Poll

Should the poll be deleted?

Yes
38 (69.1%)
No
17 (30.9%)

Total Members Voted: 55

Voting closed: 08/20/2018 03:29 PM


Author Topic: Mars - The Rest Of The Story  (Read 19914 times)

Offline Semmel

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #100 on: 05/15/2018 08:02 PM »
Got it.  I rephrased the question.   When I said Mars 2017, I was referring to IAC 2017.  Understand why that was not clear.
Thanks

Thanks, that actually makes sense now. I voted "no". Its too ambitious. Eventually they will get there but I dont see them fulfill their timeline. I would be happy if BFR/BFS assists in launching the internet constellation.

Online dglow

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #101 on: 05/15/2018 08:13 PM »
The poll is question is ambiguous for me due to the emphasis on EXECUTABLE; its wording implies too many questions for a precise, yes/no answer.


- Does SpaceX have a complete and executable plan to achieve IAC 2017's objectives?
  Yes, I believe it does.

- Will SpaceX achieve IAC 2017's objectives?
  Yes

- Will it do so on the timeline outlined at IAC 2017?
  No, likely not.

Offline testguy

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #102 on: 05/16/2018 03:25 PM »
The poll is question is ambiguous for me due to the emphasis on EXECUTABLE; its wording implies too many questions for a precise, yes/no answer.


- Does SpaceX have a complete and executable plan to achieve IAC 2017's objectives?
  Yes, I believe it does.

- Will SpaceX achieve IAC 2017's objectives?
  Yes

- Will it do so on the timeline outlined at IAC 2017?
  No, likely not.

It appears that many believe this is the correct format for the poll so I changed it.  BTW executable to me simply means that it is possible to be achieved.  Not that it will be achieved just that it is possible.

Offline envy887

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #103 on: 05/16/2018 03:39 PM »
The poll is question is ambiguous for me due to the emphasis on EXECUTABLE; its wording implies too many questions for a precise, yes/no answer.


- Does SpaceX have a complete and executable plan to achieve IAC 2017's objectives?
  Yes, I believe it does.

- Will SpaceX achieve IAC 2017's objectives?
  Yes

- Will it do so on the timeline outlined at IAC 2017?
  No, likely not.

It appears that many believe this is the correct format for the poll so I changed it.  BTW executable to me simply means that it is possible to be achieved.  Not that it will be achieved just that it is possible.

This is better, but I don't think quite captures what you want. Instead of

Quote
  - Does SpaceX have a complete and executable plan to achieve IAC 2017's objectives?  Yes, I believe it does.
  - Will SpaceX achieve IAC 2017's objectives including aspirational timeline?  Yes.
  - Will SpaceX do it on the timeline outlined at IAC 2017?  No, not likely.

It should be

Quote
Does SpaceX have a complete and executable plan to achieve IAC 2017's objectives? 
 - Yes, and SpaceX will achieve IAC 2017's objectives including aspirational timeline.
 - Yes, SpaceX has an executable plan but will NOT do it on the timeline outlined at IAC 2017.
 - No, SpaceX does not have an executable plan to achieve the goals outlined at IAC 2017 in any reasonable timeline.

Online dglow

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #104 on: 05/16/2018 04:20 PM »
Agreed. My three questions were independent, but for a single-answer multiple choice format, you need envy887's wording.
« Last Edit: 05/16/2018 04:21 PM by dglow »

Offline testguy

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #105 on: 05/16/2018 08:53 PM »
UNCLE!  The tread morphed into wording of the poll.  I changed the poll yet again to "Should the poll be deleted?  I voted yes.  Please let this poll die a peaceful death.  There are more important things to discuss.

Online dglow

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #106 on: 05/17/2018 12:34 AM »
UNCLE!  The tread morphed into wording of the poll.  I changed the poll yet again to "Should the poll be deleted?  I voted yes.  Please let this poll die a peaceful death.  There are more important things to discuss.

Well, hey, it’s nobody’s goal for you to cry ‘mercy’.  Discussions around here go meta pretty fast, and responses can sometimes feel harsh. But! In the end we, collectively, arrived at an optimal way of asking what (I think) you were trying to get at. That it took 100 posts is, er... the cost of crowd wisdom?

I suggest you reach out to a mod, have this thread locked, and start a new, fresh poll thread with a nice opening post encapsulating all that’s been clarified here, with clean wording of the poll question. I would definitely like to see the results of that poll, and am confident many others would too.  :)

Offline TomH

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #107 on: 05/18/2018 01:47 AM »
It would be sensible to bring only the size you need rather than bringing in something larger than required.

Very insightful post, thank you.

