SpaceX Falcon 9 : Telstar 19 Vantage : July 22, 2018 - DISCUSSION

[Scylla]

Instead of waiting, like they usually do, Go Quest and Go Pursuit have left port with Hawk and OCISLY. Any ideas why?

[Michael Baylor]

Instead of waiting, like they usually do, Go Quest and Go Pursuit have left port with Hawk and OCISLY. Any ideas why?

They did leave a few hours later. Nothing was unusual this time.

[Comga]

Is it not now (00:15 7/21 UTC) less than 30 hours until the opening of the window (05:50 7/22 UTC) and still no news?
Either SpaceX is doing worse than planned, and they can't get the rocket ready, or better than previously shown, and they can roll out a Block 5 F9 and launch in less than a day. In the absence of statements from SpaceX or CCAFS one's guess probably reflects one's position more than any facts on the ground.
We shall see, if not today, then tomorrow.

[ZachS09]

Is it not now (00:15 7/21 UTC) less than 30 hours until the opening of the window (05:50 7/22 UTC) and still no news?
Either SpaceX is doing worse than planned, and they can't get the rocket ready, or better than previously shown, and they can roll out a Block 5 F9 and launch in less than a day. In the absence of statements from SpaceX or CCAFS one's guess probably reflects one's position more than any facts on the ground.
We shall see, if not today, then tomorrow.

My personal opinion is that SpaceX likes to put off the rollout until way later.

[Jakusb]

At some point we should see them speed up the whole roll-out and launch procedure in order to get to 24-48h turnaround..
With Block 5 being the final version, what would stop them from starting updating and shortening procedures now?

Taking out Static Fire would obviously be the biggest gain, but likely much also can be gained still in the rest of the procedures.

[KaiFarrimond]

Do we know the exact launch mass of Telstar 19V yet? I've looked around for it but have only found the dry mass.

[ZachS09]

Do we know the exact launch mass of Telstar 19V yet? I've looked around for it but have only found the dry mass.

https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/07/second-falcon-9-block-5-readying-for-static-fire-ahead-of-telstar-19v-launch/

"Telstar 19 Vantage weighs approximately 5.4 metric tons, which means the first stage will be able to land on Of Course I Still Love You."

[KaiFarrimond]

"Telstar 19 Vantage weighs approximately 5.4 metric tons, which means the first stage will be able to land on Of Course I Still Love You."

Oops, must have missed that, thanks!

[gongora]

Do we know the exact launch mass of Telstar 19V yet? I've looked around for it but have only found the dry mass.

https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/07/second-falcon-9-block-5-readying-for-static-fire-ahead-of-telstar-19v-launch/

"Telstar 19 Vantage weighs approximately 5.4 metric tons, which means the first stage will be able to land on Of Course I Still Love You."

I doubt that's the real mass.

[Alexphysics]

Spaceflight Now is reporting this sat's mass is 7075kg, the heaviest GTO sat ever. Link to article: https://spaceflightnow.com/2018/07/21/record-setting-commercial-satellite-awaits-blastoff-from-cape-canaveral/

And the quotes:

The extra lift capability of the Falcon 9 Block 5 will allow the rocket to send the nearly 15,600-pound (7,075-kilogram) Telstar 19 VANTAGE satellite toward its operational perch in geostationary orbit more than 22,000 miles (nearly 36,000 kilometers) over the equator.

Telstar 19 VANTAGE will become the heaviest commercial communications satellite ever launched, eclipsing a record set by the TerreStar 1 telecom spacecraft, which weighed 15,234 pounds (6,910 kilograms) when it rode an Ariane 5 rocket into orbit July 2009.

It is also set to be the heaviest satellite ever launched by SpaceX into geostationary transfer orbit, the drop-off for most commercial telecom payloads.

At that mass, even for a Block 5 it seems too heavy, I think they won't launch it directly into GTO, probably sub-GTO like Hispasat 30w6.

[gongora]

Spaceflight Now is reporting this sat's mass is 7075kg, the heaviest GTO sat ever. Link to article: https://spaceflightnow.com/2018/07/21/record-setting-commercial-satellite-awaits-blastoff-from-cape-canaveral/

At last the mythical 7-ton sat Gwynne mentioned shows up 

[wannamoonbase]

I was shocked when I read the spaceflightnow article.  That’s huge and larger than the FH Arabsat 6.

