SpaceX FH : Falcon Heavy Demo : Feb 6, 2018 : Discussion Thread 2

[Nomadd]

Your model should be as simple as possible, but no simpler.

How could it be simpler than possible?

[meekGee]

Your model should be as simple as possible, but no simpler.

How could it be simpler than possible?

It's a soft "possible"...

"As simple as possible" carries an implicit " but still valid" suffix...

If you use the hard definition of "possible", then the simplest possible model is "it will never work"...

[meekGee]

Your model should be as simple as possible, but no simpler.

How could it be simpler than possible?

Along these lines:

http://dilbert.com/strip/2001-04-18

[FutureSpaceTourist]

List 0f viewers for the launch is building:

Commerce secretary Wilbur Ross will be attending SpaceX's Falcon Heavy launch on Tuesday

https://twitter.com/nova_road/status/960291147393486850

Assuming the schedule holds - I'm headed to the Cape tomorrow.  First time since leaving @NASA - If @SpaceX can make this work, it is a game changer & should wake up the government to stop spending billions to compete with the U.S. private sector. #godspeedfalconheavy #gobabygo

https://twitter.com/lori_garver/status/960231449826906114

[AC in NC]

Party thread virus spreading...

It's a pandemic.  We need a button that overlays posts with a Party Thread Virus Watermark meme.

eta:  Primarily directed at the "possible" silliness.

To add a meaningful contribution, and I'm not a statistician but I do find this subtopic mildly interesting even if it may be better located elsewhere.  I'd suggest a better way to obtain a sense of the reliability is to go back to when they "solved" landings, take the run since then, and calculate the reliability necessary to give you a 95% (or whatever) probability that they would've achieved that particular run of landing outcomes.

I'm not sure how to describe why I think the 5% is right (something along the lines of "There's only a 5% chance the observed outcomes don't reflect reliability") but the graphic approximates a figure I was thinking seems right depending on how to choose your run of landings and successes (I'm admittedly counting in a way others might disagree with so I don't want to debate that part).

Whether any of that applies to the situation given the differences with the FH recovery regime it's hard to say.

[macpacheco]

Wait, is there ex-NASA people publicly telling US Government to kill SLS/Orion ? Wow        

[Lar]

Wait, is there ex-NASA people publicly telling US Government to kill SLS/Orion ? Wow        

Lori Garver has been a vocal critic of NASA practices vis-a-vis commercial practices for some time now, not too surprising...

[CJ]

My personal SWAG regarding the phases of the FH flight of most concern; 

The first five seconds of flight, due to possible unforeseen acoustics (such as they discovered with Shuttle). I know they model such things, but modeling is not always perfect. 

Max-Q, due to possible unforeseen dynamic effects on the vehicle.

Side core staging, due to chance of either sep failure or recontact.

And would I be correct in assuming that, after the side cores punch off, it's very similar to a normal F9 launch when it comes to risk from that point on? 

I'm cautiously optimistic about this launch, but I'm also aware that first flights have, historically, a high failure rate. My guess is that in this case, due to so much commonality with F9, it's a lower risk than with an all-new vehicle, but it's still a new vehicle in a lot of ways.

Fingers crossed.

[geza]

Your model should be as simple as possible, but no simpler.

How could it be simpler than possible?

It's a soft "possible"...

"As simple as possible" carries an implicit " but still valid" suffix...

If you use the hard definition of "possible", then the simplest possible model is "it will never work"...

It comes from Einstein (probably):
https://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/05/13/einstein-simple/

[tvg98]

Starman in Red Roadster

https://www.instagram.com/p/BezcvpzAgYI/

Is this just a mannequin that's there just for the picture, or is this a passenger? 

Also, is that a camera just in front of the Roadster?

[chipguy]

Starman in Red Roadster

https://www.instagram.com/p/BezcvpzAgYI/

Is this just a mannequin that's there just for the picture, or is this a passenger? 

Also, is that a camera just in front of the Roadster?

Looks like SpaceX is going full Heavy Metal on this one. 

[meekGee]

Is this the same adapter, only covered up?

I'm asking because the color of the bottom bolt circle (is it the same one?) changed, and the previous "cone" was not axi-symmetric.  Not sure if this one is.

[OnWithTheShow]

Looks like a 2nd camera tower by the drivers door and maybe something on the back of the car as well.

[oiorionsbelt]

Best mass simulator ever!

[king1999]

Wait, is there ex-NASA people publicly telling US Government to kill SLS/Orion ? Wow        

Lori Garver has been a vocal critic of NASA practices vis-a-vis commercial practices for some time now, not too surprising...

Can't believe Lori Garver has become such an Elon Fanboi after she left office.

[meekGee]

Looks like a 2nd camera tower by the drivers door and maybe something on the back of the car as well.

You know at this point if they hid a superDraco in the trunk, I'd just go "whatever".

[Req]

Also, is that a camera just in front of the Roadster?

Looks like a 2nd camera tower by the drivers door and maybe something on the back of the car as well.

Note that the pulleys/outlets(or whatever) in the first pic appear to be attached to the wall in the background.

Edit:  And in the fourth pic it appears that we can put any speculation about whether the Roadster will detach or not to rest.  It looks like it's hard-mounted.

[JAFO]

Starman in Red Roadster

https://www.instagram.com/p/BezcvpzAgYI/

Is this just a mannequin that's there just for the picture, or is this a passenger? 

Also, is that a camera just in front of the Roadster?

Space Stig?

[Aussie_Space_Nut]

He's driving on the wrong side of the road! .......errrrrr....... wrong side of the solar system!

[biosehnsucht]

At least some of the image appears photoshopped - look at the wheels. Very odd, like taken at a different angle and photoshopped into place...

Would not be surprised if they're launching without any wheels/tires attached, and photoshopped them back on lazily for this set of photos.