SpaceX manifest: company aims for five Falcon 9 launches in one month

[Chris Bergin]

https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/03/spacex-manifest-five-falcon-9-launches-one-month/

- By Chris Gebhardt

[Seattle Dave]

Having 39A with both FH and F9 plus 40 with F9 is starting to show the promise we hoped for. Great write up!

[Archibald]

I said it before in other threads: we are living an historical, remarkable moment in spaceflight history: SpaceX Falcon 9R is succeeding where NASA Space Shuttle ( bravely) tried, and failed.

 I mean, SpaceX is currently ramping up flight rates that are becoming similar to what NASA planned for the space shuttle in the early 70's.

Make no mistake: this is no shuttle - bashing or NASA - bashing: I find very interesting a) to see the shuttle promises of cheap and abundant launch becoming reality at least
and
b) it is interesting to compare the two vehicles - they are extremely differents yet have some common traits - notably partial reusability and payload to orbit.

When you grew up with the space shuttle and learning about it, it is amusing to see its promises accomplished some years later by a very different vehicle.  And when you think about it, these two are as different as an Airbus A330 and a Tupolev Tu-160.

[Oli]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I only see 11 launches for 2019 on the manifest, which is one year away.

[docmordrid]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I only see 11 launches for 2019 on the manifest, which is one year away.

$12B in manifest backlog; announced, unannounced, CRS, CCrew, plus whatever StarLink launches and BFR/S tests they do.

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1784969#msg1784969

[ZachF]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I only see 11 launches for 2019 on the manifest, which is one year away.

$12B in manifest backlog; announced, unannounced, CRS, CCrew, plus whatever StarLink launches and BFR/S tests they do.

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1784969#msg1784969

That works out to somewhere between 100 to 200 launches...

[AncientU]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I only see 11 launches for 2019 on the manifest, which is one year away.

They probably do have a lot of spare capacity, since their theoretical launch rate with Block 5s is something like 60-80 flights per year.  Maybe they should offer the USAF a 50 core block buy at half* of last round's price...

* ELC not included or required

[AncientU]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I only see 11 launches for 2019 on the manifest, which is one year away.

$12B in manifest backlog; announced, unannounced, CRS, CCrew, plus whatever StarLink launches and BFR/S tests they do.

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1784969#msg1784969

That works out to somewhere between 100 to 200 launches...

With building capsules for cargo and crew, plus other services they provide, probably 100-120 launches.  Starlink must not be included, since that alone will be hundreds of F9 launches.

[Semmel]

It's probably less than 100 launches. There might be some secret payload launches, which include all kinds of services and paperwork, not just the launch. ISS launches are pretty expensive too.

Also, I would not count starlink launches since they are internal payloads and don't add to the launch revenue.

[speedevil]

Also, I would not count starlink launches since they are internal payloads and don't add to the launch revenue.

It seems unlikely Starlink is going to be funded out of rocket launch revenue.
They've at the same time got demands for BFR development (and Dragon 2 of course).

They pretty much can't run Starlink launch out of internal revenue and have any money left even using very optimistic assumptions.
It would either need to go significantly slower, or do it wholly reusably with BFR, as well as making the satellites orders of magnitude cheaper than normal.

Once they've gotten the first bit of the constellation up and in a functioning state (which they can easily self-fund), external investment is comparatively easy to obtain, with terms that will not lead to much dilution of further revenues, just the ability to rapidly fund a hundred or two launches at the same time as building out several thousand satellites and a healthy slug of funding for BFR.

[AncientU]

Also, I would not count starlink launches since they are internal payloads and don't add to the launch revenue.

It seems unlikely Starlink is going to be funded out of rocket launch revenue.
They've at the same time got demands for BFR development (and Dragon 2 of course).

They pretty much can't run Starlink launch out of internal revenue and have any money left even using very optimistic assumptions.
It would either need to go significantly slower, or do it wholly reusably with BFR, as well as making the satellites orders of magnitude cheaper than normal.

Once they've gotten the first bit of the constellation up and in a functioning state (which they can easily self-fund), external investment is comparatively easy to obtain, with terms that will not lead to much dilution of further revenues, just the ability to rapidly fund a hundred or two launches at the same time as building out several thousand satellites and a healthy slug of funding for BFR.

Starlink launches will be funded out of Starlink revenue.

Slower isn't going to happen; they are accelerating the pace if anything (see BFR/BFS, annual launch rates, Starlink 4,425-->12,000 sats, etc.).

[speedevil]

Starlink launches will be funded out of Starlink revenue.

Starlink has no revenue until a significant part of the constellation is launched, at least in the current design.
Adding a 'Phase 0' with 250 satellites or whatever to raise funds would significantly slow things down as it would rely on them all getting to different planes.

