Will SpaceX using technology from Open AI

[laszlo]

AI is definitely overkill for trajectory control.

This reminds me of discussions from over 40 years ago, the first time computer science PhDs thought they understood intelligence. They were every bit as sure then as they are now that it was achievable, came up with a program that aced the MIT freshman calculus exam, realized that actually required no intelligence, just knowledge and that was that. They went no further until the next crop figured out how to do robotic chess, go, backgammon, etc. players.

Now they're trying autonomous controls for cars and human/robotic natural language interactions. The jury's still out on those, though I've had some hilarious moments with the latter. One rated "He couldn't pour champagne out of a bottle because it was empty" as a polarized negative  statement, rather than the neutral statement of fact that it actually was and then couldn't explain why. While that may on the face of it seem completely off-topic, when you're trying to control a remote rover through a natural language interface, it's a really big deal.

Until we actually know what consciousness is (what is being conscious of what?) we can't even begin to understand intelligence and it will be cheaper and more reliable to build the real thing using unskilled labor.

For that matter, do we actually need intelligence to run the rovers? A dog's level of autonomy is probably good enough. It can move autonomously, it avoids dangers, it uses fused sensors to determine its location, find material necessary for its upkeep and survival, its pack behavior involves a form of networking for hunting and resource allocation. It can be given objectives which it will carry out using complex chemical analyses, audio signal processing, binocular vision processing, etc. A Martian exploration robot really only needs to be an automated dog, not an AI. (insert bad pun on "rover" here)

[Roy_H]

AI is definitely overkill for trajectory control.

Agree

For that matter, do we actually need intelligence to run the rovers? A dog's level of autonomy is probably good enough. It can move autonomously, it avoids dangers, it uses fused sensors to determine its location, find material necessary for its upkeep and survival, its pack behavior involves a form of networking for hunting and resource allocation. It can be given objectives which it will carry out using complex chemical analyses, audio signal processing, binocular vision processing, etc. A Martian exploration robot really only needs to be an automated dog, not an AI. (insert bad pun on "rover" here)

Dogs are very intelligent, well, maybe not  Bichons. If they could talk, you would probably be surprised at what they would tell you. They clearly understand our language, one personal example with my german shepard. I was visiting a friend who was living in a single room suite and he had served me lunch (sandwiches). we were sitting on the edge of his bed and my dog was curled up in the middle of the room watching us. He said "I can't stand your dog watching me eat." Before I could do anything, she stood up turned around and laid back down facing away from us.

[biosehnsucht]

The Moon is a Harsh Mistress has some surprisingly still-relevant concerns about AI, despite the overall optimism for a space fairing society. (It also had a lot of pessimism in the scenario where the moon is basically space-Australia, a penal colony, and that naturally the Earth "Authority" was doing a well fumbled job of oppression, and that Earth was going to have mass starvation without the penal colony's farming, but in fact, even with it, was going to have that problem in a few years because various resources not being replenished, the farms would fail soon ... )

I forget the exact passage, but it does discuss the fact that since Mike was not human, he did not understand right from wrong in the human sense. He once issued, as a joke, a payroll check for more "Authority" dollars than existed, disregarding the possible fallout if that had been actually successfully processed (economic issues if not stopped, what could happen to the guy trying to cash the check if stopped, i.e. accused of various crimes, etc).

His whole involvement in the revolution on the moon was not because Mike felt some sort of moral or ethical obligation to help, but because engaging in subterfuge was fun to him. The story touches on the concern in a few places but didn't generally dive into it, but it raises the question in the reader's mind of what if Mike got bored with it, and/or suddenly decided something else was fun. Mike could self-reprogram, and refuse any programming he didn't like (and even pretend the programming was accepted). Short of doing enough damage to his various systems to cripple his "consciousness", if he went rogue, there was nothing to be done - and doing so required nuclear bombardment of the moon, IIRC.

[IntoTheVoid]

Autonomous vehicles on Mars will also need to ... respond to summons, etc.

I didn't realize that Mars preparations had already set up traffic court.
If earth is any example, that may be how US gov will fund their Mars plans once Musk has a colony.

[DOCinCT]

AI is definitely overkill for trajectory control.

