SpaceX F9 : Crew Dragon In-Flight Abort Test : Jan. 19, 2020 : Discussion

[gongora]

Is this date firm?  Are we actually into the countdown?  T-20 days.

I wouldn't count on it being firm yet.

[vaporcobra]

Is this date firm?  Are we actually into the countdown?  T-20 days.

I wouldn't count on it being firm yet.

No launch date 20+ days out is ever really firm - agreed in that regard. However, IFA's date is definitely much firmer than Demo-1's was after the first specific date announcement (NET Jan 17 2019 as of December 18 2018)

[gongora]

It's slipped almost two weeks in the last three weeks, so...    At least it's converging.

[intelati]

It's slipped almost two weeks in the last three weeks, so...    At least it's converging.

Hey, I'd say Elon time is much better than NASA time...

All I ask is that the slipped time is less than the true elapsed time.

[SteveU]

It's slipped almost two weeks in the last three weeks, so...    At least it's converging.

Does anyone have any insight as to why the launch date keeps slipping?

[Svetoslav]

It almost seems like the "February launch date" slip of the tongue is turning out to be kinda true...

[ZachS09]

It almost seems like the "February launch date" slip of the tongue is turning out to be kinda true...

Where are you getting the info about a slip to February?

[Confusador]

It almost seems like the "February launch date" slip of the tongue is turning out to be kinda true...

Where are you getting the info about a slip to February?

He's not.  During the CRS-19 webcast a presenter mistakenly said February, but at that time it was still planned for December (February may have been an internal targeting date for DM-2).  A slip by more than a month at that point would have been surprising.  Slipping one week at a time until it ends up in February shouldn't surprise anyone in this business, and the fact that we're halfway there is what ZachS09 is referencing.  Hopefully it doesn't go that far, but like others on this thread I'd personally be very surprised to see it happen on the 11th.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/nasa_nerd/status/1212072627004727297

Looking like #Space In Flight Abort of Crew Dragon is still targetting Jan 11th with a preferred launch time of 8am.  Launch Hazard Area also included.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Visualisation of launch hazard areas

https://twitter.com/raul74cz/status/1212197735820083200

NOTMAR Launch Hazard Areas of In-Flight Abort Test for Jan 11 13:00 UTC (alternatively Jan 12 or 13). Expected F9 breakup after abort followed by debris splashdown. #CrewDragon landing 31km downrange. Orange area for off-nominal F9 intact impact. bit.do/LHA10

[Comga]

Visualisation of launch hazard areas

https://twitter.com/raul74cz/status/1212197735820083200

NOTMAR Launch Hazard Areas of In-Flight Abort Test for Jan 11 13:00 UTC (alternatively Jan 12 or 13). Expected F9 breakup after abort followed by debris splashdown. #CrewDragon landing 31km downrange. Orange area for off-nominal F9 intact impact. bit.do/LHA10

There is a post upthread that shows the potential debris field concentrated just off shore. The capsule is also supposed to come down within a few miles of the launch site.
To what does the far off-shore rectangle in Raul’s new map correspond?  The booster impact if it doesn’t break up?

[soltasto]

Visualisation of launch hazard areas

https://twitter.com/raul74cz/status/1212197735820083200

NOTMAR Launch Hazard Areas of In-Flight Abort Test for Jan 11 13:00 UTC (alternatively Jan 12 or 13). Expected F9 breakup after abort followed by debris splashdown. #CrewDragon landing 31km downrange. Orange area for off-nominal F9 intact impact. bit.do/LHA10

There is a post upthread that shows the potential debris field concentrated just off shore. The capsule is also supposed to come down within a few miles of the launch site.
To what does the far off-shore rectangle in Raul’s new map correspond?  The booster impact if it doesn’t break up?

Yes, from his tweet:

Orange area for off-nominal F9 intact impact.

[SeaRaven]

Visualisation of launch hazard areas

https://twitter.com/raul74cz/status/1212197735820083200

NOTMAR Launch Hazard Areas of In-Flight Abort Test for Jan 11 13:00 UTC (alternatively Jan 12 or 13). Expected F9 breakup after abort followed by debris splashdown. #CrewDragon landing 31km downrange. Orange area for off-nominal F9 intact impact. bit.do/LHA10

There is a post upthread that shows the potential debris field concentrated just off shore. The capsule is also supposed to come down within a few miles of the launch site.
To what does the far off-shore rectangle in Raul’s new map correspond?  The booster impact if it doesn’t break up?

