SpaceX F9 : Iridium NEXT Flight 8 : Jan. 11, 2019 : Vandenberg - DISCUSSION

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/iridiumboss/status/1073567273657475073

Preparations continue for our final (historic!) launch 8 on January 7th.  Final 2 (of 10) sats just left the factory (we track them by Iridium IoT) for the base; 6 of 10 are already mated.  Everything needed is there - just need to put it all together for a launch in 24 days!

[gongora]

https://twitter.com/IridiumComm/status/1075075929150509057

#Iridium8 Update: We're at T-minus 20 days to our final #IridiumNEXT launch and happy to share that all 10 satellites have been mated to their dispenser and are being prepped for fueling! 🛰️ ⛽  😃

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Slip to Jan 10th? (No! See below)

https://twitter.com/iridiumboss/status/1078275804507918338

Our 46th Iridium Block 1 reentry occurred over Antarctica yesterday at 12:17 UTC (+/- 1 minute). SV035 was launched 9/27/97 from VAFB on a Delta II.  SV090 should be coming down next - in about 40 days. However, UP next will be final 10 new IridiumNEXT sats in 14 days! #Flarewell

Edit to add:

Panic over, counting issue ... so all still on track 

https://twitter.com/iridiumboss/status/1078283225259261952

Oops.  I meant 11 days.  It's coming faster than I thought!  (and it means I can't count...)

[ChrisGebhardt]

NET Jan 6:

 The United Launch Alliance Delta IV Heavy carrying the NROL-71 mission will launch no earlier than Sunday, Jan. 6, 2019

https://twitter.com/ulalaunch/status/1078686393755467777

Seeking confirmation on what effect this might have on Iridium 8, currently scheduled fo NET 7 January.

[ChrisGebhardt]

Worth noting, too, that "not hearing anything about this" is not the same "We're still good to go on 7 January."  Let's see how this plays out.

Matt Desch
@IridiumBoss
"Not hearing anything about this but checking.  Meanwhile, our 10 satellites are mated, fueled, and just completing encapsulation in the fairing..."

https://twitter.com/IridiumBoss/status/1078703412433301505

[zubenelgenubi]

Three questions; I'm sure they're already being worked:

DoD is funded for FY2019 and is not "closed down" due to the partial federal government furlough.  The processing and launch facilities are on a USAFB.

Q1: Therefore, the furlough should not delay or prevent this launch?

(Ditto relevance for NROL-71 launch.)

Q2: Will any of the activities for the Iridium Next launch interfere with the launch activities for NROL-71?  That includes the Falcon 9 Static Fire, which should be happening soon-ish.

Q3: If there are any issues, like range re-sets or feuled LV proximity to a several $billion NSS payload; then would not the easiest solution be to let the NROL-71 launch date slip the appropriate number of days AFTER the Iridium Next launch?

Cross-post; re: NROL-71:

<snip>
Anyways, I just don't see this launching before F9, unless F9 slips quite a few days.

Edit: Thanks, Chris G!

[ChrisGebhardt]

Three questions; I'm sure they're already being worked:

DoD is funded for FY2019 and is not "closed down" due to the partial federal government furlough.  The processing and launch facilities are on a USAFB.

Q1: Therefore, the furlough should not delay or prevent this launch?

(Ditto relevance for NROL-71 launch.)

Q2: Will any of the activities for the Iridium Next launch interfere with the launch activities for NROL-71?  That includes the Falcon 9 Static Fire, which should be happening soon-ish.

Q3: If there are any issues, like range re-sets or feuled LV proximity to a several $billion NSS payload; then would not the easiest solution be to let the NROL-71 launch date slip the appropriate number of days AFTER the Iridium Next launch?

Cross-post; re: NROL-71:

<snip>
Anyways, I just don't see this launching before F9, unless F9 slips quite a few days.

