Author Topic: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2  (Read 126317 times)

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #280 on: 05/27/2018 05:47 pm »
The thread title is "Blue Origin general discussion". No SX discussions please.

Offline Brovane

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #281 on: 05/27/2018 07:43 pm »


Not needing to develop lunar hardware means someone with the skills and abilities finding the funding to do so in advance of your launch, and them being willing to risk launching with you.
It means them developing hardware that fits your timeline and capabilities, and does not delay what you may intend by four or ten years.
It means they can easily and affordably grow their initial test hardware out to 'lots' as scaled.

This is a lot of requirements to put on external companies. At least initially, when nobody with money (other than your CEO) believes you will be capable of providing the service, or they do not see a profit in it.

The situation is fairly analogous IMO.
None of the 'serious' institutional providers is geared up to provide hardware like this, especially with no formal budget, and none of the usual round of subcontractors either.

The same forces that lead to not being able to find more than a boilerplate thing to launch on FH apply perhaps even stronger to a hypothetical Blue lunar effort. There are at least in principle various satellites awaiting launch. There is very much less lunar hardware.

With Blue Origin we are kind of going into unchartered territory.  We have a CEO who just isn't a billionaire he is literally the world's richest person at $130B whose wealth is based on a extremely strong company, Amazon who just keeps growing.  Essentially BO is Bezos "hobby company". 

“One of two things will happen,” he said. “Either other people will take over the vision, or I’ll run out of money.”

Literally with that type of money he can create his own payloads as necessary.  Bezos could self fund his own lunar exploration program including manned landings.   

NASA and other organizations might not get on board until literally a BO payload is sitting on the lunar surface and prospecting water.  Or a BO astronaut is standing on the lunar surface and NASA is still struggling with getting out of LEO.  Bezos has the financial means to take it this far. 
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Offline DJPledger

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #282 on: 05/27/2018 07:59 pm »
Article in the Wall Street Journal by Andy Pasztor.  It is an interesting article.  I find it curious that Jeff Bezos says that he may develop rovers and habitats for the Moon.
Why?
If you've got a reusable launch vehicle that can launch cargo to the moon for $1000/kg or so landed to the surface (cost) - where else are you going to get rovers that are millions, not billions of dollars?
'If you build it they will come' runs the risk of being another Tesla in space moment.

I don't understand how your analogy to Tesla has any relevance to this discussion.
To be more specific, the Tesla as a payload for FH, when a real payload did not materialise.
Just because you have delivered a capability does not mean the market will exploit it.
It could be that he's done more research and come to the conclusion that in-house may be a faster, more certain, cheaper option.

A quick look at the SpaceX manifest shows customers buying three scheduled Heavy flights (STP-2, Arabsat 6A, and an option for 3-EMEA), all contracted well before the demo launch.  These were presumably contingent on a successful demo -- hence the dummy payload on that flight -- but the implication that SpaceX was unable to find commercial customers for Heavy is just wrong. They could; it's just that all of them wanted to see a successful demo before risking their payload.

Mind you, it's certainly true that all sorts of technically neat products have been developed, in aerospace and elsewhere, by people who focused on technical "sweetness" and were then unable to find buyers. And commercial prospects for lunar anything are pretty risky. But Falcon Heavy isn't a good example.  And this risk, though real, is mitigated for Blue in any event because given their $1 billion a year of Bezos money, they aren't constrained much by needing to find customers.
It appears that customers are choosing NG over other vehicles for their heavy satellite launching needs.

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #283 on: 05/27/2018 08:55 pm »


Not needing to develop lunar hardware means someone with the skills and abilities finding the funding to do so in advance of your launch, and them being willing to risk launching with you.
It means them developing hardware that fits your timeline and capabilities, and does not delay what you may intend by four or ten years.
It means they can easily and affordably grow their initial test hardware out to 'lots' as scaled.

This is a lot of requirements to put on external companies. At least initially, when nobody with money (other than your CEO) believes you will be capable of providing the service, or they do not see a profit in it.

