Poll

Given the weather, do you think the launch will happen today?

Yes
47 (35.3%)
No
86 (64.7%)

Total Members Voted: 133

Voting closed: 05/28/2020 07:21 pm


Author Topic: SpaceX Falcon 9 / Dragon 2 : SpX-DM2 : May 27, 2020 : DISCUSSION  (Read 366465 times)

Offline Apollo-phill

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Pre-launch report featured on UK main commercial news programme - ITN News At Ten (22:00 hrs) - tonight 26 May 2020.

A few screen captures attached.


Phill
UK

Offline ulm_atms

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Will F9 do a boostback burn during its descent to the drone ship?

Only an entry burn, and then a landing burn. Boostback is only necessary when returning to launch site.

There are occasionally short "boostback burns" (more like aiming burns) after staging if the barge is not in the optimal place for the ballistic impact point. It depends on performance margin and/or placement of barge to to weather issues.

That’s what I meant by. I should’ve said “partial boostback”.

I asked that question because I saw that event on the Crew Dragon ascent artwork and looked back at the Iridium-NEXT F5 flight where B1041 did a single-engine boostback burn to land in a small zone in the Pacific a little bit over 500 km downrange.

My understanding is that SpaceX does as much partial boostback as margins allow to keep from having to have the drone ship any further out then it needs to be.  If they have enough margin to get back to Florida...RTLS.

Offline Khadgars

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Really excited for this historic mission, Gods speed to SpaceX and NASA!
Evil triumphs when good men do nothing - Thomas Jefferson

Offline wannamoonbase

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Will F9 do a boostback burn during its descent to the drone ship?

Only an entry burn, and then a landing burn. Boostback is only necessary when returning to launch site.

There are occasionally short "boostback burns" (more like aiming burns) after staging if the barge is not in the optimal place for the ballistic impact point. It depends on performance margin and/or placement of barge to to weather issues.

That’s what I meant by. I should’ve said “partial boostback”.

I asked that question because I saw that event on the Crew Dragon ascent artwork and looked back at the Iridium-NEXT F5 flight where B1041 did a single-engine boostback burn to land in a small zone in the Pacific a little bit over 500 km downrange.

My understanding is that SpaceX does as much partial boostback as margins allow to keep from having to have the drone ship any further out then it needs to be.  If they have enough margin to get back to Florida...RTLS.

Was wondering the same thing.  If there is enough fuel, why not shorten the ASDS trip, that thing is so slow compared to a booster in flight.

Edit: Can’t wait for this one.  It’s exciting to finally be ready for this new age of human spaceflight.  Best wishes on day 1.
« Last Edit: 05/26/2020 11:11 pm by wannamoonbase »
Starship, Vulcan and Ariane 6 have all reached orbit.  New Glenn, well we are waiting!

Offline rdale

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Has anyone heard ground to capsule comms? I saw on a scanner list that no conventional UHF channels were licensed so I'm wondering if they were missed, or if it's digital audio through all phases of launch.

Offline spacenut

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Where is the landing zone for the booster, off the coast of S. Carolina?

Bad weather front off the southeast coastal US right now. 

Offline nicp

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I'm really looking forward to this, love SpaceX etc...
But I don't think I could work for them at a time like this, I keep remembering Shepard's Prayer.
The pressure must be _really_ tough. Good luck all.
For Vectron!

Offline rdale

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Where is the landing zone for the booster, off the coast of S. Carolina?

Bad weather front off the southeast coastal US right now.

Yes off SC and yes there is some potential weather. Right now it doesn’t look bad enough to prohibit launch.

Scroll back to my earlier posts for a webcam and buoy in the area.

Offline joek

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I'm really looking forward to this, love SpaceX etc...
But I don't think I could work for them at a time like this, I keep remembering Shepard's Prayer.
The pressure must be _really_ tough. Good luck all.

Think everyone with a modicum of conscientiousness, no matter their job, hopes and prays for the same.  Not to minimize the pressure they are under, but it pales in comparison to the pressure EMT's, ER staff, Fire, Police and others are under who face those pressures every day, and who put their and others' lives on the line every day.  And let us not forget (this day after Memorial Day in the US), those who did put their lives on the line and paid the ultimate sacrifice.

Offline rdale

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I’m still good with the overall weather pattern for tomorrow... Moisture continues to be pulled offshore towards the low pressure system that right now is near KSC and moving north. It’s a race between getting onshore and developing. The general trend is that it’ll be over the Carolinas before it can develop - NHC says 70% chance that it doesn’t become anything formal.

The buoy near the booster zone is showing 5-6ft waves, so watching this will be important tomorrow.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41004

The model lighting data shows limited storm coverage - especially by Florida afternoon standards - but it only takes one :)

Offline cebri

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The buoy near the booster zone is showing 5-6ft waves, so watching this will be important tomorrow.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41004

Those wave height numbers are getting uglier by the hour. Let's hope the weather improves.
"It's kind of amazing that a window of opportunity is open for life to beyond Earth, and we don't know how long this window is gonna be open" Elon Musk
"If you want to see an endangered species, get up and look in the mirror." John Young

Offline Shanuson

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Looking at windy.com wave prediction models, the waves will be below 2m at time of lunch for both.

