With a Falcon Heavy rocket due to be launched and no important mission for it planned (other than car delivery to Mars), would it be possible to grab the opportunity and aim to catch up with , film and gather as much information on the Oumuamua, inter-stellar asteroid that recently passed Earth.It is probably just a lump of rock but as its 1:10 shape and high rotation rate make it appear an interesting object, apart from it origin probably being from another star.There are probably no other rockets planned to be launched soon that could undertake this task.I also feel that we should have probes ready to be launched at short notice , if an event like this occurs again.
And having expensive probes sitting around in storage, possibly for decades or even centuries, doesn't make any sense. For now we can make do with our "eyes in the skies" such as Hubble, Spitzer and other orbiting observatories, as well as many execellent ground-based observatories.
Quote from: woods170 on 12/15/2017 07:04 amAnd having expensive probes sitting around in storage, possibly for decades or even centuries, doesn't make any sense. For now we can make do with our "eyes in the skies" such as Hubble, Spitzer and other orbiting observatories, as well as many execellent ground-based observatories.When LSST comes online, we should detect about 1 a year. This is derived from how long Pan-STARRS took to find 'Oumuamua so the error bars are large. But exceptionally unlikely to be decades. Even before LSST, we might start finding more, now we know they really exist and start looking in ernest e.g. staring at the solar apexSo once we have a better idea of frequency and the velocity distribution, a probe isn't such a silly idea. After all, these objects are by far the easiest bulk non-solar material we could study. --- Tony
One potential mission architecture is to make use of SpaceX’s Big Falcon Rocket (BFR) and their in-space refueling technique with a launch date in 2025. To achieve the required hyperbolic excess (at least 30 km/s) a Jupiter flyby combined with a close solar flyby (down to 3 solar radii), nicknamed “solar fryby” is envisioned.
When LSST comes online, we should detect about 1 a year. This is derived from how long Pan-STARRS took to find 'Oumuamua so the error bars are large. But exceptionally unlikely to be decades.
I'm sure FH could easily launch a payload and/or kicker stage capable of catching up using either chemical or electric propulsion...
Quote from: Req on 12/15/2017 09:39 amI'm sure FH could easily launch a payload and/or kicker stage capable of catching up using either chemical or electric propulsion...I don't think so. I doubt that even FH could launch enough chemical fuel to reach the required speed and electric propulsion as in SOLAR electric propulsion is not an option, because 'Oumuamua is already too far out.
I also feel that we should have probes ready to be launched at short notice , if an event like this occurs again.
Quote from: colbourne on 12/15/2017 05:09 amI also feel that we should have probes ready to be launched at short notice , if an event like this occurs again.Probes are not inert things that can just be used at any time. As an example, even electronic components deteriorate with time, especially capacitors.Not to mention that this is not Star Trek and probes must be made for a specific mission. As an example, power requirements differ a lot between missions.
Quote from: IRobot on 12/15/2017 11:15 amQuote from: colbourne on 12/15/2017 05:09 amI also feel that we should have probes ready to be launched at short notice , if an event like this occurs again.Probes are not inert things that can just be used at any time. As an example, even electronic components deteriorate with time, especially capacitors.Not to mention that this is not Star Trek and probes must be made for a specific mission. As an example, power requirements differ a lot between missions.We just learned that the soon to be launched GRACE-FO satellites are the flight spares of the original mission from 2002. That means they spent at least 15 years in storage.
Quote from: jpo234 on 12/15/2017 11:34 amQuote from: IRobot on 12/15/2017 11:15 amQuote from: colbourne on 12/15/2017 05:09 amI also feel that we should have probes ready to be launched at short notice , if an event like this occurs again.Probes are not inert things that can just be used at any time. As an example, even electronic components deteriorate with time, especially capacitors.Not to mention that this is not Star Trek and probes must be made for a specific mission. As an example, power requirements differ a lot between missions.We just learned that the soon to be launched GRACE-FO satellites are the flight spares of the original mission from 2002. That means they spent at least 15 years in storage.Flight spares is very different from a complete spacecraft.
