Author Topic: Predictions for 2018  (Read 17973 times)

Offline vapour_nudge

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #20 on: 12/17/2017 07:36 AM »
More predictions please ;) I am reading the thread actively and I'm a little disappointed it's less active than previous years ;)

1) OK, me too. Exactly 100 successful orbital launches worldwide

2) No manned launches from US soil

3) Boeing beats SpaceX and launches Starliner first

4) Falcon Heavy fails and all other SpaceX launches and planned landings are successful

5) MLM is delayed further to 2020

6) No Russian launch failures

7) A surprise Israeli orbital launch

8 ) 3 moons found orbiting 2014 MU69

9) 1 Indian launch failure

10) 10 successful Atlas launches

11)  :) Blue Origin offer to launch Europa Clipper free albeit later

12)  :'( BepiColombo launch is delayed

13) SETI finds nothing (I needed to be certain I'd get at least one right)



« Last Edit: 12/20/2017 08:57 AM by vapour_nudge »

Offline DeanG1967

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #21 on: 12/17/2017 12:57 PM »
I predict that 2018 will end on December 31st

Online EgorBotts

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #22 on: 12/18/2017 02:26 PM »
Here we are, after a 2017 prediction list that was not all wrong but lacked foresight on SpaceX and GLXP
So, for 2018:

Russia
- 1 loss, as usual. Probably on a soyuz.
- Vostochny picks up with at least 4 launches
- No new contract for ILS, commercial Proton is a deadend.
- Glonass continues to grow old, may see multiple failures one after another.

Japan
- Will succeed to launch the smallest orbital rocket in the world
- Announces the H3 is late (officially)
- Hayabusa 2 is flawless and Ryugu is inspiringly weird.

China
- Record year without any problems on the launcher side (24+ launches)
- At least one mission to the moon, full success triggers an americain politician sitting at WH
- Officially one mission coop with ESA astronauts in space for 2022.

- No launches from North Korea but maybe one from Iran.
- GLXP fails without any teams ready in March. Maybe Moon Express launches at mid-year.

Europe
- Arianespace becames fully Arianegroup and finally beats achieves 12 rocket launches in 2018.
- No problems at all, but politicians wrestles with public opinion and industrials on the fate of Ariane 6. Calm comes back when the first tests are successful. July 2020 date is maintained.
- BepiColombo launches, ExoMars TGO releases first results above expectations.

US/Private
- No new launch provider reaches orbit (vector, etc), except RocketLab with 4 success, paving the way for an increase in production.
- Falcon 9 flies 28 times. Falcon Heavy 3 times (first launch is a failure at booster sep). Commercial crew kicks off nicely with Dragon 2 unmanned success, but manned version delayed (pad not ready, administrative failure) to early 2019.
- Elon details his plan to reach Mars, yet advertises its (delayed) moon tourist mission and a new BFRish adventure on the moon.
- Vulcan has big announcements, but stalls in production. Still no realistic launch date. BE-4 is certified after full length burn on Q1.
- InSight launches and lands successfully on Mars. Mission is amazing yet still lacks the hype of a 4K video rendition rover.
- Osiris-rex has some problems and won't be able to gather Bennu material. Still performs a nice mission around Bennu.
- Oppy sadly dies mid-year at the least expected moment.
- SLS get delayed to end of 2020. Close to be cancelled because the commander in chief thinks it could be done tremendously better.
- Blue Flies New Shepard 7 times and proves a quick 2 weeks turnaround with this version. Details are disclosed at seat prices under 200k/person. Preparations ongoing but no manned launch til 2019.
- Virgin achieves two 50 miles high flights but suffers motor problems and cannot start the tourism operations until at least a year.
- CST-100 doesn't see a launchpad.

- Near-miss on the 100 launch targets. Still an upgrade with 98 launches.

- I resubscribe in L2 in January and this year a reliable source will appear on the Blue Origin side, finally answearing our thousands of questions.