Offline mrhuggy

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Wave wise off the coast of the SE US would be the biggest problem with predicted waves of 2-3m height. Further along the flight path off Canada and the UK would be more in the range of 1-2m size.

Picture of wave heights form Surf Forcast. https://www.surf-forecast.com/weather_maps/Nova-Scotia?over=none&type=htsgw


Offline Garrett

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I'm having trouble finding information on the various abort scenarios for this mission, in particular with regard to late aborts, i.e. during second stage flight. Such aborts would presumably result in non-nominal splash-downs in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. A search in this section of the forum turned up nothing on the subject, but I probably didn't look deep enough?

Does anybody know what protocols are in place for such aborts and how the crew are to be rescued?
I've read that such a late abort could result in a splash-down close to Ireland. How true is this? A ground track of the upcoming launch would be of help, but again, I haven't found one.

Thanks for any info.

Edit: Duh! :o Scratch that! I've just come across Chris G's article!  8)
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2020/05/examining-crew-dragons-launch-abort-modes-and-splashdown-locations/
« Last Edit: 05/27/2020 10:38 am by Garrett »
- "Nothing shocks me. I'm a scientist." - Indiana Jones

Offline wrvn

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I'm having trouble finding information on the various abort scenarios for this mission, in particular with regard to late aborts, i.e. during second stage flight. Such aborts would presumably result in non-nominal splash-downs in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. A search in this section of the forum turned up nothing on the subject, but I probably didn't look deep enough?

There was article on this site recently:
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2020/05/examining-crew-dragons-launch-abort-modes-and-splashdown-locations/

Offline Catbiscuits

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Hope I’m not wrong about this, but I’m surprised to see all the naysayers about launch readiness. It’s not surprising to see bad articles like the one in Politico (“Elon smoked a joint! The flight is unsafe”) but even here. For gods sakes, never has there been a launch vehicle with this much experience on first crewed flight (unless you count iterations of Soyuz as separate vehicles) and although Crew Dragon-2 <> Dragon, SpaceX has nonetheless gained lots of experience from its resupply missions. Today is quite unlikely to be a bad day. Now, what does concern me is when they get back in the capsule in three months. That’s a long time and no Dragon-2 or variant has been up there that long. But Starliner concerns me much, much more, heck even Soyuz does, given quality control issues in Russia.

Offline codav

That’s a long time and no Dragon-2 or variant has been up there that long. But Starliner concerns me much, much more, heck even Soyuz does, given quality control issues in Russia.

Well said! What most media (or commenters) just seem to ignore is the fact that this vehicle was developed together with NASA teams and SpaceX was way more open with all their processes than Boeing (AFAIK there was only communication between some superiors and NASA, not directly with the engineering teams working on Starliner).

As with all rocket launches and technical devices in general, there's always a risk of failure involved, which you can't get to zero, but reduce it so far that it is mitigated to a "safe" level.

IMHO the only naysayer worth listening to today will be the weather in the launch and recovery areas.

Offline Kabloona

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I'm having trouble finding information on the various abort scenarios for this mission, in particular with regard to late aborts, i.e. during second stage flight. Such aborts would presumably result in non-nominal splash-downs in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. A search in this section of the forum turned up nothing on the subject, but I probably didn't look deep enough?

Does anybody know what protocols are in place for such aborts and how the crew are to be rescued?
I've read that such a late abort could result in a splash-down close to Ireland. How true is this? A ground track of the upcoming launch would be of help, but again, I haven't found one.

Thanks for any info.


Here's a ground track.

https://mobile.twitter.com/spaceflightnow/status/1265581251412537344

Offline mrhuggy

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It is looking like we might have a Tropical Storm off the coast for a few hours.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2
Quote
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
725 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the area of low
pressure near the southeast U.S. coast.

Radar imagery indicates that the area of disturbed weather located
just offshore the South Carolina Coast has become significantly
better organized over the past few hours. Reports from an offshore
buoy are showing that this system is producing tropical-storm-force
winds. If these development trends continue, then this system
is likely to become a tropical storm before it moves inland later
today.

Heavy rainfall could cause flash flooding over portions of the
Carolinas today.  Gusty winds could also produce rough marine
conditions and life-threatening surf and rip currents along the
coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas through today.

1. For additional information, see products from your local National
Weather Service office.  The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook
on this system will be issued by 3PM EDT Wednesday, or earlier if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Latto

Offline rdale

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Yeah I’m standing down my forecast updates for today as from the UPDATES thread there is no way abort zones will allow for a launch.

Since that’s nothing we have specific criteria for I’m not going to bother.

I’ll put together a weekend forecast later this morning.

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