Author Topic: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2  (Read 105395 times)

Offline meberbs

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #320 on: 07/13/2018 05:03 PM »
From the Reuters article:
Quote
The company will do the first test in space of its capsule escape system, which propels the crew to safety should the booster explode, “within weeks,” one of the employees said.

Since we know that this has already been tested, that statement is certainly wrong. I doubt they would do another escape test, since the first didn't have any obvious issues, but not impossible.

The article also says:
Quote
While Blue Origin has not disclosed its per-flight operating costs, Teal Group aerospace analyst Marco Caceres estimated each flight could cost the firm about $10 million
Not sure how they got that number, but it clearly seems off by an order of magnitude. Given full reuse, and previous statements about refurbishment time and cost, there is no way that figure makes any sense.

The per ticket price in the article isn't really news, they have said before that it would be comparable to their competition.

Offline M.E.T.

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #321 on: 07/13/2018 05:10 PM »
Is this intended to be a profitable venture? At 6 paying tourists per flight and $200k per ticket, that’s a maximum of $1.2 million revenue per flight.

Is that viable? How much does this rocket cost to launch?
« Last Edit: 07/13/2018 05:18 PM by M.E.T. »

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #322 on: 07/13/2018 05:52 PM »
Is this intended to be a profitable venture? At 6 paying tourists per flight and $200k per ticket, that’s a maximum of $1.2 million revenue per flight.

Is that viable? How much does this rocket cost to launch?
They've stated  less than$100k to turn around between flights. Should be case of repack capsule parachutes, refuel or replace retro rockets and refuel booster. Even if it went as high as $500k they would still be making good money.

Big ticket item is replacement cost of booster and capsule after so many flights.

Offline M.E.T.

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #323 on: 07/14/2018 04:41 AM »
Is this intended to be a profitable venture? At 6 paying tourists per flight and $200k per ticket, that’s a maximum of $1.2 million revenue per flight.

Is that viable? How much does this rocket cost to launch?
They've stated  less than$100k to turn around between flights. Should be case of repack capsule parachutes, refuel or replace retro rockets and refuel booster. Even if it went as high as $500k they would still be making good money.

Big ticket item is replacement cost of booster and capsule after so many flights.

The cost per flight of course includes the amortization/depreciation costs of the rocket and capsule over the lifetime number of launches. So if it costs $20m to construct the rocket and capsule, and you get 10 flights from it, then the cost per flight is effectively $2m. Plus the "$100k turn around cost between flights".

So the question is, how much does it cost to build and operate a New Shepard Rocket and Crew Capsule  and how many flights can you get out of each one? That figure then needs to be compared to the +-$1.2m revenue per flight.

What I'm trying to understand is whether BO is trying to run this as a profitable venture, or whether they are using Bezos's billions in subsidization to run this at a loss to capture market share.

Offline meberbs

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #324 on: 07/14/2018 05:54 AM »
What I'm trying to understand is whether BO is trying to run this as a profitable venture, or whether they are using Bezos's billions in subsidization to run this at a loss to capture market share.
$20 million for a New Shepard is probably an overestimate. Comparing size, number of engines etc. to a Falcon 9, it would be more like around $10 million most likely. Even at just 10 reuses (most likely can do more) that is just $1 million amortized per launch, plus maybe $100k recurring cost. The ticket prices will be set to make a profit. If they just wanted to steal market share without profit, they would just undercut Virgin by a factor of 2.

They most likely will make use of Bezo's fortune to write off most R&D costs though. That makes sense to do since a lot of their R&D to date has been general purpose to get the company going. Even New Shepard itself is mostly to buy down risk for New Glenn, which will enable larger overall profits.

Blue Origin wouldn't accomplish its goals if they weren't actually reducing cost of spaceflight, so they care about making sure they are actually turning a net profit on their products. Bezos won't just subsidize everything to artificially lower the price of spaceflight. That would backfire for his main goal of millions of people in space.

Offline yg1968

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #325 on: 07/17/2018 03:09 AM »
The original article is on Reuters: Exclusive: Jeff Bezos plans to charge at least $200,000 for space rides - sources  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-blueorigin-exclusive/exclusive-jeff-bezos-plans-to-charge-at-least-200000-for-space-rides-sources-idUSKBN1K301R everybody else just quoted them

Jeff Bezos says that a price has not been seriously discussed at this time:

https://www.geekwire.com/2018/200000-trip-space-blue-origin-says-price-hasnt-seriously-discussed/

Offline tyrred

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #326 on: 07/17/2018 06:23 AM »
Forgive me for sounding naive or obtuse, but... how can Bezos have not seriously discussed the price of a ticket to ride his company's suborbital space tourism vehicle?

Online woods170

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #327 on: 07/17/2018 07:18 AM »
Forgive me for sounding naive or obtuse, but... how can Bezos have not seriously discussed the price of a ticket to ride his company's suborbital space tourism vehicle?

Less than two months ago Bezos said something very similar about the ticket price:

https://spacenews.com/blue-origin-plans-to-start-selling-suborbital-spaceflight-tickets-next-year/

Quote from: Jeff Foust
Even the company’s billionaire owner has not disclosed details. “We don’t know the ticket price yet. We haven’t decided,” said Jeff Bezos in an on-stage interview May 25 at the National Space Society’s International Space Development Conference in Los Angeles.

