Author Topic: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION  (Read 410625 times)

Offline AncientU

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #100 on: 10/15/2017 03:15 PM »
Sounds like itís poll time. Is it even possible for a Block 4 (or 5) F9 to loft a Lunar XPrize to the moon? If so thatís my bet...
Unless some mysterious benefactor has swooped in, none of the xprize competitors seem to have enough money to do this. That's the main mystery of this launch, if you assume it isn't government; what kind of company is low-profile enough to do all this quietly, while having put together enough cash?

SpaceX.
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Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #101 on: 10/15/2017 03:25 PM »
Sounds like itís poll time. Is it even possible for a Block 4 (or 5) F9 to loft a Lunar XPrize to the moon? If so thatís my bet...
Unless some mysterious benefactor has swooped in, none of the xprize competitors seem to have enough money to do this. That's the main mystery of this launch, if you assume it isn't government; what kind of company is low-profile enough to do all this quietly, while having put together enough cash?

SpaceX.

And what would SpaceX gain by doing such a thing while further delaying the flights of their other customers?  Splitting the X-Prize money with the payload team wouldn't get them enough to pay for the expendable parts of the launch vehicle.

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #102 on: 10/15/2017 03:30 PM »
We may need to carve off a thread for the speculation posts. Unless you have a concrete theory with some analysis behind it, maybe just wait and see?  "it feels like X" posts may not be that helpful. Several mods have now said to curb the speculation... Please?
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Offline input~2

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #103 on: 10/15/2017 04:14 PM »
Attached is the FCC license grant.

This extract seems to imply a commercial launch
Quote
SpaceX shall be aware that future non-federal launches will be considered on a case-by-case basis, especially for requests in the band 2200-2290 MHz, and SpaceX shall have no expectations that future launches will be approved.

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #104 on: 10/15/2017 04:17 PM »
Attached is the FCC license grant.

This extract seems to imply a commercial launch
Quote
SpaceX shall be aware that future non-federal launches will be considered on a case-by-case basis, especially for requests in the band 2200-2290 MHz, and SpaceX shall have no expectations that future launches will be approved.

They had the same wording on the NROL-76 and OTV-5 grants.

Offline meekGee

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #105 on: 10/15/2017 04:31 PM »
I really donít why you think this is going to be a commercial satellite when it has a strong smell of a classified government launch.

Because your "smell of a classified launch" is lack of information and a customer rapidly emerging wanting secrecy. The reddit user ( which Chris verified at least part of his story) has repeatedly mentioned that the customer is doing this for revenue, a government-associated flight would already have most of its costs paid for upfront.

Also, why do I have to think what everyone else does, especially in a story bereft of concrete details?

Youíre putting far, far too much credence in one particular Reddit poster.
Isn't that user one if the few sources that even told us Zuma exists?

I agree that "new booster" and "priority" could spell government, but this is very far from certain.
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Offline AJW

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #106 on: 10/15/2017 05:46 PM »
https://www.geekwire.com/2017/spacex-satellite-broadband-network/

"Cooper said this yearís first launch of a prototype satellite would be followed early next year with a second prototype launch, followed by a demonstration period before the start of the operational launch campaign in 2019."

I thought I read that a number of the satellite HW engineers had been brought over from the MSFT 'Zune' team...   Not to imply any similarity in the name since that would be speculation and might get this post booted.

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #107 on: 10/15/2017 05:51 PM »
https://www.geekwire.com/2017/spacex-satellite-broadband-network/

"Cooper said this yearís first launch of a prototype satellite would be followed early next year with a second prototype launch, followed by a demonstration period before the start of the operational launch campaign in 2019."

I thought I read that a number of the satellite HW engineers had been brought over from the MSFT 'Zune' team...   Not to imply any similarity in the name since that would be speculation and might get this post booted.

SpaceX does not have their FCC permits for either the experimental or operational satellites.  Their constellation is being registered in the U.S. so they need those to launch.  They also wouldn't waste an entire F9 flight on a single 500kg internal test satellite.  Please, start thinking whether something is remotely reasonable before posting.
« Last Edit: 10/15/2017 05:52 PM by gongora »

Online Chris Bergin

We may need to carve off a thread for the speculation posts. Unless you have a concrete theory with some analysis behind it, maybe just wait and see?  "it feels like X" posts may not be that helpful. Several mods have now said to curb the speculation... Please?

