SpaceX Falcon 9 / Dragon 2 : SpX-DM2 : May 27, 2020 : DISCUSSION

[gongora]

Every advisory and oversight organization involved with NASA has been suggesting for quite a while that NASA procure more crew transportation, and this has nothing to do with whether a straw poll of DM-2's readiness this week looks promising or not.  Neither Commercial Crew vehicle is certified yet.  Procuring more seats is the prudent thing to do.

[Captain Crutch]

Any chance we get to see this, the first crewed Dragon 2 flight to the ISS, be docked to the ISS at the same time as the last Dragon 1 cargo resupply for CRS-20? I feel like that'd be a really nice send off for Dragon 1, and show the progress SpaceX has made with their capsules over the last many years. Just a thought, as if current launch dates stand I see it as possible...

[soltasto]

Any chance we get to see this, the first crewed Dragon 2 flight to the ISS, be docked to the ISS at the same time as the last Dragon 1 cargo resupply for CRS-20? I feel like that'd be a really nice send off for Dragon 1, and show the progress SpaceX has made with their capsules over the last many years. Just a thought, as if current launch dates stand I see it as possible...

Basically impossible with the current schedule as CRS-20 is scheduled do depart in the beginning od April while DM-2 is currently scheduled in a time frame beginning with late April.

CRS-20 would have to be delayed for that to happen.

[jjyach]

Every advisory and oversight organization involved with NASA has been suggesting for quite a while that NASA procure more crew transportation, and this has nothing to do with whether a straw poll of DM-2's readiness this week looks promising or not.  Neither Commercial Crew vehicle is certified yet.  Procuring more seats is the prudent thing to do.

Exactly. It is insurance since DM-2 has yet to fly and could have issues.  They realistically will need Soyuz seats as insurance even up until Dragon and Starliner both have completed their test flights and been certified so they always have redundant ways to access the ISS.

[ThomasGadd]

Any chance we get to see this, the first crewed Dragon 2 flight to the ISS, be docked to the ISS at the same time as the last Dragon 1 cargo resupply for CRS-20? I feel like that'd be a really nice send off for Dragon 1, and show the progress SpaceX has made with their capsules over the last many years. Just a thought, as if current launch dates stand I see it as possible...

Basically impossible with the current schedule as CRS-20 is scheduled do depart in the beginning od April while DM-2 is currently scheduled in a time frame beginning with late April.

CRS-20 would have to be delayed for that to happen.

CRS-20 is scheduled 2-March plenty of time before DM2. 

[Steven Pietrobon]

There is value added by this ONLY IF you asked Steven and he confirmed that he got this independent of the Russian “leak”.
Otherwise it’s just an echo chamber in here.

Yes, I got the 20 May date from here. I don't have any "secret" sources. All my information is from public sources.

[woods170]

https://twitter.com/astro_g_dogg/status/1231644054095425536

Yep, @DJSnM , @Astro_Doug and @AstroBehnken are being trained for a long-duration mission as #ISS crewmembers.  This is a change from the original plan to do a min duration test flight, driven by @NASA needs to staff the ISS.

Whoops! Looks like a SpaceX consultant (Garrett Reisman) revealed the new plan before NASA could announce this "officially".

[Brian45]

I think the lengthened mission is shortsighted of NASA. Better to train the next "operational" crew for the extended mission.

Here's what I think would happen - Once the DM2 capsule is returned to earth there will no doubt be a significant review of it's performance, with the consequent lengthy time span before first launch of the "passed" capsule & crew. So, under this rumored plan, DM2 crew stays at station for ~3 months, NASA reviews mission for what ~2 months? 5 months to final operational launch.

Better to get the DM2 mission done and the review started sooner. Start the "operational" crew training now (if it hasn't already begun). Once the capsule has been reviewed and passed, SpaceX can go "full steam ahead" with more capsules and get them into the workflow of staffing the ISS.

[ugordan]

Whoops! Looks like a SpaceX consultant (Garrett Reisman) revealed the new plan before NASA could announce this "officially".

Is this something that would already have been factored into the tentative NET May 7 (or 20) launch date, or is this a very recent decision that will push it further away?

[abaddon]

Whoops! Looks like a SpaceX consultant (Garrett Reisman) revealed the new plan before NASA could announce this "officially".

JSC already did that; for anyone paying attention, we know that there were no spacewalks planned for the DM-2 crew on their eight-day stay, and there would be no way they would conduct a spacewalk on such a short mission.  (As Scott Manley noted).

[ThomasGadd]

I think the lengthened mission is shortsighted of NASA. Better to train the next "operational" crew for the extended mission.

Here's what I think would happen - Once the DM2 capsule is returned to earth there will no doubt be a significant review of it's performance, with the consequent lengthy time span before first launch of the "passed" capsule & crew. So, under this rumored plan, DM2 crew stays at station for ~3 months, NASA reviews mission for what ~2 months? 5 months to final operational launch.

