Author Topic: CNBC Interview with Gwynne May 22, 2018  (Read 17254 times)

Offline ehb

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CNBC Interview with Gwynne May 22, 2018
« on: 05/22/2018 06:39 PM »
CNBC:
Quote
ALL DAY TOMORROW ON @CNBC: @MorganLBrennan has an exclusive look at @SpaceX, including a sitdown with President & COO Gwynne Shotwell. Starting 810amET on @SquawkCNBC
https://twitter.com/jodigralnick/status/998692403241402368
« Last Edit: 05/22/2018 10:30 PM by gongora »

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Re: Upcoming Talks - SpaceX Related
« Reply #1 on: 05/22/2018 06:53 PM »



Online gongora

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Re: Re: Upcoming Talks - SpaceX Related
« Reply #2 on: 05/22/2018 06:55 PM »
Finally realistic launch numbers: 24-28 this year, ~18 in 2019.  ~14 first stages built this year, ~30 second stages.

Offline speedevil

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Re: Re: Upcoming Talks - SpaceX Related
« Reply #3 on: 05/22/2018 07:03 PM »
Finally realistic launch numbers: 24-28 this year, ~18 in 2019.  ~14 first stages built this year, ~30 second stages.
Assuming  second stages = launches of course.(not got to end of videos)

Online gongora

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Re: Re: Upcoming Talks - SpaceX Related
« Reply #4 on: 05/22/2018 07:06 PM »
Finally realistic launch numbers: 24-28 this year, ~18 in 2019.  ~14 first stages built this year, ~30 second stages.
Assuming  second stages = launches of course.(not got to end of videos)

Not assuming anything, she gave those targets for numbers of launches (2019 similar to 2017).

Online S.Paulissen

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Re: Re: Upcoming Talks - SpaceX Related
« Reply #5 on: 05/22/2018 07:08 PM »
CNBC:
Quote
ALL DAY TOMORROW ON @CNBC: @MorganLBrennan has an exclusive look at @SpaceX, including a sitdown with President & COO Gwynne Shotwell. Starting 810amET on @SquawkCNBC
*snipped link*
*snipped link*

Well at least one person isn't fooled...

"BFR, that's Big Effing Rocket..." - interviewer
« Last Edit: 05/22/2018 07:16 PM by S.Paulissen »
"An expert is a person who has found out by his own painful experience all the mistakes that one can make in a very narrow field." -Niels Bohr
Poster previously known as Exclavion going by his real name now.

Offline speedevil

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Re: Re: Upcoming Talks - SpaceX Related
« Reply #6 on: 05/22/2018 07:12 PM »
Finally realistic launch numbers: 24-28 this year, ~18 in 2019.  ~14 first stages built this year, ~30 second stages.
Assuming  second stages = launches of course.(not got to end of videos)

Not assuming anything, she gave those targets for numbers of launches (2019 similar to 2017).

Indeed.
Interesting claim of a dip in 2019, and seems to rule out Starlink in 2019.
That, combined with reuse may give a lot of space to build hardware for a rapid campaign even in 2020.

Offline abaddon

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Re: Re: Upcoming Talks - SpaceX Related
« Reply #7 on: 05/22/2018 09:56 PM »
Interesting claim of a dip in 2019, and seems to rule out Starlink in 2019.
I don't think so.  She also talked about SpaceX owning "about sixty percent of the launch market".  Clearly she's talking about competed/contracted launches here, not all launches.  I therefore think this is specifically regarding to contracted launches and not necessarily internal ones.

Now, it might be Starlink isn't ready in 2019 and does not contribute to the manifest, but I don't think this information rules out that we might see some Starlink launches next year.
« Last Edit: 05/22/2018 10:01 PM by abaddon »

Online MikeAtkinson

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Re: CNBC Interview with Gwynne May 22, 2018
« Reply #8 on: 05/22/2018 10:49 PM »
« Last Edit: 05/22/2018 10:50 PM by MikeAtkinson »

Online Lars-J

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Re: CNBC Interview with Gwynne May 22, 2018
« Reply #9 on: 05/22/2018 10:56 PM »
So according to their VP of production(?) and Gwynne, they can produce ~1 M1D engine per day, and one F9 every 14 days. (~26/year)

Now that first stage reuse will kick in, we'll see how that changes now that they have to build more second stages and fewer first stages. But in the near term, it looks like their current production rate will be sufficient, if they will 'only' have ~18 launches in 2019.
« Last Edit: 05/22/2018 10:59 PM by Lars-J »

Online wannamoonbase

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Re: CNBC Interview with Gwynne May 22, 2018
« Reply #10 on: 05/22/2018 11:44 PM »
Sounds like some reasons to not worry about some sliding from 2018 into 2019.

Or sheís letting potential customers know there are launch opportunities open.
Jonesing for a copy of 'Tales of Suspense #39'

Offline M.E.T.

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Re: CNBC Interview with Gwynne May 22, 2018
« Reply #11 on: 05/23/2018 12:00 AM »
The dip in 2019 is surprising, and should arguably be concerning, pending further details. A sign of a revenue dip next year?

Barring Starlink, which I still maintain is not external launch revenue flowing into the company, but is instead merely an added cost until such time as customers start paying for internet subscriptions, have they topped out their annual revenue potential in 2018? I thought they had $10 billion in launches lined up. Why would they not try and tap into as much as possible of that revenue as soon as possible, unless the market currently cannot carry more launches?

