There's going to be more than just 4 Crew Dragon capsules built.
Quote from: oldAtlas_Eguy on 02/16/2022 09:53 pmQuote from: DreamyPickle on 02/16/2022 08:51 amWikipedia has a manifest table for crewed flights and with the Polaris flights it's now up to 17 (excluding all uncrewed).Unless some of those flights are cancelled this puts Dragon on track to exceed the total of 15 crewed flights of Apollo and this will make it the most flown US crew capsule.Shuttle and Soyuz are very far away though.Had not thought about this before. But I projected out the yearly possible crewd D2 flights and I got the possibility that in 2025 that the total would cross >20. Note here that if everything goes well for Starliner in this year. That Starliner would have only ~3 flights (1-2023,1-2024,1-2025).Even if NASA decides to accelerate the usage of Starliner to occasionally use 2 Starliner fligths to ISS in a year. That would not impact crewed D2 flights by as much as most would believe. Such that at most a loss of 1 of 3 flights but may be as low as a loss of only 1 of 5 flights in a year.The non ISS crewed D2 flights in a year will be some combination of Axiom and Isaacman sponsored organized flights. Some years 2 and others could be as high as 4. If other uses besides these 3 sources for flights occur such as usage as an alternate for SLS/Orion by loading up and off crew in LEO of a Starship that transport them back and forth to the Moon could occur to. Eventually though D2 will be overcome by Starship. It is more so a mater of when. But before then D2 will set new records possibly starting this year 2022 with the highest altitude/distance from Earth non-Apollo flight. First private citizen EVA. We have hit another inflection point. One in which that in a few years that private crews to space in one year will outnumber government ones.There are currently 3 active Crew Dragons and one under construction. If NASA permits 5 crewed flights before retiring a capsule, that's only 20 total. The active capsules have flown a total of 5, so 15 flights remain. It appears that SpaceX must either build at least one more capsule or NASA must permit more crewed flights per capsule. The last time I looked at this I assumed Starliner would start operational flights in 2022 and I did not factor in many non-CCP flights. so I thought SpaceX would be able to shift the customers to Starship before using up the remaining Crew Dragon flights. I no longer think this is true.
Quote from: DreamyPickle on 02/16/2022 08:51 amWikipedia has a manifest table for crewed flights and with the Polaris flights it's now up to 17 (excluding all uncrewed).Unless some of those flights are cancelled this puts Dragon on track to exceed the total of 15 crewed flights of Apollo and this will make it the most flown US crew capsule.Shuttle and Soyuz are very far away though.Had not thought about this before. But I projected out the yearly possible crewd D2 flights and I got the possibility that in 2025 that the total would cross >20. Note here that if everything goes well for Starliner in this year. That Starliner would have only ~3 flights (1-2023,1-2024,1-2025).Even if NASA decides to accelerate the usage of Starliner to occasionally use 2 Starliner fligths to ISS in a year. That would not impact crewed D2 flights by as much as most would believe. Such that at most a loss of 1 of 3 flights but may be as low as a loss of only 1 of 5 flights in a year.The non ISS crewed D2 flights in a year will be some combination of Axiom and Isaacman sponsored organized flights. Some years 2 and others could be as high as 4. If other uses besides these 3 sources for flights occur such as usage as an alternate for SLS/Orion by loading up and off crew in LEO of a Starship that transport them back and forth to the Moon could occur to. Eventually though D2 will be overcome by Starship. It is more so a mater of when. But before then D2 will set new records possibly starting this year 2022 with the highest altitude/distance from Earth non-Apollo flight. First private citizen EVA. We have hit another inflection point. One in which that in a few years that private crews to space in one year will outnumber government ones.
Wikipedia has a manifest table for crewed flights and with the Polaris flights it's now up to 17 (excluding all uncrewed).Unless some of those flights are cancelled this puts Dragon on track to exceed the total of 15 crewed flights of Apollo and this will make it the most flown US crew capsule.Shuttle and Soyuz are very far away though.