Offline Eric Hedman

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #23 on: 12/19/2017 05:58 AM »
Last year's predictions:

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41823.0;all

Mine from last year:

1 - Falcon Heavy first flight will successfully happen near the end of the year.  - Missed this by maybe a little

2 - SLS/Orion lumbers through the year with some additional delays announced. - Wasn't too difficult

3 - Manned Dragon has already been pushed to May of 2018 so easy prediction that it will not fly in 2017. - stated the obvious

4 - Some version of an Augustine commission convenes and recommends return to the Moon.  - National Space Council close enough

5 - Cis-Lunar habitat concept advances with multiple proposals but no final selection - Correct

6 - NASA proposes COTS type effort for a lunar lander - not approved yet in 2017 - maybe in 2018

7 - ARM redirected to Phobos sample return - wrong just canceled

8 - No realism appears in SpaceX ITS schedule - Correct

9 - Blue Origin flies with people and announces timeline for tourist flights - Wrong too optimistic
 
10 - Virgin Galactic reaches space again and firms up their timeline for tourist flights trying to beat Blue Origin (neither will have a customer on board in 2017) - Wrong too optimistic
 


New Predictions for 2018

1 - Falcon Heavy will fly successfully in Q1

2 - US, ESA, JAXA & RUSSIA try to negotiate deal to work together to return to Moon.  No deal finalized in 2018 as concepts not worked out.
     2a - Trump tries to include China with Congress balking.
     2b - Trump tries to include India, Israel and UAE as possible partners (not settled in 2018)

3 - New Shepard and Spaceship 2 both reach space with test pilots on board.  Blue Origin does it first.  No tourists on either

4 - NASA puts out requests for proposals on how aerospace companies could support lunar effort with COTS approach

5 - SLS/Orion lumbers through the year with some more delays announced.

6 - Proposal for putting Orion on Vulcan or New Glenn is considered - Senator from Alabama throws fit

7 - Dragon & CST-100 fly to ISS

8 - Elon surprises people again with announcement at IAC

9 - Tesla Roadster on Falcon Heavy has HD dash-cam that broadcasts for a month

10 - Congress tries to block ideas that could show SLS is a waste of money and obsolete in comparison.

11- BE-4 engine is officially picked for Vulcan

12- Blue Origin advances Lunar lander concept revealing much more to public hoping for COTS shared cost development with NASA   

13-BE-4 fired at full thrust for projected mission duration.  Deep throttling for landing not fully tested until 2019

14-ESA determines Ariane 6 cannot compete on price or performance with SpaceX or Blue Origin, but continues with program anyways.

Offline the_other_Doug

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #24 on: 12/19/2017 03:43 PM »
US, ESA, JAXA & RUSSIA try to negotiate deal to work together to return to Moon.  No deal finalized in 2018 as concepts not worked out.
     2a - Trump tries to include China with Congress balking.
     2b - Trump tries to include India, Israel and UAE as possible partners (not settled in 2018)

I don't have any great psychic impressions of the year ahead, but I am seriously under the impression that, at least per some of the recent statements that have come out relative to this new space directive, the current management of the country has no interest whatsoever in working with any other nations in space.  I get the feeling they would back out of the ISS agreements, if they could.

I base this on the recent statements that the US "now feels" that space is not a common inheritance of mankind, and is fair game to be grabbed, used and (likely) militarized at America's whim.  All in service of making America the permanent pre-eminent space power on the planet.  The theme seems to be that partnerships are seen by America's current management as weakening America's leadership position in space, rather than strengthening mankind's toehold in the solar system, and that the former is all the matters.

With public statements along those lines, I would think it would be highly, highly unlikely that, at least under its current management, America would seek -- or even allow -- any new international partnerships on space exploration.  So, my only real prediction is that, instead of seeing the US seeking new partnerships, as Eric suggests, we will see a lot of rhetoric about America needing to go it alone -- especially in a return to the Moon -- to ensure no one takes our "lead" away from us.

The associated prediction, of course, is that Congress will approve no new funding to achieve an "America-forever-first-in-space" goal -- whether they think that's the goal we should be pursuing, or not...
-Doug  (With my shield, not yet upon it)

Offline envy887

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #25 on: 12/21/2017 01:07 AM »
US, ESA, JAXA & RUSSIA try to negotiate deal to work together to return to Moon.  No deal finalized in 2018 as concepts not worked out.
     2a - Trump tries to include China with Congress balking.
     2b - Trump tries to include India, Israel and UAE as possible partners (not settled in 2018)

I don't have any great psychic impressions of the year ahead, but I am seriously under the impression that, at least per some of the recent statements that have come out relative to this new space directive, the current management of the country has no interest whatsoever in working with any other nations in space.  I get the feeling they would back out of the ISS agreements, if they could.

I base this on the recent statements that the US "now feels" that space is not a common inheritance of mankind, and is fair game to be grabbed, used and (likely) militarized at America's whim.  All in service of making America the permanent pre-eminent space power on the planet.  The theme seems to be that partnerships are seen by America's current management as weakening America's leadership position in space, rather than strengthening mankind's toehold in the solar system, and that the former is all the matters.

