Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5  (Read 1116669 times)

Offline smoliarm

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 839
  • Moscow, Russia
  • Liked: 727
  • Likes Given: 626
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #740 on: 08/06/2020 09:50 am »
I just counted through the 2021 launch manifest and discovered that it totals 24 without any Starlink launches. When did SpaceX amass this large list for 2021?

...

Well, partially it's because several Falcon-9 launches slipped from 2020 to 2021.
E.g., in January there were 4 or 5 launches scheduled from VAFB "in H2 2020" - all but one are now in 2021.

Quote
In order to get Starlink launched SpaceX is going to need Starship sooner rather than later.

- if I understand correctly, they are going to make 14-16 starlink launches and then will be a pause.
They have to complete beta-testing and after that - they need time to implement - whatever they learned - to satellites and ground stations. After that they have to make another F9 salvo for starlinks to finish the first part of constellation (~1500 sats or whatever they decide enough). And again - after that there will be a pause in starlink launches.

It is my understanding that beyond that - any plans are very *blurry and shaky*...
So the bottom line (in my guess):
* hopefully they finish the first part (1500 sats) of constellation by the end of 2021.
* right now in is too early to "calculate" launch plans beyond 2021, especially for Starlink.

It is because we do not know two main parameters
1. we do not know structure and size of the next parts of constellation.
Experience shows that they change plans easily (and fast :)
2. we do not know structure and size of launchers fleet of SpaceX in 2022.

The options are
* F9 is still the *working horse* for Starlink;
* With a fair bit of luck - the extended fairing is ready and Starlink launches switch to FH with a hundred-plus sats per launch;
* With a massive amount of optimism - SS/SH are ready for Starlink launches.

for these three options it is going to be quite different story for Starlink deployment.

Offline gongora

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10815
  • US
  • Liked: 15025
  • Likes Given: 6586
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #741 on: 08/07/2020 09:38 pm »
Space Force awards National Security Space Launch Phase 2 launch service contracts to ULA, SpaceX
Quote
Concurrent with this announcement, the SMC Launch Enterprise, in collaboration with the NRO, will order the first three missions assigned under Phase 2. ... SpaceX has been assigned USSF-67, scheduled for launch in fourth quarter fiscal year 2022. Future launch services will be placed on subsequent Task Orders by mission and will be publicly announced upon issuance. Task orders for the launch service support and launch service contracts will be issued to ULA for $337 million and SpaceX for $316 million for launch services to meet fiscal year 2022 launch dates.

Details of the mission are currently unknown, including launch vehicle and orbit.

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5322
  • Florida
  • Liked: 5027
  • Likes Given: 1628
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #742 on: 08/08/2020 08:40 pm »
Space Force awards National Security Space Launch Phase 2 launch service contracts to ULA, SpaceX
Quote
Concurrent with this announcement, the SMC Launch Enterprise, in collaboration with the NRO, will order the first three missions assigned under Phase 2. ... SpaceX has been assigned USSF-67, scheduled for launch in fourth quarter fiscal year 2022. Future launch services will be placed on subsequent Task Orders by mission and will be publicly announced upon issuance. Task orders for the launch service support and launch service contracts will be issued to ULA for $337 million and SpaceX for $316 million for launch services to meet fiscal year 2022 launch dates.

Details of the mission are currently unknown, including launch vehicle and orbit.
But for this dollar amount it sounds like an FH launch with possible first time vertical payload integration. One of the larger payloads that cannot be lifted by the ULA backup plan of an Atlas V.

Offline gongora

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10815
  • US
  • Liked: 15025
  • Likes Given: 6586
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #743 on: 08/08/2020 08:46 pm »
Space Force awards National Security Space Launch Phase 2 launch service contracts to ULA, SpaceX
Quote
Concurrent with this announcement, the SMC Launch Enterprise, in collaboration with the NRO, will order the first three missions assigned under Phase 2. ... SpaceX has been assigned USSF-67, scheduled for launch in fourth quarter fiscal year 2022. Future launch services will be placed on subsequent Task Orders by mission and will be publicly announced upon issuance. Task orders for the launch service support and launch service contracts will be issued to ULA for $337 million and SpaceX for $316 million for launch services to meet fiscal year 2022 launch dates.

