Author Topic: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION  (Read 393236 times)

Offline saliva_sweet

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #60 on: 10/14/2017 10:27 PM »
Saying it's a US Gov sat seems to contradict the statement by /u/ASTRALsunder saying that the operator has revenue targets to hit and shareholders to please:

"Yup, critical for the operator in this case. They have revenue targets to hit and shareholders to keep happy."
https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/76c3gw/spacex_has_an_approved_license_for_10_nov_launch/doda2gm/

Yes, but this story strains credulity. There appears to be a commercial customer that has pulled a satellite out of a hat. The launch is also so critical to their revenue that SpaceX employees need to worry about their bookkeeping. This is not something that should concern them at all. Perhaps the employees aren't told the whole story here? I'm suspecting something military. But aren't the nemesis sats in GEO? F9 would have to put Zuma to GTO and RTLS.

Offline russianhalo117

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #61 on: 10/14/2017 10:31 PM »
Saying it's a US Gov sat seems to contradict the statement by /u/ASTRALsunder saying that the operator has revenue targets to hit and shareholders to please:

"Yup, critical for the operator in this case. They have revenue targets to hit and shareholders to keep happy."
https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/76c3gw/spacex_has_an_approved_license_for_10_nov_launch/doda2gm/

Yes, but this story strains credulity. There appears to be a commercial customer that has pulled a satellite out of a hat. The launch is also so critical to their revenue that SpaceX employees need to worry about their bookkeeping. This is not something that should concern them at all. Perhaps the employees aren't told the whole story here? I'm suspecting something military. But aren't the nemesis sats in GEO? F9 would have to put Zuma to GTO and RTLS.
there are predecessor constellations to nemesis that had some of there satellites in other Non GEO orbits. Other factors are delivery methods. It is very rare for payloads to ship to the Cape by Sea but it has been done before as well as rail, air and road. People will need to keep their eye out for special convoys. Unless the payload arrived ages ago.

there are some payloads in the unclear and probably cancelled sections of the USA Launch Schedule that could fit in for a Non Nemesis payload.
« Last Edit: 10/14/2017 10:36 PM by russianhalo117 »

Offline Star One

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #62 on: 10/14/2017 10:38 PM »
Perhaps it's another PAN or CLIO type launch similar to what was launched on Atlas V. The agency responsible for those sats wasn't even named. Assuming, of course, this is military.

Guess you donít read all of this forum. I direct your attention towards the Signals Intelligence thread on here.
« Last Edit: 10/14/2017 10:43 PM by Star One »

Offline AncientU

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #63 on: 10/14/2017 10:50 PM »
Anything military or bought from someone else... or flown for someone else is a stretch.  The only customer SpaceX needs/wants to protect for strategic reasons is SpaceX.

IMO, this is the SpaceX 'Sputnik Moment'... where they do something completely outside of the established norms -- something 'private' spaceflight has never done* before because spaceflight has always been quasi-government masquerading as 'commercial'.  As to the 'future income' opportunity, many things would qualify... landing a Dragon capsule, winning the Lunar X-Prize, laser comms demo of their own satellites... radio silent until FCC approval, whatever... you know, Zuma.

Just plan on Zuma appearing on the front page as a result...


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Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #64 on: 10/14/2017 10:56 PM »
We've been told this is a new booster, and some of the payloads from their paying customers have been moved to 2018 because SpaceX doesn't have the capacity to launch them this year.  It doesn't seem like a great time to be pulling a publicity stunt.  I would guess this is not an internal payload.

Offline vapour_nudge

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #65 on: 10/14/2017 10:59 PM »
I don't know what this satellite is, but I have seen it called Zuma (not capitals - but could easily be ZUMA as in Z.U.M.A - honestly do not know). So it is a mystery payload, but for the purpose of this thread we can call it codename Zuma.

It is supposed to be riding on a new booster.
From left of field: in reference to Elon Musk's South African roots, the very wealthy president of South Africa is Joseph Zuma. Just throwing it out there. I have no idea why someone would name a mission after him of course
« Last Edit: 10/14/2017 11:01 PM by vapour_nudge »

Offline jpo234

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #66 on: 10/14/2017 11:01 PM »
I guess somebody was willing to pay a lot more than $62 million.
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Offline russianhalo117

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #67 on: 10/14/2017 11:08 PM »
I don't know what this satellite is, but I have seen it called Zuma (not capitals - but could easily be ZUMA as in Z.U.M.A - honestly do not know). So it is a mystery payload, but for the purpose of this thread we can call it codename Zuma.

It is supposed to be riding on a new booster.
From left of field: in reference to Elon Musk's South African roots, the very wealthy president of South Africa is Joseph Zuma. Just throwing it out there. I have no idea why someone would name a mission after him of course
Unless it is named after a geological rock formation/geographic location like Zuma Rock, which was a prominent defensive point against the Roman Empire, outside the present day Nigerian capital of Abuja in Niger State, Nigeria (https://maps.google.com/maps?ll=9.125556,7.228889&q=9.125556,7.228889&hl=en&t=h&z=12).
« Last Edit: 10/14/2017 11:09 PM by russianhalo117 »

Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #68 on: 10/14/2017 11:37 PM »
FYI
Zuma is an alternate name for a defunct Indian tribe that hunted and gathered in the mid-Rio Grande River valley and northern Chihuahua (Mexico) state.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suma_people

EDIT: Could there be a reference to Boca Chica, near the mouth of the Rio Grande?
« Last Edit: 10/15/2017 12:40 AM by zubenelgenubi »
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Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #69 on: 10/14/2017 11:39 PM »
I think that's enough random meanings for the word Zuma.