With public statements along those lines, I would think it would be highly, highly unlikely that, at least under its current management, America would seek -- or even allow -- any new international partnerships on space exploration.  So, my only real prediction is that, instead of seeing the US seeking new partnerships, as Eric suggests, we will see a lot of rhetoric about America needing to go it alone -- especially in a return to the Moon -- to ensure no one takes our "lead" away from us.

The associated prediction, of course, is that Congress will approve no new funding to achieve an "America-forever-first-in-space" goal -- whether they think that's the goal we should be pursuing, or not...

That's an interesting opinion, since the recent directive specifically instructs the NASA Administrator to seek international partnerships as part of a return to the Moon.

Offline envy887

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #26 on: 12/21/2017 05:58 PM »
I'll try my hand at this:

ULA:
Vulcan CDR complete, BE-4 chosen officially
More details on upper stage(s) emerge
Structural qual articles for Vulcan booster are built
15 Delta and Atlas flights, all succeed
Uncrewed test launch of Starliner succeeds

SpaceX:
Launches 28 or more times successfully, with no failures
Falcon Heavy launches 2 or more times, all are successful
16 or more launches include at least one used booster
More than 30 individual booster landings are attempted, only 2 or fewer fail
Dragon 2 abort and uncrewed tests fly successfully, crew slips to 2019
BFR updated at IAC with details converging on an initial build

Other commercial:
Blue launches NS 5+ times, crewed flights slip to 2019
BE-4 completes full power/duration testing
Many more details on New Glenn/manufacturing/LC-36 are released, but no sign of stage hardware
Virgin flies under power at least once, no crewed flights to space
RL launches 3+ times, at least 2 successful

NASA:
SLS Block 1 hardware progresses but the launch officially slips to 2020
JWST slips to 2019
No major issues on or near ISS

Europe:
Ariane 5 flies 7 or more times with no failures
Progress on Ariane 6 continues unabated
No failures on flights out of Kourou

Russia:
21 or more total launches, including at least 1 failure.

China:
24 or more launches with at least 1 failure

India:
8 or more launches, no failures.
« Last Edit: 12/21/2017 07:45 PM by envy887 »

Offline Johnnyhinbos

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #27 on: 12/21/2017 06:30 PM »
General question regarding prediction threads. I see a lot of posts where people make statements along the lines of "X number of flights or more". Is that an acceptable prediction? If so, what's the limit? Is "SpaceX will fly 1 or more times" acceptable?

My take is you need to predict a specific outcome with little to no plus or minus. But that's my take and how I try to approach it - just didn't know if there was a forum consensus. I believe I even saw Lar make predictions with that sort of nomenclature.

I predict there will be zero or more responses to this post...
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Offline envy887

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #28 on: 12/21/2017 07:43 PM »
General question regarding prediction threads. I see a lot of posts where people make statements along the lines of "X number of flights or more". Is that an acceptable prediction? If so, what's the limit? Is "SpaceX will fly 1 or more times" acceptable?

My take is you need to predict a specific outcome with little to no plus or minus. But that's my take and how I try to approach it - just didn't know if there was a forum consensus. I believe I even saw Lar make predictions with that sort of nomenclature.

I predict there will be zero or more responses to this post...

You can predict whatever you want. The only reward for getting anything correct is bragging rights, and if you can nail the exact number of launches, kudos to you. But if you want to predict "SpaceX launches once or more", you get no more kudos than if you predict the sun will rise in the east tomorrow.

Personally, I like seeing predictions that are both easy to grade and entail some risk of being wrong.

Online saliva_sweet

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #29 on: 12/21/2017 09:40 PM »
Is "SpaceX will fly 1 or more times" acceptable?

Totally. There will be no formal winner and you yourself will be the judge of how you did. My favorite was Lar's prediction that Blue Origin would do at least four New Shepard flights this year. They only did one so he considered the prediction 25% right  ;D

Online deruch

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #30 on: 12/22/2017 09:09 AM »
I predict that 2018 will end on December 31st

Some predictions are more of a stretch than others.  Nothing tangible is riding on them, so, IHMO, do as you will.  If nothing else, we'll have a chance to laugh.
Shouldn't reality posts be in "Advanced concepts"?  --Nomadd

Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #31 on: 12/22/2017 02:54 PM »
2018 is the year NASA returns.

To the public NASA went away with the crash of Columbia in 2003. A few more missions occurred and then the Space Shuttles stopped. As the readers of this website know since then NASA has been returning to manned flight by getting companies to develop new space vehicles.

