Author Topic: SpaceX to increase price of cargo delivery to space station by 50%  (Read 62069 times)

Offline Bender

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I have to say this surprised me. With the block 5 bringing more reusability, I thought prices would at least stay the same, not increase so much.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/04/nasa-to-pay-more-for-less-cargo-delivery-to-the-space-station/

Quote
One of the main reasons for this increase, the report says, is a 50-percent increase in prices from SpaceX,

Quote
the inspector general’s report notes the following about SpaceX’s reasoning: “They also indicated that their CRS-2 pricing reflected a better understanding of the costs involved after several years of experience with cargo resupply missions.” This suggests the company either under-bid on the first round of supply contracts or failed to achieve some of the cost savings it had hoped to achieve.
« Last Edit: 05/03/2018 02:05 pm by Chris Bergin »

Offline vaporcobra

Just finished my read-through of the OIG report and made the exact same observations. What the hell, SpaceX?

BTW, pretty sure this is better off in the Dragon 2 thread.
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41016.1120

Offline high road

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I don't agree on merging this thread. The company supposed to allow people to go to Mars for peanuts increasing their prices by 50pct? Pretty significant.

Goes to show that even when their costs drop, SpaceX will still charge market prices, especially when they are the only ones that can bring back payload.

Not necessarily a bad thing. SpaceX will do more with this extra profit than NASA would.
« Last Edit: 04/27/2018 06:06 am by high road »

Offline Semmel

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That is really surprising. Must say I am a bit disappointed. I can easily see how the lack of propulsive landing made D2 more expensive. Simply a result of the more expensive re-use procedure. Still I did not expect that kind of jump in prices. :(

Offline Hauerg

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It is called „commercial“ for a reason.

Offline meberbs

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The 50% increase needs to be put in some perspective.

Dragon missions have not maxed out on weight in the past due to volume restrictions. There is a 30% increase in volume. It also appears that inflation is not accounted for. From 2012 to 2017, that would be about 6.6%, a better set of years may be initial contract award, so 2008 to 2016, which is over 11%. These increases combine multiplicatively, so 1.5/(1.3*1.066) = about 8% increase, using the other inflation number, it is less than a 4% increase.

That isn't quite fair on its own, and maybe the whole 30% shouldn't be counted as increased cargo mass, but that is as good as can be done without better knowledge of how the numbers in the article were calculated. For example, the article has a table that indicates an option for reused boosters. This implies there is a price difference for those, and we don't know what assumptions about that option were included in the numbers in the article.

Offline jpo234

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... especially when they are the only ones that can bring back payload.

Dreamchaser can bring down 1750kg.
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Offline vapour_nudge

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We shouldn’t be surprised. Musk has no obligation to keep the prices down and a commercial company would be expected to maximise profit. If they are cheaper and successfully wipe out the competition (eventually) then it would seem natural that they could then increase pricing in a monopolised market. Smart move and not unexpected
« Last Edit: 04/27/2018 07:51 am by vapour_nudge »

Offline speedevil

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I wonder what part of the change in costs is specifically the change in contract form allowing NASA more input in what is acceptable.

Offline mgeagon

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So, CRS 1 cost NASA $150 million per Dragon 1 mission. I guess that means Dragon 2 missions will cost $225 million? About the same as the now cheaper Cygnus? For 30% more pressurized cargo and fast docking? It appears to me that NASA is getting one heck of a bargain.

Mark Eagon

Offline su27k

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It's the lower flight rate caused by using 3 providers instead of 2. The report pdf page 41 to 42 shows the impact on flight rate by having 3 instead 2 providers, SpaceX's flight rate is reduced from 3 per year to 2 per year. Plug in their $150M per flight for CRS-1, total per year is $450M, divided by 2 gives $225M per flight, which fits 50% increase perfectly.

Also remember in CRS-1 contract SpaceX was awarded 12 flights, this time they're only awarded 6.

Moral of the story: Flight rate is important, if NASA wants a 3rd provider they have to pay a price for reduced flight rate.

Offline rpapo

... especially when they are the only ones that can bring back payload.

Dreamchaser can bring down 1750kg.
Not until it is actually launching.  Dragon and Cygnus are real and flying, and have been for years.  DreamChaser not quite yet.
« Last Edit: 04/27/2018 10:59 am by rpapo »
Following the space program since before Apollo 8.

