Author Topic: Predictions for 2018  (Read 22074 times)

Offline moreno7798

Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #60 on: 01/08/2018 03:59 AM »
Alright. Here's what I believe will come true for 2018:

1.  SpaceX has 31 scheduled launches for 2018. I say they complete 30 successful launches.

2.  SpaceX's FH maiden launch and Midnight Cherry’s Mars insertion are both successful.

3.  At AIC 2018, Musk unveils the details of the ISRU machinery as well as the first habitats for the first missions to Mars. He also details the life support systems for BFR.

4.  SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar is pushed back to 2019.

5.  EMDrive technology will stagnate with no progress made for the whole year.

6.  Virgin Galactic continues it’s extremely slow work on SS2. No manned Suborbital flights in 2018

7.  Blue Origin achieves it’s first manned Suborbital flight just to claim a “Perceived” victory on SpaceX.

8.  Given SpaceX’s E2E BFR plans, Blue origin announces its own plans for E2E trips.

9.  TESS Launches in June rather then March

10.  At AIC 2018, eight months into it’s voyage to Mars, Musk unveils that he installed some 4K, 60fps, 15 stops of DR cameras on the Midnight Cherry Roadster. Glorious HDR video of Mars is played on the large screens. ;D

11.  A concrete resolution to the Tabby's Star mystery remains elusive with ETI coming back into the picture.

12.  SpaceX does not test fly a crewed dragon 2 in 2018

13.  Running prediction 2017-present:  SLS starts to suffer a slow dragged out death once BFR starts to fly and the price per flight to orbit and re-usability becomes grossly evident of NASA's dressed-up 1960's tech.
« Last Edit: 01/12/2018 11:09 PM by moreno7798 »

Offline Johnnyhinbos

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Predictions for 2018
« Reply #61 on: 01/08/2018 01:44 PM »
I like all these predictions, but a question for the mods...

Is there a cutoff date for this? [1] Or will this thread become like the hiring of the next NASA Administrator [2]...?

[1] I have an idea, let’s create a prediction thread to predict when the prediction thread will be closed . [3]

[2] I.E., lasting well into 2018

[3] Of course, then we’ll have to have a prediction thread that will predict when the prediction thread of when the prediction thread of when the prediction thread will close. [1][4]

[4] You’re welcome Lar, though of course the irony is that this footnote will never get hit, so you’ll (justly)[5] never get your thank you.

[5] Justly because of all the infinite recursive loops you’ve created over time with no concern for the consequences...
« Last Edit: 01/08/2018 01:45 PM by Johnnyhinbos »
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Offline jebbo

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #62 on: 01/08/2018 01:56 PM »
To be topical, I was going to raise the spectre of speculative predictions but my brain suffered from meltdown  ;D

--- Tony

Offline moreno7798

Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #63 on: 01/08/2018 08:45 PM »
I like all these predictions, but a question for the mods...

Is there a cutoff date for this? [1] Or will this thread become like the hiring of the next NASA Administrator [2]...?

[1] I have an idea, let’s create a prediction thread to predict when the prediction thread will be closed . [3]

[2] I.E., lasting well into 2018

[3] Of course, then we’ll have to have a prediction thread that will predict when the prediction thread of when the prediction thread of when the prediction thread will close. [1][4]

[4] You’re welcome Lar, though of course the irony is that this footnote will never get hit, so you’ll (justly)[5] never get your thank you.

[5] Justly because of all the infinite recursive loops you’ve created over time with no concern for the consequences...

First week of January will be good cutoff.

Offline Lar

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #64 on: 01/08/2018 09:59 PM »
End of this week (Friday 12 Jan 2018 at 23:59:59 UTC) for "new" predictions. ... not going to delete them or lock the thread[1] but you have my blessing to mock anyone predicting things after that...[2]

The 2017 prediction thread isn't locked, but the people posting there are posting their tallies of successes/fails ...