Quote from: DanClemmensen on 02/16/2022 11:19 pmQuote from: oldAtlas_Eguy on 02/16/2022 09:53 pmQuote from: DreamyPickle on 02/16/2022 08:51 amWikipedia has a manifest table for crewed flights and with the Polaris flights it's now up to 17 (excluding all uncrewed).Unless some of those flights are cancelled this puts Dragon on track to exceed the total of 15 crewed flights of Apollo and this will make it the most flown US crew capsule.Shuttle and Soyuz are very far away though.Had not thought about this before. But I projected out the yearly possible crewd D2 flights and I got the possibility that in 2025 that the total would cross >20. Note here that if everything goes well for Starliner in this year. That Starliner would have only ~3 flights (1-2023,1-2024,1-2025).Even if NASA decides to accelerate the usage of Starliner to occasionally use 2 Starliner fligths to ISS in a year. That would not impact crewed D2 flights by as much as most would believe. Such that at most a loss of 1 of 3 flights but may be as low as a loss of only 1 of 5 flights in a year.The non ISS crewed D2 flights in a year will be some combination of Axiom and Isaacman sponsored organized flights. Some years 2 and others could be as high as 4. If other uses besides these 3 sources for flights occur such as usage as an alternate for SLS/Orion by loading up and off crew in LEO of a Starship that transport them back and forth to the Moon could occur to. Eventually though D2 will be overcome by Starship. It is more so a mater of when. But before then D2 will set new records possibly starting this year 2022 with the highest altitude/distance from Earth non-Apollo flight. First private citizen EVA. We have hit another inflection point. One in which that in a few years that private crews to space in one year will outnumber government ones.There are currently 3 active Crew Dragons and one under construction. If NASA permits 5 crewed flights before retiring a capsule, that's only 20 total. The active capsules have flown a total of 5, so 15 flights remain. It appears that SpaceX must either build at least one more capsule or NASA must permit more crewed flights per capsule. The last time I looked at this I assumed Starliner would start operational flights in 2022 and I did not factor in many non-CCP flights. so I thought SpaceX would be able to shift the customers to Starship before using up the remaining Crew Dragon flights. I no longer think this is true.Flying Dragon's five times was a goal not an absolute number. I think like Falcon's they continue re-fly Dragon's until they find a reason not to.
Quote from: striver on 02/18/2022 10:30 amThe oldest was on 2nd flight and Crew-4 should be on 4th.Booster 1062 launched Inspiration4 on its third mission.
The oldest was on 2nd flight and Crew-4 should be on 4th.
The recent media kerfuffle and speculation that US astronaut Mark Vande Hei might be "left behind" on ISS by the Russians (he's currently scheduled to return in a Soyuz) got me to wondering; how hard would it be to give Dragon 2 (crew) an emergency capacity to return from ISS with 5 aboard? No matter the cause (could be politics, could be medical, could be a life support failure on ISS, could be gremlins, etc) IMHO it's possible that circumstances might someday conspire to make it useful to have a 5-person deorbit capacity. So, how difficult would it be? I know Crew Dragon was originally planned to have a 7 person capacity, but it's currently rated for 4 crew, with seating for 4 crew. My guess is that the roadblocks to this might be life support capacity, and the means to secure the 5th passenger for reentry and splashdown. (hypothetically, place them prone behind the seats for reentry, cushioned by some padding material from ISS, and secured with netting attached to hardpoints.)If the limitation is life support, this is probably too complex a "fix" to make. If, on the other hand, the only roadblock would be a lack of tie-down hardpoints in the area the 5th person would be, maybe it's worth considering. So, I have two questions; #1, would it be possible (in an emergency) for a Dragon 2 (crew) that's already at ISS to carry a 5th person. #2, if not, is there a way to give it that emergency capability easily, quickly, and cheaply via a minor design change?
I think there is another thread discussing this but if Dragon supports 4 crew for 5 days plus a safety margin, it should be able to support 5 crew for a quick deorbit and splashdown in an emergency/urgent situation.
ECLSS consumables ... last for 20 person-days
If the atmosphere is even more contaminated, it can be vented to near-vacuum and replaced with clean nitrox using both cabin repress valve sets.
