Poll

Should the poll be deleted?

Yes
22 (64.7%)
No
12 (35.3%)

Total Members Voted: 34

Voting closes: 08/20/2018 03:29 PM


Author Topic: Mars - The Rest Of The Story  (Read 10985 times)

Offline Semmel

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #100 on: 05/15/2018 08:02 PM »
Got it.  I rephrased the question.   When I said Mars 2017, I was referring to IAC 2017.  Understand why that was not clear.
Thanks

Thanks, that actually makes sense now. I voted "no". Its too ambitious. Eventually they will get there but I dont see them fulfill their timeline. I would be happy if BFR/BFS assists in launching the internet constellation.

Offline dglow

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #101 on: 05/15/2018 08:13 PM »
The poll is question is ambiguous for me due to the emphasis on EXECUTABLE; its wording implies too many questions for a precise, yes/no answer.


- Does SpaceX have a complete and executable plan to achieve IAC 2017's objectives?
  Yes, I believe it does.

- Will SpaceX achieve IAC 2017's objectives?
  Yes

- Will it do so on the timeline outlined at IAC 2017?
  No, likely not.

Offline testguy

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #102 on: 05/16/2018 03:25 PM »
The poll is question is ambiguous for me due to the emphasis on EXECUTABLE; its wording implies too many questions for a precise, yes/no answer.


- Does SpaceX have a complete and executable plan to achieve IAC 2017's objectives?
  Yes, I believe it does.

- Will SpaceX achieve IAC 2017's objectives?
  Yes

- Will it do so on the timeline outlined at IAC 2017?
  No, likely not.

It appears that many believe this is the correct format for the poll so I changed it.  BTW executable to me simply means that it is possible to be achieved.  Not that it will be achieved just that it is possible.

Offline envy887

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #103 on: 05/16/2018 03:39 PM »
The poll is question is ambiguous for me due to the emphasis on EXECUTABLE; its wording implies too many questions for a precise, yes/no answer.


- Does SpaceX have a complete and executable plan to achieve IAC 2017's objectives?
  Yes, I believe it does.

- Will SpaceX achieve IAC 2017's objectives?
  Yes

- Will it do so on the timeline outlined at IAC 2017?
  No, likely not.

It appears that many believe this is the correct format for the poll so I changed it.  BTW executable to me simply means that it is possible to be achieved.  Not that it will be achieved just that it is possible.

This is better, but I don't think quite captures what you want. Instead of

Quote
  - Does SpaceX have a complete and executable plan to achieve IAC 2017's objectives?  Yes, I believe it does.
  - Will SpaceX achieve IAC 2017's objectives including aspirational timeline?  Yes.
  - Will SpaceX do it on the timeline outlined at IAC 2017?  No, not likely.

It should be

Quote
Does SpaceX have a complete and executable plan to achieve IAC 2017's objectives? 
 - Yes, and SpaceX will achieve IAC 2017's objectives including aspirational timeline.
 - Yes, SpaceX has an executable plan but will NOT do it on the timeline outlined at IAC 2017.
 - No, SpaceX does not have an executable plan to achieve the goals outlined at IAC 2017 in any reasonable timeline.

Offline dglow

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #104 on: 05/16/2018 04:20 PM »
Agreed. My three questions were independent, but for a single-answer multiple choice format, you need envy887's wording.
« Last Edit: 05/16/2018 04:21 PM by dglow »

Offline testguy

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #105 on: 05/16/2018 08:53 PM »
UNCLE!  The tread morphed into wording of the poll.  I changed the poll yet again to "Should the poll be deleted?  I voted yes.  Please let this poll die a peaceful death.  There are more important things to discuss.

Offline dglow

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #106 on: 05/17/2018 12:34 AM »
UNCLE!  The tread morphed into wording of the poll.  I changed the poll yet again to "Should the poll be deleted?  I voted yes.  Please let this poll die a peaceful death.  There are more important things to discuss.

Well, hey, it’s nobody’s goal for you to cry ‘mercy’.  Discussions around here go meta pretty fast, and responses can sometimes feel harsh. But! In the end we, collectively, arrived at an optimal way of asking what (I think) you were trying to get at. That it took 100 posts is, er... the cost of crowd wisdom?

I suggest you reach out to a mod, have this thread locked, and start a new, fresh poll thread with a nice opening post encapsulating all that’s been clarified here, with clean wording of the poll question. I would definitely like to see the results of that poll, and am confident many others would too.  :)

Offline TomH

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #107 on: 05/18/2018 01:47 AM »
It would be sensible to bring only the size you need rather than bringing in something larger than required.