The situation is fairly analogous IMO.
None of the 'serious' institutional providers is geared up to provide hardware like this, especially with no formal budget, and none of the usual round of subcontractors either.

The same forces that lead to not being able to find more than a boilerplate thing to launch on FH apply perhaps even stronger to a hypothetical Blue lunar effort. There are at least in principle various satellites awaiting launch. There is very much less lunar hardware.

With Blue Origin we are kind of going into unchartered territory.  We have a CEO who just isn't a billionaire he is literally the world's richest person at $130B whose wealth is based on a extremely strong company, Amazon who just keeps growing.  Essentially BO is Bezos "hobby company". 

“One of two things will happen,” he said. “Either other people will take over the vision, or I’ll run out of money.”

Literally with that type of money he can create his own payloads as necessary.  Bezos could self fund his own lunar exploration program including manned landings.   

NASA and other organizations might not get on board until literally a BO payload is sitting on the lunar surface and prospecting water.  Or a BO astronaut is standing on the lunar surface and NASA is still struggling with getting out of LEO.  Bezos has the financial means to take it this far.
Once NS and NG are flying commercially the income should cover Blue operating cost and some. That well leave Jeff's annual $1B injection free for R&D and lunar missions. When the launch is at cost price  on a RLV, $1B buys a lot of lunar missions.

Offline QuantumG

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #284 on: 05/28/2018 04:59 am »
So, let's get public sources:  What do we know about any people's names on the Blue Origin team?  What do we know about who their former employers were?  for which years?  Who, from all of Kistler's people are not working, at Blue Origin today?  How many ever joined Blue from Kistler?  At what levels of responsibility?  When?  What evidence do we have that any persons who formerly were employed by Kistler are playing the major directional role at Blue?

It's common knowledge in the space community, which I figured people on this forum were in.

Anyway, go trawl through LinkedIn, if that's your thing.
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Offline woods170

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #285 on: 05/28/2018 07:19 am »
So, let's get public sources:  What do we know about any people's names on the Blue Origin team?  What do we know about who their former employers were?  for which years?  Who, from all of Kistler's people are not working, at Blue Origin today?  How many ever joined Blue from Kistler?  At what levels of responsibility?  When?  What evidence do we have that any persons who formerly were employed by Kistler are playing the major directional role at Blue?

It's common knowledge in the space community, which I figured people on this forum were in.

Anyway, go trawl through LinkedIn, if that's your thing.


Lotsa people here are in the space community. But your revelation that Blue's orbital team is basically "reheated Kistler" is in fact a surprise to several of those people. So, I wouldn't exactly call it "common knowledge".
Unless your revelation is really just an assumption.

Offline MikeAtkinson

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #286 on: 05/28/2018 09:00 am »
So, let's get public sources:  What do we know about any people's names on the Blue Origin team?  What do we know about who their former employers were?  for which years?  Who, from all of Kistler's people are not working, at Blue Origin today?  How many ever joined Blue from Kistler?  At what levels of responsibility?  When?  What evidence do we have that any persons who formerly were employed by Kistler are playing the major directional role at Blue?

It's common knowledge in the space community, which I figured people on this forum were in.

Anyway, go trawl through LinkedIn, if that's your thing.


Lotsa people here are in the space community. But your revelation that Blue's orbital team is basically "reheated Kistler" is in fact a surprise to several of those people. So, I wouldn't exactly call it "common knowledge".
Unless your revelation is really just an assumption.

I tried to verify within LinkedIn but gave up after about 10 mins, it was clear that many Blue employees do not have a LinkedIn profile (or at least not one visible to me) and most of the ones visible had details hidden.

Online jpo234

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #287 on: 05/28/2018 09:45 am »
So, let's get public sources:  What do we know about any people's names on the Blue Origin team?  What do we know about who their former employers were?  for which years?  Who, from all of Kistler's people are not working, at Blue Origin today?  How many ever joined Blue from Kistler?  At what levels of responsibility?  When?  What evidence do we have that any persons who formerly were employed by Kistler are playing the major directional role at Blue?