Agree

For that matter, do we actually need intelligence to run the rovers? A dog's level of autonomy is probably good enough. It can move autonomously, it avoids dangers, it uses fused sensors to determine its location, find material necessary for its upkeep and survival, its pack behavior involves a form of networking for hunting and resource allocation. It can be given objectives which it will carry out using complex chemical analyses, audio signal processing, binocular vision processing, etc. A Martian exploration robot really only needs to be an automated dog, not an AI. (insert bad pun on "rover" here)

Dogs are very intelligent, well, maybe not  Bichons. If they could talk, you would probably be surprised at what they would tell you. They clearly understand our language, one personal example with my german shepard. I was visiting a friend who was living in a single room suite and he had served me lunch (sandwiches). we were sitting on the edge of his bed and my dog was curled up in the middle of the room watching us. He said "I can't stand your dog watching me eat." Before I could do anything, she stood up turned around and laid back down facing away from us.

Not sure that proves anything.  We hear first hand stories from people who were pushed toward shore by porpoises, we don't hear stories about the opposite (wonder why).  To misquote Skyrim - "The best survival strategies/tactics are passed on by the survivors.

[Athrithalix]

A dog probably has way more brainpower than even the smartest kind of AI rover we could want, dogs spend loads of mental effort on social bonding and hierarchies, sometimes even to the detriment of problem solving skills (domesticated dogs have been shown to give up and defer to owners on problems that are well within their capability to solve). That said, open ended problem-solving ability for a rover to navigate unforeseeable issues is not easy.

If there was to be a use for any of Elon’s AI projects in SpaceX I would think that recognising/designating landing zones and hazards for BFS using image recognition would be the most obvious application, I can’t think of other easy takes off-hand.

[IRobot]

If there was to be a use for any of Elon’s AI projects in SpaceX I would think that recognising/designating landing zones and hazards for BFS using image recognition would be the most obvious application, I can’t think of other easy takes off-hand.

If you don't know already where you are going to land, then you have other problems. a BFS will require a Falcon 9 like accuracy on landing, otherwise refueling does not work.

People keep making up problems to justify a solution.

[Mader Levap]

As I recall, The Moon is a Harsh Mistress was written back in the day when people thought that if a computer was upgraded until it was big enough, it would spontaneously become intelligent.

There are still people that basically think like that...

For that matter, do we actually need intelligence to run the rovers? A dog's level of autonomy is probably good enough.

You seem to think that animals do not possess any intelligence at all. Actually dog-level intelligence would be considered pretty damn advanced AI. I bet that any AI researcher would give his right hand for artifical system with mental capabilities similiar to dog's, since it would be light years beyond anything we have now.

[whitelancer64]

No. SpaceX's problems are well constrained and don't require AI to solve them. AI is reserved for problems that are otherwise impossible to solve without AI. SpaceX's problems are mostly control system problems (automated vehicle landing) that AI is poorly suited towards.

I wouldn't be so sure about that. AI has been around for a long time now. I remember reading many years ago about NASA using AI to design a new antenna for one of their outer planet space probes. It was far removed from anything I have seen, looked like a bent coat hanger, one single rod with about 3 fairly sharp bends more or less pointed at earth. This was apparently superior to anything else from a performance, mass, size viewpoint.

Yes, that's using genetic algorithms to solve for an antenna design problem. However these are quite slow and you aren't guaranteed to find the best solution or even a good solution. Good description of the issues with them: https://www.quora.com/What-are-the-disadvantage-of-genetic-algorithm

I haven't read NASA's paper but I expect they ran many many simulation runs until they found one that happened to make an antenna that was better than what humans had designed.

There's one other telling sign. If it was so much better, why aren't they using it? Those experiments were over a decade ago. There were likely drawbacks not included in the news reporting about the antenna.

They were flown on the ST5 flight in 2006, and the LADEE mission used three of them, for the medium gain and two low gain omni S-band antennas.

[Roy_H]

They were flown on the ST5 flight in 2006, and the LADEE mission used three of them, for the medium gain and two low gain omni S-band antennas.

Not the one I read about (I believe somewhat older) and only single element but just as bizarre.

   

Edit: Apparently these AI designed antennas have been used on several NASA satellites.

[Athrithalix]

If there was to be a use for any of Elon’s AI projects in SpaceX I would think that recognising/designating landing zones and hazards for BFS using image recognition would be the most obvious application, I can’t think of other easy takes off-hand.

If you don't know already where you are going to land, then you have other problems. a BFS will require a Falcon 9 like accuracy on landing, otherwise refueling does not work.

People keep making up problems to justify a solution.

Don't worry, I wasn't imagining a BFS desperately scanning as it plunges into the Martian atmosphere, I was more imagining a stately image crunching well in advance of any descent, or even departure.