Details of the mission are currently unknown, including launch vehicle and orbit.
But for this dollar amount it sounds like an FH launch with possible first time vertical payload integration. One of the larger payloads that cannot be lifted by the ULA backup plan of an Atlas V.

We have no idea what the dollar amount for that flight is.

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5322
  • Florida
  • Liked: 5027
  • Likes Given: 1628
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #744 on: 08/08/2020 09:39 pm »
Space Force awards National Security Space Launch Phase 2 launch service contracts to ULA, SpaceX
Quote
Concurrent with this announcement, the SMC Launch Enterprise, in collaboration with the NRO, will order the first three missions assigned under Phase 2. ... SpaceX has been assigned USSF-67, scheduled for launch in fourth quarter fiscal year 2022. Future launch services will be placed on subsequent Task Orders by mission and will be publicly announced upon issuance. Task orders for the launch service support and launch service contracts will be issued to ULA for $337 million and SpaceX for $316 million for launch services to meet fiscal year 2022 launch dates.

Details of the mission are currently unknown, including launch vehicle and orbit.
But for this dollar amount it sounds like an FH launch with possible first time vertical payload integration. One of the larger payloads that cannot be lifted by the ULA backup plan of an Atlas V.

We have no idea what the dollar amount for that flight is.
Thanks I just saw your post in the SpaceX General thread.

Being the SF budgeted amount for these launches. The Budgeted amounts have to be large enough to cover any contracted LV that could be contracted to do the mission. This includes a possible DIVH or something else as expensive but also other unique services needed during processing and nothing to do with the size of LV. The number assigned to the payload project as USSF-67 means the payload project started a significant time ago and received a lower number than one of the other two awarded to ULA: USSF-106 (younger payload project) and USSF-51 (older payload project). The number is an association to the order in which the payload project was initiated not the order of launch, size, orbit, or type. An older number may also just be because the project was stalled by lack of budget and nothing to do with technical complexity. Trying to infer something based on the number will lead down a path of a lot of false assumptions.

So any actual SpaceX dollar amounts being awarded for this mission are at this time unknown. As well as the actual LV and even what coast it will be launching from.

Offline vaporcobra

Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #745 on: 08/11/2020 12:49 am »
No thread that I can see yet for Starlink-11 or -12 so posting here: SpaceX just opened media accreditation for Starlink-12 NET September 2020. Deadline dates point towards sometime earlier in the month, schedules permitting.

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5322
  • Florida
  • Liked: 5027
  • Likes Given: 1628
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #746 on: 08/12/2020 10:14 pm »
With SpaceX saying they have been manufacturing Starlink sats at a rate of 120/month since at least April or May there are some 5+ sets of 60 sats sitting in storage. So likely if possible they will launch as many Starlink launches as they can as fast as they can. Which speaks to L11 launch being possibly in August with L12 in early September.

There are boosters available even if some have to be cycled at 30 days or less between launch. SpaceX has indicated this is possible. But launch rate in reality has not pushed the edge of capability yet. But if the intent is to fly L11 using 1051 there may be some difficulty in getting L11 launched in August. But there are some lower usage boosters available to launch L11 since several of the paying customers slipped the launch dates out. But this would require that they use a slightly more used booster than previous speculation or scheduled. SpaceX has a current booster delima and it will have to be settled by a much faster turnaround of boosters (<30 days) if they want to keep using high usage boosters for Starlink.

I await the scheduled specifications on which boosters that SpaceX designantes for which launch and when.

Offline Steven Pietrobon

  • Member
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 39821
  • Adelaide, Australia
    • Steven Pietrobon's Space Archive
  • Liked: 33662
  • Likes Given: 10409
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #747 on: 08/14/2020 04:53 am »
Kleos Space partners with Elon Musk’s SpaceX to launch 2nd satellite cluster
Stephen Kuper
14 August 2020

https://www.spaceconnectonline.com.au/launch/4481-kleos-space-partners-with-elon-musk-s-spacex-to-launch-2nd-satellite-cluster

ASX-listed Kleos Space has announced the signing of a contract with Spaceflight to carry and launch a cluster of Kleos satellites on the SpaceX Falcon 9 launch scheduled for mid-2021.
...
SpaceX, founded by Elon Musk, has developed a reusable rocket and launch system to significantly reduce the cost of space flight. Spaceflight, a rideshare launch provider, has been engaged by Kleos for this launch aboard SpaceX Falcon 9.
...
Kleos has named this cluster the ‘Polar Vigilance’ Mission – a cluster of four satellites, launched into a 500-kilometre sun synchronous orbit.
« Last Edit: 08/14/2020 04:54 am by Steven Pietrobon »
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 56658
  • UK
    • Plan 28
  • Liked: 93591
  • Likes Given: 43604
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #748 on: 08/20/2020 09:48 am »
https://twitter.com/emrekelly/status/1296382085750575104

Quote
Yet another contract for SpaceX: @SES_Satellites says it has selected Falcon 9 to launch four 03b comms / internet satellites from the Cape starting next year.

