Author Topic: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2  (Read 122120 times)

Online TrevorMonty

Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #480 on: 11/07/2018 02:25 pm »
I thought that Gradatim was another word for slowly.

It was my mistake.

The reason why made that statement was because SpaceX launched their first orbital-class rocket four years after it was founded, but by the time Blue Origin launches New Glenn, itíll have been twenty years since the company began.
Blue started with goal of RLV, they didn't see any reason to waste resources on ELV. A multi engine Be3 powered RLV was on todo list but somewhere along way they decided  to jump straight to more useful sized NG.

If cashflow was an issue I suspect they would've produced a BE3 RLV or ELV. NS would be flying regularly with paying passengers.





Offline Lars-J

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4605
  • California
  • Liked: 4211
  • Likes Given: 2543
Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #481 on: 11/07/2018 04:21 pm »
If cashflow was an issue I suspect they would've produced a BE3 RLV or ELV. NS would be flying regularly with paying passengers.

Sure, but you need to fly to learn. Saying that you don't fly because you don't have to (we have all the cash we need!), that just points out that having tons of money does not buy you progress.

Online TrevorMonty

Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #482 on: 11/07/2018 05:52 pm »
If cashflow was an issue I suspect they would've produced a BE3 RLV or ELV. NS would be flying regularly with paying passengers.

Sure, but you need to fly to learn. Saying that you don't fly because you don't have to (we have all the cash we need!), that just points out that having tons of money does not buy you progress.
A smaller orbital RLV would help them learn, but for extra cost of it they could afford to crater a few NGs. Even with smaller predecessor NG would still be new LV with all the associated early flight risks.
Better to go straight to useful NG and budget for a few early failures.


Online Johnnyhinbos

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1657
  • Boston, MA
  • Liked: 2302
  • Likes Given: 299
Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #483 on: 11/07/2018 06:22 pm »
I think this thread is an okay place for folks to vent some occasional steam over the apparent lack of continual progress on the many BO fronts. I too wish things would progress at a more jaunty pace. I mean, I only have so much time on this planet and I'd love to see great things happen during my short stay here.

That said however, here's my hope...

Blue has been working on many fronts for quite some time:
- sub-orbital rocket development
- orbital class engine development
- vacuum capable engine development
- restartable engine development
- orbital class rocket development
- rocket landing technology, both sub-orbital and orbital
- human-rated LSS
- landing ship development (and procurement)
- rocket production / refirb facility development (and buildout)
- tool development
- launch site development


And that's just to name a few. That's a lot of effort on many fronts. Therefore the apparent progress, when looking at any one area, appears quite slow. However I expect a logarithmic progression as these seemingly disparate development efforts converge and it's my thinking that we are standing at the base of a steep vertical climb on the timeline of progress, looking back at the nearly horizontal progress line and lamenting on the lack of progress without realizing the steep vertical progress line that's about to, ahem, rocket up just ahead of us. 


I hope I'm right, but the good thing is time will tell!
John Hanzl. Author, action / adventure www.johnhanzl.com

Offline LouScheffer

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1944
  • Liked: 2614
  • Likes Given: 288
Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #484 on: 11/08/2018 01:49 pm »
That's a lot of effort on many fronts. Therefore the apparent progress, when looking at any one area, appears quite slow. However I expect a logarithmic progression as these seemingly disparate development efforts converge...

That's the problem!   They've confused log() and exp() - with log(), progress gets slower and slower as time goes on, but with exp(), progress is slow at first, then speeds up dramatically.

In all seriousness, I worry that we don't see much experimental work, in areas like hypersonic aerodynamics.  This is super-non-trivial.  For example, *all* Mars probes are exactly the same shape, because it's known to work and no one trusts computational hypersonic aerodynamics enough try any other shape.  Likewise the Soviet Buran was exactly the same shape as the shuttle, for the same reason.

The fins on New Glenn have to work with known control laws at hypersonic speeds.  Likewise they will need to control heating on the hypersonic entry of the first stage, a notoriously tricky computational problem.  So I'd think Blue would be trying a New Shepard with New Glenn style fins, renting time on hypersonic tunnels, etc.  But I don't see any of this, and if you do a full-up design, *then* test it, there is a rather high risk of schedule-busting unexpected developments.

Online Tulse

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 167
  • Liked: 95
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #485 on: 11/08/2018 03:42 pm »
In all seriousness, I worry that we don't see much experimental work, in areas like hypersonic aerodynamics. 

[...]

The fins on New Glenn have to work with known control laws at hypersonic speeds.  Likewise they will need to control heating on the hypersonic entry of the first stage, a notoriously tricky computational problem.  So I'd think Blue would be trying a New Shepard with New Glenn style fins, renting time on hypersonic tunnels, etc.  But I don't see any of this, and if you do a full-up design, *then* test it, there is a rather high risk of schedule-busting unexpected developments.
And that is exactly what SpaceX seems to be doing with its "mini-BFS" -- experimentally testing the aerodynamics (and TPS) of its full-sized vehicle.  It would be very heartening to see BO do something similar.

