfortable flying into space on Starship.  The lack of an abort system is going to be a concern for a long time.  Especially if there are launch failures during development.

I love the efficiency of SpaceX's Dragon 2 as crew and cargo, it was a great business decision and really pays off in so many dimensions of cost, reliability, ground crews, refurbishment etc.

[StarshipTrooper]

When Cortes reached the shores of the New World, he burned his ships.

[DanClemmensen]

March 28 (Reuters) - SpaceX has ended production of new Crew Dragon astronaut capsules, a company executive told Reuters, as Elon Musk's space transportation company heaps resources on its next-generation spaceship program.

This shows confidence in Starship bordering on arrogance. Four Crew Dragons at four crewed flights each is sixteen flights total. Seven have already launched, leaving nine, of which six must be reserved for CCP. That leaves only three new non-CCP flights, so SpaceX is counting on having a crew-qualified Starship by 2024 or so.

Questions:
      Will NASA allow capsule higher capsule reuse?  (Note: max of four is my guess, not an official number.)
      Will SpaceX use higher capsule reuse for non-NASA flights?
      Does SpaceX think NASA will shift from Crew Dragon to Starship when it is available?
      What are the chances of crew certification for Starship by 2024?

[kevinof]

I suspect this is not news to anyone in NASA and they are comfortable with it. I also suspect the 4 flight limit per capsule is no more and each will do a lot more flights and stretch their use out way past 2024.

March 28 (Reuters) - SpaceX has ended production of new Crew Dragon astronaut capsules, a company executive told Reuters, as Elon Musk's space transportation company heaps resources on its next-generation spaceship program.

This shows confidence in Starship bordering on arrogance. Four Crew Dragons at four crewed flights each is sixteen flights total. Seven have already launched, leaving nine, of which six must be reserved for CCP. That leaves only three new non-CCP flights, so SpaceX is counting on having a crew-qualified Starship by 2024 or so.

Questions:
      Will NASA allow capsule higher capsule reuse?  (Note: max of four is my guess, not an official number.)
      Will SpaceX use higher capsule reuse for non-NASA flights?
      Does SpaceX think NASA will shift from Crew Dragon to Starship when it is available?
      What are the chances of crew certification for Starship by 2024?

[rsdavis9]

March 28 (Reuters) - SpaceX has ended production of new Crew Dragon astronaut capsules, a company executive told Reuters, as Elon Musk's space transportation company heaps resources on its next-generation spaceship program.

This shows confidence in Starship bordering on arrogance. Four Crew Dragons at four crewed flights each is sixteen flights total. Seven have already launched, leaving nine, of which six must be reserved for CCP. That leaves only three new non-CCP flights, so SpaceX is counting on having a crew-qualified Starship by 2024 or so.

Questions:
      Will NASA allow capsule higher capsule reuse?  (Note: max of four is my guess, not an official number.)
      Will SpaceX use higher capsule reuse for non-NASA flights?
      Does SpaceX think NASA will shift from Crew Dragon to Starship when it is available?
      What are the chances of crew certification for Starship by 2024?

I see no reason to treat the capsule any differently to a booster.
12 is the current limit.
Some parts are changed more often.
I have heard that engines on the booster are not replaced very often?

So for dragon we have.
Basic pressure vessel
Engines
Lots of other stuff

Pretty similar to f9.

[Lee Jay]

March 28 (Reuters) - SpaceX has ended production of new Crew Dragon astronaut capsules, a company executive told Reuters, as Elon Musk's space transportation company heaps resources on its next-generation spaceship program.

This shows confidence in Starship bordering on arrogance. Four Crew Dragons at four crewed flights each is sixteen flights total. Seven have already launched, leaving nine, of which six must be reserved for CCP. That leaves only three new non-CCP flights, so SpaceX is counting on having a crew-qualified Starship by 2024 or so.

Questions:
      Will NASA allow capsule higher capsule reuse?  (Note: max of four is my guess, not an official number.)
      Will SpaceX use higher capsule reuse for non-NASA flights?
      Does SpaceX think NASA will shift from Crew Dragon to Starship when it is available?
      What are the chances of crew certification for Starship by 2024?

I see no reason to treat the capsule any differently to a booster.

1. Hypersonic re-entry
2. Extended time in vacuum
3. MMOD damage from extended time in space
4. Hypergolic propellants
5. ECLSS

[ajmarco]

March 28 (Reuters) - SpaceX has ended production of new Crew Dragon astronaut capsules, a company executive told Reuters, as Elon Musk's space transportation company heaps resources on its next-generation spaceship program.

This shows confidence in Starship bordering on arrogance. Four Crew Dragons at four crewed flights each is sixteen flights total. Seven have already launched, leaving nine, of which six must be reserved for CCP. That leaves only three new non-CCP flights, so SpaceX is counting on having a crew-qualified Starship by 2024 or so.

Bold is mine. The quote from Gwynne is that they are wrapping up final production. There is no quote from anyone at SpaceX in that article mentioning only Four Crew Dragon Capsules. I would question what the source of that is. If you add even one more capsule into that mix it can drastically change the timeline.

[yg1968]

EXCLUSIVE SpaceX ending production of flagship crew capsule

https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/science/exclusive-spacex-ending-production-flagship-crew-capsule-executive-2022-03-28/?utm_source=reddit.com

I don't think that you are supposed to copy and past the entire article, only a few paragraphs from it.