Offline su27k

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #70 on: 10/15/2017 04:26 AM »
Does SpaceX need to file papers with FCC if it's a government payload? I thought the filing is only for commercial launches. Kind of defeat the purpose of a secret payload if you have to get public license from FCC.
The PAN and CLIO launches were also procured commercially.

I believe by "procured commercially" it just meant they didn't go through Air Force's EELV procurement, but the customer is still a US government agency, should be similar to launches for NASA LSP.

Offline octavo

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #71 on: 10/15/2017 05:38 AM »
I don't know what this satellite is, but I have seen it called Zuma (not capitals - but could easily be ZUMA as in Z.U.M.A - honestly do not know). So it is a mystery payload, but for the purpose of this thread we can call it codename Zuma.

It is supposed to be riding on a new booster.
From left of field: in reference to Elon Musk's South African roots, the very wealthy president of South Africa is Joseph Zuma. Just throwing it out there. I have no idea why someone would name a mission after him of course

It's Jacob Zuma. The most notable thing about him is how he and his friends, the Gupta family, have managed to capture state owned enterprises and line their pockets with lucrative kick-back contracts. Zuma and Gupta are bywords for corruption and cronyism in local culture.

Make of that what you will :)

Edit: link to all the gory details of looting and corruption for those interested in SA politics.
http://www.gupta-leaks.com/
http://www.gupta-leaks.com/information/jacob-zuma-bio/
« Last Edit: 10/15/2017 05:47 AM by octavo »

Offline CapitalistOppressor

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #72 on: 10/15/2017 06:07 AM »
FYI
Zuma is an alternate name for a defunct Indian tribe that hunted and gathered in the mid-Rio Grande River valley and northern Chihuahua (Mexico) state.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suma_people

EDIT: Could there be a reference to Boca Chica, near the mouth of the Rio Grande?

Or just Zuma Beach in Malibu, an area Elon is known to hang out.  Great spot for surfing

Online vaporcobra

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #73 on: 10/15/2017 06:25 AM »
pls, no more nonsensical name games :'( Gongora already asked nicely, just a handful of posts above.
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Online Skyrocket

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #74 on: 10/15/2017 06:41 AM »
Quote from: reddit user ASTRALsunder
My sources tell me the flight is named ZUMA. The flight is extremely critical because a successful one would mean lots of potential future revenue. Launch date is slated for November 15th due to slight slip in testing.

Fact? Right?

Lots of potential revenue for who? SpaceX? The satellite constellation operator (e.g. Boeing as was speculated up thread)?

The PAN and CLIO satellites were launched via commercial procured launches with Lockheed Martin being the launch customer. This might be similar for ZUMA, with perhaps the manufacturer (Boeing ?) being the customer.  And this could mean potential more launches of this series in the future.

Offline Flying Beaver

"Yup, critical for the operator in this case. They have revenue targets to hit and shareholders to keep happy."
https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/76c3gw/spacex_has_an_approved_license_for_10_nov_launch/doda2gm/

Small stop-gap GEO sat for SES after their recent on-orbit failures...?
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Online vaporcobra

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #76 on: 10/15/2017 07:07 AM »
"Yup, critical for the operator in this case. They have revenue targets to hit and shareholders to keep happy."
https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/76c3gw/spacex_has_an_approved_license_for_10_nov_launch/doda2gm/

Small stop-gap GEO sat for SES after their recent on-orbit failures...?

I sincerely doubt that such a thing would be possible, at least in response to failures less than a year old. It takes years on average for a satellite to go from paper to launch readiness.
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Offline Flying Beaver

"Yup, critical for the operator in this case. They have revenue targets to hit and shareholders to keep happy."
https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/76c3gw/spacex_has_an_approved_license_for_10_nov_launch/doda2gm/

Small stop-gap GEO sat for SES after their recent on-orbit failures...?

I sincerely doubt that such a thing would be possible, at least in response to failures less than a year old. It takes years on average for a satellite to go from paper to launch readiness.

It just hit me cuz they were talking very much at the time about the implications of such failures to their investor base. But aslo they've already moved a couple launches around (SpaceX/Arainespace flip) to mitigate any follow-on effects.

From AMC-9 it was somewhere around 70mil $ in total losses. Does that justify another launch/sat (upwards of 100-200mil) with possible added capabilities?
« Last Edit: 10/15/2017 07:13 AM by Flying Beaver »
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Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #78 on: 10/15/2017 07:47 AM »
Speaking of failures, Orbcomm has a few of their next-generation satellites fail recently. Could it be a urgently-procured launch for replacements?
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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #79 on: 10/15/2017 07:53 AM »
Speaking of failures, Orbcomm has a few of their next-generation satellites fail recently. Could it be a urgently-procured launch for replacements?

The intense level of secrecy around ZUMA suggests otherwise. Any logical payload from the usual suspects would have no reason whatsoever for secrecy like this.
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