Author Topic: A failed Venus probe is coming home  (Read 6950 times)

Offline ejb749

Re: A failed Venus probe is coming home
« Reply #20 on: 07/11/2018 04:21 pm »
I found this article with that photo...

http://www.russianspaceweb.com/venera72_kosmos482.html

Offline Archibald

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Re: A failed Venus probe is coming home
« Reply #21 on: 07/11/2018 04:45 pm »
They should have hired Wonderwoman for the job. She would have flipped that agressive soviet probe with the tip of a finger.
« Last Edit: 07/11/2018 04:45 pm by Archibald »
...you have been found guilty by the elders of the forum of a (imaginary) vendetta against Saint Elon - BLAAASPHEMER !

Online Alter Sachse

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Re: A failed Venus probe is coming home
« Reply #22 on: 07/11/2018 05:04 pm »
2 large objects burned up in 1981 and 1983.
It is believed that it was the probe (Cosmos 482) and "blok L" (stage 4).

Online Alter Sachse

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Re: A failed Venus probe is coming home
« Reply #23 on: 07/11/2018 05:11 pm »
The still-in-orbit object 1972-023E is called a "fragment" in RAE-table.
« Last Edit: 07/11/2018 05:11 pm by Alter Sachse »

Offline gwiz

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Re: A failed Venus probe is coming home
« Reply #24 on: 07/11/2018 06:34 pm »
The photograph clearly shows that 1972-023E is the complete probe and it was still in orbit in 2011.  Clearly when whatever separated in June 1972 (capsule thermal cover would be my guess) the wrong item was labelled as debris.

Offline Phillip Clark

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Re: A failed Venus probe is coming home
« Reply #25 on: 07/11/2018 07:41 pm »
Vaguely recall someone getting a good photo of Kosmos 482 and showing it was still the complete vehicle with the capsule still attached.

Depends when the photo was taken of course.
I've always been crazy but it's kept me from going insane - WJ.

Online Alter Sachse

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Re: A failed Venus probe is coming home
« Reply #26 on: 07/12/2018 07:17 am »
1972-023E
(2018 July 09)
52.05 112.39min 202-2471 km

Offline gwiz

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Re: A failed Venus probe is coming home
« Reply #27 on: 07/12/2018 02:27 pm »
Depends when the photo was taken of course.
2011, see this link posted above by ejb749:
http://www.russianspaceweb.com/venera72_kosmos482.html
« Last Edit: 07/12/2018 02:27 pm by gwiz »

Offline Phillip Clark

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Re: A failed Venus probe is coming home
« Reply #28 on: 07/12/2018 03:08 pm »
I note that Anatoly Zak says "With less degree of certainty, it can be speculated that the Venus lander is still attached to the main probe while its upper stage is not" (my own emphasis).

After my earlier posting, I realised that the appearance of Object E would be too early for the timed separation of the capsule.   This normally happens in the final stage of the approach to Venus and Venera 8's descent was on July 22.   One would expect that the Venera/Cosmos 382 capsule would have separated at about the same time.   Maybe the capsule separated earlier than planned?   Or maybe some other part of the spacecraft broke away?

Zak refers to objects, presumably from the Molniya-M's fourth stage, were found in New Zealand.   I assume that these are what Geoff Perry referred to as the "Ashburton balls" at the time.
I've always been crazy but it's kept me from going insane - WJ.

Offline gwiz

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Re: A failed Venus probe is coming home
« Reply #29 on: 07/12/2018 06:29 pm »
I note that Anatoly Zak says "With less degree of certainty, it can be speculated that the Venus lander is still attached to the main probe while its upper stage is not" (my own emphasis).
If the capsule separated, where is it?  It must have a higher ballistic coefficient than the main probe and photo shows that the probe is still in orbit as 1972-023E, so the capsule should be as well.  Whatever separated in June 1972 and took over the 1972-023A designation had a lower ballistic coefficient than 1972-023E, as shown by its much more rapid decay rate.

Online Alter Sachse

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Re: A failed Venus probe is coming home
« Reply #30 on: 07/15/2018 06:44 pm »
I want to quote Spaceflight vol. 44 (September 2002):
"In early June 2002 the Action Report issued by the NASA Goddard Space Flight Centers
Orbit lnformation Group included a change-of-name for the object catalogued as 1972-
023E. It had previously been designated simply as "debris" but the amendment renamed it as
"Cosmos 482 Descent craft"."
....
"The object catalogued as 1972-23E was not catalogued until about June 29, 1972,..."