The business press has discovered that California is going into recession. When companies fire people and close down the ordinary press will report it. Bad news in an election year is disliked by politicians, so they will look for good news. In 2018 NASA may have lots of good news.

In previous years COTS and Commercial Resupply Services have transported cargo to the International Space Station (ISS).

In January/February the Falcon Heavy is due to have a test flight. This will be the biggest American rocket currently flying. (Saturn V has retired and SLS is still in development.)

In the spring/summer Lunar CATALYST partner Moon Express hopes to land 30kg of payload on the Moon.

Commercial Crew Program company SpaceX plans to send a Dragon 2.0 to the ISS in spring 2018. A Boeing CST-100 is due at the ISS in summer 2018. Later flights will carry people.

In 2018 NASA's back. It will return to the International Space Station and is preparing to return to the Moon.

Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #32 on: 12/22/2017 05:02 PM »
2018 is the year NASA returns.

To the public NASA went away with the crash of Columbia in 2003. A few more missions occurred and then the Space Shuttles stopped. As the readers of this website know since then NASA has been returning to manned flight by getting companies to develop new space vehicles.

The business press has discovered that California is going into recession. When companies fire people and close down the ordinary press will report it. Bad news in an election year is disliked by politicians, so they will look for good news. In 2018 NASA may have lots of good news.

In previous years COTS and Commercial Resupply Services have transported cargo to the International Space Station (ISS).

In January/February the Falcon Heavy is due to have a test flight. This will be the biggest American rocket currently flying. (Saturn V has retired and SLS is still in development.)

In the spring/summer Lunar CATALYST partner Moon Express hopes to land 30kg of payload on the Moon.

Commercial Crew Program company SpaceX plans to send a Dragon 2.0 to the ISS in spring 2018. A Boeing CST-100 is due at the ISS in summer 2018. Later flights will carry people.

In 2018 NASA's back. It will return to the International Space Station and is preparing to return to the Moon.

Oh the good ol' days, seriously people they're not gonna come back, not how you want them to
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=moSFlvxnbgk&feature=youtu.be&t=59s
« Last Edit: 12/22/2017 05:06 PM by AbuSimbel »
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Online William Graham

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #33 on: 12/22/2017 06:49 PM »
Haven't done one of these for a few years, so why not...

1.  There will be more than 100 orbital launches worldwide
3.  The United States will make at least one third of the world's launches in 2018
2.  China will make the second-most launches, Russia third
4.  SpaceX will fail to recover a core on an otherwise successful mission - the mass media will jump on it and claim it as major setback
5.  Electron will reach orbit on its second or third flight
6.  Falcon Heavy will fail on its maiden flight (sorry Elon) but SpaceX will bounce back quickly and be at least preparing for another launch by the end of the year
7.  Delta II will successfully launch ICESat II, bringing the curtain down on sixty years of Thor launches
8.  Dragon v2 and Starliner will make unmanned test flights, but will not carry crew into space
9.  At least two Russian launches and one Chinese launch will fail
10. Iran will place at least one satellite into orbit
11. Nauka will be no closer to launch than it is now (i.e. it will not launch, and launch will be NET December 2019)
12. SLS will slip into late 2020. At least one private company will stake its reputation on flying a lunar orbit/landing mission before EM-2
13. SpaceX will launch between 24 and 28 Falcon 9 rockets
14. Vector-R and LauncherOne will not reach orbit in 2018
15. Nobody will win the Google Lunar X-Prize by the March deadline - although if the deadline is extended again the prize may still be won

For the purpose the above predictions, Electron counts towards the US launch total, Zenit and all Soyuz - including Arianespace launches from Kourou - count towards the Russian total
« Last Edit: 12/22/2017 06:51 PM by William Graham »

Offline Lar

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #34 on: 12/23/2017 01:23 AM »
Is "SpaceX will fly 1 or more times" acceptable?

Totally. There will be no formal winner and you yourself will be the judge of how you did. My favorite was Lar's prediction that Blue Origin would do at least four New Shepard flights this year. They only did one so he considered the prediction 25% right  ;D

Told ya I grade on a curve. I gave myself a participation medal too.  But I'm not planning on ever bragging about my crappy predictions.

If you want high grade bragging rights level predictions, you need to link to your comments on the various poll threads explaining your vote  there (which is a specific number) and have lots of predictions that are easily graded zero.