1. As with SpaceX GPS III launch last week, the partial government shutdown is not affected US launches from a Range support perspective.
2. No.  As with Falcon 9 SSO-A launch from Vandy in early December, which occurred when NROL-71 was already mated to the Delta IV Heavy, Falcon 9 launches themselves do not affect NROL-71 and NRO/ULA cannot demand that SpaceX not launch because their payload/vehicle is on a neighboring pad.
3. No, that is not the simplest solution because there are no issues with a fueled Falcon 9 launching another mission while NROL-71 is on the pad.  And it also does not take into account the capital that SpaceX and Iridium have already laid out and would likely stand to lose if NRO/ULA tried to claim priority for a mission that's slipped multiple times in the last 6 weeks and holds no guarantee of being ready or, if ready, launching on 6 January.

[deruch]

Three questions; I'm sure they're already being worked:

DoD is funded for FY2019 and is not "closed down" due to the partial federal government furlough.  The processing and launch facilities are on a USAFB.

Q1: Therefore, the furlough should not delay or prevent this launch?

Correct, DOD/Range support shouldn't be affected. 

The Department of Transportation, which includes the FAA, IS impacted.  However, the FAA's commercial space launch oversight is on the department/agency's list of exempt activities (PDF) so there won't be any issues there.  Besides which, SpaceX already has their launch license for this mission, so it's not clear whether this would have been a problem even if only the FAA's "day of launch" activities were exempted.

Likewise, since SpaceX presumably already has their FCC spectrum grants for this mission any shutdown impacts to the FCC should be irrelevant. 

[gongora]

https://twitter.com/IridiumBoss/status/1079807733287796736

#Iridium8 Update:  SpaceX has informed us that they need an extra day to prep for Iridium8, moving us to our backup date.  We are now targeting Jan 8th at 7:48 AM PT (15:48 UTC) with a new backup of Jan 9th, out of VAFB. #IridiumNEXT

[Tomness]

https://twitter.com/IridiumBoss/status/1079807733287796736

#Iridium8 Update:  SpaceX has informed us that they need an extra day to prep for Iridium8, moving us to our backup date.  We are now targeting Jan 8th at 7:48 AM PT (15:48 UTC) with a new backup of Jan 9th, out of VAFB. #IridiumNEXT

Static Fire test is NET Friday.

Its all lining up. lets hope for a good static fire, good quick review. lights this candle!

[whitelancer64]

Whoever designed this patch needs a pay raise and a bonus.

That's beautiful and creative!!

https://twitter.com/iridiumcomm/status/1081230964121104384

[zubenelgenubi]

Puzzle pieces in play--apologies for the text-Tweet wall.  However, I need them to show how I reach my conclusions.  I also have 2 questions, marked with Q.:

Falcon 9 static fire DID occur on Sunday, January 6.  New, delayed launch date is TBD/TBA.  Cross-post:

Iridium:

"I am reaching out to let you know SpaceX successfully completed the static fire test early this morning for the eighth and final Iridium NEXT launch.  This means that the launch is no longer scheduled for January 8th. We are working with SpaceX and Vandenberg Air Force Base to determine the next best launch opportunity and will provide another update as soon as any new information is made available. "

However, 2nd cross-post:

Hopefully not much of a slip as JRTI has departed port:

https://twitter.com/spacexfleet/status/1082021129047470080

Droneship Departure! Just Read The Instructions is being towed out of LA ahead of the upcoming Iridium 8 mission! The droneship is heading 244km downrange to the blue marker. Map via @Raul74Cz

Q1) If observers don't see/note JRTI returning to port, that would imply a delay of short duration?

Meanwhile, at SLC-6; 3rd cross-post:

Tanking test confirmed

Tanking test today, per L2.

Confirmed:

https://twitter.com/SpacecoastPix/status/1080890968289624064

And; 4th cross-post, with an apparent launch date of the 11th, and back-up launch dates:

Confirmed:
https://twitter.com/SpacecoastPix/status/1080890968289624064

Any update on how the tanking test went (or if it happened at all)?

EDIT: Ok, I'm self-answering since I just found this tweet:


https://twitter.com/MXSOCAL/status/1081258057869316096

However in the 5th cross-post:

ULA:

ULA Delta IV Heavy NROL-71 Launch Date Under Review

(Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif. Jan. 5, 2019) – The United Launch Alliance Delta IV Heavy carrying the NROL-71 mission launch date is under review. A new launch date and time will be provided pending the results of additional testing.

