Poll

When will the first BFS be unveiled?

June 2018 or earlier
2 (1.4%)
July 2018
3 (2.1%)
August 2018
1 (0.7%)
September 2018
6 (4.2%)
October 2018
15 (10.6%)
November 2018
2 (1.4%)
December 2018
10 (7%)
January 2019
5 (3.5%)
February 2019
8 (5.6%)
March 2019
16 (11.3%)
April 2019
9 (6.3%)
May 2019
7 (4.9%)
June 2019
9 (6.3%)
July 2019
2 (1.4%)
August 2019
7 (4.9%)
September 2019
5 (3.5%)
October 2019 or later
30 (21.1%)
Never
5 (3.5%)

Total Members Voted: 142

Voting closed: 04/10/2018 11:47 PM


Author Topic: When will the first BFS be unveiled?  (Read 3770 times)

Offline QuantumG

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When will the first BFS be unveiled?
« on: 03/11/2018 10:47 PM »
There's a fair bit of information floating around now on when SpaceX will do initial flight testing of the BFS (the second stage or "spaceship" of SpaceX's Mars-bound vehicle) and I can't help but imagine Elon will have a big unveiling ceremony (ala Dragon 2) beforehand, so when might that occur?

To count as an unveiling there has to be actual hardware to show, a physical event with the press invited. Elon posting pics on Instagram doesn't count.

Jeff Bezos has billions to spend on rockets and can go at whatever pace he likes! Wow! What pace is he going at? Well... have you heard of Zeno's paradox?

Offline Khadgars

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Re: When will the first BFS be unveiled?
« Reply #1 on: 03/11/2018 11:02 PM »
Fun thread, but I'd suggest switching to quarters rather than months  ;D

Offline philw1776

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Re: When will the first BFS be unveiled?
« Reply #2 on: 03/12/2018 02:07 PM »
So unveiling at IAC with video would not count since press not present in official capacity with hardware.
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Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: When will the first BFS be unveiled?
« Reply #3 on: 03/12/2018 02:36 PM »
So unveiling at IAC with video would not count since press not present in official capacity with hardware.

@QuantumQ didn't say anything about the hardware be physically at the presentation with the press. So video presentation of hardware with the press present at an official event like IAC counts.


Offline QuantumG

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Re: When will the first BFS be unveiled?
« Reply #4 on: 03/12/2018 09:30 PM »
Due to the size of the thing I think that'd be fine. Just not "powerpoint".
Jeff Bezos has billions to spend on rockets and can go at whatever pace he likes! Wow! What pace is he going at? Well... have you heard of Zeno's paradox?

Offline John Alan

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Re: When will the first BFS be unveiled?
« Reply #5 on: 03/12/2018 09:41 PM »
IAC 2018 - Bremen Germany - Oct 1 - 5, 2018...
Elon will likely show video of whatever BFS hardware they have got built at that point...  ;)

It may not be flight ready yet...
But an BFS airframe mostly built (with people for scale) would be great...  8)

Later (near X-mas?)... have a live unveil of the completed Test BFS, before shipping it around to BC (or wherever) for flight testing...

So early October... my pick...
My 2 cents on poll...  :)

Offline IanThePineapple

Re: When will the first BFS be unveiled?
« Reply #6 on: 03/12/2018 10:17 PM »
IAC 2018 - Bremen Germany - Oct 1 - 5, 2018...
Elon will likely show video of whatever BFS hardware they have got built at that point...  ;)

It may not be flight ready yet...
But an BFS airframe mostly built (with people for scale) would be great...  8)

Later (near X-mas?)... have a live unveil of the completed Test BFS, before shipping it around to BC (or wherever) for flight testing...

So early October... my pick...
My 2 cents on poll...  :)

I was thinking about this yesterday, and I think that the only construction likely occurring now would be engine construction (I wonder how many Raptors are being built/are completed besides the first test one, there has to at least be one or two in manufacturing), getting loads of carbon fiber and getting the equipment in place and aligned. Anything major happening with the ship (basic shape/structure, etc.) would probably be later this year, I'd think around mid-Q3.

If Elon plans on going to IAC 2018 and showing some progress off there, I would think he'd want at least the basic structure near-complete, so we can see the basic shape and size of the thing.

Most of this is just plain guesses and assumptions though.

Offline QuantumG

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Re: When will the first BFS be unveiled?
« Reply #7 on: 03/13/2018 12:38 AM »
If Elon plans on going to IAC 2018 and showing some progress off there, I would think he'd want at least the basic structure near-complete, so we can see the basic shape and size of the thing.

... and if all we see at IAC 2018 is more powerpoint we'll know they're in trouble.
Jeff Bezos has billions to spend on rockets and can go at whatever pace he likes! Wow! What pace is he going at? Well... have you heard of Zeno's paradox?

Offline mikelepage

Re: When will the first BFS be unveiled?
« Reply #8 on: 03/13/2018 02:24 AM »
From the AMA:

Quote
Will be starting with a full-scale Ship doing short hops of a few hundred kilometers altitude and lateral distance. Those are fairly easy on the vehicle, as no heat shield is needed, we can have a large amount of reserve propellant and don't need the high area ratio, deep space Raptor engines.

