Author Topic: Predictions for 2018  (Read 24857 times)

Offline Star One

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Predictions for 2018
« Reply #40 on: 12/31/2017 09:32 AM »
The maiden flight of FH will fail spectacularly damaging the launch pad in the process. Otherwise all other Space X launches will be successful.

The launch of JWST will be delayed again until 2020.

Blue Origin will continue to make slow & steady progress. But will fly no humans.

ULA will pick BE-4 for Vulcan.

Insight will successfully land on Mars.

Electron will get into orbit on its second flight.

Planet 9 will finally be discovered.
« Last Edit: 12/31/2017 09:34 AM by Star One »

Offline Kaputnik

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #41 on: 12/31/2017 01:53 PM »
I'm just going to focus on the areas that I follow most closely, rather than sounding off on matters that I have no knowledge of :)

99 launches in total worldwide. 5 failures.

SpaceX
- FH flies in February, nominally successful mission but some anomalies lead to the next flight being 3elayed until towards the end of the year.
- F9 remains the most flown vehicle in the world, with 23 flights. I think there's an even chance of a failure. Fewer landings than expected as backlog of old boosters is used up, but all landing attempts are successful. Most hot GTO missions are flown in expendable mode by older boosters.
- they finally get some fairings back, and fly a reused one by the end of the year
- Raptor makes progress but does not yet meet design goals for mass and isp
- a boilerplate BFS grasshopper will be unveiled as the 'wow' moment of 2018, but will not yet fly
-D2 flies unmanned;  crewed flight pushed back to 2019

SLS/Orion will continue, inexplicably, as the govt is too busy dealing with more pressing matters.

JWST will slip into 2019
Waiting for joy and raptor

Offline Star One

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #42 on: 12/31/2017 03:15 PM »
I'm just going to focus on the areas that I follow most closely, rather than sounding off on matters that I have no knowledge of :)

99 launches in total worldwide. 5 failures.

SpaceX
- FH flies in February, nominally successful mission but some anomalies lead to the next flight being 3elayed until towards the end of the year.
- F9 remains the most flown vehicle in the world, with 23 flights. I think there's an even chance of a failure. Fewer landings than expected as backlog of old boosters is used up, but all landing attempts are successful. Most hot GTO missions are flown in expendable mode by older boosters.
- they finally get some fairings back, and fly a reused one by the end of the year
- Raptor makes progress but does not yet meet design goals for mass and isp
- a boilerplate BFS grasshopper will be unveiled as the 'wow' moment of 2018, but will not yet fly
-D2 flies unmanned;  crewed flight pushed back to 2019

SLS/Orion will continue, inexplicably, as the govt is too busy dealing with more pressing matters.

JWST will slip into 2019

JWST has already slipped into 2019.

Offline Avron

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #43 on: 12/31/2017 03:52 PM »
Prediction 2018

FH flies twice - both successful
Spacex F9 flies 21 times
Spacex get fairings back undamaged but does re fly them
JWST slips
SLS / Orion slips
BO flies first person
ULA - nothing new for year
Boeing Starliner and D2 both fly

Offline the_other_Doug

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #44 on: 12/31/2017 04:26 PM »
Here's a one-off prediction:

Insight will launch and land with no problems.  Upon deployment, it will become obvious that some idiot, in an attempt to make absolutely certain that the seismometer instrument will not shift during launch, has spot-welded it to the lander deck.  Thus making the entire experiment useless.
-Doug  (With my shield, not yet upon it)

Offline FishInferno

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #45 on: 12/31/2017 05:21 PM »
- SpaceX flies more than 20 times but less than 30, all successful
- All attempted booster landings are successful
- Falcon Heavy does not fail
- Reused boosters are now the norm, but SpaceX doesn't reuse any non-Block V boosters more than once, and several are simply expended on their second flight
- By 2019, reused boosters are not sold at a discount; the customer doesn't choose whether they fly on a new core
- Lunar flyby slips to 2019
- Dragon 2 flies with crew
- At least one, but less than five Starlink satellites are launched for testing
- Announcement of full-scale Starlink deployment beginning in 2018, but this will likely slip
- Full-scale Raptor firing, construction begins on a suborbital BFS test vehicle
- Elon presents minor changes/progress updates at IAC 2018, but the overall architecture is still the same
- SpaceX submits BFR into the EELV competition; it will eventually be selected by the USAF but not necessarily in 2018. BFR ends up being funded primarily by the Air Force

- SLS slips to 2020

- BO does not fly a human in 2018, but there are several unmanned flights
- New Glenn factory is completed
- Full-duration BE4 firing in 2H 2018
- Unveiling of a manned orbital spacecraft to be flown on New Glenn
- BO needs to pick up the pace if they are to become a real competitor to SpaceX