I want to comment on the last sentence only. Given that the plan is a constant upgrade and increase of flights every window too big is probably not really possible. What is not needed now will be needed in 2 or 4 years. It may well be the most efficient option to go as big as possible.

Another point to consider is how effective can ISRU be at providing mere ballast when higher weight is required for things like traction (I say weight rather than mass because Mars' lower gravity results in lower weight for the same mass where weight is actually what matters for traction.) It would seem logical to build Aluminum, Titanium, or Carbon Fiber machines for easier transport to Mars, and then ballast the things with the highest density materials that can be locally mined as ISRU. If enough water can be found and absolutely leakproof tires can be manufactured, ISRU water filled tires would be fairly high density and could be a good utilization.
« Last Edit: 05/18/2018 01:50 AM by TomH »

Offline Lar

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #108 on: 05/18/2018 02:37 AM »
I can lock it, no problem.

Get the poll question wording right first, then lock. Reach out to me if you need help creating the poll but I thkn you can handle it

remember our norms are vote first ,THEN see results, and 30-31 days for the poll to run.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline TomH

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #109 on: 05/18/2018 06:43 AM »
I am curious as to how much research they have done on Mars agriculture. I would think the most pragmatic approach would be to have a person, or working group, to first gather and consolidate research that has already been done on ISS, at universities, research labs for Ag giants like ADM, etc. I would think that if ISRU water is located, hydroponics should be of great interests. If any Mark Watney pressurized potato gardens are to be started, a lot more soil amendment will be needed other than human waste. Research needs to be done into how sterile Martian regolith can be cultured with bacteria and fungi decomposers that can recycle parts of plants that are not consumed. Plants grow best in organic humus rich soil. How do you start with regolith that has no decomposing organic matter and develop it into that type soil? On Earth, nitrogen fixing bacteria in the soil around roots are very important. As nitrogen is not in abundant supply on Mars, growing plants in that soil is going to be very different.

How will they look for various ISRU minerals that may be helpful in agriculture: sorties, satellite observation? Will farming be conducted where both minerals and water are located, or will minerals be mined and transported to Ag locations?

Getting to Mars will only require already prepared food currently used on ISS. Moving toward colonization will require serious research into Martian agriculture. I do wonder how deeply investigation and research into that field (pun only half intended) has been undertaken.
« Last Edit: 05/18/2018 06:56 AM by TomH »

Offline Bananas_on_Mars

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #110 on: 05/18/2018 07:58 AM »
My personal opinion is that SpaceX won't need anything but a functioning BFS for the 2022 timeframe. They will load the first (2) BFS with everything that is ready to be brought to mars (maybe some rovers, some solar, ISRU demonstration unit) plus bulk cargo for the rest, anything that might be of value for the first crew.

I don't think crew will follow the next synod.
My personal guess is that they intend to spark worldwide interest by being capable of flying crew to mars, and there might be no shortage of contributors worldwide, once that capability has been demonstrated. If they land crew on Mars the following synod, i don't expect they will already have a fully fuelled BFS sitting on the ground.

Once they have landed the first BFS on Mars, their efforts will shift to make ISRU work, because it's their main task once on mars to make return possible. For everything else, they will maybe coordinate efforts from external partners, but will rely on multiple contributors to make everything else besides the transportation system.

They are willing to evolve a system, and for the first mission to mars, a functioning BFS is all they need.

As a comment to heavy construction equipment mentioned before:
A proper handheld impact drill, a (electric) winch and some explosives already go a long way if you want to clear landing zones for the next spaceships etc.
Just like plowing fields during the time of steam powered machinery.

Building infrastructure can partly be done with things like sandbags.

There's no need to go the high tech route for every single thing. Improvisation and Utilisation of local resources, and tools that enable improvisation will be more important for survival on Mars than hightech specialised machinery IMO.

Online docmordrid

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #111 on: 05/18/2018 09:20 AM »
I am curious as to how much research they have done on Mars agriculture. I would think the most pragmatic approach would be to have a person, or working group, to first gather and consolidate research that has already been done on ISS, at universities, research labs for Ag giants like ADM, etc.
>

Musks brother Kimball runs Square Roots, a company which is based on promoting the growing produce in shipping containers. Akin to SNC/ORBITEC's VEGGIE on steroids.



There are also numerous automated indoor hydroponic techs which are being deployed commercially.