This is bordering on sillyEven if a probe was ready an interplanetary trajectory requires a precisely timed launch. That is incompatible with this being the first launch of the FH.In science fiction books the first flights make great missions. In life, not. Even if FH could launch a probe to this target, it would need nuclear power, an RTG. There are none available, they have never been given to commercial entities, and the Heavy isn’t rated to launch them and couldn’t be for many launches. Only the Atlas V is, to my knowledge. Plus the speed required is excessive. New Horizons, the fastest direct launch ever, did not achieve that velocity. And it used the Centaur, with LOX-LH2, which is much better suited for interplanetary velocities. And the time to launch would have been last year. If all the impossible conditions were met, launching now and catching up in less than a decade would result in a high speed flyby without more propulsion magic. And it goes on and on. It’s a cute coincidence, the first interstellar asteroid flying by the first Heavy being assembled. But that’s as close as they get.
Quote from: IRobot on 12/15/2017 11:38 amQuote from: jpo234 on 12/15/2017 11:34 amQuote from: IRobot on 12/15/2017 11:15 amQuote from: colbourne on 12/15/2017 05:09 amI also feel that we should have probes ready to be launched at short notice , if an event like this occurs again.Probes are not inert things that can just be used at any time. As an example, even electronic components deteriorate with time, especially capacitors.Not to mention that this is not Star Trek and probes must be made for a specific mission. As an example, power requirements differ a lot between missions.We just learned that the soon to be launched GRACE-FO satellites are the flight spares of the original mission from 2002. That means they spent at least 15 years in storage.Flight spares is very different from a complete spacecraft.How is a probe different from a satellite (except for the trajectory)?
Quote from: jpo234 on 12/15/2017 11:34 amWe just learned that the soon to be launched GRACE-FO satellites are the flight spares of the original mission from 2002. That means they spent at least 15 years in storage.That was the just the structure. They were gutted and rebuilt. Also, they were for the same mission.
We just learned that the soon to be launched GRACE-FO satellites are the flight spares of the original mission from 2002. That means they spent at least 15 years in storage.
Quote from: jpo234 on 12/15/2017 11:40 amQuote from: IRobot on 12/15/2017 11:38 amQuote from: jpo234 on 12/15/2017 11:34 amQuote from: IRobot on 12/15/2017 11:15 amQuote from: colbourne on 12/15/2017 05:09 amI also feel that we should have probes ready to be launched at short notice , if an event like this occurs again.Probes are not inert things that can just be used at any time. As an example, even electronic components deteriorate with time, especially capacitors.Not to mention that this is not Star Trek and probes must be made for a specific mission. As an example, power requirements differ a lot between missions.We just learned that the soon to be launched GRACE-FO satellites are the flight spares of the original mission from 2002. That means they spent at least 15 years in storage.Flight spares is very different from a complete spacecraft.How is a probe different from a satellite (except for the trajectory)?GNC, thermal control, attitude control, etc. Earth satellites take advantage of being in close proximity to earth
I knew and understand this. What I meant in this context is: Why would one be able to keep a satellite in storage waiting for a mission and not a deep space probe?
Quote from: colbourne on 12/15/2017 05:09 amWith a Falcon Heavy rocket due to be launched and no important mission for it planned (other than car delivery to Mars), would it be possible to grab the opportunity and aim to catch up with , film and gather as much information on the Oumuamua, inter-stellar asteroid that recently passed Earth.It is probably just a lump of rock but as its 1:10 shape and high rotation rate make it appear an interesting object, apart from it origin probably being from another star.There are probably no other rockets planned to be launched soon that could undertake this task.I also feel that we should have probes ready to be launched at short notice , if an event like this occurs again.No way. Somebody did the math: https://www.centauri-dreams.org/?p=38728QuoteOne potential mission architecture is to make use of SpaceX’s Big Falcon Rocket (BFR) and their in-space refueling technique with a launch date in 2025. To achieve the required hyperbolic excess (at least 30 km/s) a Jupiter flyby combined with a close solar flyby (down to 3 solar radii), nicknamed “solar fryby” is envisioned.
w in 2025).2) perform "solar fry-by" Oberth boost at distance current thermal technologies can handle: - calculated that "fry by" at 3 solar radii would give sufficient kick to achieve rendezvous by itself. - perhaps "fry by" is possible with current tech at 30 or 300 solar radii (how close can we go safely?).
