Author Topic: Soyuz-2.1a - Kosmos 2556 (Bars-M №3) - Plesetsk 43/4 - May 19, 2022 (08:03UTC) (Read 19449 times)

zubenelgenubi · « **on:** 06/18/2018 09:51 pm »

Apparently, the next Bars-M launch, the third, could be the next Soyuz launch from Plesetsk.

And, it could be the next orbital launch from Plesetsk.

It could also be the next launch receiving a "Kosmos" designation.

If it's OK with all concerned, I have started a launch thread here.

Quote from: Satori on 06/06/2018 07:10 pm

Planned Russian space launches
(suborbital launches are not included!)

2018
Date Time (UTC) – Satellite(s) – Rocket/Upper stage – Cosmodrome

July - Bars-M n.º 3 - Soyuz-2-1a - Plesetsk, 43/4

EDIT 7/5/2018
EDIT 7/27/2018

Satori · « **Reply #1 on:** 07/20/2018 04:23 pm »

Bumping this one for a possible launch this month.

Any news?

B. Hendrickx · « **Reply #2 on:** 07/20/2018 10:47 pm »

Quote from: Satori on 07/20/2018 04:23 pm

Bumping this one for a possible launch this month.

Any news?

http://novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/forum/forum14/topic16307/?PAGEN_1=15

The list of planned launches on the NK forum still gives the launch date as July 2018, but adds "or 2019". A link is given to this article published on 27 June in "Kommersant" :

https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/3669552

However, this only says that four more Bars-M satellites are expected to be launched, the last one "no later than 2022".

zubenelgenubi · « **Reply #3 on:** 09/04/2018 08:33 pm »

Cross-posts:

Quote from: Satori on 08/21/2018 01:24 pm

Planned Russian space launches
(suborbital launches are not included!)

2018
Date Time (UTC) – Satellite(s) – Rocket/Upper stage – Cosmodrome

NET September - Bars-M n.º 3 - Soyuz-2-1a - Plesetsk, 43/4

Changes on September 1

***

And, here's a thought that could apply to this launch:

Quote from: Nicolas PILLET on 08/31/2018 07:57 pm

I wonder if there will be a space launch during the big military exercise Russia will be doing on 11-15th September.

During 1982 exercise, there were three launches. And there was one in February 2004...

EDIT 9/25: no Russian orbital launches during the exercise.

zubenelgenubi · « **Reply #4 on:** 10/25/2018 05:59 am »

Cross-post; slipped to 2019:

Quote from: Satori on 10/14/2018 08:04 pm

Planned Russian space launches
(suborbital launches are not included!)

2019
Date – Satellite(s) – Rocket/Upper stage – Cosmodrome – Time

TBD - Bars-M n.º 3 - Soyuz-2-1a - Plesetsk, 43/4

zubenelgenubi · « **Reply #5 on:** 06/05/2019 04:57 pm »

Cross-post:

Quote from: Salo on 06/05/2019 08:28 am

https://twitter.com/anik1982space/status/1135835206542401537
Google translate:
Quote
anik @ anik1982space 23 hours ago
The new Russian military satellite map "Bars-M" is planned to be created until December 2019, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Tuesday. “(Question) concerns the technological re-equipment of the orbital grouping of military spacecraft. 1/2

anik @ anik1982space 23 hours ago
In particular, the manufacture of the Bars-M observation and mapping satellite, which is being developed by the Progress Rocket and Space Center ... The Supreme Commander assigned the task to complete the creation of this device by December 1 of this year, "Shoigu said. 2/2

Even if the satellite's manufacture is completed by December 1, 2019, then doesn't that push launch into 2020?

zubenelgenubi · « **Reply #6 on:** 05/10/2020 03:59 pm »

Brief discussion of the next Soyuz-2 launch from Plesetsk here that includes mention of an impending LV shipment to Plesetsk; this could be for the third Bars-M satellite.

Possibility mentioned again in this cross-post:

Quote from: Olaf on 05/10/2020 02:37 pm

https://twitter.com/katlinegrey/status/1259407869688102914

***

If this is the next, successful launch of a Kosmos-designated satellite, then it should be Kosmos 2546.

B. Hendrickx · « **Reply #7 on:** 05/10/2020 08:02 pm »

The RIA report referred to by Katya Pavlushchenko only says that according to the news agency's sources the next Russian space launch will take place in the second half of the month. I'm not sure why she thinks the payload is Bars-M nr. 3. There are many Russian military launches that are long overdue. One that seems to have come close to launch last year, but didn't fly is Neitron. Several other possible candidates as well.

zubenelgenubi · « **Reply #8 on:** 05/10/2020 09:35 pm »

Barring a direct announcement of the identity of the payload, our next clue should be launch NOTAMs and/or NOTMARs?

Alter Sachse · « **Reply #9 on:** 05/11/2020 12:09 pm »

Quote from: B. Hendrickx on 05/10/2020 08:02 pm

The RIA report referred to by Katya Pavlushchenko only says that according to the news agency's sources the next Russian space launch will take place in the second half of the month. I'm not sure why she thinks the payload is Bars-M nr. 3. There are many Russian military launches that are long overdue. One that seems to have come close to launch last year, but didn't fly is Neitron. Several other possible candidates as well.

NK forum also writes Bars #3.
Maybe they have insider information ?

B. Hendrickx · « **Reply #10 on:** 05/11/2020 12:45 pm »

Quote from: Alter Sachse on 05/11/2020 12:09 pm

Quote from: B. Hendrickx on 05/10/2020 08:02 pm
The RIA report referred to by Katya Pavlushchenko only says that according to the news agency's sources the next Russian space launch will take place in the second half of the month. I'm not sure why she thinks the payload is Bars-M nr. 3. There are many Russian military launches that are long overdue. One that seems to have come close to launch last year, but didn't fly is Neitron. Several other possible candidates as well.
NK forum also writes Bars #3.
Maybe they have insider information ?