- ULA continues with Vulcan
- ULA selects BE4, although Aerojet doesn't let go easily

- Arianespace continues with Ariane 6
- Ariane and ULA remain in denial about SpaceX

- China shows progress developing a reusable launcher in the same class as Falcon 9

- Russia unveils the design for a reusable launcher, but no significant progress is made

- Electron successfully reaches orbit, followed by one commercial mission
Comparing SpaceX and SLS is like comparing paying people to plant fruit trees with merely digging holes and filling them.  - Robotbeat

Online mme

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #46 on: 12/31/2017 08:46 PM »
2018 Predictions

Worldwide
- 100+ launches
- 5 Failures

ESA
- Continues progress on Ariane 6 based on current design targeting 2020 launch.

ISRO
- Announces a reusable booster program for a future generation of launch vehicles expected operational sometime after 2025.

China
- Continues reusable booster development but in 2018 we won't hear much more than they are working on it.

ULA
- Continues progress on Vulcan, no modifications related to reusability, double down on SMART "in the future."
- Continues successful launch streak.
- Down selects to the BE-4.

Blue
- Flies NS tests with humans before SpaceX launches astronauts.  Regular service to start in 2019.

SpaceX
- 30 successful launches including 2 by FH.
- Dragon Crew will complete test flight with astronauts.
- Tests a full scale pre-production Raptor at mission thrust and duration.

Boeing
- CST-100 crewed test will slip to 2019.
Space is not Highlander.  There can, and will, be more than one.

Offline yokem55

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #47 on: 12/31/2017 11:56 PM »
I'll get one of these in:

SpaceX:
- 24 Falcon 9 flights using 10 boosters. All successful.
- 1 landing failure on an especially hot GTO flight. 2 boosters are ditched at sea without attempting recovery.
- Falcon Heavy first flight is mostly successful, but with enough anomalies that Falcon 9 is grounded for a month to clear any commonalities. Second FH flight with all Block 5 cores happens towards end of year.
- Crewed Dragon 2 flight happens at the very end of the year.
- Fairing recovery happens, but the recovered fairings are proving difficult to recertify for flight
- Production size Raptor gets to full chamber pressure.
- The first 25 production Starlink sats have been made, but are awaiting launch.
- Construction of a BFS structural test article has begun, with a test facility at Boca Chica being built.

Blue Origin:
- Crewed New Shepherd flights begin. At least 4 paid flight participants ride it.
- BE-4 reaches full chamber pressure, but has substantial anomalies in the firing.
- The first New Glenn test articles are manufactured.
- DOJ begins an anti trust compliant against Amazon. This causes a large decline in Amazon's stock value, and thus Bezos dramatically slows down his spending on Blue.

ULA:
- Has 1 Seriously Off Nominal mission that requires extraordinary measures to salvage.
- Centaur V is announced to be powered by BE-3U.
- Vulcan CDR happens assuming a 5.4m methalox core.
- Down select on Vulcan main propulsion happens, and AR-1 is removed from consideration. However at the Air Force's prodding after the anomalous BE-4 firing, and with grimaces from both SpaceX and ULA, Raptor is added for consideration. ULA openly uses this to get Blue to be a little less Gradatim with BE-4 but expresses deep skepticism of a Raptor based design due to the need for multiple engines with each needing a second turbopump and the hard requirement for sub-cooled propellent. They also make a lot of snide comments about Raptor's 'design stability'.
- Following Sen. McCain's death, and with some pressure from the White House, the RD-180 ban is lifted all together during the lame duck after the November elections. ULA presses on with Vulcan none the less.

Boeing:
- Uncrewed Starliner is delayed due to investigation of ULA's off nominal flight.
- Begins talks to buy AJR for assets related to SLS.
 
Grumman-OATK:
- NGLV is cancelled.
- Makes noises of needing a lot of committed up front money soon for SLS Black Knight boosters.
- Cygnus continues to be the only payload for Antares. There is a lot of talk of canceling Antares for CRS-2 and just launching on ULA.

ILS/Proton:
- Rumors of a suspension of operations due to a lack of orders are circulating.

Arianespace:
- Keeps doing the same thing.
- It becomes openly expected that Ariane 6 will be an interim vehicle.