It’s a cute coincidence, the first interstellar asteroid flying by the first Heavy being assembled. But that’s as close as they get.
Quote from: mikelepage on 12/16/2017 04:14 amw in 2025).2) perform "solar fry-by" Oberth boost at distance current thermal technologies can handle: - calculated that "fry by" at 3 solar radii would give sufficient kick to achieve rendezvous by itself. - perhaps "fry by" is possible with current tech at 30 or 300 solar radii (how close can we go safely?).3) Deploy solar sail technology to make up the difference in delta-V.*In short - no. To get any meaningful benefit for this mission, it needs to be very, very close to the sun.
w in 2025).2) perform "solar fry-by" Oberth boost at distance current thermal technologies can handle: - calculated that "fry by" at 3 solar radii would give sufficient kick to achieve rendezvous by itself. - perhaps "fry by" is possible with current tech at 30 or 300 solar radii (how close can we go safely?).3) Deploy solar sail technology to make up the difference in delta-V.*
But I guess I'm confused by your answer. I've always understood the size of the Oberth effect to be proportional to the velocity of the spacecraft when the burn is made (at perihelion in this instance). In order to get to the "fry-by" transfer orbit in the first place you've given your spacecraft a Jupiter gravity assist, so the semi-major axis of that transfer orbit has to be about 2.6 AU. Given this large semi-major axis, how big a difference does a perihelion distance is 0.014 AU (3 solar radii), versus 0.14 AU (30 solar radii), really make? especially when it can make such a difference to the mass/complexity of your shielding apparatus?
Quote from: mikelepage on 12/18/2017 03:43 amBut I guess I'm confused by your answer. I've always understood the size of the Oberth effect to be proportional to the velocity of the spacecraft when the burn is made (at perihelion in this instance). In order to get to the "fry-by" transfer orbit in the first place you've given your spacecraft a Jupiter gravity assist, so the semi-major axis of that transfer orbit has to be about 2.6 AU. Given this large semi-major axis, how big a difference does a perihelion distance is 0.014 AU (3 solar radii), versus 0.14 AU (30 solar radii), really make? especially when it can make such a difference to the mass/complexity of your shielding apparatus?The difference in velocity at perihelion between those two orbits is very small(*), less than TWO HUNDRED AND FORTY kilometers per second difference.(*) Just in case it is not obvious, at this point the Sarcasm meter is maxed out
Wonder if you could run a solar thermal propulsion rig of sorts during the fryby, using a propellant cooled sunshield as a propellant boiler for a deep solar oberth maneuver?
Okay. Thanks for showing your working.*(*)Still maxed outFor anyone else who actually wants to learn something on this forum without being snarked at...
Quote from: Pete on 12/18/2017 06:51 amQuote from: mikelepage on 12/18/2017 03:43 amBut I guess I'm confused by your answer. I've always understood the size of the Oberth effect to be proportional to the velocity of the spacecraft when the burn is made (at perihelion in this instance). In order to get to the "fry-by" transfer orbit in the first place you've given your spacecraft a Jupiter gravity assist, so the semi-major axis of that transfer orbit has to be about 2.6 AU. Given this large semi-major axis, how big a difference does a perihelion distance is 0.014 AU (3 solar radii), versus 0.14 AU (30 solar radii), really make? especially when it can make such a difference to the mass/complexity of your shielding apparatus?The difference in velocity at perihelion between those two orbits is very small(*), less than TWO HUNDRED AND FORTY kilometers per second difference.(*) Just in case it is not obvious, at this point the Sarcasm meter is maxed outOkay. Thanks for showing your working.*(*)Still maxed outFor anyone else who actually wants to learn something on this forum without being snarked at, the correct formula to use is as follows:V= (2GM/r - GM/a)^0.5where:r is the current altitude of the craft above the sun, anda is the semi major axis.So for a=2.6 (coming from Jupiter gravity assist):where r is 3 solar radii, V=356km/swhere r is 10 solar radii V=194km/swhere r is 30 solar radii, V= 111km/s
And no, I don't think we have the technology to build anything that can survive at 3 solar radii, except as a passive and heavily-shielded package.Having to put an active probe there, including supplying it with a few dozen km/s of delta-v ability, is way beyond us.