1 -  we could lock this thread and then unlock it in early 2019, but that seems like actual work...
2 - I never actually said that. I would never bless someone mocking someone else.
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Offline Kryten

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #65 on: 01/12/2018 10:24 PM »
 Nearly missed the deadline due to illness, and had a terrible run for last year's prediction, so just going to keep this brief.

USA
SpaceX have between 25 and 30 launches
LauncherOne flies to orbit towards the end of the year
OrbATK NGL survives the year
SLS and Orion survive essentially unscathed, other than delays
EXOS breach the Karman line
FH maiden launch is broadly successful

India
Chandrayaan 2 is successful
SCE-200 testing is promising, but won't reach full design power in 2018

China
CASIC make vague hints about a 100+ ton SHLV design
CASC shows detailed plans for reusability

Russia
SHLV basic design settles, and a name is chosen.

Other nations
NK has at least one orbital sucess
As does Iran
Electron reaches orbit but doesn't establish a regular launch cadence before the end of the year

General
Launch totals are USA>China>Russia
Another small rocket company comes 'out of nowhere' for most people with a high-altitude test launch, 10+km
3 or less complete failures from established players (i.e. excluding NK and Iran)

Offline Toast

Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #66 on: 01/12/2018 10:43 PM »
I'll keep it short:

SpaceX will launch more than 24 times
Bridenstine's nomination will be withdrawn
Russia will have at least two failures
ULA will select BE-4
Both Boeing and SpaceX's crewed flights will slip to 2019

Offline TheKutKu

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #67 on: 01/12/2018 10:49 PM »
-100+ launches in 2018 (both successful and failed)

SpaceX:

-25-27  launches for SpaceX, DM-1 flies in the last two months of the year, 2 Falcon Heavies are launched.
-Block 5 core flies in June
-"Full scale" raptor is tested, we get an update for the BFR with minimal changes of the rocket, but there will be more information on the ISRU
-At the end of the year the Boca Chica launch center won't be oppened until mid- 2019
-They will fly more than half their missions with reused cores (at least one for FH), a core will be reused two times this year.
-We will see an official Starlink announcement. Lot of hype around it.
-Falcon Heavy launch will have a lot of media coverage.
-Fairings will be reused in the second half of the year.

ULA:

- No launch failure
- 9-11 launches
- BE-4 will be officially selected for Vulcan but the rocket will look less realistic than ever at the end of the year.

Blue Origin:

-10-15 New Shepard launches, including one that doesn't go completly as planned but doesn't result in a LOV
- They don't launch anyone to space in 2018

Rocket Lab:

-3 launches in 2018, one is a total failure.

US:

-Stratolaunch flies
-No vector rocket reaches orbit
-XS-1 will still be in development
-Lunar X prize competitors will not land on the moon

NASA:

-Both Insight, Osiris Rex succeed
-Plans to land on the moon aren't more serious in december 2018 than they were one year before
-TESS is launched around may
-We will hear more about launching Europa Clipper on a FH or NG
-A titan probe will be considered

Russia:

-17-22 launches, 2 failures.
-Nauka isn't launched

China:

-25-27 launches
-Chang'e 4 will succeed
-We won't hear much from their RLV program but they will keep working on it

Europe:

-10 launches, no failure
-Ariane 6 will still be in development, official statement is that reuse is still uneconomical
-Callisto will receive more funding and will have a more optimistic schedule, around early 2020, At the end of the year prometheus is scheduled to test fire in early 2019.

Other:

-5 Japanese launches
-5 indian launches
-1 israeli and 1 iranian launch
-1 NK orbital launch and at least 2 ICBM test including one that goes quite a bit further downrange and survives reentry. In one year there will be no doubt that they have working ICBM with megaton warheads.
« Last Edit: 01/13/2018 04:40 PM by TheKutKu »

Offline Svetoslav

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #68 on: 01/22/2018 11:26 AM »
My first prediction for 2018 came true, for smallsat launchers: "We may see a rocket going to orbit between December 2017 and January 2019."

And it happened earlier than I personally expected.