Offline Slarty1080

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 586
  • UK
  • Liked: 242
  • Likes Given: 92
Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #486 on: 11/12/2018 10:38 am »
In all seriousness, I worry that we don't see much experimental work, in areas like hypersonic aerodynamics. 

[...]

The fins on New Glenn have to work with known control laws at hypersonic speeds.  Likewise they will need to control heating on the hypersonic entry of the first stage, a notoriously tricky computational problem.  So I'd think Blue would be trying a New Shepard with New Glenn style fins, renting time on hypersonic tunnels, etc.  But I don't see any of this, and if you do a full-up design, *then* test it, there is a rather high risk of schedule-busting unexpected developments.
And that is exactly what SpaceX seems to be doing with its "mini-BFS" -- experimentally testing the aerodynamics (and TPS) of its full-sized vehicle.  It would be very heartening to see BO do something similar.

I wonder if BO are fearful of anything ever going wrong on a flight because if it does it might have an adverse effect on their standing due to their stated slow but sure method? Many might assume (wrongly IMO) that slow but sure means no accidents. If so real gaps in human knowledge might take them a long time to overcome. Whereas the SpaceX way of doing it would be very much suck it and see. If it blows up fix it and try again.
The first words spoken on Mars: "Humans have been wondering if there was any life on the planet Mars for many decades Ö well ... there is now!"

Offline docmordrid

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5236
  • Michigan
  • Liked: 2492
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #487 on: 11/13/2018 12:09 am »
>
I wonder if BO are fearful of anything ever going wrong on a flight because if it does it might have an adverse effect on their standing due to their stated slow but sure method? >

They've lost a vehicle  before, Propulsion Module 2 in 2011, and they had a BE-4 powerpack commit seppuku,  so I doubt it. 
« Last Edit: 11/13/2018 12:12 am by docmordrid »
DM

Offline ZachS09

Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #488 on: 11/13/2018 12:48 am »
There was also a landing failure of the first New Shepard constructed; this occurred in April 2015. Despite the Crew Capsule landing safely, a hydraulic failure caused the booster to crash and burn.
Because the Falcon Heavy Test Flight was successful, it has inspired thousands of people to consider changing the future of space travel.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6993
  • UK
    • Plan 28
  • Liked: 7070
  • Likes Given: 2292
Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #489 on: 11/28/2018 03:32 pm »
https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1067790448507396098

'Few months'?!

Sounds to me like Blue are either working on changes to New Shepard (e.g. due to issue(s) from previous flight and/or doing upgrades) or New Shepard just isn't a priority and resources are focussed elsewhere.

Only one flight in 2017 and looks like only 2 in 2018, after 4 successful flights in 2016, I find hard to understand.

Offline TripleSeven

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 761
  • Istanbul turkey
  • Liked: 322
  • Likes Given: 1381
Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #490 on: 11/28/2018 03:55 pm »
https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1067790448507396098

'Few months'?!

Sounds to me like Blue are either working on changes to New Shepard (e.g. due to issue(s) from previous flight and/or doing upgrades) or New Shepard just isn't a priority and resources are focussed elsewhere.

Only one flight in 2017 and looks like only 2 in 2018, after 4 successful flights in 2016, I find hard to understand.

I think they are just where they want to be..

Offline Coastal Ron

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4374
  • I live... along the coast
  • Liked: 3027
  • Likes Given: 4035
Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #491 on: 11/28/2018 03:58 pm »
Sounds to me like Blue are either working on changes to New Shepard (e.g. due to issue(s) from previous flight and/or doing upgrades) or New Shepard just isn't a priority and resources are focussed elsewhere.

Only one flight in 2017 and looks like only 2 in 2018, after 4 successful flights in 2016, I find hard to understand.

Hard to tell what their priorities are when their progress is so hard to see.
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline Coastal Ron

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4374
  • I live... along the coast
  • Liked: 3027
  • Likes Given: 4035
Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #492 on: 11/28/2018 04:06 pm »
Sounds to me like Blue are either working on changes to New Shepard (e.g. due to issue(s) from previous flight and/or doing upgrades) or New Shepard just isn't a priority and resources are focussed elsewhere.

Only one flight in 2017 and looks like only 2 in 2018, after 4 successful flights in 2016, I find hard to understand.

I think they are just where they want to be..

Maybe. Maybe not. There is no evidence to support either conclusion.

However just like everyone else in their market space, Blue Origin is being judged by what they accomplish. And if the rate of accomplishment for an operational system is slow (i.e. New Shepard), then it's fair to wonder if their future development efforts for New Glenn will also be slow.