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Offline koshvv

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #35 on: 12/23/2017 01:40 AM »
* YARF (Yet Another Russian Failure)
* MLM Nauka will continue to rust on ground
* SLS will continue to snail at glacial speed

* There will be no crewed Boeing Starliner mission
* SpaceX will launch uncrewed Dragon-2 mission to ISS

* SpaceX will miss its manifest of 30 launches (There will be at least 20 launches, or at least 10 in case of failure)
* SpaceX will develop fairing recovery
* There will be no tourist flight around the Moon
* Finally, Falcon Heavy flies

* Blue Origin will launch a man into space
* Rocketlab will begin commercial launches

Offline cd-slam

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #36 on: 12/25/2017 04:04 AM »
Haven't posted for a while, but now's as good a time as any.

I will buck the trend and predict that SpaceX will squeeze in a manned Dragon before the end of the year, maybe as a Christmas present? Falcon Heavy fails to deliver the Tesla to Mars but flies successfully later in the year. 24 Falcon missions in 2018 with no failures.

No flights for Starliner next year; NASA is forced to eat humble pie and buy more seats on Soyuz in 2019.

Planet Nine is not found next year, but 2007OR10 gets a name (pet peeve of mine).

Team India win the Google Lunar X prize, but not until after March, with some creative rewriting of the T&C.

Successful flight for RocketLab, but no-one cares.

The Russians continue making big promises about Nauka, Federatsiya and Angara, but nothing happens.

Both China and India make successful flights to the Moon, following which the Japanese announce a new mission.

Lastly, I predict a very Merry Christmas and a great year ahead for NASASpaceflight and all contributors! 😁

Offline Rebel44

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #37 on: 12/25/2017 05:44 AM »
* 1 failure of Russian LV
* 1 failure of Chinese LV
* 1 failure of US LV
* SLS hit by further delays - 1st launch pushed to NET 2021

* There will be no crewed Boeing Starliner mission

* SpaceX will launch uncrewed and crewed Dragon-2 demo mission to ISS
* SpaceX will launch 28 orbital missions - 26x Falcon 9, 2x Falcon Heavy
* SpaceX will recover both fairing halves on 7 mission
* SpaceX will reuse both fairing halves on 3 mission
* There will be no tourist flight around the Moon

* Blue Origin will launch a man into space

* OATK NGLV will be canceled

Offline philw1776

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #38 on: 12/30/2017 08:56 PM »
1. FH finally flies with 2 or more successful flights in 2018
2. No crewed Dragon 2 flight to ISS in 2018
3. No crewed flight around the moon in 2018
4. 2 or more Falcon class recovered cores re-used at least 2 times
5. Raptor @ full BFR design level thrust fired successfully, shown at IAC
6. No actual launch pad construction at Boca Chica
7. SpaceX begins launching their satellite constellation
8. No Raptor upper stage being developed for F9 or FH
9. SpaceX recovers fairings successfully, but no 2018 re-flight.
10. SLS slips into 2020
11. BO makes additional flights, but no commercial customer flights in 2018
12. No Google Lunar prize winner
13. No SETI signal received
14. No Planet 9 discovery
15. Virgin Galactic finally makes powered test flights
16. Congress finally confirms NASA Administrator
17. ITER continues to suck up money employing physicists in a jobs program


« Last Edit: 01/01/2018 04:22 PM by philw1776 »
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Offline tonyq

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #39 on: 12/31/2017 07:26 AM »
I’ll keep my contribution short, and specific. I hope to be able to publish a little more detail, in early 2018, but I wanted to initiate it, prior to the end of 2017, in the spirit of the ‘predictions’ threads!

I anticipate, that during 2018, this woman will be revealed as the next ‘Space Tourist’ or perhaps more correctly, as a Commercial Astronaut.

Her name is Johanna Maislinger.  She is 32, and lives in Munich, but she is actually Austrian. She is an airline pilot (Boeing 777-200 Aerologic), a mechanical engineer, and is almost qualified, as a  medical doctor. For hobbies, she is an aerobatic pilot, sky-diver, mountaineer, cross-country, and downhill skier. A generally very smart and adventurous lady!

After being eliminated from the German ‘Die Astronautin’ project, she has spent much of 2017 involved with a major German conglomerate, as a possible ‘sponsor’ for her to make a commercial spaceflight to the ISS, in 2019 or 2020.

At present, the availability of ‘commercial’ Soyuz seats to the ISS, hinges upon SpaceX and Boeing reducing NASA’s reliance on Soyuz. Let’s see what happens with this one! 😉


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