Better to get the DM2 mission done and the review started sooner. Start the "operational" crew training now (if it hasn't already begun). Once the capsule has been reviewed and passed, SpaceX can go "full steam ahead" with more capsules and get them into the workflow of staffing the ISS.

I agree that DM2 will have a extended post mission review I think NASA is keeping it's options open by training for an extended mission.  They don't have to do it. 
The next Dragon and crew are already in the pipeline they won't wait to start for DM2 completion. 
Small things can be rolled in on the fly, assuming nothing major is found of course. 

[CorvusCorax]

A lot of the reviewing can already be done in the time the extended DM2 crew would be at the station. They'll have all the data they can possibly have regarding launch vehicle performance, all the data they can have regarding rendezvous, proximity operations and docking, all the data they can have regarding life support and long term health while the capsule remains docked.

On the latter, an extended DM2 will be much more valuable, as they can see for a meaningful time how the capsule holds up docked to the station. Important when it is supposed to do so 6 months at a time.

Reentry and splashdown data will be the only things to be truly delayed by that. But considering SpaceX routine experience with cargo dragons I wouldn't hold my breath for big surprises. Especially considering DM1's flawless performance.

[Jcc]

I would like to see a long duration mission for DM2, but just the fact that they are training for it doesn’t guarantee that it will happen. The converse is true, if they were not training for long duration, that would guarantee that they don’t do it. NASA may still be evaluating the possibility, but they have to train now to have the possibility.

[abaddon]

PS It wouldn't be NASA if the agency DIDN'T do long-duration training for Demo-2 crew, again for aforementioned operational flexibility reasons. Starliner flight test crew undergoing similiar training and have been for a while but who knows what's going to end up with that?

Given that NASA has officially extended that mission, "who knows" would be "everyone who's paying attention".

[vaporcobra]

Alexphysics:  Is there a difference?
But others at NASA are expressing confidence:

twitter.com/carbon_flight/status/1230481429596921856

There haven't been Health Stabilization posters in Mission Control since 2011. @Commercial_Crew is getting really close to flying people to orbit from the US again!

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1230514716658847744

Seems like Demo-2 is not far off when you’re warning people not to get the astronauts sick.

Gongora nailed it but it should still be said, in simpler terms, that confidence should never be an accepted replacement for redundancy - at least not when the stakes are as high as they are.

[Vettedrmr]

Gongora nailed it but it should still be said, in simpler terms, that confidence should never be an accepted replacement for redundancy - at least not when the stakes are as high as they are.

Absolutely.  And NASA is smart to get as much redundancy as possible in this transition year.  With everything that's happened with Starliner, I'm fairly confident that NASA isn't going to send a crew up to ISS until that ship is ready.  And hopefully DM-2 will make a good flight this May and support ISS.  But until one of those get a crew rotation up and running, NASA is prudent to get seats reserved with Soyuz.

Have a good one,
Mike

[Comga]

Reading about Loverro sandbagging discussing the Starliner OFT, reminded me to ask if he or anyone else ever clarified his “tungsten incompatibility” comment about Dragon 2 and DM-2?
It’s been over a month since he said that.

[Rondaz]

Interesting times as we continue preparations for the @NASA/@SpaceX Demo-2 flight test. Balancing risk of infection with training, vehicle processing, and readiness assessments.

https://twitter.com/AstroBehnken/status/1243534958888734720

[erioladastra]

Any chance we get to see this, the first crewed Dragon 2 flight to the ISS, be docked to the ISS at the same time as the last Dragon 1 cargo resupply for CRS-20? I feel like that'd be a really nice send off for Dragon 1, and show the progress SpaceX has made with their capsules over the last many years. Just a thought, as if current launch dates stand I see it as possible...

I don't think Crew-1 can be launched into the DM-2 vehicle is back and goes through cert review.  And even if they figure a way to do that, right now the crewed vehicles can only go to Node 2 forward.  Zenith is still down the road.

[gongora]

Any chance we get to see this, the first crewed Dragon 2 flight to the ISS, be docked to the ISS at the same time as the last Dragon 1 cargo resupply for CRS-20? I feel like that'd be a really nice send off for Dragon 1, and show the progress SpaceX has made with their capsules over the last many years. Just a thought, as if current launch dates stand I see it as possible...

I don't think Crew-1 can be launched into the DM-2 vehicle is back and goes through cert review.  And even if they figure a way to do that, right now the crewed vehicles can only go to Node 2 forward.  Zenith is still down the road.

What is the Zenith port lacking?  It should be used for SpX-21 in the fall, and if they want to do direct handovers for the crew flights they'll need to have both working.