In some ways it's good that New Glenn development is no longer at the total whim of Jeff Bezos - they have a $500M contract they have to execute for the USAF, and that means they have schedules to meet.

But apparent lack of progress with New Shepard raises the question of whether they can execute all of their priorities right now...
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline TripleSeven

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 761
  • Istanbul turkey
  • Liked: 322
  • Likes Given: 1381
Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #493 on: 11/28/2018 04:11 pm »
Sounds to me like Blue are either working on changes to New Shepard (e.g. due to issue(s) from previous flight and/or doing upgrades) or New Shepard just isn't a priority and resources are focussed elsewhere.

Only one flight in 2017 and looks like only 2 in 2018, after 4 successful flights in 2016, I find hard to understand.

I think they are just where they want to be..

Maybe. Maybe not. There is no evidence to support either conclusion.

However just like everyone else in their market space, Blue Origin is being judged by what they accomplish. And if the rate of accomplishment for an operational system is slow (i.e. New Shepard), then it's fair to wonder if their future development efforts for New Glenn will also be slow.

In some ways it's good that New Glenn development is no longer at the total whim of Jeff Bezos - they have a $500M contract they have to execute for the USAF, and that means they have schedules to meet.

But apparent lack of progress with New Shepard raises the question of whether they can execute all of their priorities right now...

My "thought process" is that if they were unhappy with the progress that was being made, they are not asset limited...and the assets would 1) either be committed to fix the progress issue that they were concerned with...or if the thought was that the assets committed were being spent badly causing the lack of progress...people would be going out the door and new people coming into it

They got their USAF contract which is one of the key goals I think thaat they had...no one is leaving (of any significance) and assets are constant...so...in my thought process since no change is happening...they are steady as she goes.

JB is not out looking for loans.

Offline kevinof

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 707
  • Antibes
  • Liked: 514
  • Likes Given: 555
Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #494 on: 11/28/2018 04:30 pm »
What a rubbish comment. So the inverse of this is that JB with all his billions can't "appear" to get even a sub-orbital platform on the pad and ready to fly.

A bit of balance in your posts would be very welcome.

..
JB is not out looking for loans.

Offline notsorandom

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1721
  • Ohio
  • Liked: 418
  • Likes Given: 91
Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #495 on: 11/28/2018 04:33 pm »
I have to wonder if the slow down in flight rate and time since the last flight are due to the major changes they've made in the BE-3.

Offline TripleSeven

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 761
  • Istanbul turkey
  • Liked: 322
  • Likes Given: 1381
Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #496 on: 11/28/2018 04:35 pm »
What a rubbish comment. So the inverse of this is that JB with all his billions can't "appear" to get even a sub-orbital platform on the pad and ready to fly.

A bit of balance in your posts would be very welcome.

..
JB is not out looking for loans.

I had no meaning associated with it other than the stated one related to my comment on assets.  What ever meaning you put on it is well yours.

IF JB was unhappy with his progress he has the assets to change that progress...he doesnt have to go out and look for loans to increase his assets to increase progress.  Since he does not have to do that...and is not increasing the assets associated with his efforts or firing those who are using them...then he must be happy with his progress

I am not aware of any other attempt at meaning. 

Offline TripleSeven

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 761
  • Istanbul turkey
  • Liked: 322
  • Likes Given: 1381
Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #497 on: 11/28/2018 04:37 pm »
I have to wonder if the slow down in flight rate and time since the last flight are due to the major changes they've made in the BE-3.

That strikes me as a good assumption...without the engine development firmly in hand...you dont have a vehicle

Offline Lars-J

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4605
  • California
  • Liked: 4211
  • Likes Given: 2543
Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #498 on: 11/28/2018 04:38 pm »
If they truly were planning to fly passengers next year, they should be flying frequently now to validate it, at least monthly. Bezos should have no problem funding that. The fact that they are not suggests that they are not meeting their internal deadlines. Why? Who knows. But "we've got billions!!!!" is rapidly becoming a tired excuse.

Offline TripleSeven

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 761
  • Istanbul turkey
  • Liked: 322
  • Likes Given: 1381
Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #499 on: 11/28/2018 04:41 pm »
If they truly were planning to fly passengers next year, they should be flying frequently now to validate it, at least monthly. Bezos should have no problem funding that. The fact that they are not suggests that they are not meeting their internal deadlines. Why? Who knows. But "we've got billions!!!!" is rapidly becoming a tired excuse.

We will see...from a. Test pilot pespective I dont know if I agree with that analysis or conclusion ...but we willsee.   My belief is that both JB and RB are on the verge of flying paying passengers.

Small edit..."absent some problems that develop which I think are unlikely" I think both are on the verge of flying passengers...I suspect that they both have the initial "group" picked out...
« Last Edit: 11/28/2018 04:52 pm by TripleSeven »

Tags: