Author Topic: SpaceX manifest: company aims for five Falcon 9 launches in one month (Read 7961 times)

Chris Bergin · « **on:** 03/09/2018 07:06 pm »

https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/03/spacex-manifest-five-falcon-9-launches-one-month/

- By Chris Gebhardt

Seattle Dave · « **Reply #1 on:** 03/10/2018 04:13 am »

Having 39A with both FH and F9 plus 40 with F9 is starting to show the promise we hoped for. Great write up!

Archibald · « **Reply #2 on:** 03/10/2018 05:55 am »

I said it before in other threads: we are living an historical, remarkable moment in spaceflight history: SpaceX Falcon 9R is succeeding where NASA Space Shuttle ( bravely) tried, and failed.

I mean, SpaceX is currently ramping up flight rates that are becoming similar to what NASA planned for the space shuttle in the early 70's.

Make no mistake: this is no shuttle - bashing or NASA - bashing: I find very interesting a) to see the shuttle promises of cheap and abundant launch becoming reality at least
and
b) it is interesting to compare the two vehicles - they are extremely differents yet have some common traits - notably partial reusability and payload to orbit.

When you grew up with the space shuttle and learning about it, it is amusing to see its promises accomplished some years later by a very different vehicle. And when you think about it, these two are as different as an Airbus A330 and a Tupolev Tu-160.

Oli · « **Reply #3 on:** 03/10/2018 06:29 am »

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I only see 11 launches for 2019 on the manifest, which is one year away.

docmordrid · « **Reply #4 on:** 03/10/2018 10:26 am »

Quote from: Oli on 03/10/2018 06:29 am

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I only see 11 launches for 2019 on the manifest, which is one year away.

$12B in manifest backlog; announced, unannounced, CRS, CCrew, plus whatever StarLink launches and BFR/S tests they do.

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1784969#msg1784969

ZachF · « **Reply #5 on:** 03/10/2018 11:31 am »

Quote from: docmordrid on 03/10/2018 10:26 am

Quote from: Oli on 03/10/2018 06:29 am
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I only see 11 launches for 2019 on the manifest, which is one year away.

$12B in manifest backlog; announced, unannounced, CRS, CCrew, plus whatever StarLink launches and BFR/S tests they do.

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1784969#msg1784969

That works out to somewhere between 100 to 200 launches...

AncientU · « **Reply #6 on:** 03/10/2018 11:33 am »

Quote from: Oli on 03/10/2018 06:29 am

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I only see 11 launches for 2019 on the manifest, which is one year away.

They probably do have a lot of spare capacity, since their theoretical launch rate with Block 5s is something like 60-80 flights per year. Maybe they should offer the USAF a 50 core block buy at half* of last round's price...

* ELC not included or required

AncientU · « **Reply #7 on:** 03/10/2018 11:35 am »

Quote from: ZachF on 03/10/2018 11:31 am

Quote from: docmordrid on 03/10/2018 10:26 am
Quote from: Oli on 03/10/2018 06:29 am
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I only see 11 launches for 2019 on the manifest, which is one year away.

$12B in manifest backlog; announced, unannounced, CRS, CCrew, plus whatever StarLink launches and BFR/S tests they do.

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1784969#msg1784969

That works out to somewhere between 100 to 200 launches...

With building capsules for cargo and crew, plus other services they provide, probably 100-120 launches. Starlink must not be included, since that alone will be hundreds of F9 launches.

Semmel · « **Reply #8 on:** 03/10/2018 11:56 am »

It's probably less than 100 launches. There might be some secret payload launches, which include all kinds of services and paperwork, not just the launch. ISS launches are pretty expensive too.

Also, I would not count starlink launches since they are internal payloads and don't add to the launch revenue.

speedevil · « **Reply #9 on:** 03/10/2018 12:18 pm »

Quote from: Semmel on 03/10/2018 11:56 am

Also, I would not count starlink launches since they are internal payloads and don't add to the launch revenue.

It seems unlikely Starlink is going to be funded out of rocket launch revenue.
They've at the same time got demands for BFR development (and Dragon 2 of course).

They pretty much can't run Starlink launch out of internal revenue and have any money left even using very optimistic assumptions.
It would either need to go significantly slower, or do it wholly reusably with BFR, as well as making the satellites orders of magnitude cheaper than normal.

Once they've gotten the first bit of the constellation up and in a functioning state (which they can easily self-fund), external investment is comparatively easy to obtain, with terms that will not lead to much dilution of further revenues, just the ability to rapidly fund a hundred or two launches at the same time as building out several thousand satellites and a healthy slug of funding for BFR.