The answer to your question is: Jeff Bezos will discuss the ticket price when he is...
Quote from: Maverick
...g*ddamn good and ready. You got that?!
« Last Edit: 07/17/2018 07:22 AM by woods170 »

Offline SimonFD

Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #328 on: 07/17/2018 08:47 AM »
Forgive me for sounding naive or obtuse, but... how can Bezos have not seriously discussed the price of a ticket to ride his company's suborbital space tourism vehicle?

Of course he's discussed the price! Just not with us..... ;)
Mrs Doyle: "What would you say to a cup of tea, Father?"
Father Jack: "FECK OFF, CUP!"

Offline tyrred

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #329 on: 07/17/2018 09:58 AM »
Recent report of $200,000 - $300,000 ticket price for New Shepard.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-blueorigin-exclusive/exclusive-jeff-bezos-plans-to-charge-at-least-200000-for-space-rides-sources-idUSKBN1K301R

Any reports of how many passengers have booked a flight?


Offline SciNews

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #330 on: 07/17/2018 11:52 AM »
By "leaking" these prices, Blue Origin is making marketing research. The prices will be adjusted according to the demand.
In other news, BBC: "Amazon's Jeff Bezos beats Bill Gates in new rich list" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-44858517
Quote
Amazon founder Jeff Bezos is now worth $150bn (£113bn), according to the Bloomberg Billionaire Index.

Offline Kryten

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #331 on: 07/17/2018 03:02 PM »
Any reports of how many passengers have booked a flight?
None, they aren't being offered yet.

Offline Yeknom-Ecaps

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #332 on: 07/20/2018 03:55 PM »
Is there any "offsite" mission control?

SpaceX has its mission control at Hawthorne ..... I assume Blue Origin at West Texas (Van Horn) .... true? Any others?

Thanks.

Offline gongora

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #333 on: 09/20/2018 02:54 AM »
FCC File Number 0911-EX-ST-2018
Quote
Please explain the purpose of operation:    This application is for Flight #10 of the New Shepard space launch booster and capsule; receipt of telemetry data from the vehicles during flight.


Requested Period of Operation  Operation Start Date:   09/15/2018

They filed a new permit 1638-EX-ST-2018 to adjust the communications frequencies and bandwidth.  NET now October 1.

Offline Eric Hedman

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #334 on: 09/20/2018 05:23 AM »
FCC File Number 0911-EX-ST-2018
Quote
Please explain the purpose of operation:    This application is for Flight #10 of the New Shepard space launch booster and capsule; receipt of telemetry data from the vehicles during flight.


Requested Period of Operation  Operation Start Date:   09/15/2018

They filed a new permit 1638-EX-ST-2018 to adjust the communications frequencies and bandwidth.  NET now October 1.
Is there anyway to tell from the permits if they may actually fly people on the next flight?

Offline Eric Hedman

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #335 on: 09/20/2018 01:29 PM »
Article in Los Angeles Times says Bezos will spend $1 billion on New Glenn next year:

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-blue-origin-investment-20180919-story.html

Offline TripleSeven

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #336 on: 09/20/2018 01:36 PM »
Article in Los Angeles Times says Bezos will spend $1 billion on New Glenn next year:

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-blue-origin-investment-20180919-story.html

that means he is close to producing it or is ready to

Offline Lar

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #337 on: 09/20/2018 02:15 PM »
Article in Los Angeles Times says Bezos will spend $1 billion on New Glenn next year:

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-blue-origin-investment-20180919-story.html

that means he is close to producing it or is ready to
No it doesn't He's been spending that every year for a while.

I like what QuantumG said in an old signature (which I can no longer reproduce word for word but here's the gist)

"Just imagine, Bezos has so much money that Blue can move at whatever speed they want... so what speed do they choose? the SLOWEST speed possible"

Loud talking overaggrandizing snarky patent trolls. Who have yet to launch anything to orbit.

I wish them well anyway, competition is good. But I wish they were fair competitors that spoke truthfully. Especially their boss. who never misses a chance to snark.


« Last Edit: 09/20/2018 02:20 PM by Lar »
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Offline TripleSeven

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #338 on: 09/20/2018 02:24 PM »
Article in Los Angeles Times says Bezos will spend $1 billion on New Glenn next year:

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-blue-origin-investment-20180919-story.html

that means he is close to producing it or is ready to
No it doesn't He's been spending that every year for a while.

I like what QuantumG said in an old signature (which I can no longer reproduce word for word but here's the gist)

"Just imagine, Bezos has so much money that Blue can move at whatever speed they want... so what speed do they choose? the SLOWEST speed possible"

Loud talking overaggrandizing snarky patent trolls. Who have yet to launch anything to orbit.

I wish them well anyway, competition is good. But I wish they were fair competitors that spoke truthfully. Especially their boss. who never misses a chance to snark.

he has not been spending it on New Glenn...if the story is true and that is where the spending is, he is ready for first level production. 

there is a reason that they would chose a slow speed...its called good management.

Online ncb1397

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Re: Blue Origin General Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #339 on: 09/20/2018 02:24 PM »

Loud talking overaggrandizing snarky patent trolls. Who have yet to launch anything to orbit.

That is a pretty expansive definition of patent troll. Patent trolls sit on patents with no intention of using them, which we now know is not the case with Blue Origin. The patent was applied for in 2010, well before SpaceX was doing ship landings or even cutting any metal with the intention of doing so. If anyone made a mistake, it was the patent office issuing a patent too broad.

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