“We continue to remedy the technical issues that caused the last scrub of the Delta IV Heavy, and are working with our partners, the National Reconnaissance Office and the U.S. Air Force, to ensure that we fly when it is safe to do so,” said Gary Wentz, vice president of Government and Commercial programs, “we understand that this is a high-priority mission for the nation’s warfighters and we take our commitment to safety and mission assurance seriously.”

Which suggests; 6th cross-post ( ugordan's play-on-words):

That update suggests the recent tanking test didn't really flush out all the gremlins?

Which leads to the 7th cross-post:

https://twitter.com/spcplcyonline/status/1082039666717745153

In response to my question about the launch date for #NROL71, ULA said "Hope to have a new date by this week. " So looks like it's going to be a while...

"This week" is January 6-12, which includes the first two potential dates earlier in this post.

My conclusions:
If there were no serious issues revealed with the Falcon 9 Static Fire, then the Iridium launch should occur, at most, a few days after January 8--later this week.

NROL-71 will occur NET the Western Range re-set time after the Falcon 9 flies.
Q2) How long is WR re-set now, after last year's upgrades?

As there are apparently still technical issues to work out on the DIV-H, launch could be "a while."  If they require validation with another WDR, it could be a longer while.

EDIT: I did miss that information, gongora!  Thank you!
(I hope the NROL-71 delay is not so long as to bump up against the RCM Radarsat constellation launch on Falcon 9 in the week of February 18!)

[gongora]

(I hope the NROL-71 delay is not so long as to bump up against the RCM Radarsat constellation launch on Falcon 9 in the week of February 18!)

Off-topic for this thread, but I wouldn't worry about NROL-71 conflicting with RCM, I expect it (RCM) will be delayed.  See that thread for the reason if you missed it.

[Zed_Noir]

....
My conclusions:
If there were no serious issues revealed with the Falcon 9 Static Fire, then the Iridium launch should occur, at most, a few days after January 8--later this week.
....

cross post from the "Delta IV-H - NROL-71 - NET January 11, 2019" thread to add to the confusion.

Launch Alert
9:21 PM

The next announced Vandenberg AFB rocket launch is a Falcon 9 on the morning of January 8. The Falcon is scheduled to lift off from the south base at 07:48 PST and carry Iridium NEXT satellites 66-75 into orbit.

The Delta IV Heavy launch has been delayed indefinitely. There is no new launch date.

[emphasis Bold mine, Tony]

[gongora]

The DIV-H launch really has nothing to do with this one.

[mn]

The DIV-H launch really has nothing to do with this one.

I suspect he's referring to this part (my bold) of the quote:

Launch Alert
9:21 PM

The next announced Vandenberg AFB rocket launch is a Falcon 9 on the morning of January 8. The Falcon is scheduled to lift off from the south base at 07:48 PST and carry Iridium NEXT satellites 66-75 into orbit.
...

I'm not clear on who this alert is from, but they either have new info, or old info

[guckyfan]

The DIV-H launch really has nothing to do with this one.

As long as ULA keeps the Delta IV Heavy on the pad they block RTLS for SpaceX.

[envy887]

The DIV-H launch really has nothing to do with this one.

As long as ULA keeps the Delta IV Heavy on the pad they block RTLS for SpaceX.

Matt Desch said they were too heavy for RTLS, so that is still irrelevant to this mission.

[Tomness]

SpaceX CRS-16 Dragon C112.2 Re-entry Area for Thursday 10 Jan in window between 14:50-15:20 UTC.
Landing approx.252km southeast of the Port of LA, nearby planned Iridium-8 droneship position.
Alternative landing Sunday 13 Jan 13:50-14:20 UTC.

Interesting maybe they don't won't Dragon to come down on the droneship & fairing recovery?

[catdlr]

The next announced Vandenberg AFB rocket launch is a Falcon 9 on the morning of January 8. The Falcon is scheduled to lift off from the south base at 07:48 PST and carry Iridium NEXT satellites 66-75 into orbit.
...

I'm not clear on who this alert is from, but they either have new info, or old info

The Launch Alert comes from this source (via email to subscribers)

Brian Webb
[email protected]
www.spacearchive.info

He provides launch updates for VAFB that I post on this NSF thread:

Vandenberg Air Force Base - Missile Test notices

Tony