Author Topic: FAILURE: Soyuz-FG - Soyuz MS-10 - October 11, 2018 - Baikonur (UPDATES)  (Read 160279 times)

Offline centaurinasa

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Kenny Todd: In terms of consumables, we are in a reliable situation…
« Last Edit: 10/11/2018 04:47 pm by centaurinasa »
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Offline Chris Bergin

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Online zubenelgenubi

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Kenny Todd: "In terms of consumables, we are in a reliable situation…"

Part of answer to question about status of Progress flights.  Noted that HTV-7 recently brought a substantial amount of supplies.  Also upcoming USOS supply flights (upcoming Cygnus and Dragon deliveries).

If there are particular, needed items manifested aboard a Progress that can be shifted to another supply vehicle, they will attempt to accommodate.
« Last Edit: 10/11/2018 04:51 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline Chris Bergin

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Offline Craig_VG

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High res shots of the anomaly by Bill Ingalls

Offline SkipMorrow

I think we can see the launch abort system firing here:

At exactly 3:41, you see a short flash in front of the rocket. For best effect, pause the video and then use the comma key and period key on your keyboard to move frame-by-frame.



They then cut to the interior, which I think might be a few seconds behind the exterior short. Everything is fine inside and then it all starts going crazy, with a lot of video break up. I think that was when the LAS fired.

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NASA TV playing video of crew returining to Baikonur, followed by interviews with Bridenstine and Rogozin.
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Offline Kansan52

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LAS reportedly detached before then (at MECO). The Soyuz capsule engines pulling them away is likely explanation for vibrations seen.

Offline SciNews

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Offline russianhalo117

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Latest including a report of telemetry analysis findings from the initial review of data:

http://russianspaceweb.com/soyuz-ms-10.html
Quote
Investigation into the Soyuz MS-10 launch accident

According to Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov, quoted by TASS, the emergency escape system was activated at T+123 seconds in flight. If this is correct, the escape began after the separation of the emergency rockets and the first stage. There were also reports claiming T+119 and T+122 seconds as the moment of activation for the emergency escape process. At the time, the vehicle was flying at an altitude of around 50 kilometers.

Head of emergency services in Kazakhstan Vladimir Bekker was quoted by RIA Novosti news agency as saying that 24 Russian teams had been dispatched to search for debris from the accident. Bekker said that there had been no reports of injuries or property damage from the accident, which had taken place away from populated areas.

The agency also quoted industry sources as saying that telemetry analysis had pointed toward possible pyrotechnics separation problem between the first and second stage. According to industry sources quoted on the Novosti Kosmonavtiki web forum, the pressurization membrane on one of the strap-on boosters of the first stage failed to open as scheduled to push it away from the second stage during separation and it led to the collision of the empty booster with the firing second stage and damaging or pushing it off course.

Following the "avariya" (accident) signal, which was displayed on the crew's console inside Soyuz, four RDG solid motors on the payload fairing protecting the spacecraft were activated automatically and separated the retrievable payload section, OGB, including the Descent Module with the crew and the Habitation Module, from the rest of the rocket at T+122 seconds. Next, at T+160 seconds, the Descent Module was separated from the OGB stack and the capsule then entered a free fall, heading for reentry into the Earth's atmosphere. Around that time, the crew (on the advice from mission control), activated the ballistic descent mode. The successful touchdown took place around half an hour after liftoff, NASA officials said. However, mission control in Houston had some period of communications blockout, which apparently racked some nerves.
« Last Edit: 10/11/2018 07:33 pm by russianhalo117 »

Offline jcm

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https://twitter.com/ChrisG_NSF/status/1050421295672741889

Wow 34 minutes is much longer that I would expect. Would be good to query and get confirmation on that figure.
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Second stage in Russian terms being the core booster.

Latest including a report of telemetry analysis findings from the initial review of data:

http://russianspaceweb.com/soyuz-ms-10.html
Quote
Investigation into the Soyuz MS-10 launch accident

According to Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov, quoted by TASS, the emergency escape system was activated at T+123 seconds in flight. If this is correct, the escape began after the separation of the emergency rockets and the first stage. There were also reports claiming T+119 and T+122 seconds as the moment of activation for the emergency escape process. At the time, the vehicle was flying at an altitude of around 50 kilometers.

Head of emergency services in Kazakhstan Vladimir Bekker was quoted by RIA Novosti news agency as saying that 24 Russian teams had been dispatched to search for debris from the accident. Bekker said that there had been no reports of injuries or property damage from the accident, which had taken place away from populated areas.