Quote from: kevinof on 03/13/2022 07:34 amI think there is another thread discussing this but if Dragon supports 4 crew for 5 days plus a safety margin, it should be able to support 5 crew for a quick deorbit and splashdown in an emergency/urgent situation.To add some context and a citation to thisQuote from: SpaceX ECLSS PaperECLSS consumables ... last for 20 person-days4 *{days it takes to rendezvous with 4x crew} + 5 * {days it takes to splash down with 5x crew} <= 20 person-days. So even with the normal ~2 day rendezvous / ~2 day splashdown, there is margin with the ECLSS consumables. For Crew-3 specifically they docked pretty quickly and only used ~3.6 person days, leaving them with a healthy ~3.6 days (~14.3 person days) to get back.But that's not the only issue with the ECLSS.If Mark is un-suited, you actually loose some fire fighting modes for the entire cabin which would affect all crew members (not just Mark). To fight a fire / decontaminate the cabin after a fire, procedure is to depressurize the cable then repressurize it with clean nitrox.Quote from: SpaceX ECLSS PaperIf the atmosphere is even more contaminated, it can be vented to near-vacuum and replaced with clean nitrox using both cabin repress valve sets.So now, at minimum, you need a SpaceX IVA suit to be sent up with Crew-4 and the 1x seat guts for Mark (with all the plumbing and valving) to support depress / fire fighting modes. Technically, you could use the buddy breath port on one of the chairs instead of replumbing everything, but then you have just lost redundancy for both Mark and that individual.The physicals seating situation is also something to consider as I see many people suggesting that he just lash himself to the floor.Dragon has at least 3 positions for seat orientation (launch / reentry, water landing (due to how dragon hangs from the parachute / splashes down), entry/exit). If the extra seat is fixed, either due to time or physical constraints (clearance in the cargo / powered locker area between the floor and the bottom of the 4x seats), then the orientation would be suboptimal / dangerous for either taking Gs during rentry or a hard splashdown due to chute(s) not inflating.TLDR:Mark isn't the only one taking the risks, the entire capsule is compromised.Need a suit at minimum. Need ECLSS plumbing. Bonus if there is a seat / crash cushion with ECLSS plumbing. Extra bonus if they can figure out the geometry to make it actuate to the >2 critical positions (water / reentry) as well.
There was at least 1 Shuttle re-entry with an astronaut seated un-restrained on the floor at the back of the upper deck, due to a last minute decision by the person concerned.They would not have had access to the suit air supply so any depressurisation would have been a big issue.So this has been done. I imagine there was some fallout for the person concerned, though as this was totally unplanned!
tweet
Nice graphic capturing Dragon 2 missions, including reusehttps://twitter.com/spacenosey/status/1413902783565242378
Quote from: ZachS09 on 03/25/2022 03:08 pm tweet Tweet points to: https://www.nasa.gov/feature/nasa-orders-additional-cargo-flights-to-space-stationInteresting. NASA contracted for up to six new Cargo Dragon flights and up six new Cygnus flights, but the flights are "as needed". I think this means they can use Cargo Dragon if Cygnus cannot fly due to unavailability of Antares.
Quote from: FutureSpaceTourist on 07/10/2021 04:53 pmNice graphic capturing Dragon 2 missions, including reuse--Graphic showing four active Dragon 2's --Anyone seen an update of this graphic or similar ones?I couldn’t find any.Wonder if SpaceX will build more, and how many, with the newly contracted CRS 2, Crew, Polaris and Axiom flights.
Nice graphic capturing Dragon 2 missions, including reuse--Graphic showing four active Dragon 2's --
Quote from: DanClemmensen on 03/25/2022 03:32 pmQuote from: ZachS09 on 03/25/2022 03:08 pm tweet Tweet points to: https://www.nasa.gov/feature/nasa-orders-additional-cargo-flights-to-space-stationInteresting. NASA contracted for up to six new Cargo Dragon flights and up six new Cygnus flights, but the flights are "as needed". I think this means they can use Cargo Dragon if Cygnus cannot fly due to unavailability of Antares.Might it be because we aren't sure whether the ISS will be there post-2024?
Quote from: JayWee on 03/25/2022 05:10 pmMight it be because we aren't sure whether the ISS will be there post-2024?I thought plans were being laid to have ISS operational until 2030 at which point it starts handing off bits to the Axios commercial space station.
Might it be because we aren't sure whether the ISS will be there post-2024?