A more relevant question is the Delta-V required to intercept Oumuamua? For a launch in 2020.
It can be seen that a minimum 𝐶3 exists, which is about 26.5 km/s (703km²/s²). However, this minimum value rapidly increases when the launch date is moved into the future. At the same time, a larger mission duration leads to a decrease of the required 𝐶3 but also implies an encounter with the asteroid at a larger distance from the Sun. A realistic launch date for a probe would be at least 10 years in the future (2027). At that point, the hyperbolic excess velocity is already at 37.4km/s (1400km²/s²) with a mission duration of about 15 years, which makes such an orbital insertion extremely challenging with conventional launches in the absence of a planetary fly-by.
Quote from: Zed_Noir on 12/19/2017 07:17 pmA more relevant question is the Delta-V required to intercept Oumuamua? For a launch in 2020.Considering direct launch.From a blog version of the recent paper.Quote It can be seen that a minimum 𝐶3 exists, which is about 26.5 km/s (703km²/s²). However, this minimum value rapidly increases when the launch date is moved into the future. At the same time, a larger mission duration leads to a decrease of the required 𝐶3 but also implies an encounter with the asteroid at a larger distance from the Sun. A realistic launch date for a probe would be at least 10 years in the future (2027). At that point, the hyperbolic excess velocity is already at 37.4km/s (1400km²/s²) with a mission duration of about 15 years, which makes such an orbital insertion extremely challenging with conventional launches in the absence of a planetary fly-by.So, at the moment, about 30km/s from LEO.Falcon heavy launching one of the centre stages, and then being fully refuelled in LEO,, with a falcon 1 as payload.(there are issues, which I will neglect)This may with a following wind get you to 20km/s, and a ton payload, being generous.That ton payload being three stages of solid rockets might get five kilos to 30km/s - being optimistic.I am sure you can do a probe that will return some data weighing 5kg and flying by the asteroid at ~10km/s - that this is not precluded by the laws of physics.But, you're going to need a tiny RTG of some form, and novel optical comms, and you're not going to get much data on a rapid poorly targetted flyby in badly lit conditions.The above is the sort of thing you can almost justify by handwaving if you avoid looking really hard at any of it.In reality, you're going to need to put very considerably more thought into this, and it's probably going to either end up as being a large RTG/reactor craft with a big ion engine on the biggest launcher you can find, or something actually preplanned and put in place in advance.<snip>
Gravity assistance from Jupiter is useful if you want to accelerate in the plane of the planets. I am not sure it is useful in this case where IIRC Oumuamua's path is inclined at 60°.
It's hard to judge how much detail to include..One would expect anyone that quotes Oberth effect, to have a very fundamental understanding of orbital dynamics. At least to the extent of knowing that an orbit at 1/10th the height will be a LOT faster.
Quote from: ThereIWas3 on 12/19/2017 10:44 pmGravity assistance from Jupiter is useful if you want to accelerate in the plane of the planets. I am not sure it is useful in this case where IIRC Oumuamua's path is inclined at 60°.I believe that gravity assist is the best way to change the plane of your trajectory, which you'll need if you are going for any gravity assist maneuvers.
... Sometimes you just gotta learn the math.
Or play enough KSP to get an intuitive feel for what is likely.
Doesn't Jupiter cross every plane intersecting the sun every 6 years?
To get a better sense how fast Oumuamuaa go, how long will it take to reach the same distance from the Sun as Voyager 1 (launched in 1977) which is now 141 AU (2.11×1010 km), approximately 13 billion miles (21 billion km)?
Quote from: ThereIWas3 on 12/19/2017 10:44 pmGravity assistance from Jupiter is useful if you want to accelerate in the plane of the planets. I am not sure it is useful in this case where IIRC Oumuamua's path is inclined at 60°.I was assuming something like a two stage vehicle hanging out in a distant orbit from jupiter, or trojan, a ~1km/s or so boost to get it headed towards Jupiter, falls inwards from 'infinity' getting ~55km/s or so at perigee, burn then a couple of km/s at perigee, combined with getting to pick which side of jupiter you fall on gets you ~10km/s in a large slice of possible directions, as well as the possibility of just burning in other directions with your 3km/s.