Poll

What can we expect when the Falcon Heavy launches?

Catastrophic failure before clearing the launch tower
Clearing launch tower but failure to reach orbit
Successful flight to orbit

Voting closes: 01/28/2018 10:13 PM


Author Topic: POLL: Falcon Heavy launch - How will it go? Vote here!  (Read 8372 times)

Offline Oersted

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Pretty self-explanatory poll...

I consciously kept the options simple to keep their number down. No differentiation beyond "reaching orbit". For the purposes of this poll that is considered a success. I think Elon feels the same!

Looking forward to see what confidence level NSF members have in this launch attempt.

Good luck SpaceX!
« Last Edit: 12/29/2017 07:09 PM by Lar »

Offline scienceguy

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Re: Falcon Heavy launch - How will it go? Vote here!
« Reply #1 on: 12/29/2017 05:23 PM »
In the "Predictions for 2018" thread, I predicted  a successful flight to orbit, but this being a new rocket and all...
e^(pi*i) = -1

Offline mheney

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Re: Falcon Heavy launch - How will it go? Vote here!
« Reply #2 on: 12/29/2017 05:23 PM »
OK, I'll start things off optimistically.  There may be a post-ignition pad abort or three, but once they actually release the hold-downs, I'm feeling pretty good about the flight.

Offline nacnud

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Re: Falcon Heavy launch - How will it go? Vote here!
« Reply #3 on: 12/29/2017 05:23 PM »
 8) Can we have some options that include the fate of the boosters?

Offline envy887

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Re: Falcon Heavy launch - How will it go? Vote here!
« Reply #4 on: 12/29/2017 05:31 PM »
I think it will reach orbit, though that does not mean it will be 100% successful.

Shouldn't this be in the polls section?

Offline drunyan8315

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Re: Falcon Heavy launch - How will it go? Vote here!
« Reply #5 on: 12/29/2017 05:34 PM »
Yes, I think Spacex knows how to do precision timings of events. May be a pad abort or three as said above, but I think she’ll fly once off the hold downs. The initial roll onto launch azimuth should be straightforward, having been done on DIVH and Titan 3/4 for years.

80% chance of success, my guess.

Offline ncb1397

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Re: Falcon Heavy launch - How will it go? Vote here!
« Reply #6 on: 12/29/2017 05:35 PM »
The beer spilled in the back seat will seed Mars with life, thus fulfilling Musk's goal of colonizing Mars.

Offline Patchouli

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Re: Falcon Heavy launch - How will it go? Vote here!
« Reply #7 on: 12/29/2017 05:39 PM »
I think it will successfully make it to orbit but there is a chance of anomalies causing less than idea performance like on the Delta IV Heavy demo flight where cavitation caused early shut down of the boosters and core stage.
https://spaceflightnow.com/delta/d310/050316rootcause.html
« Last Edit: 12/29/2017 05:40 PM by Patchouli »

Offline Rocket Science

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Re: Falcon Heavy launch - How will it go? Vote here!
« Reply #8 on: 12/29/2017 05:44 PM »
Successful flight to orbit whatever the parameters are...
"The laws of physics are unforgiving"
~Rob, Physics instructor, aviator, vintage auto racer

Online docmordrid

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Re: Falcon Heavy launch - How will it go? Vote here!
« Reply #9 on: 12/29/2017 05:45 PM »
Success.
DM

Offline John Alan

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Re: Falcon Heavy launch - How will it go? Vote here!
« Reply #10 on: 12/29/2017 05:54 PM »
Do I think the payload will be hurled out into space... likely on the correct trajectory.. Yes... 8)
Do I think there may be some snags or issues either seen, or hidden in the data obtained...  I do...  ???
Will the result be a delay on the next FH launch... Maybe... Maybe not...  ;)

Offline Barrie

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Re: Falcon Heavy launch - How will it go? Vote here!
« Reply #11 on: 12/29/2017 05:56 PM »
All the delays have been time spent working all foreseeable issues, so I am hopeful it will be a successful launch to an orbit...