Yeah, we can use this thread for pre-confirmation and then when confirmed we can have the started Discussion and Update threads.

Offline Star One

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #109 on: 10/15/2017 07:51 PM »
Quote
Jeff Foust @jeff_foust
Replying to @Cosmic_Penguin
ZUMA is more likely to be a codename, not an acronym. But Iím sure you can come up with some creative retronymsÖ

https://mobile.twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/919594402439417856
« Last Edit: 10/15/2017 08:00 PM by Star One »

Offline JHarris85

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #110 on: 10/15/2017 09:24 PM »
Is it a Max-Q Abort test for Dragon 2?

Offline nacnud

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #111 on: 10/15/2017 09:26 PM »
I'm sure they would use a used booster for that.

Offline vapour_nudge

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« Last Edit: 10/15/2017 09:54 PM by vapour_nudge »

Offline Barrie

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #113 on: 10/15/2017 10:47 PM »
It may be worth noting that a competently-chosen codename is completely arbitrary, and not a cryptic clue.

Online Craftyatom

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #114 on: 10/15/2017 11:19 PM »
Is it a Max-Q Abort test for Dragon 2?

The Dragon 2 Abort Test will not be happening until after the first (uncrewed) Dragon 2 orbital flight, and will use the capsule from that flight in order to create high-fidelity data.

So no, this will not be the abort test.  Personally, I think we'll have to wait for a while to find out, otherwise there wouldn't be much point in trying to keep it secret.
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Online Ben the Space Brit

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #115 on: 10/16/2017 11:25 AM »
My feeling (as unlikely as many have said it seems) is that it is an LEO technology test-bed for some new commercial space application. Given the cloak-and-dagger, there is probably a significant issue of patented technologies and possibly even stock market issues that would render pre-launch publicity on the nature of the demonstration potentially stock manipulation.

GLXP would be screaming from the rooftops if the 11/10 launch was one of their competitors and I couldn't see Bigelow being quiet on a 'Genesis-III' mission.
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Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #116 on: 10/16/2017 11:31 AM »
More from the Reddit conversation:
Quote
[Ė]old_sellsword 1 point 15 hours ago
Was this contract something that happened recently, or has it been confirmed for a while but the public just didnít know about it?

[Ė]ASTRALsunder 1 point 2 hours ago
That I do not know, my friend. I did not press my sources for more details. The extent of my knowledge is the flight is named ZUMA/Zuma and the NET is November 15th. Customer contract details and what kind of satellite I do not know. They just emphasized the on-time part of the launch, it would be out of 39A, and on a new booster.
My friends did say CRS-13's new NET is December 4th out of LC-40. SpaceX pitched the idea of a flown booster for CRS-13 to NASA and they will give them an answer in early November.

Offline Craig_VG

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #117 on: 10/16/2017 06:47 PM »
This is truly a random person on reddit, but nonetheless here's what he had to say:

Quote
The Zuma mission involves Northrop Grumman in some capacity. I know this for a fact. They are likely the payload integration service.

teku45 on reddit

EDIT: link in the quote instead of text
« Last Edit: 10/16/2017 06:51 PM by Craig_VG »

Offline Eagandale4114

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #118 on: 10/16/2017 06:49 PM »
From reddit user /u/teku45. He claims that he was/is an intern at SpaceX.

Quote
The Zuma mission involves Northrop Grumman in some capacity. I know this for a fact. They are likely the payload integration service.

Online Kryten

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Re: SpaceX F9 : Zuma : January 7/8, 2018, CCAFS : DISCUSSION
« Reply #119 on: 10/16/2017 06:55 PM »
 Millennium Space System's website has said for some time that a sat using their Aquila M8 bus of around three tons is 'scheduled to fly in 2016 as a GEO platform'; as far as I know this has not yet happened. This would seem like a good candidate as bus for this launch. If we do assume the launch is ultimately for the US government, a delivery-on-orbit contract through Aquila could still jive with the statements about a commercial customer.
« Last Edit: 10/16/2017 06:57 PM by Kryten »

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