AncientU · « **Reply #10 on:** 03/10/2018 12:30 pm »

Quote from: speedevil on 03/10/2018 12:18 pm

Quote from: Semmel on 03/10/2018 11:56 am
Also, I would not count starlink launches since they are internal payloads and don't add to the launch revenue.
It seems unlikely Starlink is going to be funded out of rocket launch revenue.
They've at the same time got demands for BFR development (and Dragon 2 of course).

They pretty much can't run Starlink launch out of internal revenue and have any money left even using very optimistic assumptions.
It would either need to go significantly slower, or do it wholly reusably with BFR, as well as making the satellites orders of magnitude cheaper than normal.

Once they've gotten the first bit of the constellation up and in a functioning state (which they can easily self-fund), external investment is comparatively easy to obtain, with terms that will not lead to much dilution of further revenues, just the ability to rapidly fund a hundred or two launches at the same time as building out several thousand satellites and a healthy slug of funding for BFR.

Starlink launches will be funded out of Starlink revenue.

Slower isn't going to happen; they are accelerating the pace if anything (see BFR/BFS, annual launch rates, Starlink 4,425-->12,000 sats, etc.).

speedevil · « **Reply #11 on:** 03/10/2018 12:42 pm »

Quote from: AncientU on 03/10/2018 12:30 pm

Starlink launches will be funded out of Starlink revenue.

Starlink has no revenue until a significant part of the constellation is launched, at least in the current design.
Adding a 'Phase 0' with 250 satellites or whatever to raise funds would significantly slow things down as it would rely on them all getting to different planes.

AncientU · « **Reply #12 on:** 03/10/2018 12:57 pm »

Quote from: speedevil on 03/10/2018 12:42 pm

Quote from: AncientU on 03/10/2018 12:30 pm
Starlink launches will be funded out of Starlink revenue.
Starlink has no revenue until a significant part of the constellation is launched, at least in the current design.
Adding a 'Phase 0' with 250 satellites or whatever to raise funds would significantly slow things down as it would rely on them all getting to different planes.

It will cost a couple billion* to get the first 800 sats up so the constellation can transfer to operational status. That funding could be short term loans, investments, whatever. By your definition, no company could ever start up.

* Which SpaceX could raise tomorrow.

speedevil · « **Reply #13 on:** 03/10/2018 01:21 pm »

Quote from: AncientU on 03/10/2018 12:57 pm

It will cost a couple billion* to get the first 800 sats up so the constellation can transfer to operational status. That funding could be short term loans, investments, whatever. By your definition, no company could ever start up.

I did not realise you were counting outside investment/loans as revenue. In that case, we are in clear agreement.

R.Simko · « **Reply #14 on:** 03/10/2018 03:43 pm »

Is Starlink going to be a separate division of SpaceX, or will it be a totally separate company?

AncientU · « **Reply #15 on:** 03/10/2018 04:11 pm »

Quote from: R.Simko on 03/10/2018 03:43 pm

Is Starlink going to be a separate division of SpaceX, or will it be a totally separate company?

Haven't heard a word about a separate company, or division for that matter.
Part of SpaceX corporate seems to be the plan.

Lar · « **Reply #16 on:** 03/10/2018 04:23 pm »

This probably isn't a Starlink thread. But there is a deadline, they have to get a certain number of birds up by a certain point or they are limited in their total number of birds in the end state, IIRC.

Jakusb · « **Reply #17 on:** 03/10/2018 04:25 pm »

Quote from: AncientU on 03/10/2018 04:11 pm

Quote from: R.Simko on 03/10/2018 03:43 pm
Is Starlink going to be a separate division of SpaceX, or will it be a totally separate company?

Haven't heard a word about a separate company, or division for that matter.
Part of SpaceX corporate seems to be the plan.

As far as I understood it, Starlink is to be the Cash Cow to fund BFR/BFS....
It is Elon's solution to fund his Mars ambitions.. I guess the scaled down ITS to BFS is part of that puzzle to get it funded too..

docmordrid · « **Reply #18 on:** 03/10/2018 06:11 pm »

Quote from: AncientU on 03/10/2018 04:11 pm

Quote from: R.Simko on 03/10/2018 03:43 pm
Is Starlink going to be a separate division of SpaceX, or will it be a totally separate company?

Haven't heard a word about a separate company, or division for that matter.
Part of SpaceX corporate seems to be the plan.

I expect an Alphabet/Google subsidiary may handle operations as a return on their investment, and AFAICT they still retain Mark Krebs (now at SpaceX) constellation patent assignment.

CuddlyRocket · « **Reply #19 on:** 03/10/2018 07:07 pm »

Quote from: R.Simko on 03/10/2018 03:43 pm

Is Starlink going to be a separate division of SpaceX, or will it be a totally separate company?

A subsidiary of SpaceX, possibly with minority shareholders, would be my guess. Gives SpaceX control, but with the aim of providing a financial firebreak so that a failure of Starlink doesn't bring down SpaceX itself.