At this rate, SpaceX will have launched at least 13 missions for SES by the mid-2020s.

Offline bcanon23

  • Member
  • Posts: 5
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #749 on: 08/20/2020 10:04 am »
The SES press release for the newly awarded launch of four additional O3b mPower satellites to MEO as of 2021 as mentioned in previous post.
https://www.ses.com/press-release/ses-picks-spacex-launch-four-additional-o3b-mpower-satellites

Offline vaporcobra

Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #750 on: 08/20/2020 10:18 pm »
SpaceX has opened media accreditation for "the fourteenth Starlink mission" (Starlink V1 L13) NET September 2020.

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5322
  • Florida
  • Liked: 5027
  • Likes Given: 1628
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #751 on: 08/21/2020 02:04 am »
With Starlink L14 in a possible October time frame. May need to add 3 or 4 more Starlink launches to the 2020 manifest schedule.

4 may be a reach since there are a lot of launches other than Starlink piling up into October thru December 2020.

So the suggestion would be to keep a forward scheduling of next 3 Starlinks. Whenever the next Starlink to launch for the year drops below 3 add 2 to the list. I expect the addition of 2 more Starlink launches for 2020 than what is currently in the 2020 manifest if 2 more Starlinks are at least launched through the end of Sept.

But having more than 4 Starlink listed when the dates are so fluid because of being second class to other launches becomes a little bit of a clutter. At worst you are adding 2 more to the manifest once a month. The alternate is to add 4 but still wait for the list to get below 3 to add the next 4.

Offline vaporcobra

Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #752 on: 08/21/2020 02:08 am »
With Starlink L14 in a possible October time frame. May need to add 3 or 4 more Starlink launches to the 2020 manifest schedule.

4 may be a reach since there are a lot of launches other than Starlink piling up into October thru December 2020.

So the suggestion would be to keep a forward scheduling of next 3 Starlinks. Whenever the next Starlink to launch for the year drops below 3 add 2 to the list. I expect the addition of 2 more Starlink launches for 2020 than what is currently in the 2020 manifest if 2 more Starlinks are at least launched through the end of Sept.

But having more than 4 Starlink listed when the dates are so fluid because of being second class to other launches becomes a little bit of a clutter. At worst you are adding 2 more to the manifest once a month. The alternate is to add 4 but still wait for the list to get below 3 to add the next 4.

Agreed. Based on SpaceX's accreditation process, they're absolutely aiming for at least two Starlink launches per month for the rest of 2020 (and probably forever lol), so agreed. Probably safe to add at least 2-4 more to NET Q4 2020.

Offline gongora

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10815
  • US
  • Liked: 15025
  • Likes Given: 6586
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #753 on: 08/21/2020 03:21 am »
I will add Starlink flights as needed.  I'm not concerned with adding a set number, or filling a calendar year.

It's hard to tell how many external payloads they'll have the rest of the year.  I wouldn't be surprised if several of the flights slip into 2021.  Q4 will be busy but maybe not quite as busy as the manifest looks now.

Offline gongora

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10815
  • US
  • Liked: 15025
  • Likes Given: 6586
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #754 on: 08/26/2020 06:18 pm »
https://www.newswire.com/news/spacex-to-launch-masten-lunar-mission-in-2022-21199972

SpaceX to Launch Masten Lunar Mission in 2022
Launch to deliver Masten's lunar lander carrying NASA and commercial payloads.

PRESS RELEASE  UPDATED: AUG 26, 2020 12:34 CDT
Masten's XL-1 Lunar Lander
MOJAVE, Calif., August 26, 2020 (Newswire.com) - Masten Space Systems announced today that it has selected SpaceX to launch Masten Mission One (MM1). As part of MM1, Masten’s lunar lander will deliver nine NASA-sponsored science and technology demonstration experiments and several commercial payloads to the lunar south pole.