Next step will be doing orbital velocity Ship flights, which will need all of the above. Worth noting that BFS is capable of reaching orbit by itself with low payload, but having the BF Booster increases payload by more than an order of magnitude. Earth is the wrong planet for single stage to orbit. No problemo on Mars.

So "full-scale" doesn't necessarily mean anywhere near "ready for service".  I'm guessing the first test-article is just the 3 SL raptor engines on a skeleton of prop tankage, and using the header tanks only.

Offline redliox

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Re: When will the first BFS be unveiled?
« Reply #9 on: 03/13/2018 02:53 AM »
I voted for December of 2018 although I suspect that will be somewhat optimistic.
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Online Cheapchips

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Re: When will the first BFS be unveiled?
« Reply #10 on: 03/13/2018 05:42 AM »

Damnit. Voted for September 18 not realising IAC was October. :)

I'm really hoping we'll see some timelapse of fibre being laid.

Offline high road

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Re: When will the first BFS be unveiled?
« Reply #11 on: 03/13/2018 07:14 AM »

We're talking airframe, right? Assuming Elon will be a recurring guest at IAC meetings for the foreseeable future, I'm going for IAC 2019. IAC 2018 will probably see full size engines and maybe some other hardware, but nothing like a completed airframe. In october, they'll still have dragon 2 (4 years since unveiling) to launch for the first time. And they'll still be finishing up on FH and block 5 verification. It's not like that ends after a single launch.

Airframe could be sooner in 2019, but if I'm doing a wild guess, the IAC seems more appealing.

Offline Hog

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Re: When will the first BFS be unveiled?
« Reply #12 on: 03/13/2018 01:21 PM »
1st move of the cover sheet will begin on March 14, 2022 at 14:02:13hrs UTC with the last part of the BFS being unveiled at cover sheet "hard down" occurring on March 14, 2022 at 14:02:57hrs UTC.

Yes it takes a full 44 seconds for the cover sheet to reveal BFR, it's THAT BIG!!!
Paul

Offline Patchouli

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Re: When will the first BFS be unveiled?
« Reply #13 on: 03/15/2018 06:45 PM »
It's a tough call as it depends on at what point in development they wish to do the unveiling.
One big pacing item will be the full scale Raptor engine as it's performance number are going to drive changes to the rest of the design.
But I think they might unveil a grasshopper or F9 Dev R like test article by June 2019.

Online guckyfan

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Re: When will the first BFS be unveiled?
« Reply #14 on: 03/15/2018 06:51 PM »
But I think they might unveil a grasshopper or F9 Dev R like test article by June 2019.

The declared aim of starting with BFS over the booster is that they get the difficult things like aerodynamics tested early. A grasshopper style test vehicle will not achieve that. So even if Elon Musk used the term once I fully expect the first vehicle to have the aerodynamic properties of a BFS. Possibly with the option to change details of the delta-wing to improve as a result of tests.

Offline meberbs

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Re: When will the first BFS be unveiled?
« Reply #15 on: 03/15/2018 07:23 PM »
I'm really hoping we'll see some timelapse of fibre being laid.
Same.

I think they will test hop the first BFS without first holding an unveiling event. They might have enough to show to count this at IAC 2018, and very likely will by IAC 2019, but pictures are likely to be first shown separate from the IAC events, I don't think upcoming IACs will be as key of reveals, so the first time the criteria for this poll is met won't be too important.

Offline rcoppola

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Re: When will the first BFS be unveiled?
« Reply #16 on: 03/15/2018 07:44 PM »
July.
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Offline QuantumG

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Re: When will the first BFS be unveiled?
« Reply #17 on: 03/19/2018 10:08 PM »
https://twitter.com/13ericralph31/status/975870365338558464

"est. completion 16-18 months (NET H2 2019)" for the facility in which BFS will be built. Seems like Elon's claim that BFS will be flying early next year is already slipping into late next year... or 2020.

Jeff Bezos has billions to spend on rockets and can go at whatever pace he likes! Wow! What pace is he going at? Well... have you heard of Zeno's paradox?

Offline Navier–Stokes

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Re: When will the first BFS be unveiled?
« Reply #18 on: 03/19/2018 10:19 PM »
https://twitter.com/13ericralph31/status/975870365338558464

"est. completion 16-18 months (NET H2 2019)" for the facility in which BFS will be built. Seems like Elon's claim that BFS will be flying early next year is already slipping into late next year... or 2020.
The BFS hopper can easily be assembled in Hawthorne and shipped by sea. It won't exactly be cheap to move to the port but certainly it isn't isn't a deal-breaker (especially for a onetime payload). 

Offline RedLineTrain

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Re: When will the first BFS be unveiled?
« Reply #19 on: 03/19/2018 10:56 PM »
https://twitter.com/13ericralph31/status/975870365338558464

"est. completion 16-18 months (NET H2 2019)" for the facility in which BFS will be built. Seems like Elon's claim that BFS will be flying early next year is already slipping into late next year... or 2020.

16-18 months is the expected completion for Phase II, which includes an expansion of a 65,000 square foot facility that will be built in Phase I.  The scheduling for completion of Phase I was not detailed.

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