NASA:
- SLS/Orion is all but officially delayed to 2021 but continues to plod on due to support in Congress.
- Europa Clipper is formally delayed to 2025. Congress puts a hard requirement it be launched on SLS and bans consideration of other launch vehicles. The follow on lander is cancelled.
- JWST is slightly damaged during shipment to Kourou and delayed to 2020.
 - The initial images of MU69 from New Horizons' approach are highly confusing.
- Opportunity continues to trudge along.
- Curiosity gets itself stuck for a couple of months but is able to be freed.
- Insight launches and lands successfully.
- TESS launches successfully.
- Dawn reaches a successful EOM.
- One of the Voyagers detects via odd/unexpected trajectory shift that it has flown by a small body at fairly close range. A search finds the small body.

Misc. Astronomy:
- A Planet 9 candidate is leaked prior to it being confirmed. It is ultimately found not to be a planet. The search for Planet 9 continues.
- Another extra-solar body passing through the solar system is detected.
- A super earth sized exoplanet in a star's habitable zone is observed to have an atmosphere containing water.
- A mostly predictable theory for the behavior of  Tabby's star is published and confirmed.

We'll see how I do....

Offline deruch

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #48 on: 01/01/2018 12:09 AM »
I'm trying to avoid any wishy-washy predictions this year, so these will only be about things I feel like I can make a specific guess at.

World
-104 total orbital launch attempts.
-3 failures

SpaceX:
-27 orbital launches (2 FH + 25 F9), all successful.
-Dragon 2 DM-1 (uncrewed) launches after June 1st, DM-2 (crewed) is first publicly rescheduled for 2nd half of December before moving into 2019. 
-In-flight abort takes place and is (awesomely) successful, but the booster used is destroyed.   
-Reuse adoption continues to expand for commercial launches, NASA/SpaceX have discussions to allow all CRS missions to reuse boosters (NASA reserves veto for specific missions).  However, not yet accepted for NASA Launch Services or USAF EELV missions.
-First fully intact fairing half is recovered in April but not reused.  Will be put through its testing paces so that future fairings can be reused (which doesn't happen until 2019).   
-Elon doesn't speak at IAC 2018.
-Commercial circumlunar flight delayed to 2019Q4.

ULA:
-10 orbital launches, all successful.
-Vulcan selects BE-4. 
-Sells first Atlas V launch for Cygnus as part of CRS2.

Boeing:
-OFT launches in October.

NASA:
-TESS launches in late April.
-Insight launches and successfully lands at Mars.
 
Russia
-No launch failures. 
-Nauka delayed to 2019. 

China:
-CZ-5 launches successfully in November. 
Shouldn't reality posts be in "Advanced concepts"?  --Nomadd

Online vapour_nudge

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #49 on: 01/01/2018 07:02 AM »
More predictions please ;) I am reading the thread actively and I'm a little disappointed it's less active than previous years ;)

1) OK, me too. Exactly 100 successful orbital launches worldwide

2) No manned launches from US soil

3) Boeing beats SpaceX and launches Starliner first

4) Falcon Heavy fails and all other SpaceX launches and planned landings are successful

5) MLM is delayed further to 2020

6) No Russian launch failures

7) A surprise Israeli orbital launch

8 ) 3 moons found orbiting 2014 MU69

9) 1 Indian launch failure

10) 10 successful Atlas launches

11)  :) Blue Origin offer to launch Europa Clipper free albeit later

12)  :'( BepiColombo launch is delayed

13) SETI finds nothing (I needed to be certain I'd get at least one right)

Doing well so far for 2018, one day in and no Russian launch failures

Offline Lar

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #50 on: 01/01/2018 04:11 PM »
Although humor is not necessarily a bad thing, the idea of this thread is that predictions should be ones you sincerely believe have at least a chance of happening, and that have some rational basis.

Purely silly predictions, or counterfactual ones, or ones that only a diehard conspiracy theorist would find plausible, are not really welcome in this thread. A prediction that involved, among other things, space microbes that cause global warming, was removed.

If you have difficulty with that, use the Report to Mod and make the case that this action should be overturned.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online Johnnyhinbos

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #51 on: 01/02/2018 01:57 AM »
Although humor is not necessarily a bad thing, the idea of this thread is that predictions should be ones you sincerely believe have at least a chance of happening, and that have some rational basis.

Purely silly predictions, or counterfactual ones, or ones that only a diehard conspiracy theorist would find plausible, are not really welcome in this thread. A prediction that involved, among other things, space microbes that cause global warming, was removed.

If you have difficulty with that, use the Report to Mod and make the case that this action should be overturned.
(I hope you moved it to a party thread? Sometimes itís fun to read wild musings...)
John Hanzl. Author, action / adventure www.johnhanzl.com

Offline Patchouli

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #52 on: 01/02/2018 02:43 AM »
Falcon Heavy will reach orbit but they may not recover the center core and the performance may not be perfect think the Delta IV Heavy demo flight.

