Poll

How many SpaceX flights do you anticipate in 2018?

1
0 (0%)
2
0 (0%)
3
0 (0%)
4
0 (0%)
5
0 (0%)
6
0 (0%)
7
0 (0%)
8
0 (0%)
9
0 (0%)
10
1 (0.3%)
11
0 (0%)
12
2 (0.7%)
13
1 (0.3%)
14
0 (0%)
15
1 (0.3%)
16
0 (0%)
17
2 (0.7%)
18
2 (0.7%)
19
3 (1%)
20
15 (5%)
21
4 (1.3%)
22
12 (4%)
23
15 (5%)
24
39 (12.9%)
25
33 (10.9%)
26
22 (7.3%)
27
32 (10.6%)
28
28 (9.3%)
29
20 (6.6%)
30
34 (11.3%)
31
6 (2%)
32
14 (4.6%)
33
4 (1.3%)
34
1 (0.3%)
35
5 (1.7%)
36
2 (0.7%)
37
0 (0%)
38
0 (0%)
39
0 (0%)
40
1 (0.3%)
More than 40!!!
3 (1%)
None (sometimes option 42 is the right answer, but this is not one of those times)
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 302

Voting closed: 01/19/2018 12:22 PM


Author Topic: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018  (Read 21119 times)

Offline Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #80 on: 01/18/2018 10:02 PM »
I think you should make BFR/BFS launches count, even if suborbital, because, you know, I'm sure that Elon has an absurd level of optimism that they will launch a rocket this year that they haven't even finished designing yet.
No.

If you want a "how many BFS will launch this year" do that poll. This is SpaceX launches, of whatever vehicle, but only ones that are attempting to be orbital.

Not changing the rules makes year to year comparisions easier.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Comga

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #81 on: 01/20/2018 07:17 PM »
And the answer is.... (drum roll)
26
Numerically, 26.4 +/-5.2
(Best fit Gaussian mean and moment)
Pretty close to my guess of 27.
YMMV

Last year the consensus was 13.7 +/- 5.2, so the 18 launches was significantly higher. 

edit: Once again, the consensus forms within the first few days and the first fraction of the total votes and never moves significantly.
« Last Edit: 01/20/2018 07:18 PM by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #82 on: 01/21/2018 12:24 AM »
Thanks for the pretty graphs.

Interesting that 30 got so many votes (that's the on paper estimate by SpaceX themselves) as well as 24 (80% of same and also "2 a month" )
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online gongora

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #83 on: 01/21/2018 01:07 AM »
I started in the high 20's, figured they wouldn't get them all launched, got down to 25, then subtracted 1 because I was feeling pessimistic that day.  Now it just looks like I chose two a month  :D

Offline Comga

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #84 on: 01/21/2018 08:49 PM »
The vast majority of us who voted more than a dozen or so were assuming that no rockets blew up.
We probably didn't anticipate the US government "blowing up".  :P
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #85 on: 01/21/2018 10:18 PM »
I can't see it lasting more than a month and that would be extreme... so it may have a 10% impact but not half....
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #86 on: 04/14/2018 07:42 PM »
Time for a little update on the direction of Space Launch cadence.

Over the last 1 year period form this day April 2017 (Note SpaceX had no launches in April 2017) to today is currently at 21 total launches. By the end of the month that total for a 1 year period could climb to 23 if TESS and Bangabandu launch on time. The rate continues to climb. But if the monthly launches stay at an average of 2/month the total for a 1 year period will fluctuate now going into May at 24 +- 1.

As an aside over same period 10 used booster have flown out of total of 23 boosters flown (2 extra for the FH over the launch number). That is a reuse rate of 43.5%. The rate will take a dip before it continues to climb.

Online rockets4life97

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #87 on: 04/19/2018 07:21 PM »
To hit 30, SpaceX will need about 3 a month starting now. They've been doing 2 a month. There looks to be a payload from Vandenberg for a launch every month. So, the question is whether they can get back to 2 launches from Cape Canaveral every month.

Offline high road

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #88 on: 05/14/2018 11:42 AM »
Quote
So if things go well today, and I'm going to touch every form of wood that I can find, we're on track to be double our launch rate of last year, which was a record launch rate for us, and effectively Falcon 9 was the most launched rocket worldwide of 2017.