I had really expected a steady annual ramp up curve from this point onwards. Anyone have more insight into the 2019 dip?

Online gongora

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Re: CNBC Interview with Gwynne May 22, 2018
« Reply #12 on: 05/23/2018 12:03 AM »
I had really expected a steady annual ramp up curve from this point onwards. Anyone have more insight into the 2019 dip?

This really shouldn't be surprising to anyone who has looked at the manifest in the last year.  That's about how many payloads they have contracts to launch.  Starlink isn't ready yet.  What else are they going to launch?

Offline testguy

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Re: CNBC Interview with Gwynne May 22, 2018
« Reply #13 on: 05/23/2018 12:12 AM »
It will be interesting to hear what she has to say about BFR.  I believe Shotwell or the interviewer indicated it is on schedule.  BFR was supposed to be funded through profit from operations.  Iím wondering what the dip in 2019 launches will do to the schedule.

Offline M.E.T.

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Re: CNBC Interview with Gwynne May 22, 2018
« Reply #14 on: 05/23/2018 12:17 AM »
I had really expected a steady annual ramp up curve from this point onwards. Anyone have more insight into the 2019 dip?

This really shouldn't be surprising to anyone who has looked at the manifest in the last year.  That's about how many payloads they have contracts to launch.  Starlink isn't ready yet.  What else are they going to launch?

Fair point. I guess I was just thinking they would tap into the frequently referenced $10 billion launch manifest as soon as possible.
I guess then much of the $10 billion is not accessible just yet.

Online gongora

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Re: CNBC Interview with Gwynne May 22, 2018
« Reply #15 on: 05/23/2018 12:20 AM »
I had really expected a steady annual ramp up curve from this point onwards. Anyone have more insight into the 2019 dip?

This really shouldn't be surprising to anyone who has looked at the manifest in the last year.  That's about how many payloads they have contracts to launch.  Starlink isn't ready yet.  What else are they going to launch?

Fair point. I guess I was just thinking they would tap into the frequently referenced $10 billion launch manifest as soon as possible.
I guess then much of the $10 billion is not accessible just yet.

I'm still trying to figure out what those 100 launches would even be, unless they shoved 30-40 Starlink flights in there.

Offline yg1968

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Re: CNBC Interview with Gwynne May 22, 2018
« Reply #16 on: 05/23/2018 12:27 AM »
« Last Edit: 05/23/2018 12:44 AM by yg1968 »

Offline M.E.T.

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Re: CNBC Interview with Gwynne May 22, 2018
« Reply #17 on: 05/23/2018 12:28 AM »
This news is particularly interesting in light of the recent furore about the Ariane chiefís comments on how the launch market isnít large enough to pay for reuse (he was throwing around a number of 30 or so launches as a mininum requirement for Ariane).

We know the plan is for that not to be the case as the market expands, but it would seem based on these numbers that this expansion may not be in time for the 2019 calendar year to maintain current SpaceX launch levels.

Interesting.
« Last Edit: 05/23/2018 12:29 AM by M.E.T. »

Online wannamoonbase

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Re: CNBC Interview with Gwynne May 22, 2018
« Reply #18 on: 05/23/2018 12:46 AM »
I had really expected a steady annual ramp up curve from this point onwards. Anyone have more insight into the 2019 dip?

This really shouldn't be surprising to anyone who has looked at the manifest in the last year.  That's about how many payloads they have contracts to launch.  Starlink isn't ready yet.  What else are they going to launch?

Fair point. I guess I was just thinking they would tap into the frequently referenced $10 billion launch manifest as soon as possible.
I guess then much of the $10 billion is not accessible just yet.

Launch contracts are signed years in advance.  If one wants to judge SpaceX success then look at where they were 2-3 years ago and launching now, or contracts they are signing now launching in 2-3 years.

As for revenue, Iíd expect a crew launch plus cargo to be worth more than a couple Comsats.

Also, if they were worried about revenue or profit (to a big degree) they wouldnít have just cut launch prices. 

It will interesting to hear what Gwyneth says, but I donít expect anything g revolutionary
Jonesing for a copy of 'Tales of Suspense #39'

Offline M.E.T.

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Re: CNBC Interview with Gwynne May 22, 2018
« Reply #19 on: 05/23/2018 12:51 AM »
I had really expected a steady annual ramp up curve from this point onwards. Anyone have more insight into the 2019 dip?

This really shouldn't be surprising to anyone who has looked at the manifest in the last year.  That's about how many payloads they have contracts to launch.  Starlink isn't ready yet.  What else are they going to launch?

Fair point. I guess I was just thinking they would tap into the frequently referenced $10 billion launch manifest as soon as possible.
I guess then much of the $10 billion is not accessible just yet.

Launch contracts are signed years in advance.  If one wants to judge SpaceX success then look at where they were 2-3 years ago and launching now, or contracts they are signing now launching in 2-3 years.

As for revenue, Iíd expect a crew launch plus cargo to be worth more than a couple Comsats.

Also, if they were worried about revenue or profit (to a big degree) they wouldnít have just cut launch prices. 

It will interesting to hear what Gwyneth says, but I donít expect anything g revolutionary

Oh sure. Iím not concerned about SpaceXís long term profitability. Just trying to evaluate  the potential brake a (relatively) low revenue 2019 year might put on the pace of their BFR development, which Musk stated would largely be funded from F9 revenues.