[AncientU]

Starlink launches will be funded out of Starlink revenue.

Starlink has no revenue until a significant part of the constellation is launched, at least in the current design.
Adding a 'Phase 0' with 250 satellites or whatever to raise funds would significantly slow things down as it would rely on them all getting to different planes.

It will cost a couple billion* to get the first 800 sats up so the constellation can transfer to operational status.  That funding could be short term loans, investments, whatever.  By your definition, no company could ever start up.

* Which SpaceX could raise tomorrow.

[speedevil]

It will cost a couple billion* to get the first 800 sats up so the constellation can transfer to operational status.  That funding could be short term loans, investments, whatever.  By your definition, no company could ever start up.

I did not realise you were counting outside investment/loans as revenue. In that case, we are in clear agreement.

[R.Simko]

Is Starlink going to be a separate division of SpaceX, or will it be a totally separate company? 

[AncientU]

Is Starlink going to be a separate division of SpaceX, or will it be a totally separate company?

Haven't heard a word about a separate company, or division for that matter.
Part of SpaceX corporate seems to be the plan.

[Lar]

This probably isn't a Starlink thread. But there is a deadline, they have to get a certain number of birds up by a certain point or they are limited in their total number of birds in the end state, IIRC.

[Jakusb]

Is Starlink going to be a separate division of SpaceX, or will it be a totally separate company?

Haven't heard a word about a separate company, or division for that matter.
Part of SpaceX corporate seems to be the plan.

As far as I understood it, Starlink is to be the Cash Cow to fund BFR/BFS....
It is Elon's solution to fund his Mars ambitions.. I guess the scaled down ITS to BFS is part of that puzzle to get it funded too..

[docmordrid]

Is Starlink going to be a separate division of SpaceX, or will it be a totally separate company?

Haven't heard a word about a separate company, or division for that matter.
Part of SpaceX corporate seems to be the plan.

I expect an Alphabet/Google subsidiary may handle operations as a return on their investment, and AFAICT they still retain Mark Krebs (now at SpaceX) constellation patent assignment.

[CuddlyRocket]

Is Starlink going to be a separate division of SpaceX, or will it be a totally separate company? 

A subsidiary of SpaceX, possibly with minority shareholders, would be my guess. Gives SpaceX control, but with the aim of providing a financial firebreak so that a failure of Starlink doesn't bring down SpaceX itself.

[wannamoonbase]

Is Starlink going to be a separate division of SpaceX, or will it be a totally separate company? 

A subsidiary of SpaceX, possibly with minority shareholders, would be my guess. Gives SpaceX control, but with the aim of providing a financial firebreak so that a failure of Starlink doesn't bring down SpaceX itself.

Agreed, if it has a degree of legal separation they could do an IPO for Starlink for funding and unlocking some value for SpaceX employees.

[mme]

Is Starlink going to be a separate division of SpaceX, or will it be a totally separate company? 

A subsidiary of SpaceX, possibly with minority shareholders, would be my guess. Gives SpaceX control, but with the aim of providing a financial firebreak so that a failure of Starlink doesn't bring down SpaceX itself.

Agreed, if it has a degree of legal separation they could do an IPO for Starlink for funding and unlocking some value for SpaceX employees.

IPO is not a good idea.  Making Starlink a publicly traded company means being beholden to the shareholders which would put a serious damper on funder SpaceX's Mars efforts. Google comments from Musk on Tesla and the IPO. It's the same reason he's using hats and flamethrowers to fund The Boring Company.

My prediction is Starlink stays part of SpaceX and stays privately held.  I'm positive that SpaceX is being very careful who's money they take and I bet they they sign a very clear contract as to SpaceX's purpose and that there is no short term ROI.

[gongora]

Is Starlink going to be a separate division of SpaceX, or will it be a totally separate company? 

A subsidiary of SpaceX, possibly with minority shareholders, would be my guess. Gives SpaceX control, but with the aim of providing a financial firebreak so that a failure of Starlink doesn't bring down SpaceX itself.

It's currently a wholly owned subsidiary. I wouldn't be surprised if they got investors involved eventually.

[Chris Bergin]

Ok chaps. Probably not the thread for Starlink given they aren't on the missions in the article.

[gongora]

So with a week to go in March it's looking like SpaceX will launch somewhere between 2 and 5 flights in April.  Typical.  (Right now I'd probably be more willing to bet on 2 flights in April than 4+).

[speedevil]

So with a week to go in March it's looking like SpaceX will launch somewhere between 2 and 5 flights in April.  Typical.  (Right now I'd probably be more willing to bet on 2 flights in April than 4+).

At one point, from memory, it looked like there were going to be 5 in December - ended up at two.