Electron's next test flight will be successful and they start commercial operations.

SS2 powered flights.

BO will make more flights with New Shepard and all landings will be successful.

It'll be a race as to which vehicle first carries someone into space.

Announcement of development of a lunar lander possible commercial competition.

Test of a full scale Raptor engine though at reduced chamber pressure

BFR will go through another revision though maybe not as major as the first one.

Full duration firing of BE-4.

Full scale test of AR-1 power head though BO will probably get the contract for Vulcan's first stage engines.

ARJ still gets the contract for Vulcan's upper stage.

ESA embraces RLVs there's no more denying they're the future.

Russia quickly follows with a similar announcement.
Fly back planned for Angara and a maybe quick and dirty parachute recovery of Soyuz 5 boosters.
Maybe even an announcement of a resurrection of some Soviet era projects such as MAKS.

Stratolaunch high speed taxi tests.

Bigelow announces a launch date of their first full scale station module.

Both Spacex and Boeing will have a crew vehicle visit ISS unmanned but I can't say which will be first but one will quickly follow the other.

Someone wins the Google lunar X prize but only after the deadline was extended a bit.

Spacex will beat their previous record with 22 to 24 launches for 2018.




« Last Edit: 01/02/2018 03:12 AM by Patchouli »

Offline jongoff

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #53 on: 01/02/2018 05:23 AM »
I only did so-so last year (about half of my predictions were mostly or all the way right, but a third were completely or mostly wrong), so let me take another shot at it this year:

1- SpaceX: I predict they'll have a successful Falcon Heavy first flight, and will have at least 20 flights, including at least an uncrewed Dragon 2 flight to ISS. I predict they won't have any outright flight failures again this year, showing that they've arrived when it comes to maintaining a high flight rate with good reliability. They'll continue to recover most first stages, and will continue to refly reused first stages. I'll even go so far as to say they'll succeed in recovering intact at least one PLF half. Their flight around the Moon will get delayed by at least a year. I'll predict that they won't have a crewed Dragon V2 flight before the end of the year but they'll be close.

2- Blue Origin: I predict they'll finally get BE-4 to a full-throttle test this year, though development will continue to take longer than expected. I expect them to also carry out at least a half dozen more New Shepard flights, but won't get to a crewed flight during 2018, but will be almost there.

3- ULA: I predict they'll have a successful year with no failures or major anomalies. They'll finally downselect to BE-4 for Vulcan propulsion, though potentially not till late in the year. Steady progress, but relative to SpaceX they'll be seen as falling further and further behind.

4- Boeing: Their XS-1 project will not go off the rails this year, though I'm skeptical it'll make it to flight. CST-100 will have an uncrewed flight before the end of the year, but will not have a crewed flight in 2018.
 
5- VG/VO: VG will finally get to powered flight testing of SS2, but once again won't get into commercial operations in 2018. They'll get to captive carry testing early in the year, with a first launch attempt late in the year. With the historical data on launcher first flights, I'll guess they don't make it all the way to orbit, but can gather enough data that their second flight will (but likely in 2019).

6- RocketLabs: RL will successfully get Electron into orbit by mid-year, on one of its next three launches. After that, they'll begin regular launches, though at a low rate--say 3 successful orbital launches this year.

7- Other Smallsat Launchers: Vector will not make an orbital launch attempt (with a vehicle with enough performance to actually have a shot of reaching orbit) this year. However either they or someone else will make at least one launch that crosses the Karman line this year (if I had to bet, I'd say Ventions beats them to this feat). At least one US venture will raise at least $10M to go after a partially reusable smallsat launch vehicle (with at least first-stage full-stage recovery).

8- Masten: Still ticking, but with no major new launch vehicle initiatives

9- Bridenstine will get re-nominated for NASA Admin, and will get confirmed in the Senate by a squeaker (with Mike Pence having to cast a tie-breaking vote). They may wait until a Dem or two is out sick to hold the vote.

10- Moon: In the NASA budget request, there will not be a dramatic (>$1B) increase to NASA's budget to pay for the new Moon focus. There'll be some reshifting of priorities, and slightly more emphasis on public-private partnerships, but nothing so drastic as the previous two direction changes (CxP and FY2011). Nobody will win the GLXP before it expires.

11- Mars: Mars Insight launch and landing will go off without a hitch.

10- Megaconstellations: At least two of the three of OneWeb, SpaceX, and Telesat will launch pathfinder satellites in 2018. OneWeb will finish closing the financing necessary to launch their first constellation. At least one other megaconstellation will get FCC approval before the end of the year.

