Author Topic: Bezos chats up NRO  (Read 10624 times)

Offline noogie

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Re: Bezos chats up NRO
« Reply #40 on: 06/24/2018 01:12 AM »

ULA's only remaining asset then is a good ops team and familiarity with government customers.

An expendable can compete with a reusable only if it's the only second choice the government has.

If BO is feeling confident they might get ULA in order to help with the competition against SpaceX.

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What are the liabilities that would come with ULA  -pensions? Environmental cleanups?
Does he want a unionised workforce?
It may be more worthwhile to poach staff or buy just the divisions that you want rather than the whole company.
Acquhires of old companies (and ULA includes the old LM and Boeing/McDonnell Douglas heritage both good and bad) don't seem to be as common than for newer companies, probably because of the legacy costs.
« Last Edit: 06/24/2018 01:13 AM by noogie »

Offline johnfwhitesell

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Re: Bezos chats up NRO
« Reply #41 on: 06/24/2018 01:42 AM »
At that point, say 2020-2021, ULA will likely have insufficient commercial business to make the business case close...

NASA CRS2 alone is more business for Vulcan then everything announced for New Glenn to date.  Commercial Crew missions are even more valuable then that.  Then they have Delta launches once a year out to 2023, at like 350 million a pop.  Upwards of a billion dollars in revenues a year and we haven't even talked about non governmental customers.  With internet constellations getting added to the existing launch market there should be quite a lot of money sloshing around.  At least some of that constellation business is shunning SpaceX and New Glenn will not be launching in sufficient volume to serve these before their licences expire so they will have to launch on Vulcan, Ariane or something ex-Soviet.  It's hard to see Vulcan not either getting a share of that business or eating up the traditional GTO satellite market while everyone else is serving the constellations.  So between the lucrative contracts they have and the contracts in play they should be launching as fast as they can build.

It feels to me like there is a bit of a self sustaining cycle of expectations in play here.  Everyone knows that reusable rockets are the future.  So at some point in the future, launches of large satellites on expendable systems should stop.  This much is fairly sound logic.  The problem is that because of this long term logic, people become confident in reusable rockets and make bold predictions, which fuels more confidence which fuels more bold predictions.  People are talking like in 2021 New Glenn is going to be a reusable rocket doing dozens of launches.  That's highly improbable.  2025 is a date I would believe for that.  And there are 4 years in between those dates in which other systems are going to be changing as well.

Offline meekGee

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Re: Bezos chats up NRO
« Reply #42 on: 06/24/2018 02:22 AM »

ULA's only remaining asset then is a good ops team and familiarity with government customers.

An expendable can compete with a reusable only if it's the only second choice the government has.

If BO is feeling confident they might get ULA in order to help with the competition against SpaceX.

-----
ABCD: Always Be Counting Down

What are the liabilities that would come with ULA  -pensions? Environmental cleanups?
Does he want a unionised workforce?
It may be more worthwhile to poach staff or buy just the divisions that you want rather than the whole company.
Acquhires of old companies (and ULA includes the old LM and Boeing/McDonnell Douglas heritage both good and bad) don't seem to be as common than for newer companies, probably because of the legacy costs.
Yeah that's a good point

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ABCD: Always Be Counting Down

ABCD - Always Be Counting Down

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