The math related to number of stages recovered

[cferreir]

I am curious about what the more informed members of the forum think about the fact that if SpaceX keeps recovering stages they will soon have enough 1st stages to get them through most of next year. What do people think? Are they going to just keep buying warehouses? Museums? Seriously its a LOT of boosters sitting around.

[laszlo]

Depends on the mix of dinged-up parts vs. functional boosters. I haven't heard SpaceX saying anything specific about the condition and refurbishment costs, so no way to tell how many are actually economically reusable and how many are just interesting paperweights.

[aero]

I am curious about what the more informed members of the forum think about the fact that if SpaceX keeps recovering stages they will soon have enough 1st stages to get them through most of next year. What do people think? Are they going to just keep buying warehouses? Museums? Seriously its a LOT of boosters sitting around.

I don't know how they are storing the F9 first stages, but today I was struck by how big these rockets really are. I was looking at/working on my fence today, it's about 55 feet across the back of my lot. That is less than the diameter of two BFR's.

(I'm rebuilding the fence, a lot of work, but comparing the length of the fence to a BFR it just dawned on me how big these rockets really are. And two of them would not fit inside the lot lines.)

Anyway, saying that the BFR is as big as a house really fails to appreciate the sheer size. Rather it is the size of a whole block of row houses.

[Hobbes-22]

At least one recovered stage has been scrapped, so SpaceX seems to be at the 'more than we know what to do with' stage already.

[Bananas_on_Mars]

At least one recovered stage has been scrapped, so SpaceX seems to be at the 'more than we know what to do with' stage already.

You mean scrapped as in "engines taken out and parked outside in shrick wrap", or scrapped as in "back to the furnace"?

[AncientU]

the latter

[Jcc]

The first thing they did with all those returned stages is look at them and see what parts are subject to wear or damage, and figure out how to improve the block 5 design. Some of the improvements might have been incorporated into block 4, and evaluated after those stages return. Three stages have been reflown so far, which more than anything is to demonstrate the viability of relight and then look at the stages after 2 flights. With the recently announced use of flown stages for iridium, and NASA, using reflown stages will start to have an appreciable impact on increasing flight rate beyond the ability to build first stages.

I don't recall hearing anything about taking engines or other parts from recovered stages to use in "new" stages, but that might have happened, particularly the avionics. We did hear that they have reused some parts from recovered Dragons even before the first reuse of a Dragon.

My point here is that it is not necessarily a waste to return stages and not reuse them initially, it's a learning process for SpaceX and for their customers.

[Ludus]

The Block 5 Version that’s just being built now is the stable rapidly reusable version that incorporates the lessons learned from the earlier recoveries. Block 5 is what they will accumulate a fleet of so they can operate Falcon while shifting production to BFR/BFS. All the older Falcon 9 cores they’ve accumulated will perhaps refly once or twice, be scrapped or used as displays.

[Elmar Moelzer]

At least one recovered stage has been scrapped, so SpaceX seems to be at the 'more than we know what to do with' stage already.

Got a reference for that?

[Lar]

Elmar, are you suggesting that they didn't scrap one? Mentioned in multiple threads here.

[Elmar Moelzer]

Elmar, are you suggesting that they didn't scrap one? Mentioned in multiple threads here.

No, I was hoping for a reference with info to look up which one and why and all that. Been really busy lately and have not been able to follow all the threads here as closely as I would like.

[meekGee]

At least one recovered stage has been scrapped, so SpaceX seems to be at the 'more than we know what to do with' stage already.

I'm not sure you have enough evidence to make that leap.  Do you know why it was scrapped?

Leap or not though, I'm as curious as anyone as to how this will play out...

[Tass]

Elmar, are you suggesting that they didn't scrap one? Mentioned in multiple threads here.

No, I was hoping for a reference with info to look up which one and why and all that. Been really busy lately and have not been able to follow all the threads here as closely as I would like.

I know we are living in a postfactual world, but really I would wish peoples reactions to a request for sources or references were more "Sure, you can read more about it here and here" and less "Are you calling me a liar?"