To keep on said track, SpaceX needs to start launching three a month starting now, and four a month from september onwards.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #89 on: 05/22/2018 08:17 PM »
In the CNBC interview with Gwynne shown today she said SpaceX will do 24 to 28 launches this year, but only about 18 launches next year (due to demand reduction next year).

Offline johnfwhitesell

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #90 on: 05/23/2018 04:04 AM »
In the CNBC interview with Gwynne shown today she said SpaceX will do 24 to 28 launches this year, but only about 18 launches next year (due to demand reduction next year).

Dont they have a manifest stretching for years?  Is there none of that stuff that could be moved forward?

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #91 on: 05/23/2018 06:05 AM »
Dont they have a manifest stretching for years?  Is there none of that stuff that could be moved forward?

Anything on the manifest after 2019 is there because thatís the date the customer requested (not backlog waiting for a launch slot). So Iíd expect in most (even all?) cases the payloads wonít be ready much earlier.

Things will change dramatically once Starlink is ready for launch but thatís not next year.

Online gongora

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #92 on: 05/30/2018 06:33 PM »
Looking at the manifest for the rest of the year and guessing which flights could realistically happen, I'm down to around 24 and up to five more that could happen but I don't really expect them to.  My current guess would be the bottom of the 24-28 range.

Online rockets4life97

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #93 on: 05/31/2018 01:13 PM »
Looking at the manifest for the rest of the year and guessing which flights could realistically happen, I'm down to around 24 and up to five more that could happen but I don't really expect them to.  My current guess would be the bottom of the 24-28 range.

If around 5 flights on the manifest move from 2018 to 2019, then all of a sudden SpaceX's 2019 manifest is as large as 2018's with 24 and ~23 flights. Certainly nothing wrong with that. SpaceX has the extra capacity on the manifest in 2019.

Offline high road

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #94 on: 05/31/2018 02:10 PM »
Looking at the manifest for the rest of the year and guessing which flights could realistically happen, I'm down to around 24 and up to five more that could happen but I don't really expect them to.  My current guess would be the bottom of the 24-28 range.

If around 5 flights on the manifest move from 2018 to 2019, then all of a sudden SpaceX's 2019 manifest is as large as 2018's with 24 and ~23 flights. Certainly nothing wrong with that. SpaceX has the extra capacity on the manifest in 2019.

All the more reason to not prioritize increasing launch cadence beyond 2 a month this year. Any spare personnel could be put to better use getting crew off the ground, recovering fairings, continuing FH and block V validation, etc.

Offline IRobot

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #95 on: 05/31/2018 04:44 PM »
Looking at the manifest for the rest of the year and guessing which flights could realistically happen, I'm down to around 24 and up to five more that could happen but I don't really expect them to.  My current guess would be the bottom of the 24-28 range.

If around 5 flights on the manifest move from 2018 to 2019, then all of a sudden SpaceX's 2019 manifest is as large as 2018's with 24 and ~23 flights. Certainly nothing wrong with that. SpaceX has the extra capacity on the manifest in 2019.
Well, but on the other hand you have customer pressure to launch.
And stockpiling F9's becomes costly at some point.

Offline high road

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #96 on: 06/30/2018 02:05 PM »
Six months in, two a month remains a pretty accurate estimate.

Online oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #97 on: 08/07/2018 04:43 PM »
For the period of 8 Aug 2017 to 7 Aug 2018 there have been 23 launches. This is a very solid 2 a month rate. This speaks for 2018 as being 24 +- 2.

Online gongora

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #98 on: 08/07/2018 05:15 PM »
For the period of 8 Aug 2017 to 7 Aug 2018 there have been 23 launches. This is a very solid 2 a month rate. This speaks for 2018 as being 24 +- 2.

Looking at the manifest I'd probably put it at 23 +/- 3.  They've done a great job maintaining that flight rate over the last year.

Offline DreamyPickle

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #99 on: 08/13/2018 11:54 AM »
Any idea why there appears to be a gap in launches? After Telstar 18 on 08-23 the next launch is 5 weeks later on 09-29 and then nothing with a firm date attached.

Could this be related to installing the crew access arm?

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