Offline Thomas Dorman

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Re: A failed Venus probe is coming home
« Reply #31 on: 10/06/2018 03:18 pm »
http://www.russianspaceweb.com/venera72_kosmos482.html
Made a written proposal to the  Tira radar staff in Germany  to image Cosmos 482 before it decays back in March 2018 to see if they could tell how much of this spacecraft actually is intact  and the proposal was excepted but have heard nothing since.  Guess they are waiting until it decays well below 200 Kms.
« Last Edit: 10/06/2018 03:21 pm by Thomas Dorman »

Online Alter Sachse

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Re: A failed Venus probe is coming home
« Reply #32 on: 10/06/2018 04:56 pm »
1972-023E
(2018 July 09)
52.05 112.39min 202-2471 km
2018 Oct  01
52.06 112.17min 202-2451 km

Online Alter Sachse

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Re: A failed Venus probe is coming home
« Reply #33 on: 02/27/2019 04:57 pm »
1972-023E
(2018 July 09)
52.05 112.39min 202-2471 km
2018 Oct  01
52.06 112.17min 202-2451 km
2019 Feb 20
52.06 111.66min 203-2403 km

Online high road

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Re: A failed Venus probe is coming home
« Reply #34 on: 02/27/2019 07:57 pm »
This post made me aware of the Venus landers which I didn't even know existed.  Amazing!  They had to make machinery at earth temperatures that would work after they had been heated up to hundreds of degrees celcius, causing the metals to expand.  I thought that the technology to put a machine on the surface of Venus was decades in the future but it was actually decades in the past.

http://mentallandscape.com/C_CatalogVenus.htm
http://mentallandscape.com/C_Venera09_Processed.jpg
http://mentallandscape.com/C_Venera10_Processed.jpg
http://mentallandscape.com/C_Venera13_Camera1.jpg
http://mentallandscape.com/C_Venera13_Camera2.jpg
http://mentallandscape.com/C_Venera14_Camera1.jpg
http://mentallandscape.com/C_Venera14_Camera2.jpg

Cosmos 482 burnt down 1981 May 5 in the earth's atmosphere.
The object in Earth orbit is probably the landing capsule, which was separated 1972 July 29.

If it is the landing capsule I wonder if it'll make it to the surface in one piece given it was meant to survive the conditions on Venus. Not that it will be found.

Actually, it wasn't built to survive the conditions of Venus. They designed it for the tropical yet earthlike planet they thought Venus was. Only when the first measurements came back, did they realize how hostile Venus really is. The fact that the probes survived as long as they did is all due to Russian overengineering. The following Venera and Vega probes used the same basic design. A lander designed for Venusian conditions would likely be able to last considerably longer. How useful it would be is another matter, as the instrument package is the most sensitive part.
« Last Edit: 02/27/2019 08:01 pm by high road »

Online daedalus1

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Re: A failed Venus probe is coming home
« Reply #35 on: 02/27/2019 08:10 pm »
Actually they reengineered the Landers after the U.S. Mariner spacecraft indicated that the conditions on the surface was unbelievably extreme. But still under estimated the real conditions.

Offline Star One

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A failed Venus probe is coming home
« Reply #36 on: 03/23/2019 07:07 pm »
As to the thread title it is but not yet. By the way Thomas Dorman himself has commented himself under the article.

No, the failed Venus lander from Kosmos 482 is not about to come down yet

Quote
It concerned an unusual object launched 47 years ago, called the Kosmos 482 Descent Craft (1972-023E, CSpOC nr 6073). Word was that it was about to reenter into the atmosphere, maybe even this year.  But will it?  Short answer: almost certainly not.

The source of the prediction is attributed to Thomas Dorman in the Space.com article, but how the prediction was done is not clear from the news coverage. On the request of David Dickinson, who was preparing an article on the topic for Universe Today, I made my own assessment of the issue. I looked at the orbital decay of 1972-023E since 1973 and did some GMAT modelling to gain insight into how the orbital decay will develop in the future.

As I will show in this post, my modelling suggests the Kosmos 482 Descent Craft is not to come down yet for several years.
« Last Edit: 03/23/2019 07:13 pm by Star One »

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