« Last Edit: 05/18/2018 09:33 AM by docmordrid »
DM

Offline CuddlyRocket

Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #112 on: 05/22/2018 01:12 AM »
I am curious as to how much research they have done on Mars agriculture. I would think the most pragmatic approach would be to have a person, or working group, to first gather and consolidate research that has already been done on ISS, at universities, research labs for Ag giants like ADM, etc.
>

Musks brother Kimball runs Square Roots, a company which is based on promoting the growing produce in shipping containers. Akin to SNC/ORBITEC's VEGGIE on steroids.

SpaceX had also bought produce from a local (to them) company called Local Roots, which was doing a similar thing.

Offline DistantTemple

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #113 on: 05/29/2018 12:16 AM »
I am curious as to how much research they have done on Mars agriculture. I would think the most pragmatic approach would be to have a person, or working group, to first gather and consolidate research that has already been done on ISS, at universities, research labs for Ag giants like ADM, etc.
>

Musks brother Kimball runs Square Roots, a company which is based on promoting the growing produce in shipping containers. Akin to SNC/ORBITEC's VEGGIE on steroids.

SpaceX had also bought produce from a local (to them) company called Local Roots, which was doing a similar thing.
Mushrooms are grown in unused tunnels under London UK. They would add protein, taste and variety to a Mars diet.
We can always grow new new dendrites. Reach out and make connections and your world will burst with new insights. Then repose in consciousness.

Offline laszlo

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #114 on: 05/29/2018 02:04 AM »

Mushrooms are grown in unused tunnels under London UK. They would add protein, taste and variety to a Mars diet.

The nauseating texture, smell and taste of mushrooms would be enough to put me off of colonizing the City of London, let alone an airless frozen desert. Even watney-taters sound more attractive. Please, agriculturists, find something better and save HSF.

Offline DistantTemple

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #115 on: 05/29/2018 02:35 AM »
As OP says, take it as given that 2022 cargo, 2024 crew take place:
(I'll try not to cover what is already discussed unless I have an additional opinion, or input.)
Food and farming on Mars: 2022 Dry/sealed emergency/backup rations in place as cargo. 2024, small led hydroponic/ similar "container farms" for (delicious amazing nutritious) mushrooms, herbs, and salad to add interest taste and nutrition, but not particularly calories to the Aeronauts diet, and as experiment. Bulk of calories, protein and fats delivered from earth both as astronaut style meals and dry beans, rice, flour, TVP, soya etc..

Construction materials / processes / equipment I think EM is fixated on his compacted soil bricks because he sees them as great on Mars. Concrete has drawbacks and difficulties because of temperature and low pressure. The compacted bricks displace significant concrete use. I think there will be a demo/experimental compaction plant in 2022 as results from that will inform planning for 2024. It may even be possible (ok this sounds far fetched) to robotically produce a landing pad using interlocking slabs made from compressed regolith and resin. (It is essential that at least one BFR is guaranteed undamaged and reusable for earth return.)
Concrete will work, but requires levels of protection from vacuum and cold, depending on its use, and the quality needed.
As discussed above a machine to clear paths and landing area. Possibly using opposing blades under a single vehicle to mitigate the reduced traction available. Possibly using thumping, or vibration etc to compress a surface to level.
Essential to have some demonstration of handling packages (lifting/towing) on the 2022 mission, to optimise plans for 2024. Essential to demonstrate mining ice for the same reason.
ISRU 2022 absolutely essential and has been promised that this will be included. IMO this only needs to demonstrate that it works, and not refill a BFR before 2024. Early results may allow minor modification before 2024 when (redundant) full scale implementations will be needed to function and refill at least a return ship. (OK we have been over this a lot) Getting a better picture of methane available will be important from the start as if it is available it could change the content of the 2024 mission.
Exploration This is really important, and IMO needs some kind of mission in 2020 that no one is suggesting, and at the absolute minimum would be satellites with as high quality cameras as EM can get, and remote sensing for water, methane, and other geology. As this will inform 2022, and 2024. A rover(s) would be worth every effort! If not 2020, then obviously 2022 - several satellites and rovers as discussed...
Electricity/Energy endlessly discussed... in house solar and batteries on both 2022, and 2024. Automatic(ish) deployment systems. A system for rovers to plug in and self-charge will be needed.
IMO Nuclear will be contributed by NASA with possibly an early test system by 2024, and will be completely non critical-path. Mirrors to concentrate solar energy may be used but unlikely in 2024. But possibly in 2026 for heat, electricity, and direct smelting. Especially if Nuclear is either slow, or ethically disliked.
Habitats OK EM says the BFS will be the first habitat. However it requires a lift to enter and leave, and is in a fixed location. IMO there will be a Bigelow habitat. And at least a small one will be included in 2022 so it can be already in place in case of issues in 2024. Again remote testing will inform the 2024 mission. Such a habitat is an excellent opportunity for partnering. This could be paid for by commercial suppliers as a demonstrator of ECLSS etc. and still be very useful. In 2024 a rover/habitat(s) will be essential to developing the Mars presence.
Surface habitat(s) will be essential for convenience of not climbing back to the BFS
Shielding from radiation will be needed for (an ethical) 2 year stay. So the BFS will not be adequate for long. Therefore tunneling or building will be needed to enclose a habitat. Therefore in 2022 enough prospecting and tests will have to take place to plan and select equipment for 2024. Still in 2024 a couple of solutions can be taken forward, including mining an ice cave and inserting a habitat, mining into a rock escarpment and inserting a habitat, and building strong, self supporting segments over a habitat, and burying it in material.
Metallurgy/Chemistry/Research/Manufacturing Although not "core technologies" for 2022, or 2024, IMO EM will not want to "give these away" to external industry. He will go for university and research collaboration, and maybe commercial within strict conditions. IMO EM will not want all the best resources around his first city "owned" by multinationals, or anyone else that will cramp his style. IMO he will want the "mine-to-factory-to-product" path under close control in all core areas. But in 2022 collaborating research teams can sponsor, or provide exploration rovers and experiments, and in 2024 take this to the next level with experimental extraction and processing. This will include manufacturing, both building materials and components, and replacement parts with feedstock from Earth. In 2024 a "workshop" with additive manufacturing as well as more conventional drill lathe etc CAD/CAM to keep equipment operational, and make adaptions will be needed. This is in line with SX's "try it out" ethos, and will be comfortable to SX engineers included in the mission. There will be plenty of practical maintenance skills in the team.
O2, water, have been covered elsewhere.
Thats enough for now. IMO EM is (quietly) thinking a long way ahead and lining up his chess pieces. He may not be able to put big teams on future uncertain projects, but he is very likely to be trying to avoid future bottlenecks due to lack of forethought. Tom Mueller has been working on Raptor for years, there is ECLSS in Dragon 2, ISRU is a core technology, he is lining up compressed soil bricks, and tunnelling... and satellites... Loads of things we have not seen will come out of the woodwork, ready to be at least trialled.

