Poll

Spacex hasn't launched a booster for a third time yet.  Will they do it in 2018?  How many times?

1
8 (8.4%)
2
12 (12.6%)
3
23 (24.2%)
4
11 (11.6%)
5
11 (11.6%)
6
7 (7.4%)
7
3 (3.2%)
8
3 (3.2%)
9
1 (1.1%)
10
7 (7.4%)
11
0 (0%)
12
2 (2.1%)
13
0 (0%)
14
2 (2.1%)
15
0 (0%)
16
0 (0%)
17
0 (0%)
18
1 (1.1%)
19
0 (0%)
20
0 (0%)
More than 20!!!
2 (2.1%)
None. No booster will be reused a second time in 2018 (launched a third time)
2 (2.1%)

Total Members Voted: 95

Voting closed: 01/12/2018 02:29 PM


Author Topic: POLL: Number of times Spacex will reuse a stage for a second time in 2018  (Read 4147 times)

Offline dies2much

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Will we have to wait for Block V for a second reuse?

Cross references

Main number of launches poll:         
- http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43942
Number of successful landings poll:
- http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44407
« Last Edit: 12/13/2017 02:35 PM by Lar »

Offline Lar

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5 is way too few for an upper bound, also you omitted 0 as a choice.  Also your end date isn't standard, way too short. Also you didn't crosslink other polls. Also the name doesn't match convention.

Changed end date to be about 30 days out, added some choices, renamed poll to match convention (all polls go in the Polls section and start with "POLL:", added crosslink to landed stages poll.

Interesting poll. My vote is 7 since I voted 25 successful landings and 30 flights.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline rockets4life97

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Maybe I misunderstood, but I thought this poll was asking if in 2018 we'd see the 3rd/4th/5th flight of the SAME Booster.

Offline Lar

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Maybe I misunderstood, but I thought this poll was asking if in 2018 we'd see the 3rd/4th/5th flight of the SAME Booster.
no, parse it again...
"reuse a stage for a second time"  == 3 flights on one booster, initial and two reuses
"number of times SpaceX will" == how many boosters will get to do this.

So far NO booster has flown a third time. Some statements have indicated that for block 3 and 4, 3 is the max.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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I voted 2. Various factors:

- I donít think it will happen until block 5
- First block 5 flight in Feb/March
- I think at least 40% of flights will be new boosters
- Guessing itíll be Q3 before gap between uses of same booster is less than 2 months

So Iím guessing a small number of boosters thatíll have time to get 3 flights into 2018

Online ZachS09

My opinion is that only boosters that have flown two LEO missions are eligible for a second reflight.

With that being said, I'm gonna guess that seven of these instances will occur next year.
« Last Edit: 12/08/2018 04:56 AM by ZachS09 »
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Offline mme

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My opinion is that only boosters that have flown two LEO missions are eligible for a second reflight.

With that being said, I'm going guess seven of these instances will occur next year.
2018 is the year of Block 5 which I suspect should be reusable on virtually any recoverable mission.
Space is not Highlander.  There can, and will, be more than one.

Offline AncientU

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4

One booster will fly 4 times (likely first Block 5), so that's 2 flights more than second time.
Two additional boosters will fly a third time, one block 5 and one previous block (either Iridium Next or CRS-xx).
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Offline wannamoonbase

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I picked 3 and I think that is slightly aggressive.

They have to introduce the Block 5, recover, study, reuse then reuse a booster for the 3rd time for the first time.

If they manage to reach 3 it might be late in 2018.  But they thatís only a year away and we have plenty to entertain ourselves with, FH, Dragon 2, block 5, high flight rate, star link and flying electric cars.

Edit: luckily the existing stock of used Block 3ís give them a head start and on number of launches.
« Last Edit: 12/24/2017 02:49 AM by wannamoonbase »
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Offline rockets4life97

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After Iridium 4, we can be pretty confident that the remaining block IIIs will only fly twice.

Do we know whether block IVs will fly three times? If they will and SpaceX doesn't have to wait for block V, then I think we would see more third flights in 2018.

Offline deadman719

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My vote is four. It may a little high, but I underestimated SpaceX in 2017.

Offline CraigLieb

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The title was confusing! You saidĒ reuse a second timeĒ and I thought it was USE a second time so I guessed 12. Likely way too high. My own fault for not carefully reading the question before voting.
Colonize Mars!

Offline Pete

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The only stage type that will re-fly 2+ times is the Block V
.
The *first* block V has not flown yet, but is due rather soon.

I believe by end of 2018 we will have a nice stable of returned Block V first stages,
a (small) handful of stages that have flown a second time,
but none that will get launched a third time.
.
The limitation here is not the ability to re-fly, but the timezone since the first flight,
and the introduction of Block V preventing "older" models from being tested to third flight.
« Last Edit: 12/30/2017 01:24 AM by Pete »

Offline vapour_nudge

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Twice

(I like your location Pete above)

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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The SpaceX webcast for Merah Putih today said that the plan is to fly the 1046 booster for a third time (ie second reuse) later this year.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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The SpaceX webcast for Merah Putih today said that the plan is to fly the 1046 booster for a third time (ie second reuse) later this year.

So we now know for sure this is the imminent Spaceflight SSO-A launch:

https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1063310464870834176

Looks like that will be the only flight this year where the booster has its third flight (unless NASA has progressed to allowing a block 5 to be reused more than once for CRS-16).

Offline Hog

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In 2018, how many Space- Ex first stages will be used for a 3rd mission?

A more interesting POLL.
How many times can refried beans, be fried, before becoming over-fried? j/k

In biology the terms gravidity refers to the number of times a female has been pregnant, and parity refers to the number of times a successful birth has occurred.

I suppose in the era of reusable vehicles, the parity of said vehicles will be of some relevance.  Some of the shuttle SRB components must have a quite high parity number, unfortunately in that example there would also be a number for abortus, or pregnancies that were not successful.

I guess someone had better start the gravidity, parity and abortus charts for the sPace ex vehicles.
Paul

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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The count is now at 1. The question now is will there be a second one in 2018. There is only 2 F9 flights remaining for 2018 without a specification of a booster.

Online Zed_Noir

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In 2018, how many Space- Ex first stages will be used for a 3rd mission?
<snip>
The count is now at 1. The question now is will there be a second one in 2018. There is only 2 F9 flights remaining for 2018 without a specification of a booster.

The final Iridium bus flight is using B1049. IIRC the GPS III-1 flight is using B1054. So that only leave the CRS-16 Dragon flight without a specified booster core.


Offline Lar

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The count is now at 1. The question now is will there be a second one in 2018. There is only 2 F9 flights remaining for 2018 without a specification of a booster.
Not quite at one yet, there could be an abort or mishap that prevents launch until next year, or even a mishap that destroys the booster well prior to launch. Let's not count our chickens pre-hatch.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

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