Gwynne Shotwell lecture at Stanford 11 Oct 2017

[rockets4life97]

People in other threads here have calculated that the 9m rocket may be too small to launch some GTO payloads with full recovery and without a second tanker launch. If those calculations match reality then going *slightly* bigger could potentially be more profitable, and we may see that. But not 12m bigger until there are paying customers to justify it.

I expect we'll see the same thing happen with raptor that has happened to merlin. Raptor will be refined and uprated such that SpaceX will get much higher than expected performance out of a 9m BFR than the current estimates. I wouldn't be surprised if that is part of the calculation in choosing the 9m over a larger diameter.

[Chris Bergin]

I'll be adding relevant recorded quotes into relevant articles as we go. Probably do a standalone. Got to get out of this mass of launches then I'll sit down and pick out the best quotes.

[spacenut]

Where I come from LA means Lower Alabama. 

I always thought they should start with a short 12m, then add engines and stretch for the real BFR.  Kind of like what they did with F9.  It started out as F5, and was stretched and 9 engines added.  Start with a 12m short booster with 31 of the sub-scale engines they are planning with the 9m rocket so it can launch from the cape.  Then stretch and add another ring of engines for 42+ engines.  The work towards FT Raptor engines for one really huge rocket.  Tooling for 12m would never change just a stretch.  Same with the ITS.  Start smaller and stretch.  9m is ok, it is better than anything else coming down the pike.  BO hasn't got New Glenn off the drawing board, much less New Armstrong. 

[Proponent]

BtW, am I correct in guessing that Boca Chica means "lady's mouth" in Spanish?

[philw1776]

Where I come from LA means Lower Alabama. 

I always thought they should start with a short 12m, then add engines and stretch for the real BFR.  Kind of like what they did with F9.  It started out as F5, and was stretched and 9 engines added.  Start with a 12m short booster with 31 of the sub-scale engines they are planning with the 9m rocket so it can launch from the cape.  Then stretch and add another ring of engines for 42+ engines.  The work towards FT Raptor engines for one really huge rocket.  Tooling for 12m would never change just a stretch.  Same with the ITS.  Start smaller and stretch.  9m is ok, it is better than anything else coming down the pike.  BO hasn't got New Glenn off the drawing board, much less New Armstrong.

I agree.  It seems short sighted to downsize tooling to 9m.  The right-sized for other commercial & govt applications Nova class BFR could simply be short & squat and initially use less engines.  Tank stretch and engine adds could come whenever needed.  The big unknown is just what scale of equipment needs to fit in/be carried in a Mars base construction transport.  A wider BFS also has more cargo options for LEO & lunar.  Guess it's that Elon likes his women & rockets long & lean.

[ThereIWas3]

BtW, am I correct in guessing that Boca Chica means "lady's mouth" in Spanish?

"small mouth"

[whitelancer64]

BtW, am I correct in guessing that Boca Chica means "lady's mouth" in Spanish?

"Chica" can also mean "small." In this context, "small mouth" as in the mouth of a river. More specifically, in this case, the Rio Grande.

[RotoSequence]

If memory serves (buyer beware), there was a third party source claiming that SpaceX was getting quotes for A 15 meter carbon fiber loom. If their tool designers have planned ahead for the next few decades, and the tool can weave cf parts of multiple diameters, they should be able to support their manufacturing needs for all carbon fiber launch vehicles in the foreseeable future.

[philw1776]

If memory serves (buyer beware), there was a third party source claiming that SpaceX was getting quotes for A 15 meter carbon fiber loom. If their tool designers have planned ahead for the next few decades, and the tool can weave cf parts of multiple diameters, they should be able to support their manufacturing needs for all carbon fiber launch vehicles in the foreseeable future.

That old rumor plus others drove NSF expectations that the 2016 ITS would be 15 meters.  It was 12.
I think it's well past its shelf date.  I'd like it to be true though.

[RotoSequence]

If memory serves (buyer beware), there was a third party source claiming that SpaceX was getting quotes for A 15 meter carbon fiber loom. If their tool designers have planned ahead for the next few decades, and the tool can weave cf parts of multiple diameters, they should be able to support their manufacturing needs for all carbon fiber launch vehicles in the foreseeable future.

That old rumor plus others drove NSF expectations that the 2016 ITS would be 15 meters.  It was 12.
I think it's well past its shelf date.  I'd like it to be true though.

A large diameter carbon fiber vehicle design did pan out, though 😁

[MP99]

Guys, priorities!

FH still on for this year? As far as we know, her dates are more accurate, no?

FH will be "Falcon" awesome, but BFR / BFS / Mars is where the excitement is at...

Cheers, Martin

Sent from my Nexus 6 using Tapatalk

[mlindner]

Does LA stand for Los Angeles or Louisiana for the BFR factory?

Apparently both. The consensus in another thread is that initially a manufacturing facility will be built in Los Angeles at the docks. The completed BFR will be barged thru the Panama Canal to Boca Chica for test and launch. Later on this will be changed to newer facilities in Louisiana, again on the waterfront. The completed BFR will be barged from there across the gulf to Boca Chica. This will be the permanent facility.

No. You are as far as I can tell the only one who thinks that she meant Louisiana.

To people in California (the audience) "LA" can only mean Los Angeles. This is universally understood here. I was also in the audience, for the record. The context was (paraphrased) "we can't build it in the factory because transport by ripping up street lights to the LA docks would cost 2.5 million dollars so we are going to build it directly at the LA docks". It can only mean Los Angeles. Definitely not Louisiana. She later said they would build factories at multiple locations, with the implication being directly at each major launch site.