“Having SpaceX’s proven launch success behind us is not only great for us, but it’s great for our customers,” said Masten chief executive officer, Sean Mahoney. “We share a common vision with SpaceX, and that makes this more than a partnership. It’s more like a dream team.”

Masten’s first mission to the Moon, MM1 is a collaboration with NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) Project Office. The Masten XL-1 lunar lander is scheduled to touch down on the lunar south pole in 2022, carrying a suite of NASA-sponsored scientific instruments and various payloads from commercial space customers.

“We are thrilled to be launching Masten’s Mission One to the Moon in 2022,” said SpaceX Senior Director of Commercial Sales Stephanie Bednarek. “SpaceX was founded upon the goal of extending humanity’s reach beyond Earth, and it’s exciting to take part in a mission with many partners who share the same vision.”

Masten’s additional capacity on its first mission to the Moon provides opportunities for commercial partners to access the resource-rich lunar south pole. If your company is interested in sending a payload to the Moon, you can learn more at www.MastenMoon.com.

About Masten Space Systems

Mojave, California-based Masten Space Systems wrangles rocket-powered landing from sci-fi into reality, connecting the steps from napkin, to lab, to test site and all the way to the surface of the Moon. For over 15 years, the Masten team has torn down barriers to space, working with partners of all types to create value in the space ecosystem. Masten is the partner of choice for fellow innovators and explorers who are changing how we access and use space, bringing the benefits of space to the benefit of humans here on Earth.

About NASA’s CLPS Program

NASA is working with several American companies to deliver science and technology to the lunar surface through the Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) initiative. These companies of varying sizes will bid on delivering payloads for NASA, including payload integration and operations, launching from Earth and landing on the surface of the Moon. Under the Artemis program, early commercial delivery missions will perform science experiments, test technologies and demonstrate capabilities to help NASA explore the Moon and prepare for human missions.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 56658
  • UK
    • Plan 28
  • Liked: 93591
  • Likes Given: 43604
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #755 on: 08/26/2020 06:34 pm »
Masten says December:

https://twitter.com/mastenspace/status/1298689977841221633

Quote
WE'VE GOT A RIDE! We're thrilled to announce our partnership with @SpaceX to take Masten Mission One (MM1) to the Moon in December 2022. Thanks to @elonmusk, @gwynneshotwell, and the entire SpaceX team!

edit/gongora: Further discussion of the mission should go in https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=51813.0
« Last Edit: 08/27/2020 03:07 am by gongora »

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5322
  • Florida
  • Liked: 5027
  • Likes Given: 1628
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #756 on: 08/31/2020 08:23 pm »
With Starliner date from NASA of NET December 2021. Has anyone with access to the NASA ISS Visiting Vehicles schedules see if a SpaxeX Crew -3  has been added for October 2021?

Offline klod

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 114
  • Liked: 56
  • Likes Given: 418

Offline gongora

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10815
  • US
  • Liked: 15025
  • Likes Given: 6586
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #758 on: 09/01/2020 06:55 pm »
According to this schedule SpaceX Crew-3 - mid August 2021
https://sma.nasa.gov/docs/default-source/sma-disciplines-and-programs/smsr/smsr-intergrated-master-schedule_24feb2020.pdf

I'm waiting for the next round of schedule updates from that document or some other source before I worry much about the Commercial Crew dates in the second half of 2021.

Offline Ken the Bin

  • Inactive
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3585
  • US Pacific Time Zone
  • Liked: 6450
  • Likes Given: 7510
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #759 on: 09/01/2020 07:52 pm »
According to this schedule SpaceX Crew-3 - mid August 2021
https://sma.nasa.gov/docs/default-source/sma-disciplines-and-programs/smsr/smsr-intergrated-master-schedule_24feb2020.pdf

I'm waiting for the next round of schedule updates from that document or some other source before I worry much about the Commercial Crew dates in the second half of 2021.

Even though the date in the document name is February 24, the actual content in the document is from July 28, 2020.
This account is inactive as of the end of 2024.

Tags:
 

Advertisement NovaTech
Advertisement
Advertisement Margaritaville Beach Resort South Padre Island
Advertisement Brady Kenniston
Advertisement NextSpaceflight
Advertisement Nathan Barker Photography
1