I went with success, insofar as that I don't think the rocket will explode, however I expect a few hiccups that may require some design tweaks and another demo mission before a paying customer puts a payload on top. If Elon's team nails it 100% though (perfect flight, pinpoint TMI, 3 recovered boosters), it'll be one for the record books and prove that SpaceX has what it takes to get us to Mars.