Very insightful post, thank you.

I want to comment on the last sentence only. Given that the plan is a constant upgrade and increase of flights every window too big is probably not really possible. What is not needed now will be needed in 2 or 4 years. It may well be the most efficient option to go as big as possible.

Another point to consider is how effective can ISRU be at providing mere ballast when higher weight is required for things like traction (I say weight rather than mass because Mars' lower gravity results in lower weight for the same mass where weight is actually what matters for traction.) It would seem logical to build Aluminum, Titanium, or Carbon Fiber machines for easier transport to Mars, and then ballast the things with the highest density materials that can be locally mined as ISRU. If enough water can be found and absolutely leakproof tires can be manufactured, ISRU water filled tires would be fairly high density and could be a good utilization.
« Last Edit: 05/18/2018 01:50 AM by TomH »

Offline Lar

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #108 on: 05/18/2018 02:37 AM »
I can lock it, no problem.

Get the poll question wording right first, then lock. Reach out to me if you need help creating the poll but I thkn you can handle it

remember our norms are vote first ,THEN see results, and 30-31 days for the poll to run.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline TomH

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #109 on: 05/18/2018 06:43 AM »
I am curious as to how much research they have done on Mars agriculture. I would think the most pragmatic approach would be to have a person, or working group, to first gather and consolidate research that has already been done on ISS, at universities, research labs for Ag giants like ADM, etc. I would think that if ISRU water is located, hydroponics should be of great interests. If any Mark Watney pressurized potato gardens are to be started, a lot more soil amendment will be needed other than human waste. Research needs to be done into how sterile Martian regolith can be cultured with bacteria and fungi decomposers that can recycle parts of plants that are not consumed. Plants grow best in organic humus rich soil. How do you start with regolith that has no decomposing organic matter and develop it into that type soil? On Earth, nitrogen fixing bacteria in the soil around roots are very important. As nitrogen is not in abundant supply on Mars, growing plants in that soil is going to be very different.

How will they look for various ISRU minerals that may be helpful in agriculture: sorties, satellite observation? Will farming be conducted where both minerals and water are located, or will minerals be mined and transported to Ag locations?

Getting to Mars will only require already prepared food currently used on ISS. Moving toward colonization will require serious research into Martian agriculture. I do wonder how deeply investigation and research into that field (pun only half intended) has been undertaken.
« Last Edit: 05/18/2018 06:56 AM by TomH »

Offline Bananas_on_Mars

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #110 on: 05/18/2018 07:58 AM »
My personal opinion is that SpaceX won't need anything but a functioning BFS for the 2022 timeframe. They will load the first (2) BFS with everything that is ready to be brought to mars (maybe some rovers, some solar, ISRU demonstration unit) plus bulk cargo for the rest, anything that might be of value for the first crew.

I don't think crew will follow the next synod.
My personal guess is that they intend to spark worldwide interest by being capable of flying crew to mars, and there might be no shortage of contributors worldwide, once that capability has been demonstrated. If they land crew on Mars the following synod, i don't expect they will already have a fully fuelled BFS sitting on the ground.

Once they have landed the first BFS on Mars, their efforts will shift to make ISRU work, because it's their main task once on mars to make return possible. For everything else, they will maybe coordinate efforts from external partners, but will rely on multiple contributors to make everything else besides the transportation system.

They are willing to evolve a system, and for the first mission to mars, a functioning BFS is all they need.

As a comment to heavy construction equipment mentioned before:
A proper handheld impact drill, a (electric) winch and some explosives already go a long way if you want to clear landing zones for the next spaceships etc.
Just like plowing fields during the time of steam powered machinery.

Building infrastructure can partly be done with things like sandbags.

There's no need to go the high tech route for every single thing. Improvisation and Utilisation of local resources, and tools that enable improvisation will be more important for survival on Mars than hightech specialised machinery IMO.

Online docmordrid

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #111 on: 05/18/2018 09:20 AM »
I am curious as to how much research they have done on Mars agriculture. I would think the most pragmatic approach would be to have a person, or working group, to first gather and consolidate research that has already been done on ISS, at universities, research labs for Ag giants like ADM, etc.
>

Musks brother Kimball runs Square Roots, a company which is based on promoting the growing produce in shipping containers. Akin to SNC/ORBITEC's VEGGIE on steroids.



There are also numerous automated indoor hydroponic techs which are being deployed commercially.

« Last Edit: 05/18/2018 09:33 AM by docmordrid »
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