In any event, here is the related tweet:

https://twitter.com/joroulette/status/1508438071578136585

[DanClemmensen]

March 28 (Reuters) - SpaceX has ended production of new Crew Dragon astronaut capsules, a company executive told Reuters, as Elon Musk's space transportation company heaps resources on its next-generation spaceship program.

This shows confidence in Starship bordering on arrogance. Four Crew Dragons at four crewed flights each is sixteen flights total. Seven have already launched, leaving nine, of which six must be reserved for CCP. That leaves only three new non-CCP flights, so SpaceX is counting on having a crew-qualified Starship by 2024 or so.

Bold is mine. The quote from Gwynne is that they are wrapping up final production. There is no quote from anyone at SpaceX in that article mentioning only Four Crew Dragon Capsules. I would question what the source of that is. If you add even one more capsule into that mix it can drastically change the timeline.

I think we know from other sources that there are three operational Crew Dragons and one under construction. I assumed that "wrapping up" implied no additional new construction starts.  (My wild guess of a max reuse of four is much more questionable.)
     https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Dragon_2

[nacnud]

It looks like it takes 5 months or less to refly a Crew Dragon so there only needs to be 2 in service to support ISS missions. The other 2 could support 4, maybe more, short duration missions a year.

There will also be 3 Cargo Dragons.

This seems plenty for the known upcoming flights. Is it worth delaying Starship to build more Dragons? I don't know

[jimvela]

They are continuing Dragon subassembly component production. 

I wonder how many of the Dragon2 systems will be directly usable by StarShip as modules. 

At least for outfitting the initial prototypes, why not use what you have in production and then evolve that as needed when you scale up or learn things from early testing.

[DanClemmensen]

It looks like it takes 5 months or less to refly a Crew Dragon so there only needs to be 2 in service to support ISS missions. The other 2 could support 4, maybe more, short duration missions a year.

There will also be 3 Cargo Dragons.

This seems plenty for the known upcoming flights. Is it worth delaying Starship to build more Dragons? I don't know

Launch cadence is not a problem: four capsules would support eight flights a year. The problem is the reuse count: How old can a capsule be and still be acceptable to NASA and/or to other customers? My wild guess was a reuse count of four. At one point, SpaceX mentioned that old Crew Dragons could be repurposed as Cargo Dragons.

[kevinof]

It looks like it takes 5 months or less to refly a Crew Dragon so there only needs to be 2 in service to support ISS missions. The other 2 could support 4, maybe more, short duration missions a year.

There will also be 3 Cargo Dragons.

This seems plenty for the known upcoming flights. Is it worth delaying Starship to build more Dragons? I don't know

Launch cadence is not a problem: four capsules would support eight flights a year. The problem is the reuse count: How old can a capsule be and still be acceptable to NASA and/or to other customers? My wild guess was a reuse count of four. At one point, SpaceX mentioned that old Crew Dragons could be repurposed as Cargo Dragons.

Forget the repurposed crew vehicles - that was dismissed a long time ago and will not happen. As for the 4 re-uses that was decided by NASA and SpaceX long before the first flight when they had very little data on the refurb and wear and tear.

[alugobi]

The problem is the reuse count

It appears that it's not a problem for SX and NASA, else they wouldn't be announcing this.

[DanClemmensen]

It looks like it takes 5 months or less to refly a Crew Dragon so there only needs to be 2 in service to support ISS missions. The other 2 could support 4, maybe more, short duration missions a year.

There will also be 3 Cargo Dragons.

This seems plenty for the known upcoming flights. Is it worth delaying Starship to build more Dragons? I don't know

Launch cadence is not a problem: four capsules would support eight flights a year. The problem is the reuse count: How old can a capsule be and still be acceptable to NASA and/or to other customers? My wild guess was a reuse count of four. At one point, SpaceX mentioned that old Crew Dragons could be repurposed as Cargo Dragons.

Forget the repurposed crew vehicles - that was dismissed a long time ago and will not happen. As for the 4 re-uses that was decided by NASA and SpaceX long before the first flight when they had very little data on the refurb and wear and tear.

That's reassuring, but I would like to see a NASA/SpaceX announcement on reuse.

Until Starliner is operational, an average of one Crew Dragon will be sitting at ISS for CCP. This pretty much uses up two spacecraft, allowing the other two to do about two tourist flights per year apiece. Once Starliner starts flying CCP, SpaceX can add an additional capsule to the tourist flights, for a total of one CCP and six tourist flights per year. SpaceX will still need to build a trunk for each flight.

[cohberg]

Will NASA allow capsule higher capsule reuse?  Note: max of four is my guess, not an official number.

for the 4 re-uses that was decided by NASA and SpaceX

The SpaceX quoted / official number was actually up to 5 reuses.

We've also seen SpaceX pull older boosters out of storage and use them so I'm sure C205 is being stored somewhere safe. This would extend Dragon's fleet life to 20+ future flights without exceeding 5 flights per airframe.

[abaddon]

IIRC Starliner will only have two capsules and DreamChaser was going to only have one(?).  Not sure why Dragon would be any different, four capsules is plenty.