11- Exoplanets: like last year I'll predict that at least one new earth-like exoplanet will be found within the habitable zone of a star within 25LY of earth. Also, the TESS spacecraft will successfully launch.

12- Mergers: At least one other major aerospace M&A event will occur this year. I wish it would be someone buying ULA off its parents, but I'm not holding my breath.

13- SLS/Orion: Neither will be canceled again, but there will be at least another 6 months of slippage.

I could try guessing on other things, but I'll stick with that for now.

~Jon

[Edit1: Added SLS/Orion prediction]
« Last Edit: 01/02/2018 05:34 AM by jongoff »

Offline woods170

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #54 on: 01/02/2018 12:34 PM »
I predict that, like all previous prediction threads, most predictions in this thread will be wrong.

Offline Nilof

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #55 on: 01/02/2018 03:15 PM »
- More than 95 total launches
- At least one failure

- Electron will launch successfully this year.
- Falcon Heavy will launch successfully this year.
- New Shepherd will make its first manned flight this year.
- Bezos will act cocky and say "welcome to the club" to Musk again when Dragon 2 makes its first manned flight.


- Musk will make another major update to the BFR architecture.
- At least one new big announcement from Jeff Bezos. Possibly more on Lunar plans?
For a variable Isp spacecraft running at constant power and constant acceleration, the mass ratio is linear in delta-v.   Δv = ve0(MR-1). Or equivalently: Δv = vef PMF. Also, this is energy-optimal for a fixed delta-v and mass ratio.

Offline Oumuamua

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #56 on: 01/02/2018 05:18 PM »
There may be better topics for a first forum post.. But nevertheless I will start by showing my ignorance by posting baseless predictions for the comming year.

-Over a 100 orbital launches this year (but less than a hundred successful flights.)
-6 or more failures, There are a lot of new launchers on the market, last year there were five failures; with more launches the number will be higher this year.
-No manned launches from the USA this year (not for spacex and  boeing, but also no suborbital ones  for Blue origin or virgin)
-Less than 20 launches for SpaceX
-Spacex will succesfuly recover a fairing, but will not refly any yet. details will emerge on falcon stage 2 recovery plans.
-China will start experimenting with grid fins, not (yet) for landing stages, but for having more control over where the first stages end up in their drop zones, to prevent damage to inhabited areas.
-None of the google lunar x prize competitors will be succesful this year, also not after the deadline has passed.
-Planet nine will not be found

Offline yg1968

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #57 on: 01/02/2018 07:51 PM »
Here are my predictions for 2018:

1- FH will fly at least twice successfully (the second one with the block 5 version).

2- The uncrewed demo flights for SpaceX and Boeing will fly towards the end of 2018 (but not the crewed flight).

3- Blue Origin will fly people towards the end of 2017 (but not paying passengers)

4- SpaceShip2 will make powered test flights but will not reach space.

5- Rocketlab will have a successful flight.

6- F9 will fly 20 times.

7- Bridenstine will eventually get confirmed.

 
« Last Edit: 01/05/2018 03:52 PM by yg1968 »

Offline NGC 4258

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #58 on: 01/02/2018 08:48 PM »
Hello, I'm new here. Probably not a good first post, but I'll do it anyway.

SpaceX: They will launch Falcon Heavy without a hitch, but the Roadster will have some sort of issue with its orbit. Dragon 2 will first launch uncrewed in June or July, and it will launch crewed late in the year. I think we will see a BFR prototype coming off the production line late Q4.

Blue Origin: Everything will continue along, but a manned mission will not happen.

Boeing: Starliner will launch uncrewed Q3/Q4 but won't go manned until 2019.

Rocketlab: Electron will launch February, marking their first success. One more launch will happen Q4.
"The wheel of Time is rolling for an end, and let's hope we're on Mars by then!"

Offline bad_astra

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #59 on: 01/03/2018 05:04 PM »
predictions: (ill try 3 categories)

the easy money:
VG will hit 328k at least once.   
Electron will fly successfully
Starliner and Dragon2 will both have minor schedule slips.


Half court shots:
New Shep (correction.. had Armstrong written) flies crewed
Falcon Heavy flies successfully twice
A crowd funding drive for a MEGAdrive or EMdrive cubesat achieves its goal

The Hail Mary:
New NASA administrator and White house set agenda for DSG and lunar missions.
Sandia Z-Machine hits breakeven.
Tabby's Star hypotheses veer away again from natural phenomenon and back to new ETI conjectures.
« Last Edit: 01/03/2018 05:07 PM by bad_astra »
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