Offline Bubbinski

Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #69 on: 01/22/2018 04:17 PM »
One of my predictions already bit the dust. No LEGO shuttle, the Ideas Shuttle stack did not get approved. :(
I'll even excitedly look forward to "flags and footprints" and suborbital missions. Just fly...somewhere.

Offline Lar

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #70 on: 01/22/2018 06:55 PM »
One of my predictions already bit the dust. No LEGO shuttle, the Ideas Shuttle stack did not get approved. :(
We're both in mourning.  However my wallet is dancing for joy.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #71 on: 01/24/2018 04:07 PM »
Well, looks like those of you who said Google Lunar XPrize will be won were wrong, as were those of you who thought it would be delayed. The GLX is over.

However, if you made a prediction as to how many will fly, like I did, there is hope yet!
« Last Edit: 01/24/2018 04:10 PM by JEF_300 »

Offline Eric Hedman

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #72 on: 01/24/2018 06:39 PM »
Well, looks like those of you who said Google Lunar XPrize will be won were wrong, as were those of you who thought it would be delayed. The GLX is over.

However, if you made a prediction as to how many will fly, like I did, there is hope yet!
Here's an article about it:  https://www.ien.com/product-development/video/20989914/googles-20m-lunarx-prize-will-end-with-no-winner?utm_medium=email&utm_source=Industrial%20Technology%20Today%2001242018&utm_term=18801&[email protected]

Offline Svetoslav

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #73 on: 01/24/2018 06:52 PM »
My prediction was : "More delays for the Google Lunar Xprize program. We may see a launch attempt in 2018, but I don't believe it will be successful."

So far, the Google Xprize was canceled, but Moon Express still hopes to launch in 2018. I never meant the prize anyway :)

Offline StealthGhost

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #74 on: 01/26/2018 05:38 PM »
Expect allot of delays. Allot of these missions might be pushed to the 2020’s. SLS was going to launch Orion around the moon by late 2018 but since has been delayed to 2020.

Offline vapour_nudge

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #75 on: 01/27/2018 02:17 AM »
More predictions please ;) I am reading the thread actively and I'm a little disappointed it's less active than previous years ;)

1) OK, me too. Exactly 100 successful orbital launches worldwide


So does the Ariane launch count as a success?? That old dilemma. Does the Zuma launch count as a success? We're either at 10, 11 or 12 successes - which is it?

Online mme

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #76 on: 01/27/2018 05:44 AM »
More predictions please ;) I am reading the thread actively and I'm a little disappointed it's less active than previous years ;)

1) OK, me too. Exactly 100 successful orbital launches worldwide


So does the Ariane launch count as a success?? That old dilemma. Does the Zuma launch count as a success? We're either at 10, 11 or 12 successes - which is it?
10.  Zuma is a failure (as far as we can tell). We can go in circles about whose failure it was, but it was a failure.  The Ariane launch is a partial failure - separation was no where near the intended orbit.
Space is not Highlander.  There can, and will, be more than one.

Offline Lar

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #77 on: 01/28/2018 10:43 PM »
10.  Zuma is a failure (as far as we can tell). We can go in circles about whose failure it was, but it was a failure.  The Ariane launch is a partial failure - separation was no where near the intended orbit.

Launch success. Mission status still unclear but probable failure of payload or customer provided equipment.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #78 on: 01/28/2018 11:37 PM »
Zuma is definitely a launch success. Any failure is not on Falcon 9. Heck, there's even a, say, 5% chance it succeeded and we've all been misled. There's been no official acknowledgement of even a payload failure.
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Offline deruch

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #79 on: 01/29/2018 12:06 AM »
Zuma: Mission failure/Launch Success  (/5% chance of the old CIA double bluff). 

Ariane 5-VA241: Mission success (partial or full depending on updated Al Yah-3 expected lifetime in planned orbit)/Launch failure. 

Weird year so far.
« Last Edit: 01/29/2018 12:08 AM by deruch »
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