7000 kg on a F9 with recovery, this is impressive.

[gongora]

I was shocked when I read the spaceflightnow article.  That’s huge and larger than the FH Arabsat 6.

7000 kg on a F9 with recovery, this is impressive.

It has more total mass than other comsats with all of that fuel, but SES-12 probably has significantly bigger dry mass.  Different customers make different trade-offs.

[John Alan]

Thinking out loud... 
IF the bird is set up to do it's first orbit raising burn at first apogee... enough to get it's perigee up out of the weeds... 
And this always was the plan as built... The bird IS it's own "3rd" stage of sorts...

AND if the 2nd stage basically reenters at first perigee encountered with no serious reentry burn employed...

We may never really know the real performance numbers... as I believe most orbit tracking sources need at least one full orbit to publish them... 

We all really like to see those GTO-xxxx numbers and awe at how good a rocket did with yyyy kg...
BUT... those days of having apples to apples numbers to compare rocket performance may be over...

Reason... we really don't know how much that first bird burn did to raise it's orbit when it's done so soon... 

BUT... it's one way and a smart way to make a little rocket haul big things up at low cost overall.. 

[gongora]

AND if the 2nd stage basically reenters at first perigee encountered with no serious reentry burn employed...

SpaceX usually doesn't immediately deorbit the second stage on GTO flights.

[John Alan]

AND if the 2nd stage basically reenters at first perigee encountered with no serious reentry burn employed...

SpaceX usually doesn't immediately deorbit the second stage on GTO flights.

True... I agree...
BUT if the 2nd stage does not make it around a few laps... Then we will know that the bird really helped itself in the initial published orbit figures we see... 

[gongora]

AND if the 2nd stage basically reenters at first perigee encountered with no serious reentry burn employed...

SpaceX usually doesn't immediately deorbit the second stage on GTO flights.

True... I agree...
BUT if the 2nd stage does not make it around a few laps... Then we will know that the bird really helped itself in the initial published orbit figures we see... 

If SpaceX doesn't do a deorbit burn then the second stage will be up there for a while.  It's not going to deploy the satellite on a suborbital trajectory.

[Tomness]

I was shocked when I read the spaceflightnow article.  That’s huge and larger than the FH Arabsat 6.

7000 kg on a F9 with recovery, this is impressive.

It has more total mass than other comsats with all of that fuel, but SES-12 probably has significantly bigger dry mass.  Different customers make different trade-offs.

Gwen has said they have sand bagged their figures before. You think F9 B5 got legs? Hit recovery on GTO-1800 on 7000kg. Or you think they going for sub geosynchronous transfer orbit?

[John Alan]

AND if the 2nd stage basically reenters at first perigee encountered with no serious reentry burn employed...

SpaceX usually doesn't immediately deorbit the second stage on GTO flights.

True... I agree...
BUT if the 2nd stage does not make it around a few laps... Then we will know that the bird really helped itself in the initial published orbit figures we see... 

If SpaceX doesn't do a deorbit burn then the second stage will be up there for a while.  It's not going to deploy the satellite on a suborbital trajectory.

7000kg gross and ASDS recovery... Single stick F9 B5...
IMHO is only possible with some serious delta-v trade into the bird handling it's final shove before first perigee or it's maybe lost... 
And 2nd stage may come down on it's own sooner then later this time...
Guess we will see... <popcorn>... 

Gwen has said they have sand bagged their figures before. You think F9 B5 got legs? Hit recovery on GTO-1800 on 7000kg. Or you think they going for sub geosynchronous transfer orbit?

I think at the moment of sat separation... I believe it could be very sub GTO...
The 19V was maybe programmed to do a initial burn at very first apogee to raise it's perigee to something more typical.
IF the first tracking numbers come in showing 19V in say a GTO-1800 orbit AND S2 is not found... then I may have been right... 

[Alexphysics]

Perigee is usually at LEO, usually high up at least above 200km, high enough for the second stage to be in that orbit for a few months at least. No reason to think that this particular mission will have a lower perigee than others, it will be as normal as usual, what's going to be lower than usual will probably be the apogee, but that doesn't affect to the rate of decay of the orbit (Well, technically it affects, but because a lower apogee means a shorter orbital period so the second stage will pass more times through the perigee in less time, but it will also pass through the perigee at a lower velocity, so who knows if it really affects it in the end or not).