[Lar]

Elmar, are you suggesting that they didn't scrap one? Mentioned in multiple threads here.

No, I was hoping for a reference with info to look up which one and why and all that. Been really busy lately and have not been able to follow all the threads here as closely as I would like.

NO ONE is able to follow all the threads here as closely as we would like, I suspect.

I'll confess I remember reading about it but can't remember which stage it was, so don't quite remember which threads to search in and I was being lazy and hoping someone else would remember and give the ref. I vaguely recall it being done somewhere at the Cape (I can't remember all the buildings and facilities that SpaceX has at the cape, there are a lot) but that's all I have, sorry. I think Jim mentioned it too.

I know we are living in a postfactual world, but really I would wish peoples reactions to a request for sources or references were more "Sure, you can read more about it here and here" and less "Are you calling me a liar?"

I don't think that is what happened here, although I can see how it looks like it.

I found the reference I remember reading. It's in L2
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42452.msg1650077#msg1650077 (L2 SpaceX stage watch thread)
that post has a summary of all stages to the best known knowledge. Other posts in the thread are developing supporting detail, changes, inferences, etc.  If you have L2, you can read it and find the supporting details of which stage it was, and how it was known to be scrapped..., if not, you can take my word for it I guess?

[macpacheco]

At least one recovered stage has been scrapped, so SpaceX seems to be at the 'more than we know what to do with' stage already.

I'm not sure you have enough evidence to make that leap.  Do you know why it was scrapped?

Leap or not though, I'm as curious as anyone as to how this will play out...

If we just keep in mind the fact that SpaceX wants to land those boosters, even if its just for inspection.
Many of those landings were outright hail marry or nearly so, SpaceX might even though they wouldn't get those.
Some of those boosters are not refurbishable, they would at the very least need to be extensively remanufactured, and in some cases perhaps only the engines and some internal things can be reused, everything else is tossed away.
Perhaps the later is what scrapped actually meant, the skin/tanks were not good even to send back to the factory, so they sold the alloys for scrap. But its possible engines were taken from all of those boosters.
It doesn't make sense to store over a dozen boosters if they know some are mostly junk.
Its very interesting to know precisely the condition of the landed boosters that were built into FH side boosters for the first launch.

[ClayJar]

Elmar, are you suggesting that they didn't scrap one? Mentioned in multiple threads here.

No, I was hoping for a reference with info to look up which one and why and all that. Been really busy lately and have not been able to follow all the threads here as closely as I would like.

If you're L2, go to the list in the second post of the L2 Level SpaceX Falcon 9 Stage Watch thread, as it is the best reference for stages.  If you're not L2, this quote from Jim is the closest to a reference as I can find on the public forums, although it doesn't specify a particular core.

Spacex has more flown boosters than it knows what to do with them and has been breaking them apart and scrapping them.

I do not recall having had official SpaceX confirmation as to the final disposition of any landed  stage that may have been scrapped, so L2 reports, Jim posts, and things like comments on facebook posts saying on good authority a particular stage won't fly again (but not actually mentioning scrapping) are really all there is to go on.  Even with L2, et al, we don't have anything on the why except more or less informed speculation.

(There was also an Ed Kyle post about the NROL-76 stage being behind Hangar AM and presumably heading for scrapping, but I believe that has remained a presumption to this point, as I don't have any further references on it.  You'll have to decide whether the meager data we know supports the presumption.)

[Space Ghost 1962]

Keep telling them to populate the "rocket gardens" with them ... great PR!

[AncientU]

Keep telling them to populate the "rocket gardens" with them ... great PR!

Will be out of place in rocket gardens... none of their neighbors have even flown once.

[Elmar Moelzer]

Thanks for the info! Unfortunately not on L2 ( I know, I should, I will eventually).

[Space Ghost 1962]

Keep telling them to populate the "rocket gardens" with them ... great PR!

Will be out of place in rocket gardens... none of their neighbors have even flown once.

"The neighborhood has gone to crud since that F9 moved in".