Edit: Mushrooms accurate descriptive vocabulary... (delicious amazing nutritious)
« Last Edit: 05/29/2018 02:44 AM by DistantTemple »
We can always grow new new dendrites. Reach out and make connections and your world will burst with new insights. Then repose in consciousness.

Offline Eric Hedman

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #116 on: 05/29/2018 03:32 AM »

Mushrooms are grown in unused tunnels under London UK. They would add protein, taste and variety to a Mars diet.

The nauseating texture, smell and taste of mushrooms would be enough to put me off of colonizing the City of London, let alone an airless frozen desert. Even watney-taters sound more attractive. Please, agriculturists, find something better and save HSF.
I doubt if there is any food universally loved by everyone.  There will have to be a variety to satisfy a variety of palates.

Offline Bananas_on_Mars

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #117 on: 05/29/2018 04:50 AM »
Of all the things you can grow on mars, mushrooms are the worst choice for starting. They don't grow on thin air, they need heaps of organic material that they will feed on, the parts you eat are only a small part of the organism, essentially only the parts needed for reproduction.

With regards to machining equipment: IMO needed to make the tools you forgot to bring (because you didn't think you'd need them), but there's no need to manufacture complex rocket parts. There will be quite a few BFS that will stay on mars at first that can be scavenged for parts.

You can possibly even use those expended BFS for habitation purposes after you've brought them to a horizontal position. Cut them in half lengthwise, cover with soil from clearing further landing zones. That gives you some protected space that could maybe be a workshop of sorts.
« Last Edit: 05/29/2018 05:10 AM by Bananas_on_Mars »

Offline guckyfan

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #118 on: 05/29/2018 05:33 AM »

Mushrooms are grown in unused tunnels under London UK. They would add protein, taste and variety to a Mars diet.

The nauseating texture, smell and taste of mushrooms would be enough to put me off of colonizing the City of London, let alone an airless frozen desert. Even watney-taters sound more attractive. Please, agriculturists, find something better and save HSF.

You may prefer meal worms then?  :)


Offline guckyfan

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #119 on: 05/29/2018 05:35 AM »
Of all the things you can grow on mars, mushrooms are the worst choice for starting. They don't grow on thin air, they need heaps of organic material that they will feed on, the parts you eat are only a small part of the organism, essentially only the parts needed for reproduction.

Not the first but as soon as there is production of vegetables. There are plenty of plant parts that can not be eaten and are suitable to grow mushrooms on.