Offline john smith 19

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It's the lower flight rate caused by using 3 providers instead of 2. The report pdf page 41 to 42 shows the impact on flight rate by having 3 instead 2 providers, SpaceX's flight rate is reduced from 3 per year to 2 per year. Plug in their $150M per flight for CRS-1, total per year is $450M, divided by 2 gives $225M per flight, which fits 50% increase perfectly.

Also remember in CRS-1 contract SpaceX was awarded 12 flights, this time they're only awarded 6.

Moral of the story: Flight rate is important, if NASA wants a 3rd provider they have to pay a price for reduced flight rate.
This sort of pricing is how weapons are sold.  It's used where the customer (IE the DoD) is paying all startup costs. This is the reason when you hear a design has been cancelled (Like the B70) of "Billion dollar aircraft," because the whole price of the programme drops on the only 2 aircraft that got built, rather than the production run of whatever numbers were planned.

Everywhere else if 1 launch is $150m and NASA only buys 2 launches then SX get $300m.

It's pretty clear a)This contract is priced to keep Orbital in the game. b) SX will be laughing all the way to the bank. c) Right now SX has no effective competition for down mass except Soyuz.
Which means they don't have any effective competition to lower their NASA prices for down mass.

Just another demonstration of why launch services economics are insane by the standards of every other form of transport on the planet.
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Offline Robotbeat

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It’s not a cost-plus contract. That means SpaceX can charge higher prices.

But it’s not the same service: the risk premium is now much smaller than it was.
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Offline AncientU

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Reasons for cost increases provided by SpaceX on p28:
Quote
SpaceX officials said its increased prices are due to new CRS-2 contract terms that required a redesign of the spacecraft’s interior to increase the useable cargo volume by 30 percent, longer duration missions, accelerated cargo loading and unloading time frames, and quicker access to time-critical research cargo after the Dragon 2 returns to Earth.  They also indicated that their CRS-2 pricing reflected a better understanding of the costs involved after several years of experience with cargo resupply missions.  Further, they said their proposed prices took into account the uncertainty at the time of providing fixed per-mission pricing without knowing whether NASA wanted them to fly the Dragon 1 or Dragon 2, which would require keeping open two production lines.  Other factors, such as the new requirement for contractors to carry up to $100 million worth of insurance per flight and reduced discounts due to fewer missions flown contributed to SpaceX’s increased CRS-2 pricing.
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Offline envy887

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We shouldn’t be surprised. Musk has no obligation to keep the prices down and a commercial company would be expected to maximise profit. If they are cheaper and successfully wipe out the competition (eventually) then it would seem natural that they could then increase pricing in a monopolised market. Smart move and not unexpected

It's not a monopolized market, it's a competitive market where SpaceX was charging less than market rate for CRS-1. They are now charging market rate. SpaceX has said several times that they underestimated the costs for CRS-1.

Also, the CRS-2 contract still requires all-new boosters, which probably adds a significant cost (or more precisely, a cost risk) given that SpaceX is planning on making fewer boosters and reusing them more often. NASA can still negotiate for reused boosters on CRS-2, and OIG recommended that NASA request a discounted cost rather than extra services in return for allowing used boosters.

Quote from: OIG report
While both CRS-1 and CRS-2 contracts require a new Falcon 9 for all missions, both contracts provide NASA with the option to use a previously flown booster for a specific mission if the Agency determines the launch presents an acceptable level of risk for cargo resupply missions. For SpX-13, the Agency received contractor in-kind contributions – such as accommodations for external payloads and manifest changes – to reconcile the cost difference between a new and previously flown booster. For CRS-2, NASA could receive a marginal discount on per-mission pricing if the Agency opts to use a previously flown booster for a mission.

Offline woods170

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Just finished my read-through of the OIG report and made the exact same observations. What the hell, SpaceX?


You clearly failed to comprehend the reasons given for the increase as stated on page 22 of the report.
« Last Edit: 04/27/2018 02:07 pm by woods170 »

Offline Darkseraph

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Is it too early to say 'Jim Was Right!' ?
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Offline woods170

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Is it too early to say 'Jim Was Right!' ?

Jim was right when he stated that much of the price increase was of NASA’s own doing.

Offline rcoppola

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"Breaking News: Company charges more for a better product! Customer requirement uncertainties cause cost increases!" Story at 11:00...
« Last Edit: 04/27/2018 02:31 pm by rcoppola »
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