Could be, although the source given for that information is a June 2018 article in the "Kommersant" newspaper which said that the full constellation of Bars satellites (six satellites in all) was expected to be in orbit by 2022. That in itself is not enough to conclude that the payload for the upcoming launch will indeed be Bars-M nr. 3.

Alter Sachse · « **Reply #11 on:** 05/12/2020 01:57 pm »

Launch is scheduled for the 22nd. There will be no Bars, the path goes to the east.

http://novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/forum/messages/forum12/topic17958/message1985347/#message1985347

zubenelgenubi · « **Reply #12 on:** 05/12/2020 03:30 pm »

New launch thread is here.

If we learn that the payload is one that has a previously existing launch thread, it will be merged to that thread.

EDIT May 13: New thread is labelled for the fourth EKS/Tundra/Kupol satellite.

zubenelgenubi · « **Reply #13 on:** 09/08/2021 07:07 pm »

Russian MoD suing RKTs Progress regarding non-delivery of Bars-M spacecraft. Bars-M #3 was originally to have been delivered in 2017.

Vahe231991 · « **Reply #14 on:** 09/10/2021 12:55 am »

The NextSpaceflight website now lists the Bars-M #3 launch as being scheduled for NET January 2022.

B. Hendrickx · « **Reply #15 on:** 09/10/2021 10:14 am »

Quote from: Vahe231991 on 09/10/2021 12:55 am

The NextSpaceflight website now lists the Bars-M #3 launch as being scheduled for NET January 2022.

This website is sometimes quoted here for launch dates of Russian military satellites, but it is highly unlikely that the people who run it have any inside knowledge of the Plesetsk launch schedule.

Closer to Space · « **Reply #16 on:** 09/10/2021 11:31 am »

Quote from: B. Hendrickx on 09/10/2021 10:14 am

This website is sometimes quoted here for launch dates of Russian military satellites, but it is highly unlikely that the people who run it have any inside knowledge of the Plesetsk launch schedule.

Indeed, these dates are, as they indicate, NET (Not Earlier Than), which only indicate that the launch will not happen before January 2022. We don't have (unfortunately...) any contacts in Plesetsk who could give us a precise date, and I honestly don't think they have one for the moment...

B. Hendrickx · « **Reply #17 on:** 04/19/2022 09:25 pm »

A post by a usually reliable inside source on the NK forum suggests that the launch of the third Bars-M military topographic mapping satellite is imminent. This is the first of a batch of four Bars-M satellites ordered by the Ministry of Defense in 2014. Its launch has slipped numerous times. Indications are that the first two Bars-M satellites (Kosmos-2503 and 2515, launched in 2015 and 2016) are no longer operational.

zubenelgenubi · « **Reply #18 on:** 04/19/2022 10:58 pm »

I merged the the threads and added "April/May 2022" to the thread title. We don't know how imminent "imminent" is.

Is there any particular technology aboard that has delayed this launch for so long? The effect of the 2014 and forward sanctions?

Or is it primarily a question of priorities for the Ministry of Defense?

Edit May 1: Not yet. Thread title edited.

The Kosmos 2555 launch on Angara-1.2 from Plesetsk did proceed on April 29.

B. Hendrickx · « **Reply #19 on:** 05/11/2022 06:15 pm »

NOTAMs have appeared for a space launch by the Russian Aerospace Forces between May 19 and May 22 with a daily window from 7.30 to 10.00 UTC.

Quote

Quote
A3074/22 NOTAMN
Q) ENOB/QRDCA/IV/BO /W /000/999/7033N03203E024
A) ENOB B) 2205190730 C) 2205221000
D) DAILY 0730-1000
E) THE RUSSIAN AEROSPACE FORCES PLANS TO LAUNCH MISSILE IN THE SPACE
AND TO SINK ITS FRAGMENTES IN THE WATERS OF THE BASIN OF BARETNTS
SEA. TEMPO DANGER AREA ESTABLISHED 'RUSSIAN MISSILE MAY22 AREA 1'
PSN: 705600N 0320458E - 701000N 0320458E - 700928N 0320152E -
701500N 0315000E - 703007N 0315000E - 703622N 0314318E - (705600N
0320458E)
F) SFC G) UNL
CREATED: 11 May 2022 06:50:00
SOURCE: EUECYIYN

A3075/22 NOTAMN
Q) ENOB/QRDCA/IV/BO /W /000/999/7540N02149E051
A) ENOB B) 2205190730 C) 2205221000
D) DAILY 0730-1000
E) THE RUSSIAN AEROSPACE FORCES PLANS TO LAUNCH MISSILE IN THE SPACE
AND TO SINK ITS FRAGMENTES IN THE WATERS OF THE BASIN OF BARETNTS
SEA. TEMPO DANGER AREA ESTABLISHED 'RUSSIAN MISSILE MAY22 AREA 2'
PSN: 763000N 0220000E - 752000N 0244000E - 745000N 0214000E -
755000N 0184000E - (763000N 0220000E)
F) SFC G) UNL
CREATED: 11 May 2022 06:54:00
SOURCE: EUECYIYN

The impact zones in the Barents Sea point to a launch into a Sun-synchronous orbit. Last month an insider on the NK forum hinted that the next Bars-M satellite was close to launch, so the best guess right now is that this will be the payload. This will be the fifth Russian military launch in about 3 months, a pace rarely seen in recent years.