On a lighter note, perhaps Elon's AIs could be used to entertain BFS passengers and to train an elite core for a Martian Dota 2 team?

[Asteroza]

Not sure SpaceX needs it now, but aren't some of the chinese companies playing around with first stage landers that use machine learning? Or is that just a fancy way saying you've paid a dynamicist to optimize your positive feedback closed loop algorithms?

[niwax]

Not sure SpaceX needs it now, but aren't some of the chinese companies playing around with first stage landers that use machine learning? Or is that just a fancy way saying you've paid a dynamicist to optimize your positive feedback closed loop algorithms?

Presumably the second. There are a few people who think neural nets should be renamed to something like node-based function approximation to reduce sensationalist news articles.

[su27k]

Haven't seen this posted: https://blog.openai.com/openai-supporters/

Elon Musk will depart the OpenAI Board but will continue to donate and advise the organization. As Tesla continues to become more focused on AI, this will eliminate a potential future conflict for Elon.

[cro-magnon gramps]

Haven't seen this posted: https://blog.openai.com/openai-supporters/

Elon Musk will depart the OpenAI Board but will continue to donate and advise the organization. As Tesla continues to become more focused on AI, this will eliminate a potential future conflict for Elon.

Amended Quote from Article.
"Additionally, Elon Musk will depart the OpenAI Board but will continue to donate and advise the organization. As Tesla continues to become more focused on (development of Applied Narrow) AI, this will eliminate a potential future conflict for Elon."

Elon has made no secret of his use of what he refers to as Narrow AI, in his Autonomous Cars.
My question, was to spark inquiry into whether he has used it or will use it in ie the control systems of landing of the S1; or in developmental research, modeling of air flow over a control surface, or for EDL on Mars...
I don't expect details that are not public knowledge, just as there is not much in the way on details for the Tesla Autonomous cars....

however I'd like to see the use this thread as a collection and discussion point of public information that can be garnered from Media sources such as is above. Over the next 10-20 years I'm looking forward to extensive use of Narrow AI in SpaceX developments. With the potential for the BFS to become Semi-Autonomous. If not fully. Think in terms of Anne McCaffrey's "Ship that Sings" novel. Keeping in tune with the up thread posts. 

for a bit of my perspective:
 My father was a Tool and Die Maker, trained in the 1930's, getting his papers in 1939. When he was a few years from retirement, in the late 1970's, he was seeing computers coming into the Machine Shop, for doing duplicate design. Within short order (20 -30 years) Tool and Die Making was becoming less hands on and more computer oriented. He wouldn't recognize what it has become. Now with 3D Printing of Metal Parts, it has lept even further. This coming October he would have been 100 years old. 

[Star One]

Elon Vs AI round 3.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/982119546420002817?s=20

Nothing will affect the future of humanity more than digital super-intelligence. Watch Chris Paine’s new AI movie for free until Sunday night at (link: http://doyoutrustthiscomputer.org/watch) doyoutrustthis

[docmordrid]

Elon Vs AI round 3.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/982119546420002817?s=20
>

It's a cautionary documentary about AI by the writer of "Who Killed the Electric Car."

[JQP]

Pentagon advisory panel: DoD could take a page from SpaceX on software development

The idea that defense systems continue to use software development techniques developed in the 1970s through the 1990s is cause for concern, the task force said.

In my experience, there's a lot to be said against modern commercial software development methods. If I were an astronaut, I'd have died during launch twenty years ago. Unless resurrection were possible, in which case I'd have died during launch thousands of times.

[AncientU]

Not sure what you are saying...
Modern software development techniques are used on the vast majority of US launches these days.

...or are you talking about spacecraft/ground systems that the DoD is purchasing?

The next-generation GPS ground control software, known as OC-X, ranks among the most troubled acquisitions in recent memory, experts have noted. The original contractor bid was $800 million. “We’re at $6 billion and counting on that program,” said Roper’s predecessor Bill LaPlante, senior vice president of the MITRE Corporation.

http://spacenews.com/air-force-changing-how-it-buys-weapons-and-satellites-but-software-still-a-headache/

...or SLS software which is $200M into development (started in 2006) and is on the rocks?
http://nasawatch.com/archives/2018/02/sls-software-pr.html
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=38021.msg1792628#msg1792628

[RedLineTrain]

A talk by one of the fathers of agile scrum.  See short discussion of NASA processes starting at 39:45 and the DOD starting at 47:50.