Also, the five crosses are not five different systems. Instead, a total of 81 binaries has been grouped into five bins and the crosses show the data for each bin.
First sentence of section 2: "I construct a sample of simulated binaries with the goal of comparing to the sample studied by Hernandez et al. (2018)."
Right there we may have already lost reproducibility. How many different ways are there to construct a sample that would have this same goal?
I first sample positions for the center of mass of each binary assuming a uniform spatial distribution. I then reject a random subset of the simulated binaries such that their distribution of heliocentric distance is similar to that of the observed sample. Center-of-mass velocities for each simulated binary are drawn from a 3D Gaussian with σ1D = 25 km s−1
Hernandez et al were well aware of the "projection effect" and other confounding factors
and like El-Badry dealt with it by constructing simulated binary systems. Or as they say,
"These binaries were then compared to Newtonian predictions for the expected one
dimensional rms. relative velocity between the components of each binary and their
projected separations, including modeling orientation effects, a number of plausible
distributions of ellipticities and, crucially, the effects of Galactic tides and stellar and stellar
remnant perturbers over a 10 Gyr period, by Jiang & Tremaine (2010)."
...
I'm wondering if an implicit assumption of the El-Badry paper is that the Gaia data on radial
velocities is wrong. If that is the case, then that assumption should have been explicity stated.
meberbs said, "Note that the final conclusion is just that the data is still potentially consistent with GR."
Which paper are you asserting says that? The Hernandez paper says the data is inconsistent with the Newtonian physics. The El-Badry paper says in effect that it may be that the data is consistent with Newtonian physics (or GR).
But I think that many people reading the El-Badry paper get confused, and think that it is actually a demonstration that the data is consistent with Newtonian physics. As you probably intended to point out, the verbal conclusion is much more tentative.
But given that figure 2 in the El-Badry paper seems such strong evidence that the data is consistent with GR, why would El-Badry say it's tentative?
I could explain in greater depth why I don't think there is enough detail in the description of the process in the paper to replicate the creation of the simulated binaries. But I already did that for a couple of paragraphs and from all I can tell you couldn't even be bothered to read it.
And when you assert that an expert can do this, are you claiming to be that expert?
And by the way don't misconstrue what I'm saying. I'm not saying that another person trying to do roughly what El-Badry did is going to come up with significantly different results. El-Badry definitely gave enough information in the paper that unless he made some significant mistake that another person coming along and making their own reasonable assumptions and following El-Badry when he did specifically say something, won't come up with similar results.
But that's not what I meant by replication.
But it's interesting to note that in figure 5 of the Hernandez paper, they present the results of their calculations on a population of simulated binaries, and they came up with a completely different result than the El-Badry paper. Or at least so it appears.
But I have a question for you. What do you mean that there is more than one kind of "projection effect"?
The more I think about it, the less likely it seems to me that this data could ever be used to falsify GR. If the true velocities really are too fast to be bound in GR, then that just implies it was a mistake to classify them as a bound pair to begin with. Wide binaries would orbit each other on timescales such that we simply can't just watch them orbit each other to see that they are truly bound.
But I have a question for you. What do you mean that there is more than one kind of "projection effect"?Hernandez talks about the small angle approximation and instead using the full spherical coordinate transforms. While locations of the stars may have been projected with as much detail as needed for their 1D separation distances, nothing in that paper addresses that due to projection effects the velocity components of the stars easily measured from Earth are in slightly different directions as shown in the El-Brady paper, so a 1D velocity comparison won't match up with the simple version of the theory that Hernandez compares to.
Since neither paper resolves this issue by using the full 3D velocities, I am assuming that increases the error bars by too much to actually conclude anything.
The more I think about it, the less likely it seems to me that this data could ever be used to falsify GR. If the true velocities really are too fast to be bound in GR, then that just implies it was a mistake to classify them as a bound pair to begin with. Wide binaries would orbit each other on timescales such that we simply can't just watch them orbit each other to see that they are truly bound.
The more I think about it, the less likely it seems to me that this data could ever be used to falsify GR. If the true velocities really are too fast to be bound in GR, then that just implies it was a mistake to classify them as a bound pair to begin with. Wide binaries would orbit each other on timescales such that we simply can't just watch them orbit each other to see that they are truly bound.
Bingo. The most likely explanation is that these stars are not actually bound.
It's difficult to get definitive measurements in astronomy due to the distance and time scales. Best bet for exploring GR with astronomical measurements is improving the results of the Event Horizon Telescope. Supermassive black holes provide an extreme environment with rapid changes. That should sort out between GR and competing theories.
But it's interesting to note that in figure 5 of the Hernandez paper, they present the results of their calculations on a population of simulated binaries, and they came up with a completely different result than the El-Badry paper. Or at least so it appears.No, they showed the curve for the naive theoretical plot, rather than the a simulation like in the El-Badry paper that accounts for all of the variables.
This difference between the apparent distance and real distance between the two binaries is not the projection effect. I'll repeat that, this is NOT the projection effect. We don't even care for this purpose what the real distance is between the two binaries.
Why is that? It's because x, y, and z are independent of each other.
We can put a coordinate frame on the binaries. For our convenience we make x and y tangent to a sphere around the earth. And z is along a line coming from the earth. We can measure x and y and dx and dy in radians very precisely. In this context we want to plot dx versus the distance in x between the two binaries and we want to plot dy versus the distance in y. Note that we can see what the distance (radians) in x is between the two binaries and we can see what the distance (radians) in y is. We may have no idea what the distance in z is, but we don't need to know that.