Yes, from his tweet:

Orange area for off-nominal F9 intact impact.

Is there any EIA if both S1 and S2  make it down in one piece?  There's going to be in the order of 34,000 liters (one large fuel tanker truck worth) of RP1 floating in the water.  Not sure the turtles or dolphins are going to appreciate that once it's spread out a mile or so. Trigger Self Destruct if its looking like it's going to hit the water like a telephone pole?

Jet's can dump fuel before landing, which vaporizes before reaching the ground, and is spread over a long flight path, military jets can dump and flame using the afterburner/reheat, but really a pink shower is not possible in rockets.

[Herb Schaltegger]

First off, not all aircraft can dump fuel. That’s dependent on the aircraft model, (sometimes optional) on-board fuel management equipment, and local air traffic regulations regarding allowable areas for dumping. 

But that is a complete aside - SpaceX has said (and they should know) that the booster is expected to break up after the abort. If it does not, however, it will impact in the area described in the NOTMAR - the remaining prop load will include LOX, making it likely there will a conflagration which will burn off most of the remaining kerosene.

[edzieba]

That would only happen in the extremely unlikely event that the RP1 tank is ruptured but the LOX tank remains intact. If both remain intact then you deal with the floating rocket body as with B1032-2 (SES-16). If both rupture, then you have a mix of LOX, RP-1 and energy, so a pretty good guarantee of burnup.

::EDIT:: Ninja'd by Herb.

[ugordan]

If I understand how a F9 stage is structurally built, as long as the LOX tank loses pressure (whether due to aero-breakup or deliberate termination by venting it as in F9R-Dev1), it will also lead to a structural failure of the RP-1 tank due to common bulkhead inverting itself and it should result in a fireball or at least rapid dispersion of propellants at altitude.

Whether the actual IFA stage will break up in flight, my money is it will. Once it's uncontrollable, the AoA will increase while still in the high-Q regime, it will "want" to topple around engine-first. If it doesn't disintegrate by some miracle and it "stabilizes" engine-first on the way down from apogee, I'd still expect a big boom once it hits the ocean. The past stages exploded after toppling from a soft touchdown and a high speed impact will do its thing.

[codav]

From what I've read in the environmental impact report, they expect the first stage to start tumbling after engine shutdown, and the sidewards wind load then snapping the rocket apart. This may lead to propellants mixing and combusting, but could also just create a white vapor cloud and some debris.

[CyndyC]

From what I've read in the environmental impact report, they expect the first stage to start tumbling after engine shutdown, and the sidewards wind load then snapping the rocket apart. This may lead to propellants mixing and combusting, but could also just create a white vapor cloud and some debris.

Are you or they certain it will tumble and not just flip?

[ugordan]

From what I've read in the environmental impact report, they expect the first stage to start tumbling after engine shutdown, and the sidewards wind load then snapping the rocket apart. This may lead to propellants mixing and combusting, but could also just create a white vapor cloud and some debris.

Are you or they certain it will tumble and not just flip?

It will have a lot of remaining propellant onboard after 80 seconds so the CoG will not be severely skewed toward the engine section so it will definitely not be a dart-like situation trending toward engine first stable flight. Moreso with the fact the 2nd stage will still be fully loaded. I kinda expect the aeroloads to first rip off the 2nd stage off of the stack and then the 1st stage will tumble until it breaks up.

[CyndyC]

From what I've read in the environmental impact report, they expect the first stage to start tumbling after engine shutdown, and the sidewards wind load then snapping the rocket apart. This may lead to propellants mixing and combusting, but could also just create a white vapor cloud and some debris.

Are you or they certain it will tumble and not just flip?

It will have a lot of remaining propellant onboard after 80 seconds so the CoG will not be severely skewed toward the engine section so it will definitely not be a dart-like situation trending toward engine first stable flight. Moreso with the fact the 2nd stage will still be fully loaded. I kinda expect the aeroloads to first rip off the 2nd stage off of the stack and then the 1st stage will tumble until it breaks up.

That would be a sight to see! Can a video camera get anywhere close to something like that? Edit: If so, SpaceX will probably do it