The agency also quoted industry sources as saying that telemetry analysis had pointed toward possible pyrotechnics separation problem between the first and second stage. According to industry sources quoted on the Novosti Kosmonavtiki web forum, the pressurization membrane on one of the strap-on boosters of the first stage failed to open as scheduled to push it away from the second stage during separation and it led to the collision of the empty booster with the firing second stage and damaging or pushing it off course.

Offline jcm

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Wow 34 minutes is much longer that I would expect. Would be good to query and get confirmation on that figure.
There's quite a bit of vertical velocity built up at this point that has to be zeroed out by gravity before the capsule begins its descent.  If the incident happened at 50km, what would the apogee be?  I have no idea but would imagine it to be quite a bit higher.

I am guessing around 80 km. I could see 5 min coast to apogee and back to entry; going a lot slower than
an orbit entry, but it's true it takes about 20 min from entry to landing normally. So I could see 25 min
or even 30 min but 34 min seems really long.
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Offline jcm

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Wow 34 minutes is much longer that I would expect. Would be good to query and get confirmation on that figure.
There's quite a bit of vertical velocity built up at this point that has to be zeroed out by gravity before the capsule begins its descent.  If the incident happened at 50km, what would the apogee be?  I have no idea but would imagine it to be quite a bit higher.

I am guessing around 80 km. I could see 5 min coast to apogee and back to entry; going a lot slower than
an orbit entry, but it's true it takes about 20 min from entry to landing normally. So I could see 25 min
or even 30 min but 34 min seems really long.

I'll note the Apr 1975 failure which happened much higher was only 22 min launch to landing; 16 min abort to landing.  20 g deceleration!
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Offline Norm38

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Offline Mapperuo

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Video of crew returning:

- Aaron

Offline Alexphysics

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I think we can see the launch abort system firing here:

At exactly 3:41, you see a short flash in front of the rocket. For best effect, pause the video and then use the comma key and period key on your keyboard to move frame-by-frame.



They then cut to the interior, which I think might be a few seconds behind the exterior short. Everything is fine inside and then it all starts going crazy, with a lot of video break up. I think that was when the LAS fired.

That is the escape tower being jettisoned prior to booster sep which is a few seconds later, the flight was going how it had to go when this happened. At booster sep, on a nominal flight, the g loads go down and you can notice that on the position of the astronauts because they move forward after that. In this case that happened too but the booster sep went wrong so just a second later the LES kicked in which, at this point of the flight, it involves the thrusters on the shroud firing and pulling away the capsule from the rocket. This can be seen on the pictures from Alexander Gerst. The first one shows exactly that moment when the LES kicks in. You can see the distortion on the rocket's exhaust on the lower part that is caused by the nominal separation of the escape tower but then at the point when we should see a second distorsion on the exhaust due to the boosters separating, there's that big cloud that then extends upwards on the second picture and that makes me think it is the cloud exhaust from the thrusters on the shroud firing to put away the capsule. Then on the third picture you don't see that but the capsule is on the higher part of the picture, safe and away from the rocket.

Offline ChrisC

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Now that a discussion thread has been set up (thanks Norm38 for pointing it out), I've edited that link into my earlier post and am reposting there.  Please take discussion to one of the discussion posts!

Updates only from this point please.

UPDATES ONLY HERE PLEASE.  Here are links to a few relevant discussion threads:

FAILURE: Soyuz MS-10 - October 11, 2018 - Baikonur (DISCUSSION)
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46546.0


Implications of Soyuz MS-10 launch failure on ISS, crew rotation,Commercial Crew
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46541.0

SpaceX Falcon 9 / Dragon 2 : SpX-DM1 : Jan. 2019 : General Thread
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36966.msg1866153#msg1866153

Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=37802.msg1866098#msg1866098

EDIT: added new discussion thread, thanks Norm38
« Last Edit: 10/11/2018 07:39 pm by ChrisC »
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Offline DaveJSC

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What a day. I was on this shift and you can see me in some of the screenshots. Our first word was the call to the FD of abort and that call back to the controllers to enter contingency. It is mostly out of our control, but I never thought we'd have this during a Soyuz launch.

Amazing to catch up with how you guys say it. Thank you Chris and his team and I hope you all appreciate this site and join the excellent L2. Chris didn't pay me to say that.   :D

Offline Mapperuo

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The briefing for those who missed it.
- Aaron

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