And that's interesting because do we need to know dz to figure out the position of the binary? Wouldn't just knowing x, y, and z for each star be enough to give the location of the binary to a reasonable and good enough approximation for this context?
Hernandez et al. calculate that for each of these 81 systems the odds are less than 10% that they are not what they appear to be.
Hernandez et al. claim in their paper that this is based on simulated binaries. Quote: "Also shown in Figure 5 are the Newtonian predictions for this same quantity from Ref. 11, where large collections of 50,000 simulated binaries are modelled for a range of plausible distributions of ellipticities, and followed dynamically under Newtonian expectations within the local Galactic tidal field. These are also subject to the effects of field star and field stellar remnant bombardment for a 10 Gyr period."
Since I haven't read Ref. 11, I don't know what they actually did.
This difference between the apparent distance and real distance between the two binaries is not the projection effect. I'll repeat that, this is NOT the projection effect. We don't even care for this purpose what the real distance is between the two binaries.That actually is a projection effect, and when determining the gravitational force between 2 bodies, knowing the true distance is relevant.Why is that? It's because x, y, and z are independent of each other.What x,y,and z? Measurements are all done in spherical coordinates, r, theta (θ), and phi (φ) and the directions of the coordinate axes are not independent of each other.We can put a coordinate frame on the binaries. For our convenience we make x and y tangent to a sphere around the earth. And z is along a line coming from the earth. We can measure x and y and dx and dy in radians very precisely. In this context we want to plot dx versus the distance in x between the two binaries and we want to plot dy versus the distance in y. Note that we can see what the distance (radians) in x is between the two binaries and we can see what the distance (radians) in y is. We may have no idea what the distance in z is, but we don't need to know that.What you are describing here is spherical coordinates, but with non-standard terminology. Please do some research on spherical coordinates. For 2 stars with significant separation, the local coordinate axes are oriented differently, this means the plane that good velocity measurements are made in is different for the 2stars, so a direct comparison of those measured velocities gives inaccurate results. This cannot be properly corrected for without knowledge of the full 3D velocity, but radial velocity knowledge is significantly more uncertain in the available data sets.
You previously said that you understood the projection effect described by El-Brady, but it is clear now that you did not understand the description. Please find a resource on spherical coordiantes and then try reading the paper again.And that's interesting because do we need to know dz to figure out the position of the binary? Wouldn't just knowing x, y, and z for each star be enough to give the location of the binary to a reasonable and good enough approximation for this context?I will use the standard terminology here for clarity:
Assuming that we know θ, φ, and r accurately, and that we know velocities in the dθ and dφ directions accurately, we cannot transform the θ and φ velocities to be represented in the same plane for both stars without knowledge of the radial velocity. The entire point of the El-Brady paper is to show this fact. At the end he assesses how the expected errors change given different amounts of knowledge of the radial velocity information.Hernandez et al. calculate that for each of these 81 systems the odds are less than 10% that they are not what they appear to be.This implies that possibly around 8 of them are not bound and should show "discrepant velocities." However, it is also possible that the models used to calculate that probability are in error, possibly due to one assumption or another (El-Brady gives multiple specific examples). If better radial velocity measurements were available and show velocities not consistent with GR, the simplest conclusion is just that they are not actually bound and that it was a mistake to classify them as such. There would be no way to exclude that possibility since we can't simply wait for the stars to orbit each other, and measurements are simply not accurate enough to measure the orbital motion on a reasonable time scale.
There is nothing wrong with the way I stated it. I'm describing an idea. And we can flip from x, y, z coordinates to r, theta, phi at will.
The reason why I chose to look at it from an x, y, z perspective (Cartesian) is that it simplifies the problem. You are correct that I'm actually defining two different Cartesian coordinate frameworks: one for each star.
But that's not a practical problem because when it comes time to calculate the distance between the two in theta, or the differences in velocity in theta, then since we know the angles we can transform the two Cartesian frameworks into one common spherical framework for the purpose of doing those calculations. And the same with respect to phi.
Now it may be standard practice for astronomers to think in terms of r, theta, and phi, but for this problem it makes it more complicated.
This difference between the apparent distance and real distance between the two binaries is not the projection effect. I'll repeat that, this is NOT the projection effect. We don't even care for this purpose what the real distance is between the two binaries.That actually is a projection effect, and when determining the gravitational force between 2 bodies, knowing the true distance is relevant.
A different coordinate system for each star is formed by the nature of the measurements.
A different coordinate system for each star is formed by the nature of the measurements.
Well, when I read that the McCullogh graph above invalidated GR, my baloney detector went off.
Still, following this interchange as best as I can, I have to ask the obvious: What does the graph show? Not purport to show, but simply, what does the graph show?
I understand that each binary system can be considered in its own coordinate system. This is like taking a box with an xyz setup, and putting the binary system in it. Then the different binary pairs can be compared and analyzed.
So maybe you could offer a slightly dumbed down version for those of us who are having some trouble following the argument above?
I rephrased things, but I am not sure I really dumbed it down, I used a bunch of technical terms. Please ask if further definitions or clarifications are needed.
I rephrased things, but I am not sure I really dumbed it down, I used a bunch of technical terms. Please ask if further definitions or clarifications are needed.He's asking you TO dumb it down for the rest of us. I greatly admire your grasp, but I don't have anywhere near your abilities.
Nevertheless, keep it up, I usually learn something new.