Offline Oersted

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Re: Falcon Heavy launch - How will it go? Vote here!
« Reply #12 on: 12/29/2017 06:12 PM »
I am surprised that 67 out of the first 77 voters predict successful flight to orbit. Seems NSF'ers believe very much in SpaceX' ability to pull this off.

Offline Tuts36

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Re: Falcon Heavy launch - How will it go? Vote here!
« Reply #13 on: 12/29/2017 06:19 PM »
I am surprised that 67 out of the first 77 voters predict successful flight to orbit. Seems NSF'ers believe very much in SpaceX' ability to pull this off.

I'm not.  FH has been "6 months away" for years - not rushed to the pad at all.  Meanwhile, 2017 was a showcase for what F9 can do as a mature launcher.  We haven't been hearing as much lately from the "But 27 ENGINES! It's almost as bad as N1!" folks.

I am going to try SOOO hard to drive down and see this launch.

Offline deruch

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Re: Falcon Heavy launch - How will it go? Vote here!
« Reply #14 on: 12/29/2017 06:21 PM »
Voted for success to orbit, but I'm including the caveat that they will fail to recover one of the 3 boosters.  This can come from any cause, separation failure, landing error, etc.
Shouldn't reality posts be in "Advanced concepts"?  --Nomadd

Offline pb2000

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Re: Falcon Heavy launch - How will it go? Vote here!
« Reply #15 on: 12/29/2017 06:23 PM »
I went with success, insofar as that I don't think the rocket will explode, however I expect a few hiccups that may require some design tweaks and another demo mission before a paying customer puts a payload on top. If Elon's team nails it 100% though (perfect flight, pinpoint TMI, 3 recovered boosters), it'll be one for the record books and prove that SpaceX has what it takes to get us to Mars.
Launches attended: Worldview-4 (Atlas V 401), Iridium NEXT Flight 1 (Falcon 9 FT)

Offline Oersted

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Re: Falcon Heavy launch - How will it go? Vote here!
« Reply #16 on: 12/29/2017 06:49 PM »
Given this years' record in first stage landings I don't see why the boosters wouldn't land just fine as long as the separation event is succesful. Smooth sailing from there.

Offline Johnnyhinbos

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Re: Falcon Heavy launch - How will it go? Vote here!
« Reply #17 on: 12/29/2017 06:50 PM »
I'll answer in the accepted poll justification discussion format:

I think this launch will result in one or fewer successes, with zero or more boosters sticking a landing, and not more than one (but maybe fewer) Teslas injected into orbit around the sun or some other orbit, or not. I'll report back on how I did after the launch!

(Just kidding - I'm feeling good that this beast will have 100% mission success with the two side boosters completing a RTLS and the center core RUDing on the ASDS due to a hot entry)
John Hanzl. Author, action / adventure www.johnhanzl.com

Offline Patchouli

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Re: Falcon Heavy launch - How will it go? Vote here!
« Reply #18 on: 12/29/2017 07:00 PM »
I am surprised that 67 out of the first 77 voters predict successful flight to orbit. Seems NSF'ers believe very much in SpaceX' ability to pull this off.

I'm not.  FH has been "6 months away" for years - not rushed to the pad at all.  Meanwhile, 2017 was a showcase for what F9 can do as a mature launcher.  We haven't been hearing as much lately from the "But 27 ENGINES! It's almost as bad as N1!" folks.

I am going to try SOOO hard to drive down and see this launch.

I wouldn't say it's nearly as bad as the N1 as you don't have all 27 engines sharing the same plumbing and Merlin is a relatively low pressure engine compared to the NK-15 that has less tendency RUD in a spectacular manner.

« Last Edit: 12/29/2017 07:14 PM by Patchouli »

Offline Lar

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Re: POLL: Falcon Heavy launch - How will it go? Vote here!
« Reply #19 on: 12/29/2017 07:21 PM »
POLL added to the title.... I think it got moved already (on my phone so... )

I voted complete success. I think they will recover all the boosters and put the roadster in a useful orbit.

This vehicle won't fly again, though. Per comments by Elon and Gwynne.

(Coming to you from Fishlips!!!! )
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

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