For starters Rob Meyerson.
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Offline woods170

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #288 on: 05/28/2018 12:25 pm »
So, let's get public sources:  What do we know about any people's names on the Blue Origin team?  What do we know about who their former employers were?  for which years?  Who, from all of Kistler's people are not working, at Blue Origin today?  How many ever joined Blue from Kistler?  At what levels of responsibility?  When?  What evidence do we have that any persons who formerly were employed by Kistler are playing the major directional role at Blue?

For starters Rob Meyerson.

Kistler was more than just Meyerson. To even remotely corroborate Trent's claim we'll need several more names of which it can proven that they worked for Kistler once and are now working for Blue.

Offline MaxTeranous

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #289 on: 05/28/2018 12:28 pm »
Why does it even matter? People have employment histories. Doesn’t mean they’re doing exactly the same thing as in the past.

Offline woods170

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #290 on: 05/28/2018 12:51 pm »
Why does it even matter? People have employment histories. Doesn’t mean they’re doing exactly the same thing as in the past.

Correct. Which is why Trent's post IMO came dangerously close to trolling.

Offline Llian Rhydderch

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #291 on: 05/28/2018 08:34 pm »
Trent made a claim that the non-suborbital team at Blue Origin is just reheated Kistler Aerospace.

He's been asked by many here to put up data to back that extensive claim.  He is apparently unwilling to do so, or cannot, and goes for the "it's common knowledge" dodge.

As said above, Trent, the BMOF stuff is wearing awfully thin.  Moreover, it's hurting your reputation as it counterbalances the often useful analysis you can bring when you put your mind to it.  I think we can do better; and do better it treating the readers of this forum as your colleagues in the endeavor of learning about spaceflight technology development, not little people who ought to know what you know.
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Online meekGee

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #292 on: 05/28/2018 11:57 pm »
Trent made a claim that the non-suborbital team at Blue Origin is just reheated Kistler Aerospace.

He's been asked by many here to put up data to back that extensive claim.  He is apparently unwilling to do so, or cannot, and goes for the "it's common knowledge" dodge.

As said above, Trent, the BMOF stuff is wearing awfully thin.  Moreover, it's hurting your reputation as it counterbalances the often useful analysis you can bring when you put your mind to it.  I think we can do better; and do better it treating the readers of this forum as your colleagues in the endeavor of learning about spaceflight technology development, not little people who ought to know what you know.

Lilian - specific employment information is generally sensitive.  What you're asking for in essence is a good list of BO's leading engineering staff.

I don't think QG can or will do that, and if he did, it'll be modded off in a blink.

Whether these people moved on to BO after K1 was canceled - at least the timing is right.  And it's a small industry.  And they are less likely to have gone to SpaceX or ULA, timing wise.
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Offline Rabidpanda

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #293 on: 05/29/2018 12:57 am »
Trent made a claim that the non-suborbital team at Blue Origin is just reheated Kistler Aerospace.

He's been asked by many here to put up data to back that extensive claim.  He is apparently unwilling to do so, or cannot, and goes for the "it's common knowledge" dodge.

As said above, Trent, the BMOF stuff is wearing awfully thin.  Moreover, it's hurting your reputation as it counterbalances the often useful analysis you can bring when you put your mind to it.  I think we can do better; and do better it treating the readers of this forum as your colleagues in the endeavor of learning about spaceflight technology development, not little people who ought to know what you know.

Lilian - specific employment information is generally sensitive.  What you're asking for in essence is a good list of BO's leading engineering staff.

I don't think QG can or will do that, and if he did, it'll be modded off in a blink.

Whether these people moved on to BO after K1 was canceled - at least the timing is right.  And it's a small industry.  And they are less likely to have gone to SpaceX or ULA, timing wise.

What? Employment information is not generally sensitive. It’s all over LinkedIn and Facebook.

