Indeed. People seem to forget that Ariane 5 suffered two (2) complete failures (Ariane 501 and 517) as well as two (2) partial failures (Ariane 502 and 510). The two partial failures left several payloads in unusable orbits and resulted in insurance companies paying for the "lost" payloads (A payload does not have to be destroyed in a catastrophic launch mishap to be a total loss. Ending up in a useless orbit is every bit as much a total loss).Additionally, for Proton:Past 20 years of service: 13/162 = 8,0%Past 10 years of service: 10/85 = 11,8%So, the failure rate of Proton shot up in the last 10 years. A failure rate of nearly 12% in the last decade fits nicely with current insurance rate (12%) for Proton.
Unsure how the program is managed, but if I were in charge, a 2nd complete telescope would be ordered as spare. Or at least the critical parts, one-offs, that are hard to remake, like custom sensors, optics, electronics, etc.
Quote from: woods170 on 10/19/2017 07:20 amIndeed. People seem to forget that Ariane 5 suffered two (2) complete failures (Ariane 501 and 517) as well as two (2) partial failures (Ariane 502 and 510). The two partial failures left several payloads in unusable orbits and resulted in insurance companies paying for the "lost" payloads (A payload does not have to be destroyed in a catastrophic launch mishap to be a total loss. Ending up in a useless orbit is every bit as much a total loss).Additionally, for Proton:Past 20 years of service: 13/162 = 8,0%Past 10 years of service: 10/85 = 11,8%So, the failure rate of Proton shot up in the last 10 years. A failure rate of nearly 12% in the last decade fits nicely with current insurance rate (12%) for Proton.Some interesting numbers, but there are also some unmentioned assumptions in them.I think the key one is the extent to which Ariane 5 and F9 change over time. AIUI Arianespace is basically a sales and services operation. It does no development work. So the A5 design will have been changed on the results of the MIB investigations for those 4 events but is otherwise pretty stable. OTOH F9 has been continually changed since first launch. Merlin thrust levels have gone through what 4 levels? Engine mounts shifted to Octaweb and IIRC at least one tank stretch. These are only the visible changes. I can't imagine how many versions the flight control software has gone through. The point is every change is a possibility for failure and every so often SX has gotten it wrong as AMOS 6 demonstrated. On that basis Ariane 5 has clocked up 78 successful flights with (AFAIK) the same configuration, for a failure rate < 1 in 78 IE < 1.28%F9 has clocked up 23 launches of F9/FT or 2 of the F9/FT/Blk4 version (according to Wiki).Or 15 since AMOS 6 (whatever version). So is that a failure rate <4.34%, <6.66% or 50% all flown ?And this disregards which of those boosters has already been flight proven. I'm not saying either approach is good or bad. I'm saying the insurance rates don't seem to match the actual risk profiles of the companies involved. IOW are insurers discounting the effect of reusability? Are they under weighting the frequent changes? Or are Arianespace being over charged (until they have another flight failure)?
Ariane 5 has changed more over the years than you indicate:- Two different versions of the core stage main engine (Vulcain 1 and Vulcain 2)- Continuous improvements made to the core stage main engines. - Two different versions of the core stage (EPC H158 and EPC H173)- Two different versions of the solid rocket boosters (EAP 238 and EAP 241).- Two completely different upper stages. (EPS and ESC-A)- Two different versions of one of the upper stage types. (EPS L9.7 and EPS L10)- Multiple changes in core stage tank insulation- Multiple changes to avionics hardware (replacement of obsolete and out-of-production with newly developed)- Switch from fairing with acoustics dampening to one without- Multiple improvements and changes in production of tankage and other structures.- Smaller changes to hundreds of other details over the Ariane 5 life-span.Don't assume a current Ariane 5 ECA to be identical to one from 10 years ago. There are lots of (albeit small) changes.
In my opinion the difference in insurance rate between Ariane 5 and Falcon 9 is very small.
With SpaceX it is not known what they have changed to the launcher or launch procedure.
Using Super Cryo with composite wrapped GHe tanks is looking for trouble. Let's try filling the He later and faster => Kaboom. A failure mode that was totally to be expected. I hope this has changed at SpaceX.
Quote from: woods170 on 10/20/2017 09:38 amAriane 5 has changed more over the years than you indicate:- Two different versions of the core stage main engine (Vulcain 1 and Vulcain 2)- Continuous improvements made to the core stage main engines. - Two different versions of the core stage (EPC H158 and EPC H173)- Two different versions of the solid rocket boosters (EAP 238 and EAP 241).- Two completely different upper stages. (EPS and ESC-A)- Two different versions of one of the upper stage types. (EPS L9.7 and EPS L10)- Multiple changes in core stage tank insulation- Multiple changes to avionics hardware (replacement of obsolete and out-of-production with newly developed)- Switch from fairing with acoustics dampening to one without- Multiple improvements and changes in production of tankage and other structures.- Smaller changes to hundreds of other details over the Ariane 5 life-span.Don't assume a current Ariane 5 ECA to be identical to one from 10 years ago. There are lots of (albeit small) changes.TBH I was aware of the Vulcain upgrade but had forgotten it. I was unaware of most of the rest of those changes. So the other question would seem to be have these changes been an ongoing thing (with nearly every launch being just a little bit different from every other) or were most of them done following a failure, or partial failure?I guess what I'm saying is that the scale of changes still seems smaller than that of F9 and their success record is still definitely better, so (in the context of this thread) is SX getting a very good deal on its insurance, or is Arianespace getting rather a bad deal on its launches?Somehow the facts don't quite add up.
I'm not saying either approach is good or bad. I'm saying the insurance rates don't seem to match the actual risk profiles of the companies involved.
I was unaware of most of the rest of those changes. So the other question would seem to be have these changes been an ongoing thing (with nearly every launch being just a little bit different from every other) or were most of them done following a failure, or partial failure?
It's easy to forget, but SES has a team embedded with SpaceX sitting right there. NASA and the USAF have very deep insight as well. They all know way more than we do, to base their assessments on.
JS19, All rockets go through a lot of changes. ULA does the same thing with the Atlas V. I doubt there has been many Atlas V cores that have been identical in every aspect - if any.
SpaceX is more open about its changes, and they are sometimes more visible. And there is also certain group of actors that do their best to highlight SpaceX changes and downplay changes to their own vehicles.
I would imagine that the insurance premiums at some point asymptotically reach some number, and I would also assume that this number is not zero. As you get more and more flights, I would not expect that the rates will continue to go down to zero. Therefore, as both launchers continue to fly, both of their rates should become pretty much the same. When does this happen? Have Ariane rates pretty much bottomed out, and F9 are just about there?I'm also not sure what the real question is. Are we looking for evidence that insurance companies have made some backroom decision to cut SX a deal and potentially lose money on future launch failures? I don't think I can see the motivation for insurance companies to keep the rates for any particular launcher artificially low.
Quote from: LouScheffer on 10/18/2017 03:57 pmBut why should premiums for a year cover a launch failure? Ariane 5 has not failed for about 15 years. Therefore a break-even premiums for year would only cover 1/15 of a launch failure. As of now, the insurance companies have collected 80 straight premiums for Ariane, without a single payout. At 4%, that's about 3.2 payloads worth in the bank, not including what they've earned by investing the money over that time. They could afford to lose one or two payloads and still be solidly in the black. If anything, insurance for Ariane seems way more expensive than the statistics dictate.I believe the insurance talked about here is for launch and first year on-orbit.No idea if that changes the numbers.
But why should premiums for a year cover a launch failure? Ariane 5 has not failed for about 15 years. Therefore a break-even premiums for year would only cover 1/15 of a launch failure. As of now, the insurance companies have collected 80 straight premiums for Ariane, without a single payout. At 4%, that's about 3.2 payloads worth in the bank, not including what they've earned by investing the money over that time. They could afford to lose one or two payloads and still be solidly in the black. If anything, insurance for Ariane seems way more expensive than the statistics dictate.
Ariane 5 has changed more over the years than you indicate:- Two different versions of the core stage main engine (Vulcain 1 and Vulcain 2)- Two different versions of the core stage (EPC H158 and EPC H173)- Two different versions of the solid rocket boosters (EAP 238 and EAP 241).
- Continuous improvements made to the core stage main engines. - Multiple changes in core stage tank insulation- Multiple changes to avionics hardware (replacement of obsolete and out-of-production with newly developed)- Switch from fairing with acoustics dampening to one without- Multiple improvements and changes in production of tankage and other structures.- Smaller changes to hundreds of other details over the Ariane 5 life-span.
Quote from: Rik ISS-fanUsing Super Cryo with composite wrapped GHe tanks is looking for trouble. Let's try filling the He later and faster => Kaboom. A failure mode that was totally to be expected. I hope this has changed at SpaceX.That's a bit harsh. If it really was that predictable they'd have know it was not worth doing in the first place. OTOH doing with the payload on the top was an unnecessary risk. I doubt SX will be doing that again when they have any ConOps tweaks planned.
Quote from: woods170 on 10/20/2017 09:38 amAriane 5 has changed more over the years than you indicate:- Two different versions of the core stage main engine (Vulcain 1 and Vulcain 2)- Two different versions of the core stage (EPC H158 and EPC H173)- Two different versions of the solid rocket boosters (EAP 238 and EAP 241).These were changes applied at P2- Two different versions of one of the upper stage types. (EPS L9.7 and EPS L10) Difference G and GS/ESQuote- Continuous improvements made to the core stage main engines. - Multiple changes in core stage tank insulation- Multiple changes to avionics hardware (replacement of obsolete and out-of-production with newly developed)- Switch from fairing with acoustics dampening to one without- Multiple improvements and changes in production of tankage and other structures.- Smaller changes to hundreds of other details over the Ariane 5 life-span.These are implemented at block upgrades. And as I write in my reply this is tested before implementation in scope of LEAP. Most are applied because the materials are no longer allowed or are no longer available.
Quote from: john smith 19 on 10/20/2017 08:09 pmQuote from: Rik ISS-fanUsing Super Cryo with composite wrapped GHe tanks is looking for trouble. Let's try filling the He later and faster => Kaboom. A failure mode that was totally to be expected. I hope this has changed at SpaceX.That's a bit harsh. If it really was that predictable they'd have know it was not worth doing in the first place. OTOH doing with the payload on the top was an unnecessary risk. I doubt SX will be doing that again when they have any ConOps tweaks planned. The first thing teachers told me about epoxy / polymers is that they are permeable, so LOx gets into it.So my oppinion is that this was totally to be expected. Very bad risk judgment from SpaceX, or ...
Quote from: abaddon on 10/18/2017 05:53 pmQuote from: LouScheffer on 10/18/2017 03:57 pmBut why should premiums for a year cover a launch failure? Ariane 5 has not failed for about 15 years. Therefore a break-even premiums for year would only cover 1/15 of a launch failure. As of now, the insurance companies have collected 80 straight premiums for Ariane, without a single payout. At 4%, that's about 3.2 payloads worth in the bank, not including what they've earned by investing the money over that time. They could afford to lose one or two payloads and still be solidly in the black. If anything, insurance for Ariane seems way more expensive than the statistics dictate.I believe the insurance talked about here is for launch and first year on-orbit.No idea if that changes the numbers.This appears to be the case, and changes the numbers by a lot, and then they make much more sense. From Falling Satellite Insurance Premiums Put Market at Risk of Major Upheaval, at least in 2012, the payouts from satellites failing in the first year were more than the risk of launch failure.So if the insurer needs 2% to cover satellite failures, then the total for Ariane might be something like 3.5%, so 1.5% for launch, representing a 1/66 odds of failure. For SpaceX, perhaps 5%, so 3% for launch, for a perceived failure rate of 1 in 33. For Proton, perhaps 2% satellite + 8% launch (1 in 12 fails) for 10% total.So adding a few percent for satellite failure makes the premiums line up with the observed failure rates much better.
Quote from: Rik ISS-fan on 10/21/2017 08:44 pmThese are implemented at block upgrades. And as I wrote in my reply, this is tested before implementation in scope of LEAP. Most are applied because the materials are no longer allowed or are no longer available.So you're saying that while A5 has had fairly extensive changes they were done en-mass as a block upgrade, and the design cut over to the new version after that? IOW although there were many individual changes because they were done all at once there is actually only 1 or 2 "change events" ?
These are implemented at block upgrades. And as I wrote in my reply, this is tested before implementation in scope of LEAP. Most are applied because the materials are no longer allowed or are no longer available.
If I'm not mistaken SpaceX is at least at version 7 of Falcon 9. (F9; F9 v1.1; F9 FT (five versions)).
Quote from: Rik ISS-fan on 10/22/2017 09:33 pmIf I'm not mistaken SpaceX is at least at version 7 of Falcon 9. (F9; F9 v1.1; F9 FT (five versions)).I believe you are mistaken. When they say "Falcon 9 Block 5", the reason it's a 5 is that the first Falcon 9 corresponds to block 1, v1.1 corresponds to block 2, and full thrust corresponds to block 3.Of course, there are more minor changes than the block numbering implies, but by that count the number of versions is far more than seven.
The first thing teachers told me about epoxy / polymers is that they are permeable, so LOx gets into it.So my oppinion is that this was totally to be expected. Very bad risk judgment from SpaceX, or ...
Quote from: john smith 19 on 10/22/2017 08:19 pmQuote from: Rik ISS-fan on 10/21/2017 08:44 pmThese are implemented at block upgrades. And as I wrote in my reply, this is tested before implementation in scope of LEAP. Most are applied because the materials are no longer allowed or are no longer available.So you're saying that while A5 has had fairly extensive changes they were done en-mass as a block upgrade, and the design cut over to the new version after that? IOW although there were many individual changes because they were done all at once there is actually only 1 or 2 "change events" ?Yes.I think they are now at version 10 or 11. (G, G+, GS, ES [3x], ECA{4|5x}. It's unfortunate that ESA removed the pages about the G, G+ and GS versions. They build the launchers in blocks of the same configuration, although there are several performance options.Arianespace announced that they are going to move away from block orders. But I think that they will implement the changes late. They are really conservative. If I'm not mistaken the Vulcain 2.1 has been performing bench tests from 2014. Possibly they will implement it in the PC batch, but Ariane 6 could also be the first use. The difference between Vulcain 2 and Vulcain 2.1 is the production method for the nozzle. (and a lot of other tweeks most likely)In my oppinion the move form A5 ECA to A6 is roughly the same as the move from A5 G to ECA.