QG made very specific claims with nothing to back them up. It’s perfectly reasonable to call him out on it. At the very least his post should have used different language to emphasize that he is stating a rumor instead of an objective fact.

Online meekGee

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #294 on: 05/29/2018 01:04 am »
Trent made a claim that the non-suborbital team at Blue Origin is just reheated Kistler Aerospace.

He's been asked by many here to put up data to back that extensive claim.  He is apparently unwilling to do so, or cannot, and goes for the "it's common knowledge" dodge.

As said above, Trent, the BMOF stuff is wearing awfully thin.  Moreover, it's hurting your reputation as it counterbalances the often useful analysis you can bring when you put your mind to it.  I think we can do better; and do better it treating the readers of this forum as your colleagues in the endeavor of learning about spaceflight technology development, not little people who ought to know what you know.

Lilian - specific employment information is generally sensitive.  What you're asking for in essence is a good list of BO's leading engineering staff.

I don't think QG can or will do that, and if he did, it'll be modded off in a blink.

Whether these people moved on to BO after K1 was canceled - at least the timing is right.  And it's a small industry.  And they are less likely to have gone to SpaceX or ULA, timing wise.

What? Employment information is not generally sensitive. It’s all over LinkedIn and Facebook.

QG made very specific claims with nothing to back them up. It’s perfectly reasonable to call him out on it. At the very least his post should have used different language to emphasize that he is stating a rumor instead of an objective fact.
Heh if it's not sensitive, don't just make claims about "all over Linked In" like you know who...  Prove it...

Works both ways...

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« Last Edit: 05/29/2018 01:38 am by meekGee »
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #295 on: 05/29/2018 02:51 am »
They can be a gang or a club within Blue Origin, but if they don't do what the boss wants they will be unemployed...

Bezos isn't like Musk... he doesn't understand rocketry, or even pretend to.
True that Bezos doesn’t have his hands deep into the design of the rockets like Musk, but I’m certain he has a pretty good understanding of rocketry. He’s an electrical engineer, so shouldn’t have much problem with most of the concepts, same as many of the knowledgeable people here. But I suspect you’re right that he’s not trying to be a rocket designer or engineer like Musk.
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Offline TrevorMonty

Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #296 on: 05/29/2018 03:36 am »
An interview with Jeff on his lunar plans. Having the richest man on planet pouring his wealth into lunar base is a dream come true for us moon first fans. Just as importantly it should help others get private funding (from VCs not Jeff) for their lunar plans.

techcrunch.com/2018/05/27/jeff-bezos-details-his-moon-colony-ambitions/

A couple of extracts from article.

and while a partnership with NASA, the ESA and others would be best, Blue Origin  will do it solo if it has to.

In the meantime he’s funding Blue Origin with his own money to pursue these lofty ambitions. And he’ll keep going, he said, until someone else picks up the ball or he goes broke — and he and Alan agreed that the latter seems unlikely.
« Last Edit: 05/29/2018 03:41 am by TrevorMonty »

Offline Asteroza

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #297 on: 05/29/2018 03:42 am »
Jeff says they bought the boat for landing NG and are refitting it? Sounds like our marine sleuths over in the SpaceX ASDS threads ought to be given a heads up for a new hunting target...

Offline johnlandish

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #298 on: 05/29/2018 10:48 pm »
"but our BE-3U engine, which is the upper-stage variant of our liquid hydrogen engine, made such fast progress that we decided to flip that second stage to hydrogen. Then the two-stage vehicle gets vastly improved performance." - Jeff Bezos on using two BE-3U's instead of one BE-4U. 

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #299 on: 05/29/2018 10:51 pm »
"but our BE-3U engine, which is the upper-stage variant of our liquid hydrogen engine, made such fast progress that we decided to flip that second stage to hydrogen. Then the two-stage vehicle gets vastly improved performance." - Jeff Bezos on using two BE-3U's instead of one BE-4U.
Source: Jeff Bezos: ‘We will have to leave this planet … and it’s going to make this planet better’

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